# Newt Gingrich to run for president - has he got a snowball's chance? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 9, 2011, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290 "2011-05-09T16:28:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/21 "2011-05-09T21:52:05Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Then again, Barack is a nice woody name, so it’s no wonder he was elected. Newt is right tinny. I mean, come on. Newt, Newt, Newt. Tinny. Terribly tinny. Barack. Baraaaaack. Now there’s a woody name for you. Barack. Woody. Electable. > > 😛 That is THE funniest MPFC skit! “Vacuum, recidivist…” 😃 I don’t think Newt will be regarded as a GOP top candidate. Unfortunately, why anyone in the world would that that Romney or Huckabee is an upstanding candidate is beyond me. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/22 "2011-05-09T22:55:39Z")
> [@Mosier](#): > > Gingrich has quite more than a snowball’s chance, in my opinion. He doesn’t have instant mass appeal like Palin, but he is seen as a responsible fiscal conservative by everyone who would consider voting for a fiscal conservative. Many people give him credit for balancing the budget in the 90s, even though he was the chief architect of the (failed) resistance to the balanced budget bill. > > I give him a fair shot at winning the Republican primary. A much lower shot of actually beating Obama, though. I pretty much agree that Gingrich has a decent shot at the nomination, of only because no better canduhdates are showing up. As for the banging other women, well, he just has to put on a show of remorse and claim he’s spoken to Jesus and asked and been given forgiveness. Christians will eat that shit up. The other thing is that he has, for some inexplicable reason, a rep as an intellectual. Given some of the amazing things that have come out of his mouth over the years, I would have thought this would have been debunked years ago. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/23 "2011-05-09T23:07:32Z")
> [@Frostillicus](#): > > America will NEVER elect a man with a funny-sounding name to the presidency. > > Oh wait… “Barack” is unusual, but it’s not _comical_. “Newt” is comical. If you told me “King Barack” was a character in a movie I’d think maybe it was a key character in some fantasy epic, a wizened but tough as nails warlord who has to be prevailed upon to commit his mighty army of veteran warriors to the hero’s cause. “King Newt” as a character in a movie would be the chubby 12-year-old leader of a gang of misfits at Camp Whackalotta who get into a lot of wacky hijinks trying to put one over on mean Old Man McCourt. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/24 "2011-05-09T23:10:48Z")
Is Newt his actual name or just a nickname that has come to overshadow the real one? I’m afraid I’m going to need to see a birth certificate to prove this either way – the long form, please. ---
**Author:** ![Raygun99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/25 "2011-05-09T23:18:44Z")
Short for “Newton”, apparently. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/26 "2011-05-09T23:22:24Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > As for the banging other women, well, he just has to put on a show of remorse and claim he’s spoken to Jesus and asked and been given forgiveness. Christians will eat that shit up. Except that he didn’t ask Jesus for forgiveness, he asked the Pope.\* That will matter to some of the Southern vote that he HAS to count on. On the other hand, it may well help him in South Florida, so it’s a toss-up. \*Note to Catholics (and others), yes, _I_ know that’s not how it works, but enough people I know think that way that it’s a valid point to bring up in this forum. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2011, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/27 "2011-05-09T23:37:06Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > Except that he didn’t ask Jesus for forgiveness, he asked the Pope.\* That will matter to some of the Southern vote that he HAS to count on. On the other hand, it may well help him in South Florida, so it’s a toss-up. > > \*Note to Catholics (and others), yes, _I_ know that’s not how it works, but enough people I know think that way that it’s a valid point to bring up in this forum. I’m sure he did both. He chatted with Jesus before he converted - afterward he had to use the Vatican switchboard. ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/28 "2011-05-10T00:42:54Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > I’m sure he did both. He chatted with Jesus before he converted - afterward he had to use the Vatican switchboard. Well, there’s hell of a question to hav to answer: “So, after you cheated on and left your first wife, you confessed you sought forgiveness from God, but after you did the same with your second wife, you became a Catholic and confessed your sins to your priest, and sought an annulment from the Church? Do you chose the new religion before the new wife, or vice versa? Are you weighing your options for wife #4 and religion #3 yet?” ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/29 "2011-05-10T00:52:55Z")
Now he’s claiming he’s to old and settled to cheat any more. Translation: the Viagara hasn’t worked. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/30 "2011-05-10T01:33:31Z")
Let’s assume a best case scenario for Newt in terms of the GOP field. Trump announces that it was all a misguided attempt at a ratings boost. Huckabee and Palin opt for money over power. Bachman goes back on her meds. Daniels and Huntsman stay out. So the field is Romney, Pawlenty, Santorum, Cain, Paul, Johnson, and Gingrich. Let’s assume Cain never gets a following, and that Paul and Johnson split the hard-core libertarian vote, keeping Paul from making the kind of showings he made in 2008. So that leaves Romney, Pawlenty, and Santorum as genuine contenders for the top three slots in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. The question becomes whether Gingrich can (1) beat Pawlenty and Santorum in Iowa, or (2) beat Romney in New Hampshire, or else (3) take second in both contests and win South Carolina. Any of those paths gives him a legit shot at the nomination. That final scenario – show in IA and NH and win SC – doesn’t sound so crazy to me, actually. He can beat Santorum in Iowa because he’s more electable, and Santorum is a terrible candidate (see: the last debate). If Gingrich can best Pawlenty in New Hampshire, then he’s the only Southerner and the candidate with the best foreign policy credentials (i.e., marginally more than zero) for the older vet population that dominates the SC GOP. Indeed, Gingrich is currently running behind only Huckabee in SC. If Huckabee doesn’t run, then he’s the front-runner in that state for the moment. So I’d say more than a snowball’s chance. But it will require the right people to stay out; the marginal candidates to not take off; and will require him to do well enough in New Hampshire to survive until South Carolina. That last bit will be the real trick. If he gets nominated, he could beat Obama. That’s just the nature of the economy and presidential elections. If unemployment is at 9% in November, pretty much anybody but Palin has a shot at Obama. ---
**Author:** ![a35362](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3da27b/32.png) [@a35362](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/a35362)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/31 "2011-05-10T03:10:41Z")
Newt Gingrich was the guy who sat on a stool across from President Clinton and talked about real issues. He was the guy who recruited and trained a lot of young Republicans in how to campaign (by using words like “sick” and “traitors” to describe Democrats). He taught silly college courses and wrote silly novels and had silly ideas, but darn if he can’t speak authoritatively in complete sentences and act properly indignant when you call him on his bullshit. IIRC, when he left Congress suddenly, he had just been re-elected with something like 70% of the vote. There was a rumor about his being caught with a hooker and how he knew his time was up; if he left office it wouldn’t be pursued. Now I guess he figures nobody cares or has forgotten. I agree with those who think this is another Palin-Trump-look at me fake candidate, just in it for the fundraising and the attention. The thing is he may be a narcissist like Palin and Trump but he is a smart guy and is sorta knowledgable about the issues, I think. Maybe he figures this is his last chance; why not run and see what happens? ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/32 "2011-05-10T03:43:15Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > As for the banging other women, well, he just has to put on a show of remorse and claim he’s spoken to Jesus and asked and been given forgiveness. Christians will eat that shit up. I’m almost tempted to pit you for saying something so ignorant, but I’ll let this pass. Even IF your silly theory made a lick of sense, you’re forgetting that Newt has converted to Catholicism… which means he’s not a real Christian at all in the eyes of fundamentalist Southerners. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/33 "2011-05-10T03:54:08Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > I’m almost tempted to pit you for saying something so ignorant, but I’ll let this pass… That would be my 4th pitting. I’d be up in the big leagues! Oh well… I expect I’ll offend someone even worse some day soon. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 5:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/34 "2011-05-10T05:39:49Z")
The fact that people are devising elaborate scenarios where Newt could get the nomination and then, through even more elaborate (and unlikely) scenarios **win** the Presidency seems to me to be nothing more than yet another illustration of how shallow the Republican field actually is. I would have to agree with those who see this as little more than a vanity run, much like the recent hissy fit that odd man with the bad case of mange on his head was having on all the news channels. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 5:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/35 "2011-05-10T05:46:32Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > The fact that people are devising elaborate scenarios where Newt could get the nomination and then, through even more elaborate (and unlikely) scenarios **win** the Presidency seems to me to be nothing more than yet another illustration of how shallow the Republican field actually is. I dunno, it seems that some feel that almost ANY Republican COULD beat Obama if the economy is bad enough, so I don’t know if “elaborate and unlikely” comes into it, _assuming_ Gingrich can get the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![AlienVessels](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba8739/32.png) [@AlienVessels](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlienVessels)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 9:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/36 "2011-05-10T09:03:19Z")
Why do people assume that just because someone puts their hat in the ring they think they’re going to win? Seems to me if you have enough funding, you can grab enough of a following to become a kingmaker, and if that weren’t enough, the funds you raise even if you drop out are available for that purpose as well as I understand it. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/37 "2011-05-10T14:24:00Z")
> [@Palo\_Verde](#): > > So has Gingrich got a snowball’s chance? No. Even in this unbelievably weak field, the Newt don’t stand a chance. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/38 "2011-05-10T14:34:50Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > No. Even in this unbelievably weak field, the Newt don’t stand a chance. Somebody’s gotta run. Are the pubbies gonna put up “Generic Candidate”? Name a name who will run, IYO. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/39 "2011-05-10T15:10:26Z")
IMO, it’s Mitt Romney’s to lose. I haven’t seen anything to disabuse me of that notion yet. In the end, the desire to beat Obama will override how much they distrust Romney. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2011, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/40 "2011-05-10T15:53:59Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > IMO, it’s Mitt Romney’s to lose. I haven’t seen anything to disabuse me of that notion yet. In the end, the desire to beat Obama will override how much they distrust Romney. Unfortunately, you’re right. Mitt doesn’t excite anybody, but he’s in the driver’s seat for now, and everybody knows it. The media know it too, but he’s so boring that they feel driven to look for someone more exciting to cover- like Trump. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290.md?page=3)