# New Malaysia Airlines Crash **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [July 17, 2014, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367 "2014-07-17T15:52:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Fuji](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a9a28c/32.png) [@Fuji](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuji)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/41 "2014-07-17T17:51:45Z")
This is fucking horrible. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![cmyk](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmyk/32/3353_2.png) [@cmyk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmyk)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/42 "2014-07-17T17:56:58Z")
> [@Randy\_Seltzer](#): > > According to my back-of-the envelope calculations, the plane went down a couple hundred miles south of its projected flight path. The projected flight path would have barely skimmed Ukraine airspace and the actual crash was pretty close to the middle latitudes of the country. > > [flight path](http://www.gpsvisualizer.com/map?airport1=KUA&airport2=AMS&format=google&units=metric&convert_format=&gc_segments=&gc_altitude=&show_wpt=3&trk_colorize=track) > > [location of crash](https://goo.gl/maps/Ie3mh) > > Not proposing conspiracy theory here. It just seems like it would have been safer to route the flight along the great circle and thus avoid an area where people are shooting planes down a lot. Very interesting. Of course, the plane could’ve diverged a bit off its flight path for any number of legit reasons. OTOH, is it possible the plane remained somewhat intact after the strike, and coasted in its decent that far south where it ultimately crashed? ---
**Author:** ![cmyk](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmyk/32/3353_2.png) [@cmyk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmyk)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/43 "2014-07-17T17:58:02Z")
> [@willthekittensurvive](#): > > One of the Dutch passengers posted a picture of the plane before boarding on Facebook , with the text “here what it looks like, in case they lose this one too” Oooof. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/44 "2014-07-17T18:00:11Z")
> [@cmyk](#): > > So, it’s starting to really look like Russian separatists using a BUK that shot it down. So says the Ukrainian Gov. There aren’t that many people running around Ukraine with a SAM system capable of shooting down a plane traveling at 30,000 feet. It’s either the Russian army, the Ukraine army, or the semi-pro Separatists. Assuming, for the moment, that this is stupidity instead of malice (in the absence of any rational reason to blow up a random civilian plane), I would look first at the amateurs. We’ll see. Hopefully, someone who speaks Russian can say something about the article I linked above. ---
**Author:** ![blindboyard](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blindboyard/32/2833_2.png) [@blindboyard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blindboyard)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/45 "2014-07-17T18:02:20Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > 1. It was a flight heading towards Russia not towards Ukraine. > 2. A Ukrainian military transport plane was [shot down](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/15/world/europe/ukrainian-military-plane-is-shot-down-as-russia-adds-to-presence-at-border.html) just a few days ago close to the Russian border. Well above shoulder fired missile range. > 3. Just [today](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/18/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-plane-shot-down-its-fighter-jet.html?_r=0)there is word that a Russian military jet shot down a Ukrainian jet ovet Ukraine territory. > 4. Russia has provided [military weapons](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/14/world/europe/ukraine-claims-full-control-of-port-city-of-mariupol.html?module=Search&mabReward=relbias%3Aw%2C%7B%221%22%3A%22RI%3A10%22%7D) and vehicles to the rebels. Many of which are probably Russian special forces. > Everything points to it being Russia’s fault. Your number three there shows that the Ukrainians fear their airspace being penetrated by Russian jets. They may well have decided to shoot first, and done so with their standard level of competence. Certainly we know the Ukrainians have SAMs in the Ukraine, we don’t know the Russians or separatists do. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/46 "2014-07-17T18:04:44Z")
> [@cmyk](#): > > Very interesting. Of course, the plane could’ve diverged a bit off its flight path for any number of legit reasons. OTOH, is it possible the plane remained somewhat intact after the strike, and coasted in its decent that far south where it ultimately crashed? Sure - prevailing winds, momentum from the direction of flight, possibly other factors I’m not remembering off the top of my head… It’s not uncommon for wreckage to come down miles from where an airplane had Something Bad occur. ---
**Author:** ![Fuji](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a9a28c/32.png) [@Fuji](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuji)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/47 "2014-07-17T18:08:12Z")
> [@blindboyard](#): > > Your number three there shows that **the Ukrainians fear their airspace being penetrated by Russian jets**. They may well have decided to shoot first, and done so with their standard level of competence. Certainly we know the Ukrainians have SAMs in the Ukraine, we don’t know the Russians or separatists do. A Russian jet penetrating Ukrainian airspace - from the _west_? :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![dzeiger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/46a35a/32.png) [@dzeiger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dzeiger)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/48 "2014-07-17T18:08:38Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > There aren’t that many people running around Ukraine with a SAM system capable of shooting down a plane traveling at 30,000 feet. It’s either the Russian army, the Ukraine army, or the semi-pro Separatists. Assuming, for the moment, that this is stupidity instead of malice (in the absence of any rational reason to blow up a random civilian plane), I would look first at the amateurs. We’ll see. > Hopefully, someone who speaks Russian can say something about the article I linked above. I’ve seen some claims that the separatists have BUK systems they got when they overran some Ukrainian military bases earlier in the conflict. All speculation at this point, of course, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that the separatists could have done this even without a direct gear transfer from Russia. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/49 "2014-07-17T18:17:46Z")
> [@blindboyard](#): > > Your number three there shows that the Ukrainians fear their airspace being penetrated by Russian jets. They may well have decided to shoot first, and done so with their standard level of competence. Certainly we know the Ukrainians have SAMs in the Ukraine, we don’t know the Russians or separatists do. If it was coming from the direction of Russia I could see it. I don’t think they are afraid of air strikes coming from Amsterdam. And a Ukraine transport plane was shot down from an altitude of over 20,000 just a little while ago. So I think it is well known that the Russian side has SAMs. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/50 "2014-07-17T18:19:40Z")
> [@dzeiger](#): > > I’ve seen some claims that the separatists have BUK systems they got when they overran some Ukrainian military bases earlier in the conflict. They certainly posted enough photos of themselves with some captured SAM systems. Here’s a link to one of them (they seem to be doing their best to delete them on the various social sites - like that’ll work!) > ---
**Author:** ![slumtrimpet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@slumtrimpet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slumtrimpet)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/51 "2014-07-17T18:30:24Z")
From the BBC’s live updates: > [@](#): > > 19:00: > > A tweet (in Russian) from a key Twitter account used by pro-Russian separatists, in which they claim to have captured a Buk surface-to-air missile system, has now been deleted, BBC Monitoring observes. Ukrainians say the Malaysian plane could have been downed with a Buk, but pro-Russian rebels have now denied they have it. Oops. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/52 "2014-07-17T18:35:38Z")
> [@dzeiger](#): > > I’ve seen some claims that the separatists have BUK systems they got when they overran some Ukrainian military bases earlier in the conflict. > > All speculation at this point, of course, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that the separatists could have done this even without a direct gear transfer from Russia. I’ve read that, too. Here’s an English language article from the New Republic about the BUK system. Apparently it’s a soviet era machine that doesn’t have sophisticated identification capabilities. It claims that BUK operators can spot a plane, but can’t identify it in detail … which seems like the kind of thing you’d kind of want to include if you’re designing an anti-aircraft system … But what do I know. > **[Whoever Shot Down the Malaysia Airlines Plane Probably Didn't Know What They...](https://newrepublic.com/article/118743/malaysian-airlines-plane-shot-down-ukraine-was-it-intentional)** > > This would not be the first time that Soviet-era weapons have mistakenly taken down a civilian aircraft. ---
**Author:** ![willthekittensurvive](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/91b2a8/32.png) [@willthekittensurvive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/willthekittensurvive)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/53 "2014-07-17T18:36:33Z")
It’s almost page 1 from the super villan playbook: 1 down a commercial airliner from a troubled area 2 ? 3 profit ---
**Author:** ![Declan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecae2f/32.png) [@Declan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Declan)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/54 "2014-07-17T18:37:32Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Never discount the possibility of a simple fuckup. This what I think happened, the SA-11 or SA-17, depending on what was used, is a brigade level air defense unit. For it to work properly, it needs a hand off from a tracking radar to give it Altitude and Attitude of the incoming track. Then its local radar aquires it and they fire. Wiki gives that missile a range of 36 miles/72000 ft. I cant see the Russians giving anyone positive control over something like that system, for this particular reason, as well as they might have shot down a Russian aircraft by mistake. So I think Putin decided to up the ante, and made parts of the Ukraine a no fly zone. Smart people on the other end, are supposed to think for themselves and leave foreign flagged airliners alone, while shooting down Ukrainian airforce jets. So, someone in the Russian air defense zone, tracked the airliner, and handed it off to that particular unit, without making sure that it was a Ukrainian aircraft, and not an airliner. What the Ukraine needs to do right now , is to send out a NOTAM and declare its airspace closed. Declan ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Excellent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f19dbf/32.png) [@Mr.Excellent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Excellent)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/55 "2014-07-17T18:43:13Z")
> [@willthekittensurvive](#): > > Do a lot of commercial airline flight cross Ukraine? I know that one can still buy tickets to Kiev from DC - under a thousand bucks for the round-trip, which actually isn’t bad! But that’s hundreds of miles from Donetsk, near where this plane went down. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/56 "2014-07-17T18:45:12Z")
Where is that Dutch tweet? ---
**Author:** ![willthekittensurvive](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/91b2a8/32.png) [@willthekittensurvive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/willthekittensurvive)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/57 "2014-07-17T18:48:36Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Where is that Dutch tweet? You mean this Facebook post? > **[Log in or sign up to view](https://m.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=465419050262262&id=100003825135026&set=a.121009184703252.21333.100003825135026&source=48)** > > See posts, photos and more on Facebook. ---
**Author:** ![Baron\_Greenback](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/baron_greenback/32/48_2.png) [@Baron\_Greenback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baron_Greenback)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/58 "2014-07-17T18:51:55Z")
Edit. Beaten by the actual FB page. ---
**Author:** ![Charlie\_Wayne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4bbf92/32.png) [@Charlie\_Wayne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Charlie_Wayne)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/59 "2014-07-17T18:55:46Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > … > 2. Plane crashed. The Ukrainian Interior Minister said it was shot down by a missile, but that’s not been independently confirmed. I believe the Ukrainian President just confirmed the plane crashed, but gave no further details. It’s entirely possible the plane crashed on its own. > … It may have crashed on its own. But since the last plane crash/disappearance was a Malaysian Airlines and this one is another, there must be at least a presumption this may have something to do with that airline. Like maybe someone has some kind of problem with that airline? I know the probability is small. But surely there must be some probability. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2014, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367/60 "2014-07-17T19:10:38Z")
> [@Baron\_Greenback](#): > > They certainly posted enough photos of themselves with some captured SAM systems. Here’s a link to one of them (they seem to be doing their best to delete them on the various social sites - like that’ll work!) > > [x.com](https://twitter.com/RobPulseNews/status/489815856135036928/photo/1) Well, the separatists capturing a BUK system makes a hell of a lot more sense than the Russians giving some to these doofuses. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-malaysia-airlines-crash/693367.md?page=4)