# Newt will win big in SC today **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 21, 2012, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217 "2012-01-21T13:42:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/1 "2012-01-21T13:42:29Z")
The swing to Newt, both in SC and nationally, is pretty astounding. In SC, [the final PPP poll is out](http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_SC_1201023.pdf). They were in the field Wednesday night through Friday night - last night. Over the three-day period, Newt leads Mitt 37-28. For last night alone, it was 40-26. Other polls [have confirmed the earlier stages of this swing](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-1590.html), but PPP is the only one released so far that has Friday polling, taking into account Thursday night’s debate and Marianne show. Nationally, take the Gallup 5-day rolling average. For 1/11-15, Romney was up by 23 over Newt. For 1/14-18, Romney was up by 16. For 1/15-19, Romney was up by 10. Ten points would be a big lead still, but it’s very much a trailing indicator right now. Newt’s scored big in the debates Monday and Thursday nights. Gallup’s average won’t include Friday’s polling until later today, and the most recent average still includes two days of polling prior to Monday’s debate. Just the fact that there was a 6-point swing as 1/14 dropped off the rolling average and was replaced by 1/19 indicates that there was roughly a 30-point swing towards Newt between those two dates. IOW, in all likelihood, Gallup’s one-day polling for Thursday had Newt in the lead. Gallup’s editor-in-chief [referred to the poll movement](http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/01/gallup-romney-support-collapsing-nationally.php) as a “collapse” in Romney’s support. In a race like this, the late momentum is everything. And everything seems to point towards the last swing being even more towards Newt than the swing towards him after Monday night. I think he’s gonna win by about 10 points, +/- 2, say. I’d guess higher if he had any sort of GOTV operation, but he doesn’t, and that’ll keep his margin from being a real blowout. But Mitt’s looking like a hollow man all of a sudden. The fact that most GOP voters really don’t want him as the nominee is making a real difference for the first time. I’d still bet on him to win the nomination, on sheer money and organization. But Newt’s gonna make him look bad along the way. ---
**Author:** ![Spiff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spiff/32/9852_2.png) [@Spiff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spiff)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/2 "2012-01-21T13:50:17Z")
I understand an anti-Romney sentiment, but Newt?!?!! With all his baggage? If he does do well, I wonder what percentage of his voters voted while holding their noses? ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ccd318/32.png) [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_in_Qatar)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/3 "2012-01-21T14:09:34Z")
My, that is hard to accept. The very idea of Newt as the Prez is creepy. As a serious question about a silly situation, what sort of showing can we expect from Cain/Colbert? ---
**Author:** ![CyclopticXander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/59ef9b/32.png) [@CyclopticXander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CyclopticXander)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/4 "2012-01-21T14:16:52Z")
I’m about to go vote. But despite being a Democrat, I’m still struggling with what the Republicans are today. Head vs Heart. Head(Pick who would be the least bad president should it ever actually come to that). or heart (Just pee in their pool and vote for someone utterly unelectable in the general). Any advice? ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/5 "2012-01-21T14:21:29Z")
Math and whatnot aside, for the humour alone I’d like to see a Newt \> Santorum \> Romney (or Paul?) finish. ---
**Author:** ![Gagundathar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a183cd/32.png) [@Gagundathar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gagundathar)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/6 "2012-01-21T14:24:44Z")
I still believe it will be Romney and he will lose 45/55 to Mr. Obama. I could be wrong. I thought Disco would stay around. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/7 "2012-01-21T14:25:21Z")
Weird. I don’t think I can really remember as large a shift in polls in as short a time period that wasn’t caused by some specific specific event or relevation. But nothing really’s happened in the last 72 hrs to make Newt look better or Romney worse. Still pretty hard to believe teh GOP would actually nominate Newt, but if the same phenomenon is happening in Florida, he’ll come out of the early primaries as the frontrunner. After a year of anti-Romney’s, will Romney be the anti-Newt? ---
**Author:** ![emcee2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7bcc69/32.png) [@emcee2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/emcee2k)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/8 "2012-01-21T14:28:17Z")
> [@CyclopticXander](#): > > I’m about to go vote. But despite being a Democrat, I’m still struggling with what the Republicans are today. Head vs Heart. > > Head(Pick who would be the least bad president should it ever actually come to that). or heart (Just pee in their pool and vote for someone utterly unelectable in the general). > > Any advice? My advice would be to stay home. ---
**Author:** ![Gagundathar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a183cd/32.png) [@Gagundathar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gagundathar)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/9 "2012-01-21T14:28:59Z")
The antiNewt? Is that some of armored salamander? With laser-beams eyes? ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/10 "2012-01-21T14:31:15Z")
Perhaps Romney’s 15% tax rate has not been well received. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/11 "2012-01-21T14:35:25Z")
> [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](#): > > Perhaps Romney’s 15% tax rate has not been well received. Or perhaps the base is rallying around the media’s “attack” on Newt. Or both. ---
**Author:** ![CyclopticXander](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/59ef9b/32.png) [@CyclopticXander](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CyclopticXander)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/12 "2012-01-21T14:41:24Z")
> [@emcee2k](#): > > My advice would be to stay home. No. Civics is like crack to me and today is going to be one helluva fix. At least I’m only sorta considering Limbaugh’s proposed tactic from four years ago for republicans to vote in open democratic primaries just to give their opponents more trouble. ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/13 "2012-01-21T14:55:20Z")
> [@CyclopticXander](#): > > No. Civics is like crack to me and today is going to be one helluva fix. At least I’m only sorta considering Limbaugh’s proposed tactic from four years ago for republicans to vote in open democratic primaries just to give their opponents more trouble. Vote for Cain/Colbert, IMHO. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/14 "2012-01-21T15:08:48Z")
Score the goal for Gingrich, with the assists going to CNN and ABC. ABC thought they could score a nice rating with the interview with wife #2 and her revelation that Newt wanted an open marriage, CNN led the debate with a question on it, and Newt made a nice pitcher of lemonade out of a big bushel of lemons by turning on the question and utilizing the Republican base’s natural disgust of any news media that isn’t Fox. I agree, Newt wins by 10+ tonight, and it isn’t because the voters love him. It’s because the voters can’t fucking stand Romney, easily the most unlikeable front runner since Dukakis. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/15 "2012-01-21T15:17:09Z")
Poor MItt. And it was his turn, too. In other news, the White House can’t stop smiling. Big, shit-eating grins. ---
**Author:** ![joebuck20](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/74df32/32.png) [@joebuck20](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joebuck20)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/16 "2012-01-21T15:18:57Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Or perhaps the base is rallying around the media’s “attack” on Newt. This is what I was thinking. Conservatives these are driven by sticking it to the left and their alleged sympathizers these days as much as they are anything else. It doesn’t matter if Newt’s a scumbag. This is the conservatives’ way of getting back at the “liberal” media. ---
**Author:** ![joebuck20](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/74df32/32.png) [@joebuck20](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joebuck20)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/17 "2012-01-21T15:25:27Z")
FWIW, Chuck Norris just endorsed Newt Gingrich: > **[It's Over: Chuck Norris Has Endorsed Newt Gingrich](https://www.gawker.com/5878019/its-over-chuck-norris-has-endorsed-newt-gingrich)** > > Newt Gingrich is going to win the South Carolina presidential primary tomorrow. Not just because he yelled at two debate moderators for asking him debate questions this week, which brought him up about 20 percentage points in the polls. That wasn't... ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/18 "2012-01-21T15:35:06Z")
> [@joebuck20](#): > > This is what I was thinking. Conservatives these are driven by sticking it to the left and their alleged sympathizers these days as much as they are anything else. It doesn’t matter if Newt’s a scumbag. This is the conservatives’ way of getting back at the “liberal” media. Newts standing in the polls was already on the way up before Thursday night though. Look at the graph on the PPP site. Romney actually holds pretty steady. Newt’s boost comes from people abandoning Santorumn (and to a lesser extent, Perry). I think what happened was that despite Perry’s low standing in the polls, his dropping out and endorsing Newt helped push Newt forward as the anti-Romney candidate. So people who didn’t like Romney started abandoning Santorum, and we’re getting the race everyones been predicting: Romney vs. a single unified(ish) anti-Romney vote (plus Paul, who presumably will hang on till the end). ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/19 "2012-01-21T15:35:58Z")
> [@joebuck20](#): > > FWIW, Chuck Norris just endorsed Newt Gingrich: > > [http://gawker.com/5878019/its-over-chuck-norris-has-endorsed-newt-gingrich](http://gawker.com/5878019/its-over-chuck-norris-has-endorsed-newt-gingrich) He can be Secretary of Defense. And there will be world peace. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2012, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/20 "2012-01-21T15:46:04Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#): > > He can be Secretary of Defense. And there will be world peace. Yes … after the nuclear conflagration. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217.md?page=2)