# New York Primary Discussion Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 17, 2016, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461 "2016-04-17T14:40:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/101 "2016-04-20T02:33:42Z")
> [@bengangmo](#): > > Clinton’s currently up by 17% - does this count as a “good” win for her or under performing in her home state? > > Delegate math aside, and viewing New York purely as a standalone should she be satisfied with today’s result? > > Naturally - with Bernie needing to get around 60% of the remaining delegates in every state - this is rather devastating for him… > Is there any update on what proportion of the remaining delegates he needs to overtake Hillary after today’s result? That’s about where she was polling going into today; for her it’s fine, for Bernie he was hoping for a lot better result. It’s tough to estimate without having a good idea of how the delegates break. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/102 "2016-04-20T02:36:18Z")
Nassau County has yet to report a single precinct. Assuming its like its neighbors (Suffolk +10, Queens/Westchester +20), it’ll be a big boost to Clinton’s count. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/103 "2016-04-20T02:45:41Z")
I think the delegate math argument has been overplayed in the media, as much of the delegate math still depends on superdelegates. But Hillary’s point spread is big, and it might be enough to convince voters in next week’s 5-state races that Sanders is finished. Sanders needs to maintain his campaign’s energy. After tonight, I’m not sure he has that anymore. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/104 "2016-04-20T02:47:57Z")
> [@Lakai](#): > > For anyone curious, Cruz lost the Bronx district, [District 15](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2016_primary/president/ny_gop.html), that he decided to [visit](http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/04/07/ted-cruz-holds-small-bronx-event-after-cancelled-school-appearance/). > > The district had about 300 votes in the 2012 Republican primary. Cruz was hoping his visit would encourage at least some voters to swing his way so that he could get some delegates. He had a chance to win three delegates with only a few hundred votes. > > He lost, but as of now he has 25% of all the votes in District 15, which is his highest percentage out of any other district. Which just goes to show that the more people get to know Teddy C, the less people like him… ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/105 "2016-04-20T02:51:38Z")
I guess Hillary has the…wait for it…momentum. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/106 "2016-04-20T02:54:46Z")
Latest delegate count for the Democrats; CLINTON 1900 pledged: 1413 super: 487 SANDERS 1185 pledged: 1145 super: 40 2383 delegates needed to win Clinton’s lead just keeps growing, yet Bernie keeps insisting he’s going to win this. Bernie must be very bad at math. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/107 "2016-04-20T02:55:55Z")
Perhaps I haven’t been paying enough attention, but I am quite surprised as to how _badly_ Cruz is losing in NY. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/108 "2016-04-20T02:59:44Z")
Assuming he splits the supers (and that’s a big assume), he needs right around 60%. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/109 "2016-04-20T03:11:30Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Perhaps I haven’t been paying enough attention, but I am quite surprised as to how _badly_ Cruz is losing in NY. Remember…Cruz doesn’t think much of “New York values”. He bit himself in the foot when he opened his mouth in that debate. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/110 "2016-04-20T03:12:02Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Perhaps I haven’t been paying enough attention, but I am quite surprised as to how _badly_ Cruz is losing in NY. I’m not. I knew that New York values remark was going to bite him in the butt come primary time. My question is does Cruz have a realistic shot at any of the remaining North East states? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/111 "2016-04-20T03:14:11Z")
I found this number interesting. Kasich took 44.6% of the vote in Manhattan to Trumps 42.2 %. Really? ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/112 "2016-04-20T03:15:51Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I think the delegate math argument has been overplayed in the media, as much of the delegate math still depends on superdelegates. Unless Sanders radically turns the race around — and likely not even then — there is zero chance the superdelegates will flip to him. I don’t see how “delegate math” is overplayed when it’s literally the only metric that determines who wins. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/113 "2016-04-20T03:25:36Z")
**asahi** , there was no plausible result this race could have had that would actually be bad for Clinton. She’s going to win the Democratic party nomination. It remains to be seen by what margin she wins it, but winning by a small margin is the same effect as winning by a large one. Which is not to say that the races from this point out don’t matter. They do: The better Sanders does in them, the more of a voice he has to shift the party. So if you’re a Sanders fan, as I am and I’m pretty sure you are, you should still be hoping for him to do as well as possible. But at this point, hoping that he’ll actually win is unrealistic, and _expecting_ that he’ll win is just folly. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/114 "2016-04-20T03:27:43Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Perhaps I haven’t been paying enough attention, but I am quite surprised as to how _badly_ Cruz is losing in NY. They hate him. With hateful hatred. Rightly earned. Main NY Value at work: _"Don’t f_\*\* with me. I take s\*\*\* from nobody."\* > [@Little\_Pig](#): > > I found this number interesting. Kasich took 44.6% of the vote in Manhattan to Trumps 42.2 %. Really? Trump is too much in Manhattan’s face. And though he slaps his name on a variety of variously succesful or not ventures in the borough, he remains a Bridge And Tunnel person in essence. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/115 "2016-04-20T03:31:42Z")
I think these results are a definite plus for Kasich. He can emerge as the alternative to those anti-Trump voters who nonetheless do not like Cruz. I cannot understand why the talking heads are saying that nobody would accept a result at a brokered convention where the delegates rally around Kasich. The cries of “will of the voters” and the like simply misunderstand the convention process as it has been in place for about 150 years. Just because for the last 70 years, there have been 1st ballot majorities does not mean that in the absence of a first ballot majority that the vote must go to the plurality winner or the 2nd place guy. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/116 "2016-04-20T03:36:36Z")
Missed the edit window: I agree that the primary rules in NY are unfair. Look at some of these numbers: In some of these districts, over 60,000 Republican votes have been cast and in others, about 3,000. However, both districts get the same amount of delegates. ---
**Author:** ![Hank\_Beecher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hank_beecher/32/7275_2.png) [@Hank\_Beecher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hank_Beecher)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/117 "2016-04-20T03:38:15Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > I cannot understand why the talking heads are saying that nobody would accept a result at a brokered convention where the delegates rally around Kasich. The cries of “will of the voters” and the like simply misunderstand the convention process as it has been in place for about 150 years. The talking heads are saying it because the voters are saying it, including a significant portion that are not voting for Trump. [Nearly Two-Thirds of Republicans Want Candidate with Most Votes to Be Nominee](http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-62-say-republican-most-votes-should-be-nominee-n556846) ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/118 "2016-04-20T03:48:40Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > I think these results are a definite plus for Kasich. He can emerge as the alternative to those anti-Trump voters who nonetheless do not like Cruz. > > I cannot understand why the talking heads are saying that nobody would accept a result at a brokered convention where the delegates rally around Kasich. The cries of “will of the voters” and the like simply misunderstand the convention process as it has been in place for about 150 years. > > Just because for the last 70 years, there have been 1st ballot majorities does not mean that in the absence of a first ballot majority that the vote must go to the plurality winner or the 2nd place guy. The idea of democracy in party primaries is stronger than the memories of those in politics 70 years ago. ---
**Author:** ![Hank\_Beecher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hank_beecher/32/7275_2.png) [@Hank\_Beecher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hank_Beecher)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/119 "2016-04-20T04:00:57Z")
Looking like Trump will get 90 or more of the 95 NY delegates. Cruz gets zilch. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2016, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461/120 "2016-04-20T04:04:26Z")
> [@Hank\_Beecher](#): > > Looking like Trump will get 90 or more of the 95 NY delegates. Cruz gets zilch. A lose-win situation (no win-win situation being here conceivable). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/new-york-primary-discussion-thread/752461.md?page=7)