I wonder how much of that is real (Sanders is too far left, too much of a lightweight, etc) versus how much is a regression into tribalism resulting from insults, innuendo, and conspiracy-mongering from the Sanders and his supporters (corporate whores, mainstream media being biased against Sanders, etc.) If it’s the latter, most of them would return to the fold by November. Of course, it’s likely moot, as Sanders’s chance of winning the nomination has to be less than 5% at this point.
Likely moot, but I do think the tribalism can be risky. I don’t think it’s there, but it can get there.
Maybe I phrased my comment poorly. What I meant to say is that, if she does indeed win New York fairly big, and it looks more solidly like she will win the nomination, she needs to be more inclusive to Bernie’s people going forward. When you’ve essentially won the nomination, you need to start coalescing the party, not continuing to fracture it. She will want Bernie’s voters to vote for her come November. And in order to make that conceivable to them, she will need to start being more conciliatory to them. In other words, it’s time to start being a gracious winner and a team player.
All bets are off, however, if she doesn’t win NY fairly handily. If that’s the case, the war continues.
Certainly the Sanders campaign should have known about the New York problem last summer. But even if they knew about it, could they have actually done anything about it? There was no chance they’d be able to get the rules changed. The other option is to get the word out to Sanders’ supporters in New York that they need to change their registration… but to do that, you have to first have the supporters. And that’s what he spent the campaign doing, building up the body of supporters. He started off viewed as basically a novelty candidate, and that didn’t really change (indeed, couldn’t really change) until we got close to the first few primaries. By which time it was too late.
I don’t know what she can really do at this point to be accepted as conciliatory. Lots of people on both sides are trying their damnedest to be offended.
I agree with this. I would like to see the Sanders campaign accept this, too, and tone down some of the vitriol. But as long as Sanders continues to run a campaign that appears to be trying to win, it’s reasonable that Clinton will do so as well.
Highly agreed. The muck in this campaign is exhausting.
Just got back from voting for Hillary.
There’s probably little chance of a Bernie win in NY tonight, but if he can keep the loss to within 10 percentage points, that would be a significant move upward. It would also spell trouble for Clinton going forward.
You really just don’t get it Chronos.
Open caucuses good. Closed primaries bad.
Southern states with relatively more Black voters immaterial. Whiter states important.
Rounding small numbers such that relatively narrow caucus voter majorities turn to even delegate splits (see Wyoming) bad and unfair. Next stage caucus meetings giving Sanders more delegates than what the vote had been (see CO and MO) fair and wonderful.
The possibility of superdelegates pushing Clinton over the edge very undemocratic and unfair. Sanders trying to convince superdelegates to give it to him if he has neither a popular vote or a pledged delegates majority, commonsense and the only possible choice.
Get with the program!
Seriously, yes, which states are caucus states, which open primary and which closed and when the deadlines are is all basic information to anyone running a campaign.
Some of those state set ups may favor one and one another. No, a state will not change their rules to make it more favorable to your candidate even if you petition nicely.
Sanders just had a big run of contests that were favorable to him, caucuses. Now Clinton has a run to come of closed primaries. Next week’s are also all closed primaries except for one, RI, “semi-closed”. Yes, NY has the longest period of having to register as a party member. If this is a surprise to someone in the business then they should not be in the business. I am sure that Devine knew this from word go. Between today and next Tuesday’s mostly closed primaries 631 pledged delegates will be chosen.
No and no, why do people keep saying stuff like this? anything but a very strong win is a death blow for Bernie.
Sanders isn’t going to win. Sanders was never going to win. “Victory” in his case should count as getting people mobilized, as moving the Overton Window such that discussion of class issues is no longer taboo. I want the campaign to return to the tone of respect it initially had, but I see no reason for him to drop out. We’ll see if he really achieved victory come January, when we have a new president; we’ll see if he really achieved victory come next election cycle, when people that supported him have a chance to show whether they remain mobilized for issues of economic justice.
Oh, good, another excuse for Bernie losing…
http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/19/politics/new-york-primary-voter-problem-polls-sanders-de-blasio/
That is why the first step is to set up state election offices with people who do know.
Here’s a question: will the numbers tonight give any indication of how NY will fall in the general between Clinton and Trump?
New game, every time we read “Overton Window” we have to drink a shot … could my liver take it?
You’d think CNN could wait more than a minute and a half before declaring Trump the winner. With zero votes counted, yet. Is the competition really that tough?
Exit polling.
Heh so far their exit polling on Hillary-Bernie is 10 points off, with 16% counted.
Where are the votes from? How many votes are still to come in from areas where Sanders may be more popular that Clinton?
Calling the race for Trump so early indicates that the exit polls were so overwhelmingly for him that even if the exit polls were off, he’d still win.
Certainly, it’s possible that CNN’s exit polls may turn out to be incorrect, but comparing a state-wide guesstimate to actual votes counted that are coming in from random parts of the state is not a good comparison. Wait until all the votes are reported, and then we can bitch about CNN.