# Newt will win big in SC today **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 21, 2012, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217 "2012-01-21T13:42:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/61 "2012-01-22T02:32:05Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > Thing is, the Republican Establishment fucking hate Newt. All of them. And so how the hell does Newt keep going . . . That’s exactly how he keeps going. GOP voters are tired of the party hacks putting up losers like McCain and Dole, and faux-conservative winners like George W. Bush. I’m a registered Republican, but I hate the party establishment. Hell, I might support Romney, but I know I don’t like him because the Republican party bosses want him. I know that makes me not able to support him. I’m not convinced that Newt can do the job yet, but I’m loving the fact that the party bosses haven’t been able to steam roll this primary yet. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/62 "2012-01-22T02:33:22Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > [Gingrich wins. Check out this incredibly detailed breakdown by the NYT.](http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/south-carolina/exit-polls?ref=politics) Thanks for the link. It seems Romney only wins with liberal republicans who are doing well, oppose the Tea Party, and don’t care all that much about religion. A recipe for the nomination if I ever heard one. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/63 "2012-01-22T02:34:45Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > Romney about 40% > Gingrich about 20% > Santorum about 15% > Paul and others following up. > > In other words, about the same as South Carolina looked 10 days ago. > > ETA: It might be worth noting that early voting in Florida is already underway. Given the difference in the demographic makeup of the two states isn’t a tie the best Newt can hope for in Florida? Wouldn’t that pretty much be as good as a loss for Romney? And it would keep Newt’s momentum going. Everytime I think the clown show is over something happens to make it more entertaining than I could ever imagine. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/64 "2012-01-22T02:35:52Z")
Darth Rove. Crossroads PAC, taking a big ol’ bucket all around the country, and milking the corporadoes for everything he can get his hands on. Millions upon millions, stacked up ammo for the war against Obamanism. So, what does he do? Give it to Newt, or give it back? ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/65 "2012-01-22T02:36:06Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I’d rather see a Gingrich/Obama debate than a Romney/Obama one, but the party that couldn’t shoot straight needs to shoot itself in the foot first. Shot in the foot. Don’t you mean shot in the Newts? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/66 "2012-01-22T02:36:10Z")
Gingrich just expressly endorsed Ron Paul’s views on money and the Fed, said he’s “been right for 25 years.” (While saying he disagrees with Paul on other things.) Curious that the Americans who want deflationary gold money now seem to be the ideological descendants of those who wanted inflationary silver money in the 19th Century. And both saw/see the bankers as the enemy. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/67 "2012-01-22T02:48:55Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > GOP voters are tired of the party hacks… Newt’s not a party hack? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/68 "2012-01-22T02:59:35Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Darth Rove. Crossroads PAC, taking a big ol’ bucket all around the country, and milking the corporadoes for everything he can get his hands on. Millions upon millions, stacked up ammo for the war against Obamanism. > > So, what does he do? Give it to Newt, or give it back? The dark synergy of the NewtMind and the RoveMind would be terrible. And if they were to resurrect Darth Cheney and complete the Triad . . . ---
**Author:** ![Mehitabel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8797f3/32.png) [@Mehitabel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mehitabel)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/69 "2012-01-22T03:01:55Z")
Well, that was weird. Apparently you can’t bow to Saudi kings but it’s OK to walk around [holding hands with them.](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4481439.stm) Andrew Sullivan just signed off live-blogging, and the TV pundits are signing off except for CNN which is trying to milk it another hour. I’m not a Republican but what I just watched gave me a sinking feeling that’s it’s gonna be a long hard slog to November. Andrew said: > [@](#): > > My take away? This is the Republican crack-up people have been predicting for years. Gingrich is on a roll. I think he can win this - and then lose this in a way that could change American history. That is a brief impression in one moment of time. But I cannot see Romney winning this at this point. They are just not into him, and he’s an awful candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/70 "2012-01-22T03:10:00Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > Newt’s not a party hack? I think he was during his time of political power. Now I think he’s basically a loose cannon. I don’t really like Newt. I liked him in 1994, I really resented him for hurting the party by pushing for a very unpopular persecution of a President on an issue that most Americans didn’t care about. He squandered the party’s political capital on something extremely stupid. But in this election cycle, I do think that Newt has been somewhat refreshing just because he’s been willing to randomly say whatever he feels like with no real regard to how it is taken politically. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/71 "2012-01-22T03:22:26Z")
99% reporting– 40% - Gingrich 28% - Romney 18% - Santorum 13% - Paul I’d say the OP nailed it. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/72 "2012-01-22T03:24:28Z")
> [@Frank](#): > > Newt’s not a party hack? He _was_ but these days I think he’s more of a “bomb thrower”. He is so pissed at the GOP party establishment and blinded by his own arrogance that he’ll burn the entire thing down out of spite. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/73 "2012-01-22T03:56:53Z")
He made it clear he was a bomb-thrower during the 1994 election that gave him the Speaker’s gavel. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/74 "2012-01-22T04:16:46Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Thanks for the link. It seems Romney only wins with liberal republicans who are doing well, oppose the Tea Party, and don’t care all that much about religion. A recipe for the nomination if I ever heard one. All that and they are not born-again Christian. As soon as the primaries go to states where Republicans are not as concentrated in this one minority sector of the party, the effect that Voyager points out will predominate. Lost in all the horse-race verbal diarrhea is the fact that even a month or so ago, Romney was never expected to win either Iowa or South Carolina. The composition of the primary voting base in those states were thoroughly against him. That he tied in one and lost at the last minute in the other doesn’t change that; in the long-term it’ll be said those were indications that he was doing better than anyone expected. Not that you’ll hear this from media delirious that they have a horse-race to cover for the next couple of weeks until Super Tuesday. It’s a sign of the apocalypse: the Democrats will be toasting Newt Gingrich. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/75 "2012-01-22T04:40:24Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > He made it clear he was a bomb-thrower during the 1994 election that gave him the Speaker’s gavel. Hell, yeah: Newt’s _always_ been a bomb-thrower. > [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > All that and they are not born-again Christian. > > As soon as the primaries go to states where Republicans are not as concentrated in this one minority sector of the party, the effect that Voyager points out will predominate. [According to Gallup](http://www.pollingreport.com/religion.htm) (at the link, scroll down to the Gallup poll, May 5-8, 2011), 30% of Americans believe “[t]he Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word.” Those people are just about all Republicans or lean that way. 30% of the population as a whole is an easy majority of Republicans. States where the fundies aren’t the majority of Republicans are the exception. New Hampshire, for instance, was an outlier. > [@Frank](#): > > Newt’s not a party hack? But he’s the \*wingnuts’ \*party hack. 😃 > [@Frank](#): > > 99% reporting– > > 40% - Gingrich > 28% - Romney > 18% - Santorum > 13% - Paul > > I’d say the OP nailed it. Thanks! ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/76 "2012-01-22T05:03:51Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Shot in the foot. Don’t you mean shot in the Newts? Fewts, Newts, whatever it takes. On a serious note, I wouldn’t vote for Romney, but I wouldn’t be too bothered if he won. Newt, OTOH, is honest to goodness scary. He’s exactly the kind of guy you don’t want in the WH. A big idea guy who thinks he’s always right. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/77 "2012-01-22T05:26:30Z")
It’s better for the GOP that the race remains competitive for awhile. It keeps the candidates in the news. I prefer Romney over Gingrich. Romney will be a stronger candidate if it takes a couple more months of campaigning to clinch the nomination. Unfortunately if Gingrich wins more states then the far right will have more muscle at the convention. Romney will be forced to shift futher right and run further from the middle. He probably won’t be comfortable with the platform he’s forced to run under. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/78 "2012-01-22T05:28:11Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > On a serious note, I wouldn’t vote for Romney, but I wouldn’t be too bothered if he won. Newt, OTOH, is honest to goodness scary. He’s exactly the kind of guy you don’t want in the WH. A big idea guy who thinks he’s always right. Which Romney? The old Romney, maybe, the new Romney scares me also. But the fact I have no idea what a President Romney would do scares me more. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/79 "2012-01-22T05:45:00Z")
I’m just here to gloat, frankly. A week ago, when some here and MANY of the TV pundits were saying Mitt would win in SC and practically had the Repub nomination wrapped up, I posted this: > [@evil captor](#): > > 01-15-2012, 08:17 PM – I think it would be wise to observe the little formality of seeing how people in a southern primary actually vote before I drew any conclusions. Included the date so you can see I was actually prescient. I see the OP also hails from Georgia. We got a feel for these things I guess. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2012, 5:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217/80 "2012-01-22T05:50:47Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Romney will be forced to shift futher right and run further from the middle. He probably won’t be comfortable with **the platform he’s forced to run under.** (The bolding is mine.) I have no idea if you did this on purpose but I find your choice of words amusing. Poor Mitt will be under the platform rather than on it. It’s almost sounds like he’ll be trapped. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/newt-will-win-big-in-sc-today/610217.md?page=5)