# Next up: Indiana and North Carolina **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 23, 2008, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509 "2008-04-23T05:15:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![rikc](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c57346/32.png) [@rikc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rikc)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/321 "2008-05-07T05:52:03Z")
4k Hillary ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/322 "2008-05-07T05:56:53Z")
Obama to Hillary: May the Fork be with you. ---
**Author:** ![ZebraShaSha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/eada6e/32.png) [@ZebraShaSha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZebraShaSha)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/323 "2008-05-07T05:58:21Z")
Everyone else to Hillary: Fork off. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/324 "2008-05-07T06:09:31Z")
I wonder whether Obama would have won Indiana outright were it not for the second Pastor Wright debacle. I think he would have. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 6:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/325 "2008-05-07T06:16:31Z")
[QUOTE=Knorf] I wonder whether Obama would have won Indiana outright were it not for the second Pastor Wright debacle. I think he would have. [/QUOTE] I agree ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/326 "2008-05-07T06:20:06Z")
Nah, it was Limbaugh unleashing his savage horde of doo-doo head Pubbies to throw it to Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/327 "2008-05-07T06:20:39Z")
Let’s not forget the Rushbots – I suspect they represent a goodly chunk of her margin of “victory”. - shakes fist at **elucidator** \* ---
**Author:** ![cckerberos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@cckerberos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cckerberos)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 9:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/328 "2008-05-07T09:03:35Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] I don’t believe for a moment that Hillary Clinton is driving these kinds of numbers to the polls. Were it not for Barack Obama, this year’s turnout would be disgustingly similar to that of 2004. [/QUOTE] Only in the sense that if it were not for Barack Obama then Hillary would already have achieved victory. By the time of the Indiana primary in 2004 Kerry had already clinched the Democratic nomination and the race was over. It seems to me that the fact that their primary is actually relevant this year is likely the most dominant factor in increased turnout rather than the merits of any individual candidate. More people vote when their vote might actually count for something. ---
**Author:** ![cckerberos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@cckerberos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cckerberos)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 9:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/329 "2008-05-07T09:18:46Z")
Oops. Just saw you were talking about NC rather than IN. I think the same reasoning is applicable to them as well, though. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 9:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/330 "2008-05-07T09:34:17Z")
[QUOTE=Jophiel] Huh. It looks like Zogby, of all folks, was the closest in the polling. They called NC for Obama by 14 and IN for Obama by 2. [/QUOTE] Yeah, after all my dissing of Zogby, I went to bed last night thinking, “Damn, I’m gonna have to eat some serious crow on that one.” Doubly so because PPP, who I’ve also criticized lately, was second-best in both states, calling NC for Obama by 10, and IN for Clinton by 5. Meanwhile, SUSA was _way_ off the mark in both states. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 10:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/331 "2008-05-07T10:23:06Z")
So, are the ‘early voting’ votes all counted? The absentee, too? Is it locked and in place, or is there still a chance for Hillary’s lead to shrink further? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 10:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/332 "2008-05-07T10:38:49Z")
TWP is saying it’s 99% counted so I’d say it’s done. Final tallies aren’t usually certified for a couple of weeks by the Secretary of State’s office but it’s rare that there’s more than a microscopic difference. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 10:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/333 "2008-05-07T10:41:44Z")
Further looking at the County-level map shows just a few precincts not reported. 1 in Hancock County (Hillary) 7 in Marion County (Obama) 6 in Lake County (Obama) I doubt it would be enough to make any real change. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 11:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/334 "2008-05-07T11:27:12Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Yeah, after all my dissing of Zogby, I went to bed last night thinking, “Damn, I’m gonna have to eat some serious crow on that one.” Doubly so because PPP, who I’ve also criticized lately, was second-best in both states, calling NC for Obama by 10, and IN for Clinton by 5. Meanwhile, SUSA was _way_ off the mark in both states. [/QUOTE] Any chance in you or someone with some really good stat skills going a comparison mini-study on who has been the most accurate in this primary season? I don’t want to toot your horn too much, but I have turned a few lurkers who I am friends with to your posts to see [in my opinion] your calls across the board for predictions, as you tend to be well within the standard deviation of accurate polling. In other words - Good Job! 😃 Any chance on seeing a comparison of which pollsters tend better than others and why? Do you have a preference? ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/335 "2008-05-07T11:50:28Z")
She’ll go on and win West Virginia — where we’ll discover she had an uncle who taught her how to mine coal — by high double digits. Then on 20 May, they will split Kentucky (Clinton) and Oregon (Obama). These events will allow her a face-saving way to step down, and she will. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/336 "2008-05-07T13:36:34Z")
[QUOTE=kaylasdad99] If Hillary were to join the Obama administration, in whatever capacity, who would likely fill her seat in the Senate? [/QUOTE] In keeping with the realism level of that scenario, it would be a Two-Headed Space Elvis. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/337 "2008-05-07T13:39:07Z")
Well in any case, God bless North Carolina. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/338 "2008-05-07T14:03:07Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] Any chance in you or someone with some really good stat skills going a comparison mini-study on who has been the most accurate in this primary season? I don’t want to toot your horn too much, but I have turned a few lurkers who I am friends with to your posts to see [in my opinion] your calls across the board for predictions, as you tend to be well within the standard deviation of accurate polling. In other words - Good Job! 😃 Any chance on seeing a comparison of which pollsters tend better than others and why? Do you have a preference? [/QUOTE] I’ll see what I can do when I’ve got a moment. But while one can do rigorous math based on a given set of assumptions you’re using to evaluate pollsters, it’s important to understand that the assumptions themselves are subjective. I think Josh Marshall summarized mine nicely just yesterday morning [with this comment](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/193423.php): > [@](#): > > I fondly remember my own personal Zogby epiphany moment. I don’t recall who my interlocutor was. But I told this person that the thing with Zogby was that he relatively frequently nailed final totals right on the nose, even if pretty frequently his numbers were way off. To which my friend very wisely responded, “Josh, that means he sucks.” And I thought, “Hmmm, I guess that’s right.” A few days ago, when comparing the OH/TX/PA pollsters, I wondered aloud which was preferable - Zogby missing by 10, 1.5, and 0, or Rasmussen missing by 4, 4.5, and 4. My bias is towards the latter, as is Josh’s apparently, but it IS a subjective thing. But I’ll try to do this sometime soon, in a way that I can easily add any further primaries to. I’ve got to figure out a couple of things, such as how I deal with primaries where the few pollsters that played didn’t do so hot, and is that better or worse than not showing up at all? And there are also awkward questions of evaluating the early 3-person primaries on the same template of the 2-person primaries since Edwards packed it in. When I’ve thought about this a bit, I may open up a thread and solicit advice. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/339 "2008-05-07T14:05:19Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] I’ll see what I can do when I’ve got a moment. But while one can do rigorous math based on a given set of assumptions you’re using to evaluate pollsters, it’s important to understand that the assumptions themselves are subjective. I think Josh Marshall summarized mine nicely just yesterday morning [with this comment](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/193423.php): A few days ago, when comparing the OH/TX/PA pollsters, I wondered aloud which was preferable - Zogby missing by 10, 1.5, and 0, or Rasmussen missing by 4, 4.5, and 4. My bias is towards the latter, as is Josh’s apparently, but it IS a subjective thing. But I’ll try to do this sometime soon, in a way that I can easily add any further primaries to. I’ve got to figure out a couple of things, such as how I deal with primaries where the few pollsters that played didn’t do so hot, and is that better or worse than not showing up at all? And there are also awkward questions of evaluating the early 3-person primaries on the same template of the 2-person primaries since Edwards packed it in. When I’ve thought about this a bit, I may open up a thread and solicit advice. [/QUOTE] Hey thanks a lot, I appreciate it. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2008, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/340 "2008-05-08T01:00:59Z")
It’s a bad result all around, but what I predicted. Yes, Obama pulled ahead, but he didn’t win decisively. He needed to win Indiana too. This is troubling- I mean if he _is_ the clear front runner, why is he only getting the support of \*about \*half the party? He should be getting the kind of % McCain is getting. Instead, he has a lead of around 1% in the popular vote. Hillary needed a big win in In, and a close win in NC. She didn’t come close. Hillary falls further behind, but this pretty well means she can take it all the way to Denver. And why should she quit? “For the good of the party”? :dubious: Did any Obama-ite here suggest Obama should have quit “for the good of the party” when he was behind? :dubious: Obama _has_ to cut a deal, and he has to deal Fla in. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509.md?page=18)