# Newt Gingrich to run for president - has he got a snowball's chance? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 9, 2011, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290 "2011-05-09T16:28:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2011, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/61 "2011-05-11T20:38:51Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > WTF? A whole bunch of people are running. > > Are you asking who will win the nomination? Hell if I know, but I can give you a long list of names I think have a better chance of winning the nomination than Newt does. > > Mitt Romney > Tim Pawlenty > Mitch Daniels > Mike Huckabee > Michele Bachmann > Hell, even Sarah Palin, though not by much. > Jim DeMint, if he decided to run. > > Each of these people has a better chance of winning the GOP nomination than the Newt does. Nomination or general? Palin and maybe Huckabee and Bachmann have similar levels of support of Fox News and talk radio, though I think all told both have less than Newt. It takes more than Fox/radio support, but if it’s the _nomination_ that’s at play I wouldn’t be so quick to discount that, plus his entrenched, far-reaching and well-oiled political machine. Palin is the closest to that network-wise, but from what I understand despite its size it’s dwarfed by Newt, Inc. How these translate to getting out the vote is the key question, of course, but with regards to the nomination perhaps he isn’t that far from obtaining it–or securing behind the doors agreements to take the VP slot. My core assumption in this is that the nomination process is driven by motivated minorities much more so than the general. An in-place network gives him a huge advantage. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/62 "2011-05-12T00:02:27Z")
How long before people remember horny Newt makes John Edwards look like a choirboy? His dick ruined Newt 14 years ago. He’ll get shredded in this election. Multiple divorces, affairs you name it. Maybe John Edwards should run too? I guess it proves no matter the scandal a politician can always run for office. > [@](#): > > His first marriage, to his former high school geometry teacher, Jackie Battley, ended in divorce in 1981. Although Gingrich has said he doesn’t remember it, Battley has said Gingrich discussed divorce terms with her while she was recuperating in the hospital from cancer surgery. [http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17527506/ns/politics/t/gingrich-admits-having-affair-clinton-era/](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17527506/ns/politics/t/gingrich-admits-having-affair-clinton-era/) ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/63 "2011-05-12T00:07:03Z")
Can anyone tell me — if Newt gets in the race but pulls out before the party nominates a candidate, what happens to any unspent money that he raises? I don’t think that any of it will be public money by that point. I think he’s got a scheme to make money out of this, though I have only suspicion and no evidence. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/64 "2011-05-12T00:13:33Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Mitt Romney > Tim Pawlenty > Mitch Daniels > Mike Huckabee > Michele Bachmann > Hell, even Sarah Palin, though not by much. > Jim DeMint, if he decided to run. > > Each of these people has a better chance of winning the GOP nomination than the Newt does. Romney, Pawlenty, Daniels, Huckabee: yes, they have a better chance (though note that two of them might not even run). Bachmann, Palin, DeMint: no way. All of the objective evidence – the fact that he’s actually running, [name-recognition-adjusted polling](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/a-polling-based-forecast-of-the-republican-primary-field/), and [fundraising](http://visiontoamerica.org/553/gingrich-builds-impressive-political-machine/) (more than all the other potential Republican presidential candidates combined) – all points toward Gingrich being more likely to win the nomination than those three. To argue otherwise you have to have as a premise that GOP primary voters don’t really know who Gingrich is, and will sour on him when they are reminded of his weaknesses. But the evidence suggests they do know who he is, and his unfavorables are comparable to others, and far better than Palin. And he will have plenty of money to help his image. He’s clearly not a top-tier candidate. But he has a much better shot than most in this thread think. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/65 "2011-05-12T00:55:03Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > Can anyone tell me — if Newt gets in the race but pulls out before the party nominates a candidate, what happens to any unspent money that he raises? I don’t think that any of it will be public money by that point. > > I think he’s got a scheme to make money out of this, though I have only suspicion and no evidence. Basically, he can donate it to charity, a PAC, or donate some of it directly to other campaigns. Although, as this ABC News article points out, it’s sort of possible to get around that. Until 1979, candidates could just pocket the money. > **[Senators and House Members Can Keep Campaign Funds on the Way Out](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/campaign-finance-senators-house-members-campaign-funds-retire/story?id=10203316)** > > When elected officials step down unused campaign money can't be tapped for personal use. But there are options and some campaign cash, such as money donated to Political Action Committees, can be kept even if a Senator or Representative retires. On... That being said, political campaigns are expensive, and the campaign usually winds up in debt. Hillary Clinton is still paying off her campaign debt, as is, I believe, John McCain. And Mitt Romney has just forgiven himself the last of the $45 million he loaned to himself in the 2008 campaign. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/66 "2011-05-12T01:18:31Z")
I have figured it out. He will donate it to some political entity which will then hire him as some kind of spokesperson or “strategic thinker” or some such thing. ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/67 "2011-05-12T01:34:04Z")
> [@Rhythmdvl](#): > > or securing behind the doors agreements to take the VP slot. I think this is actually the likely outcome - he plays the VP elder statesman role (ala Biden, Chaney) for some Governor who is the Presidential nominee. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/68 "2011-05-12T02:41:11Z")
> [@Icarus](#): > > I think this is actually the likely outcome - he plays the VP elder statesman role (ala Biden, Chaney) for some Governor who is the Presidential nominee. Maybe, though most of the less experienced candidates now lack foreign policy experience. Bush and Obama chose their running mates to cover that perceived gap as well. But unlike Biden or Cheney, Newt isn’t particularly known for his knowledge of foreign policy (other then Muslims==Bad), so I don’t really think he fits that model. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/69 "2011-05-12T03:11:52Z")
Given the very weak field of candidates, I’d have to agree Newt does have a snowballs chance. Not much more. But, I haven’t heard a new or interesting name fielded so far. It’s the same tired rejects from 2008. Romney, Huckabee, maybe the guy from NY. Same old song. 12 years from now, we’ll be idly wondering if John Edwards has a chance. By then his antics will have been forgotten too. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/70 "2011-05-12T13:34:38Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Romney, Pawlenty, Daniels, Huckabee: yes, they have a better chance (though note that two of them might not even run). With Daniels and Huckabee, I think they’ve got better chances than Newt does, even adjusted for the possibility that they won’t run. > [@](#): > > Bachmann, Palin, DeMint: no way. I have to believe that ultimately _someone_ is going to catch fire with the Teabagging crowd. And that someone will have a better chance than Newt. (No, Newt won’t be the one.) > [@](#): > > All of the objective evidence – the fact that he’s actually running, [name-recognition-adjusted polling](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/a-polling-based-forecast-of-the-republican-primary-field/), and [fundraising](http://visiontoamerica.org/553/gingrich-builds-impressive-political-machine/) (more than all the other potential Republican presidential candidates combined) – all points toward Gingrich being more likely to win the nomination than those three. To argue otherwise you have to have as a premise that GOP primary voters don’t really know who Gingrich is, and will sour on him when they are reminded of his weaknesses. I don’t get this argument at all. Gingrich’s problem is exactly the opposite: everyone already knows who he is, and very few people outside a 30-mile radius of the Nation’s Capital give a shit that he’s running. But [various Gingrich greatest-hits compilations](http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_05/gingrich_launches_the_ultimate029513.php) demonstrate the potential for his unfavorables to still rise dramatically. > [@](#): > > He’s clearly not a top-tier candidate. But he has a much better shot than most in this thread think. IYHO. My take is that a candidate has to get people to vote _for_ him in the primaries. There are people out there who will vote _for_ Bachmann or Palin. To the extent that someone’s relatively unfamiliar to the public at large (e.g. GWB, January 1999; Pawlenty, Daniels this year) a bunch of money can really help if used well. I don’t see who Gingrich is going to win over; I think even most of those who name him in the polls will eventually go elsewhere. Teabaggers will want someone who hasn’t been a creature of Washington since the 1980s, and people who want someone who’s got some experience with governing will choose between Romney, Pawlenty, and (if running) Daniels. > [@Rhythmdvl](#): > > Nomination or general? > [@RTFirefly](#): > > Are you asking who will **win the nomination**? Hell if I know, but I can give you a long list of names I think have a better chance of **winning the nomination** than Newt does. > > \ > > Each of these people has a better chance of **winning the GOP nomination** than the Newt does. I can see why you’re confused. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/71 "2011-05-12T14:02:54Z")
Heh, I meant to add an ETA that I was starting from your post but not directly addressing you in particular. Then I realized that that was a bit cumbersome phrasing and didn’t quite say what I meant it to say. Then I got distracted. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/72 "2011-05-12T14:37:04Z")
> [@Rhythmdvl](#): > > Heh, I meant to add an ETA that I was starting from your post but not directly addressing you in particular. Then I realized that that was a bit cumbersome phrasing and didn’t quite say what I meant it to say. Then I got distracted. Happens to the best of us. No biggie. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/73 "2011-05-12T22:52:14Z")
Another point about Gingrich: Everyone’s made a big deal about how the health care bill presents problems for Romney, since he passed something similar in Massachusetts. But it’s an even bigger problem for Gingrich, since he proposed basically the same thing in response to Clinton’s plan. Romney at least can offer up the state vs. federal argument, claiming that it’s appropriate or Constitutional or whatever for a single state but not for the entire US, but Gingrich doesn’t even have that argument. ---
**Author:** ![AlienVessels](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba8739/32.png) [@AlienVessels](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlienVessels)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2011, 6:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/74 "2011-05-13T06:58:41Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > Basically, he can donate it to charity, a PAC, or donate some of it directly to other campaigns. Although, as this ABC News article points out, it’s sort of possible to get around that. Until 1979, candidates could just pocket the money. > > [http://abcnews.go.com/Business/campaign-finance-senators-house-members-campaign-funds-retire/story?id=10203316](http://abcnews.go.com/Business/campaign-finance-senators-house-members-campaign-funds-retire/story?id=10203316) > > That being said, political campaigns are expensive, and the campaign usually winds up in debt. Hillary Clinton is still paying off her campaign debt, as is, I believe, John McCain. And Mitt Romney has just forgiven himself the last of the $45 million he loaned to himself in the 2008 campaign. The question is whether a partial campaign could make more than it spends early on. Isn’t the heavy duty spending at the tail end of campaigns? Seems to me you build a constituency, trash the front runners, build up a warchest, and then drop out, down to a “kingmaker” position if you don’t think you can win the whole bag of marbles. You don’t even have to give away the money, just dangle it as a potential part of the package, even if you really plan on using it in the election in a more targeted way. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2011, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/75 "2011-05-13T12:59:31Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Another point about Gingrich: Everyone’s made a big deal about how the health care bill presents problems for Romney, since he passed something similar in Massachusetts. But it’s an even bigger problem for Gingrich, since he proposed basically the same thing in response to Clinton’s plan. Romney at least can offer up the state vs. federal argument, claiming that it’s appropriate or Constitutional or whatever for a single state but not for the entire US, but Gingrich doesn’t even have that argument. He was still talking up what would basically be the Obamacare plan as late as [2007](http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/2011/05/newt-gingrich-used-to-love-individual-health-insurance-mandates/). So yea, I’d say he has at least the same amount of exposure on the issue as Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2011, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/76 "2011-05-13T15:10:54Z")
Not quite. He didn’t manage to get a law passed. Did he even introduce any legislation about it? I’m doubtful, as he seems more of an ‘idea’ guy than a ‘work’ guy. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2011, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/77 "2011-05-13T18:03:04Z")
> [@AlienVessels](#): > > You don’t even have to give away the money, just dangle it as a potential part of the package, even if you really plan on using it in the election in a more targeted way. Given Newt’s philandering past, I’d appreciate it if people would rethink putting such word pictures in our minds. Newt’s dangling package indeed. _Won’t someone think of the children!_ ---
**Author:** ![AlienVessels](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba8739/32.png) [@AlienVessels](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlienVessels)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2011, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/78 "2011-05-13T18:23:28Z")
> [@Rhythmdvl](#): > > Given Newt’s philandering past, I’d appreciate it if people would rethink putting such word pictures in our minds. Newt’s dangling package indeed. With all due respect, it was the money dangling. I think you need to take responsibility for the fecundity of your own imagination. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2011, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/79 "2011-05-17T13:43:06Z")
Looks like Gingrich has gone [flip-flop-flip-flop](http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal/2011_05/gingrich_struggles_badly_with029619.php) on the House GOP budget over the past few days, being alternately for, against, for, and against it. Rush says he’s ‘befuddled’, and Krauthammer is sticking a fork in him. ---
**Author:** ![Profound\_Gibberish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/65b543/32.png) [@Profound\_Gibberish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Profound_Gibberish)\ **Post date:** [May 17, 2011, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290/80 "2011-05-17T14:11:42Z")
That was fun to watch. He specifically stated that he was for an individual mandate, only to back out of it later. He is the classic say anything, mean nothing politician. One flip flop is excusable, but one on top of the other will end up burying him. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-gingrich-to-run-for-president-has-he-got-a-snowballs-chance/581290.md?page=5)