# Next up: Indiana and North Carolina **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 23, 2008, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509 "2008-04-23T05:15:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/21 "2008-04-23T18:38:35Z")
[QUOTE=Gangster Octopus] Wait, do North Carolina and Indiana count? Are they “big” enough to count? I thought we were only counting the big states? [/QUOTE] First you see if Hillary wins them, then if she does the states count. If Hillary doesn’t win them, they can’t be important, silly. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/22 "2008-04-23T18:40:34Z")
Not incidentally, many of the most populous states are also states with the oldest populations. Small wonder Hillary does well in them. She’s got the white geezer vote wrapped up! ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/23 "2008-04-23T18:42:34Z")
> [@Gangster Octopus](#): > > Wait, do North Carolina and Indiana count? Are they “big” enough to count? I thought we were only counting the big states? Together, they approximately equal Pennsylvannia for Democratic delegates. (It’s one less, I think.) But in general electoral votes, they together count more than Pennsylvannia alone. (26 to 21). ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/24 "2008-04-23T18:45:25Z")
[QUOTE=Gangster Octopus] Wait, do North Carolina and Indiana count? Are they “big” enough to count? I thought we were only counting the big states? [/QUOTE] Whichever state Hillary loses doesn’t matter…I thought you’d learned that by now 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/25 "2008-04-23T18:49:31Z")
In electoral vote terms, North Carolina is in the approximate upper fifth with 15 EVs (technically, it’s the upper 22% with 11 states having 15+). I’d say 15 is an appropriate bar for “important” states speaking in electoral vote terms but your opinion may differ. Indiana shares a spot with 34% of the country having 11+ EVs (17 states). I think you’re talking more middle ground there. Again, YMMV. ---
**Author:** ![spazattak](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/8e8cbc/32.png) [@spazattak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spazattak)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/26 "2008-04-23T19:21:28Z")
[QUOTE=Stuffy] It’s the demographics of their constituencies. Obama on the whole has the more fickle supporters. He’s got the younger vote and the progressives, the progressives can be counted on to go democrat anyway. The young can be counted on to “grow up”. The black vote can be discounted totally as politics has proven time and again. Meanwhile Hilary has the feminists and the elephant everybody seems to be ignoring sans the pollsters and that the Boomers. Don’t think for one minute that both of these groups aren’t counting on the Supers to realize this. As a matter of fact as Hillary keep making this point watch for her numbers to improve in both states. If you’re the party apparatus which group do you alienate? [/QUOTE] “Hillary supporters are old and stubborn, so we should bend to their whims and just nominate Hillary.” ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/27 "2008-04-23T19:23:20Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] [Former Edwards National General Chairman and 49 Other Edwards Supporters Throw Support to Barack Obama](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/zachedwards/gGCVsd/commentary) And this will be just the beginning. [/QUOTE] Are any of them superdelegates? IIRC, Edwards has/had 26 superdelegates in his column. If all of those go to Obama, that would be pretty substantial at this stage of the math. ---
**Author:** ![burundi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/3ec8ea/32.png) [@burundi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/burundi)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/28 "2008-04-23T19:41:47Z")
[QUOTE=Stuffy] Meanwhile Hilary has the feminists and the elephant everybody seems to be ignoring sans the pollsters and that the Boomers. [/QUOTE] Gotta say, none of the Boomers I know are Hillary fans. My in-laws (staunch old hippies, bless 'em) seem disappointed that their children aren’t actively campaigning for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/29 "2008-04-23T20:09:16Z")
[QUOTE=ShadowFacts] Are any of them superdelegates? IIRC, Edwards has/had 26 superdelegates in his column. If all of those go to Obama, that would be pretty substantial at this stage of the math. [/QUOTE] No superdelegates among this batch. However, Obama has already picked up some of the Edwards pledged delegates (and also picked up one of Hillary’s, who switched!) at the county conventions in Iowa. > [@](#): > > Sen. Barack Obama picked up nine more pledged delegates in Iowa, state Democratic officials said late Saturday night, as thousands took part in county conventions. > > All but one of the delegates had been among the 14 won Jan. 3 by former senator John Edwards, who has since dropped out of the Democratic presidential race. Election-night projections showed Obama getting 16 delegates and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton 15. > > With the other six standing firm for Edwards at the county conventions, Obama’s camp claimed 25 delegates from Iowa to 14 for Clinton. > > . . . > > [http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/03/15/obama\_wins\_7\_more\_delegates\_in.html](http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/03/15/obama_wins_7_more_delegates_in.html) ---
**Author:** ![ZebraShaSha](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/eada6e/32.png) [@ZebraShaSha](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ZebraShaSha)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/30 "2008-04-23T20:14:43Z")
North Carolina matters! Not only is my guy getting the nomination, we in Greensboro are getting a free Arcade Fire show out of it. _Awesome._ ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/31 "2008-04-23T20:18:05Z")
[QUOTE=Shayna] No superdelegates among this batch. However, Obama has already picked up some of the Edwards pledged delegates (and also picked up one of Hillary’s, who switched!) at the county conventions in Iowa. [/QUOTE] Thanks! ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/32 "2008-04-23T20:19:46Z")
[QUOTE=ZebraShaSha] North Carolina matters! Not only is my guy getting the nomination, we in Greensboro are getting a free Arcade Fire show out of it. _Awesome._ [/QUOTE] You lucky bums! ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/33 "2008-04-23T20:20:26Z")
Can CNN come up with any other BS to make Hillary look like a Godess? Good God Wolf Blitizer is more pathetic than I thought! Anyway, I know why I don’t watch CNN…I guess I just need to flip over there and look every once in a while. This Primary has come too far for Barack to “implode” now and that is the basic strategy I am seeing: Let the RNC run nasty ads in NC, air them constantly, hope some people from his core jump to HRC and hope for the best. And of course don’t forget to air Clinton saying, \* “I just LUUUUUUV Indiana”\* a hundred times before a commercial break. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/34 "2008-04-23T20:35:25Z")
Doubtless, her aunt Rhoda grew up in Indiana and taught her how to race Indy cars when she was a little girl. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/35 "2008-04-23T20:37:36Z")
IN and NC are both moving from red to…well, reddish purple, anyway. I don’t know how good Obama’s chances would really be to win NC this fall, but the fact that the game’s gone on this long means his people are organizing NC as we speak - hell, have been for weeks, I’m sure. This will set up a fall campaign where Obama’s organization has, to an amazing extent, organized almost every state already. In PA, the number of registered Dems crossed the 4 million mark, and 2.3 million voted yesterday. (Kerry got 2.9 million votes in PA in November 2004.) The DNC, and the Obama campaign, can put all that info in its data banks. I’m sure the same thing’s been happening in NC and IN: more registrations, more Obama organizers knocking on doors and finding out which of their neighbors are Dems, and (assuming the superdelegates don’t suddenly end this in the next 13 days) more people voting in Dem primaries. Obama may have a real shot to win NC this fall. And even if he doesn’t, running as if he does will help prepare the ground for Dems to win in NC down the road, and will help boost the fortunes of Dems in down-ticket races this year. And the same thing in Indiana, with the caveat that it’s NOT going to go Dem this year unless Obama clears 400 EVs. But like NC, it’s moving from red towards reddish purple, anyway - just not as far along. I’ve seen a poll saying Obama’s down only 7 to McCain in Indiana, and it would be a big deal if Obama lost IN only by single digits this fall. Indiana’s still the most conservative state in the Midwest, but ISTM that it’s ready to be just a _little_ more conservative than Ohio, rather than _way_ more conservative, if nudged the right way. ---
**Author:** ![Stuffy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f17d59/32.png) [@Stuffy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stuffy)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/36 "2008-04-23T20:59:49Z")
[QUOTE=spazattak] “Hillary supporters are old and stubborn, so we should bend to their whims and just nominate Hillary.” [/QUOTe] It’s not really my argument, it’s the one I suspect Clinton is making in her “he can’t close the deal” theme. I’m also saying it’ll be a compelling and legitimate argument for some Supers over the next two weeks. The persuasiveness of the argument will probably show up in a lesser than expected amount of Supers announcing over the next few weeks along with a better showing for Clinton in those up coming contest. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/37 "2008-04-23T22:20:32Z")
I read somewhere that the last time Indiana had any importance in a presidential primary was 1968 when Robert Kennedy won the state and sewed-up his nomination. I think Caroline Kennedy should go to Indiana and speak in support of Obama. She could refer to her Uncle Bobby saying, “gee, how nice if Barrack could wrap the whole thing up in the Hoosier State too!” I feel that Obama will do fine in the two biggest counties: Marion (Indianapolis) and Lake (which includes Gary and is almost a “bedroom county” for Chicago) . It’s the suburbs (especially of Indy) and the rural areas where Obama will have problems. That’s why I think Caroline should give her speech in a place like Carmel or Fishers (affluent Indianapolis suburbs). Maybe she could sell some of the Camelot aura to the Soccer Moms. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2008, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/38 "2008-04-23T22:34:27Z")
[Obama picks up Nebraska Superdelegate](http://thepage.time.com/obama-release-on-nebraska-superdelegate-endorsement/) > [@](#): > > Superdelegate Audra Ostergard Announces Support for Obama > > LINCOLN, Neb. – Audra Ostergard, Associate Chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party and member of the Democratic National Committee, publicly announced her support for Senator Barack Obama in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination. > > “I have carefully weighed input from Democrats across Nebraska and closely watched results from primaries and caucuses across the country,” said Ostergard. “There are compelling arguments for supporting both candidates, but my decision came down to what’s best for our country and for Nebraska. In that regard, I am confident in my decision to endorse Senator Obama. He has a proven ability to activate Democrats in Nebraska.” > > “The gravity of this decision has weighed on me heavily,” Ostergard added. “I don’t want to use my position to influence the process, but at the same time I agree with Howard Dean that our party needs a nominee. Senator Obama’s prohibitive lead in pledged delegates was a major factor in my decision.” > > . . . ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/39 "2008-04-24T01:23:44Z")
You know, that’s a darn good point someone made. This fighting, this long fight, means that the Obama campaign is hugely organized and mobilized in states the Republicans havn’t even fought in. This might rock serious shit come November. ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/40 "2008-04-24T01:46:54Z")
[QUOTE=E-Sabbath] You know, that’s a darn good point someone made. This fighting, this long fight, means that the Obama campaign is hugely organized and mobilized in states the Republicans havn’t even fought in. This might rock serious shit come November. [/QUOTE] That’s what we’re counting on…Thanks Barack - well done! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509.md?page=3)