# Next up: Indiana and North Carolina **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 23, 2008, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509 "2008-04-23T05:15:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/221 "2008-05-07T02:45:32Z")
[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic] I wonder if she’ll congratulate BHO on winning NC. he always congratulates her on her wins, but she never returns the favor. [/QUOTE] His wins don’t count, duh. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/222 "2008-05-07T02:46:12Z")
[QUOTE=Onomatopoeia] Is it still mathematically possible for Obama to pull this off with just Lake left and 85% reporting? [/QUOTE] It is mathematically possible, but quite unlikely. If turnout in Lake is up 20% from last time and he wins is 2-to-1, he could overcome the gap. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/223 "2008-05-07T02:47:20Z")
[QUOTE=Richard Parker] It is mathematically possible, but quite unlikely. If turnout in Lake is up 20% from last time and he wins is 2-to-1, he could overcome the gap. [/QUOTE] I’ll be happy if he keeps her under 5% ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/224 "2008-05-07T02:47:20Z")
[QUOTE=Onomatopoeia] Is it still mathematically possible for Obama to pull this off with just Lake left and 85% reporting? [/QUOTE] Michael Barone on Fox was saying he would need to win 60-40 in everything that’s left, but it’s not impossible. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/225 "2008-05-07T02:48:02Z")
[QUOTE=Onomatopoeia] Is it still mathematically possible for Obama to pull this off with just Lake left and 85% reporting? [/QUOTE] Probably not but the margin will be so razor thin that HRC’s claims of some sort of her momentum coming off of Pennsylvania will fall flat (or should…with this MSM and Clinton math who knows). ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/226 "2008-05-07T02:49:24Z")
[QUOTE=Onomatopoeia] Is it still mathematically possible for Obama to pull this off with just Lake left and 85% reporting? [/QUOTE] The Democratic voter in Union County hasn’t reported yet either. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/227 "2008-05-07T02:51:49Z")
[QUOTE=Frank] The Democratic voter in Union County hasn’t reported yet either. [/QUOTE] Union County has a population under 7500, 98.69% white. It’s not an Obama district. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/228 "2008-05-07T02:53:27Z")
[QUOTE=jayjay] Union County has a population under 7500, 98.69% white. It’s not an Obama district. [/QUOTE] Yeah, but he’ll get a few votes from there as well. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/229 "2008-05-07T02:53:42Z")
[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic] Michael Barone on Fox was saying he would need to win 60-40 in everything that’s left, but it’s not impossible. [/QUOTE] He’s taking Marion County (Indianapolis) by 67-33. I saw upthread that Lake is Indiana’s most populous county, so if he duplicates that result, I should think he’d win. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/230 "2008-05-07T02:55:05Z")
Come on, Lake. Lake…Lake…Lake…Lake…Lake…Lake…Lake…Lake…Lake…Lake…Lake… ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/231 "2008-05-07T02:55:07Z")
There it is…pushing for Florida and Michigan from HRC speech. EDIT: It’s her only play now really. Forget the rest of the elections (virtually no math will get her the win from those and supers are likely to line up more with Obama now than ever). It’ll be decided May 31 when the Rules Committee meets. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/232 "2008-05-07T02:56:29Z")
[QUOTE=Frank] He’s taking Marion County (Indianapolis) by 67-33. I saw upthread that Lake is Indiana’s most populous county, so if he duplicates that result, I should think he’d win. [/QUOTE] Yeah, but Lake is about the same ethnic breakdown, but poorer and less education than Marion. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/233 "2008-05-07T02:56:38Z")
God, she’s such a freakin’ nudge. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/234 "2008-05-07T02:57:02Z")
Lake alone could have 120K votes or more and could easily go heavily for Obama. Could it go by the 40K margin he needs? It is possible. As noted Marion went by 2 to 1. Lake could go by even more. It really is too close to call. How bad does she look if the morning comes and she’s actually lost? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/235 "2008-05-07T02:58:22Z")
[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic] She’s “broken the tie,” huh? [/QUOTE] What did she even mean by this? Broken what tie? Over the course of the night, her lead in Indiana got smaller and smaller. She was never in it in NC? Huh? ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/236 "2008-05-07T02:59:11Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] Lake alone could have 120K votes or more and could easily go heavily for Obama. Could it go by the 40K margin he needs? It is possible. As noted Marion went by 2 to 1. Lake could go by even more. It really is too close to call. How bad does she look if the morning comes and she’s actually lost? [/QUOTE] She’ll spin it, you can be sure of that. However, no matter what happens she aint quittin’. …yawl Edited to add “yawl”, in honor of Hllary deciding she’s Southern this week. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/237 "2008-05-07T03:00:34Z")
[QUOTE=Euphonious Polemic] What did she even mean by this? Broken what tie? Over the course of the night, her lead in Indiana got smaller and smaller. She was never in it in NC? Huh? [/QUOTE] It’s really quite clever. Give your victory speech well before you know for sure but kinda sorta seemed like you had it. If she waited and lost it’d have been a different speech. So now what does the media have to show clips of tomorrow even if she loses? And if she loses she can just say “whoops” with no problem. Frankly smart strategy if sneaky. ---
**Author:** ![Belowjob2.0](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Belowjob2.0](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Belowjob2.0)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/238 "2008-05-07T03:03:26Z")
[QUOTE=Whack-a-Mole] It’s really quite clever. Give your victory speech well before you know for sure but kinda sorta seemed like you had it. If she waited and lost it’d have been a different speech. So now what does the media have to show clips of tomorrow? Frankly smart strategy if sneaky. [/QUOTE] The fact that she always pulls crap like this is why even her supporters rate her as less than trustworthy. Just sayin… ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/239 "2008-05-07T03:04:15Z")
Russert just informed us 220K votes still outstanding almost all in Obama leaning areas … as he said, do the math. Yeah, he can still win Indiana. ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/240 "2008-05-07T03:06:54Z")
[QUOTE=Whack-a-Mole] It’s really quite clever. Give your victory speech well before you know for sure but kinda sorta seemed like you had it. If she waited and lost it’d have been a different speech. So now what does the media have to show clips of tomorrow even if she loses? And if she loses she can just say “whoops” with no problem. Frankly smart strategy if sneaky. [/QUOTE] I liked her gas price relief plan, too. She said she will take steps to reduce prices at the pump by…TADA! putting a windfall tax on the people that produce the gas. Talk about robbing Peter to pay Paul. My head hurts. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509.md?page=13)