# New Jersey as a bellweather for 2014? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 29, 2013, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514 "2013-10-29T00:51:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![deltasigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e5b9ba/32.png) [@deltasigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/deltasigma)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/21 "2013-10-29T23:25:49Z")
Parties don’t matter as long as you have unregulated lobbyists. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2013, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/22 "2013-10-29T23:43:05Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Then let’s have [proportional representation](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proportional_representation) and a **multi** -party system. Half a dozen or so parties in play **all** keeping each other honest would make for a more honest system overall, wouldn’t it? There must be some sort of rule/law we can promulgate that says something like, “As any thread about political parties approaches n post, the probability of **BrainGlutton** posting about proportional representation approaches 100%.” ---
**Author:** ![deltasigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e5b9ba/32.png) [@deltasigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/deltasigma)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2013, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/23 "2013-10-30T00:05:15Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > There must be some sort of rule/law we can promulgate that says something like, “As any thread about political parties approaches n post, the probability of **BrainGlutton** posting about proportional representation approaches 100%.” I don’t come to this dark corner of the forum enough to get that, but speaking of probabilities, aren’t we overdue for some sort of Nazi comparison? 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2013, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/24 "2013-10-30T00:11:14Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > There must be some sort of rule/law we can promulgate that says something like, “As any thread about political parties approaches n post, the probability of **BrainGlutton** posting about proportional representation approaches 100%.” Just so long as it’s not warped into a “You lose!” law like Godwin’s has been. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2013, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/25 "2013-10-30T00:12:37Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Which is why we need a better conservative party. We already have the Constitution Party, the America First Party and the Libertarian Party. What **kind** of better conservative party do we need? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2013, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/26 "2013-10-30T00:13:44Z")
> [@deltasigma](#): > > I don’t come to this dark corner of the forum enough to get that, but speaking of probabilities, aren’t we overdue for some sort of Nazi comparison? 🆒 :mad: I hate New Jersey Nazis! ---
**Author:** ![deltasigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e5b9ba/32.png) [@deltasigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/deltasigma)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2013, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/27 "2013-10-30T00:18:33Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > :mad: I hate New Jersey Nazis! If you’re not on a VPN, you should be careful about how you talk about our state police. 😃 edit: actually, since that profiling scandal, they’re supposedly a lot better. IDK. I don’t think I’ve been on the turnpike in years. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2013, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/28 "2013-10-30T02:55:39Z")
> [@LavenderBlue](#): > > Moderate Reps have a shot here in NJ. But the GOP isn’t really running moderates. Christie is wining for gov because he’s a moderate on social issue like choice and gay rights. > > My local NJ congressperson is Rodney Frelinhuysen. He’s a Rep but he’s a also a fairly moderate Rep. He has a [50% percent rating from NRLC on abortion.](http://www.ontheissues.org/Notebook/Note_06n-NRLC.htm) The NRA gives him a [D which makes pro gun control.](http://www.ontheissues.org/NJ/Rodney_Frelinghuysen.htm#Gun_Control) He would lose in many other areas of the country other than NJ. He would be defeated by either a Dem or a more right wing Rep. No he is not: he is another Republican House lunatic. There’s only one moderate Republican in the House of Representatives and his name is Peter King. Sure, Mr. King supported [IRA terrorists](http://www.salon.com/2010/12/17/peter_king_terrorism/). But he’s still a moderate by GOP standards. King tried hard to end the government shutdown: [saying that he could easily gather 25 Republican votes](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/house-dems-time-for-moderate-republicans-to-walk-the-walk) to support the Continuing Resolution (CR). In the end he could only put together [12 votes](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/twelve-republicans-vote-nay-on-house-gop-funding-bill), many of whom believed that the CR didn’t go far enough. Old Rodney was not on the list. Michelle Bachmann and Louie Gohmert were among the not-crazy-enough crew. Anybody who holds the economy hostage in exchange for repeal on the Affordable Care Act and when that doesn’t fly, budget cuts is more concerned with preening than with governing. And they certainly don’t qualify as moderates. Rodney Frelinhuysen is a hostage taker: he can’t run away from his voting record. Supporters of Republican attempts to cut and gut the economy need to be identified, called out and yes voted out. Like I said earlier, the professional class has every reason to support sound and sane national governance. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2013, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/29 "2013-10-30T03:22:01Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > King tried hard to end the government shutdown: [saying that he could easily gather 25 Republican votes](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/house-dems-time-for-moderate-republicans-to-walk-the-walk) to support the Continuing Resolution (CR). In the end he could only put together [12 votes](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/twelve-republicans-vote-nay-on-house-gop-funding-bill), many of whom believed that the CR didn’t go far enough. Old Rodney was not on the list. Michelle Bachmann and Louie Gohmert were among the not-crazy-enough crew. My links and claims are messed up. Let me try again: King and 19 Republicans claimed they would vote for a clean CR to end the shutdown and stop trampling on the economy. But they would not sign a discharge petition that would permit the clean CR to go up for a vote. [http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2013/10/06/2738461/peter-king-republican-shutdown/](http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2013/10/06/2738461/peter-king-republican-shutdown/) Here’s the list from Oct 1 of Republicans who said that they would support a clean CR. Recall that AFAIK, none of them would sign a petition that would bring a clean CR up for a vote. So their convictions were flaccid. Nonetheless, they were willing to tell reporters that _if_ somebody else would bring such a bill to the floor, that they would vote for it. : [http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2013/10/02/2721971/boehner-could-reopen-government/](http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2013/10/02/2721971/boehner-could-reopen-government/) Rodney Frelinhuysen was too beholden to the Tea Party to join this list. Only a single NJ Republican representative expressed support: Rep. Jon Runyan (R-N.J.): “Enough is enough. Put a clean [continuing resolution] on the floor and let’s get on with the business we were sent to do." [Burlington County Times, 10/1/13] Well said Representative Runyan. But you still voted for CRs that were total nonstarters. And you wouldn’t sign a petition to bring a clean CR up for a vote AFAIK. Talk is cheap: it’s actions that matter. Moderate Republicans once roamed the great state of New Jersey. But today they are [cryptids](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jersey_Devil), much discussed but never confirmed. ---
**Author:** ![deltasigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e5b9ba/32.png) [@deltasigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/deltasigma)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2013, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/30 "2013-10-30T03:54:30Z")
I think what we’re seeing is the same problem that viruses run into. The most virulent/deadly strains kill their hosts the quickest but as a result aren’t able to spread to other hosts as easily so they tend to die out. That’s the Tea Party. They took over the GOP like a plague but looks like they have just about succeeded in killing their host before they could gain any real power. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2013, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/31 "2013-10-30T11:34:29Z")
ON the topic of the OP… New Jersey may be interesting but I don’t think it truly qualifies for bellwether status. That title more aptly falls on Virginia. New Jersey is, in the end, a northeastern blue state with a leavening of moderate republicans. Virginia has been a southern red state now trending purple. Hell, for a while the Tea Party was quite the thing there. But the current fortunes of Cuccinelli in the governors race against a wounded dove of McAuliffe is a sign that things are changing in the Old Dominion. After voting for the R candidate for the presidency at the rate of: 1996 47/45 2000 53/44 2004 54/46 in the last two it’s switched: 2008 53/46 2012 51/47 That’s an average R win of 5.6% to an average D win of 5.5% - a 10%+ percent swing. Even if you chalk up 2008 to Obama fever that still leaves 2012 as a true test of where it’s going. And I think that’s 13 electoral votes that the Republican Party isn’t getting back anytime soon. Follow that with the leftward move of congressional districts in NoVA and things could indeed get hectic there. Still, the governors race is being perceived as a battle between a ‘true’ conservative in Cuccinelli and the Clinton brigade in McAuliffe. With that on the line the narrative for a McAuliffe win will be perceived as a step towards Hillary’s eventual declaration of candidacy. That’s no small stakes for the Republican Party. ---
**Author:** ![LavenderBlue](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e95f7d/32.png) [@LavenderBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LavenderBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2013, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/32 "2013-10-30T13:19:13Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > No he is not: he is another Republican House lunatic. There’s only one moderate Republican in the House of Representatives and his name is Peter King. Sure, Mr. King supported [IRA terrorists](http://www.salon.com/2010/12/17/peter_king_terrorism/). But he’s still a moderate by GOP standards. King tried hard to end the government shutdown: [saying that he could easily gather 25 Republican votes](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/house-dems-time-for-moderate-republicans-to-walk-the-walk) to support the Continuing Resolution (CR). In the end he could only put together [12 votes](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/twelve-republicans-vote-nay-on-house-gop-funding-bill), many of whom believed that the CR didn’t go far enough. Old Rodney was not on the list. Michelle Bachmann and Louie Gohmert were among the not-crazy-enough crew. > > Anybody who holds the economy hostage in exchange for repeal on the Affordable Care Act and when that doesn’t fly, budget cuts is more concerned with preening than with governing. And they certainly don’t qualify as moderates. > > Rodney Frelinhuysen is a hostage taker: he can’t run away from his voting record. Supporters of Republican attempts to cut and gut the economy need to be identified, called out and yes voted out. Like I said earlier, the professional class has every reason to support sound and sane national governance. I agree he’s an ass. I called his office to yell at him over the shutdown. I have not voted for him in six elections so far. But at least he’s sort of pro-choice on some level and not beloved by the NRA. My point was that he could not get elected with such a record in many other ostensibly Republican districts in other states. Christie is about to get re-elected with a similar record on social issues. NJ is no more a Republican state than current NYC mayor Bloomberg is a Republican. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2013, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/33 "2013-10-31T11:34:43Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Those days are past. Both the professional class and NJ have been trending Democratic for a while. If NJ is a true swing state in 2016, then the Democrats have lost the election. Admittedly it will take a while for the **well-healed** of [Morris County](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morris_county,_nj) to wake up and realize that their interests are not served by a Federal government in crisis, both perpetual and wholly artificial. Thanks to Obamacare, no doubt. 🙂 (What’s up with the “-ea-” misspellings in this thread?) ---
**Author:** ![deltasigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e5b9ba/32.png) [@deltasigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/deltasigma)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2013, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/34 "2013-10-31T14:38:18Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Thanks to Obamacare, no doubt. 🙂 > > (What’s up with the “-ea-” misspellings in this thread?) I fessed up to that early on but didn’t ask for it to be corrected. I figured it was my problem. If it’s annoying though I’ll ask. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2013, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/35 "2013-10-31T19:59:10Z")
> [@Avulsed Brainstem](#): > > Can’t come soon enough - not because of any particularly loathing for the current party (although I have plenty of that) but because truly balanced opposing parties are what make things work, and work out, in the long run. I agree. Every time I get an inclination to hope for the complete destruction of the Republican party, I think of the DC government, and become glad that we don’t have a defacto one party system, even if the Democrats were that one party. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2013, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/36 "2013-10-31T20:43:35Z")
In Trenton there stands a bar Where the bums come from near and from far They come by bus, they come by car The lousy bums of New Jersey! ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2013, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/37 "2013-11-01T00:15:26Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > I agree. Every time I get an inclination to hope for the complete destruction of the Republican party, I think of the DC government, and become glad that we don’t have a defacto one party system, even if the Democrats were that one party. The Whigs self-destructed and the Republicans rose from its ashes. If the Republicans suffer electoral collapse, it won’t be the end of the two party system. So yes, we should hope for their collapse and replacement with a party that cares about facts and doesn’t take the economy and good credit of the United States hostage for their petty concerns. And we _know_ they are petty concerns, since they dropped Obamacare opposition like a hot potato and promptly grabbed something else when their first demand wouldn’t fly. The Republican Party of the 1900s, 1910s, 1920s, 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, 1960s, 1970s or even 1980s would be fine. This isn’t about ideology so much as patriotism, the public interest and neuro-stability. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/38 "2013-11-06T04:19:24Z")
Watching Christie’s victory speech tonight I had several thoughts come to mind. [ol] [li]This fella sure seems like a regular guy. And he’s so good at the public speaking thing![/li][li]If the Republicans got behind this guy and he could maintain the centrist tone he might have a shot![/li][li]Too bad for him the Tea Party folks are hunting RINOS.[/li][/ol] My point being, I could never vote for him because I disagree with him in so many ways, but he sure knows how to sound like a moderate. Whether he is or not, I honestly don’t know. I do know there is no way he can continue the reasonable rhetoric he used tonight and have a chance to get the win in 2016. Too bad for the Republicans because I don’t see them having any better chance. No way the Tea Party will back him. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Bredin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/96bed5/32.png) [@John\_Bredin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Bredin)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/39 "2013-11-06T21:28:36Z")
> [@LavenderBlue](#): > > My local NJ congressperson is Rodney Frelin[g]huysen. [snip] He would lose in many other areas of the country other than NJ. Right, but there’s some sort of constitutional requirement that NJ _must_ send a Frelinghuysen to Congress. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2013, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514/40 "2013-11-06T22:44:11Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Watching Christie’s victory speech tonight I had several thoughts come to mind. > [ol] > [li]This fella sure seems like a regular guy. And he’s so good at the public speaking thing![/li][li]If the Republicans got behind this guy and he could maintain the centrist tone he might have a shot![/li][li]Too bad for him the Tea Party folks are hunting RINOS.[/li][/ol] > > My point being, I could never vote for him because I disagree with him in so many ways, but he sure knows how to sound like a moderate. Whether he is or not, I honestly don’t know. I do know there is no way he can continue the reasonable rhetoric he used tonight and have a chance to get the win in 2016. Too bad for the Republicans because I don’t see them having any better chance. No way the Tea Party will back him. Right, the average SDMBer (meaning a very-far leftist, almost to the point of not being considered acceptable within the Democratic party which is much more centrist), is never going to vote for Chris Christie. His strength is the wide swathe of the electorate from the moderate liberals, through the centrists, through the moderate conservatives that would vote for him (evidenced by his wide support in New Jersey across ideological boundaries.) He’s a complete non-starter as a candidate, though. He’s basically Huntsman with better celebrity and probably more mass appeal, but similarly unpalatable to the ultra-conservatives who vote in GOP primary elections. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-jersey-as-a-bellweather-for-2014/672514.md?page=3)