# Next Up: AZ-08 Special Election April 24 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 14, 2018, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540 "2018-03-14T12:57:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2018, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/21 "2018-04-18T01:47:23Z")
All the GOP heads asploding, would sound like popcorn from space. Oooh, popcorn! ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2018, 8:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/22 "2018-04-18T08:38:22Z")
_I was praying the pieces wouldn’t fall on me._ -Dylan, “Day of the Locust” ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2018, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/23 "2018-04-18T11:33:33Z")
The PredictIt model is one approach, and yeah, odds are still great this will be a GOP win. Even 4 to 1 seems surprising, honestly. If they did it like lots of sports betting I wonder what the spread would be now? I’ll take R+6 as my spread bet. That would be a 15 point shift from the margin that Trump won by. If that happens the significance of this sort of district shifting by that much is giant. It’s one thing to have had shifts of that sort in suburban districts, another to have them in predominantly white blue collar districts, to have that sort of shift also in one that is overwhelmingly White, mostly older, wide margin registered as Republican, sunbelt one, that national GOP PACs have poured money into? The implications for not only the House but even for Senate races like Cruz v O’Rourke are hard to overstate. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2018, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/24 "2018-04-18T18:39:06Z")
Cook Political Report has [shifted its estimate](https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/new-house-fec-reports-rating-changes-7-districts) from “Solid R” to “Likely R” – still a long shot for Democrats, to be sure. ---
**Author:** ![lel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8797f3/32.png) [@lel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lel)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2018, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/25 "2018-04-23T14:53:08Z")
Even if she doesn’t pull off the upset, it sounds like Tipirneni comes off as a strong new Democratic face in AZ politics. Considering that Democratic politicians in AZ have overall been rather lackluster in the past few years, having a solid D candidate in AZ is useful. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2018, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/26 "2018-04-25T03:33:11Z")
So called for Lesko with current margin 52.9 to 47.1 (about 6 points) with total vote count so far 82 to 72K. If that holds I claim the bragging rights 🙂 and more importantly, dang a 15 point shift in _that_ district. It will of course be reported mainly as the GOP win but I am fairly sure a good many GOP candidates are taking notice of its real meaning. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2018, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/27 "2018-04-25T04:50:36Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So called for Lesko with current margin 52.9 to 47.1 (about 6 points) with total vote count so far 82 to 72K. If that holds I claim the bragging rights 🙂 and more importantly, dang a 15 point shift in _that_ district. It will of course be reported mainly as the GOP win but I am fairly sure a good many GOP candidates are taking notice of its real meaning. I’m curious about something: On average, how much of an advantage do you think incumbency is? Like, if you had to put it in terms of points in an election, is being the incumbent worth an extra one point? Five? Ten? What’s your best guess? ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2018, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/28 "2018-04-25T05:21:38Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I’m curious about something: On average, how much of an advantage do you think incumbency is? Like, if you had to put it in terms of points in an election, is being the incumbent worth an extra one point? Five? Ten? What’s your best guess? According to [this](http://economics.mit.edu/files/1205), it’s at least 8 points. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2018, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/29 "2018-04-25T10:52:12Z")
I have no idea how valid (or not) this is, but for kicks, I typed in “impeach Trump” into the Google Trends search engine. Idaho, Arizona, and Iowa are in the top 25 states in terms of “search interest.” I doubt that there’s any serious interest in an actual impeachment, but I’m wondering about the extent to which this could reflect the political mood in these states. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2018, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/30 "2018-04-25T11:55:08Z")
Close but no cigar. The degree to which the Republican brand has diminished even in a deep red district is encouraging. I hope Nancy Pelosi is doing some curls to work up the muscle in her gavel hand. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2018, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/31 "2018-04-25T12:50:54Z")
“If the only data point you had to go on was last night’s #AZ08 result, you’d think a 30-40 seat Dem House gain in Nov. would be way low.” - [Dave Wasserman](https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/989120463258443776), Cook Political Report _I see blue wave a-risin’…_ 😃 ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2018, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/32 "2018-04-25T13:00:00Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The PredictIt model is one approach, and yeah, odds are still great this will be a GOP win. Even 4 to 1 seems surprising, honestly. If they did it like lots of sports betting I wonder what the spread would be now? > > I’ll take R+6 as my spread bet. … just asking questions, but who do you have winning the next 3 Super Bowls? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2018, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/33 "2018-04-25T13:16:43Z")
Not nearly as big a deal, of course, but last night a Dem won [a NY state assembly seat](https://www.vox.com/2018/4/24/17278470/new-york-special-election-results-assembly-district-10) on Long Island that had been in Republican hands since 1978. The Dem, Steve Stern, beat Hillary’s 2016 margin by 11 points, and Obama’s 2012 margin by 15. _'Pubs see trouble on the way._ 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2018, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/34 "2018-04-25T15:06:22Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So called for Lesko with current margin 52.9 to 47.1 (about 6 points) with total vote count so far 82 to 72K. If that holds I claim the bragging rights 🙂 and more importantly, dang a 15 point shift in _that_ district. It will of course be reported mainly as the GOP win but I am fairly sure a good many GOP candidates are taking notice of its real meaning. > [@BobLibDem](#): > > Close but no cigar. The degree to which the Republican brand has diminished even in a deep red district is encouraging. I hope Nancy Pelosi is doing some curls to work up the muscle in her gavel hand. Oh, they noticed: [GOP unsettled by narrow win in US House race in Arizona](https://apnews.com/d3da3eaa5c3141269eeb2974acdeeb6c/GOP-unsettled-by-narrow-win-in-US-House-race-in-Arizona) > [@](#): > > It took a big money push from the Republican Party, tweets by the president and the support of the state’s current and former governors, but the GOP held onto an Arizona U.S. House seat they would have never considered endangered in any other year. > > Tuesday’s narrow victory by Republican Debbie Lesko over a Democratic political newcomer sends a big message to Republicans nationwide: Even the reddest of districts in a red state can be in play this year. Early returns show Lesko winning by about 5 percentage points in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District where Donald Trump won by 21 percentage points. > [@](#): > > Republican political consultant Chuck Coughlin called Tuesday’s special election margin “not good” for national Republicans looking at their chances in November. > > “They should clean house in this election,” said Coughlin, longtime adviser to former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer. “There’s a drag on the midterms for Republican candidates that’s being created by the national narrative. And it would be very hard to buck that trend if you’re in swing districts, much less close districts, if you can’t change that narrative between now and November.” > [@](#): > > Brewer, who backed Lesko and was at her victory party, also warned that Republicans need to make changes if they want to hold the district and other seats in November elections. > > “I think all Republicans need to wake up and listen to what the public wants,” she said. “Before November, we’re going to have to work very hard. We’re going to have to listen to our constituents.” Except Republican politicians have scant experience listening to their constituents, instead choosing to focus on listening to their donors. Frankly, I’m surprised any of them realize they aren’t the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![AvenueB-dude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/59ef9b/32.png) [@AvenueB-dude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AvenueB-dude)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2018, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/35 "2018-04-25T16:08:28Z")
The wave unseating Repubs is going to be, dare I say it, HYUUGE. ---
**Author:** ![Drum\_God](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drum_god/32/44_2.png) [@Drum\_God](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drum_God)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2018, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/36 "2018-04-25T16:56:29Z")
Yeah, but I’m not just going to be okay with this. On Friday, Bill Mahar said it best. He said that Blue Wave sounds like a cheap cologne found at Walgreens. “Blue Wave, from the same people who brought you ‘Inevitable’, by Hillary Clinton.” Yeah, we know all about counting the chickens before they’re hatched. We’re only one Trumpster (Reichstag) Fire away from disaster. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2018, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/37 "2018-04-25T18:53:56Z")
So is Tipirneni considering a run for either of the upcoming Senate seats? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2018, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/38 "2018-04-25T19:36:56Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > So is Tipirneni considering a run for either of the upcoming Senate seats? We’ve already got a good candidate for Flake’s seat in Kyrsten Sinema, who’s [doing well in the polls](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/19/17256364/arizona-senate-race-2018-polls-joe-arpaio-kyrsten-sinema). If McCain resigns or dies in time for his seat to be on the ballot in November, maybe Tipirneni can run for that one. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2018, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/39 "2018-04-25T20:01:11Z")
Even if McCain isn’t out (one way or the other) in time for November, it’s almost certainly going to be soon. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2018, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540/40 "2018-04-25T20:09:06Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Even if McCain isn’t out (one way or the other) in time for November, it’s almost certainly going to be soon. 43 Death Pool players (including me) have him on their 2018 lists. 😃 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-az-08-special-election-april-24/810540.md?page=3)