# Next up: Indiana and North Carolina **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 23, 2008, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509 "2008-04-23T05:15:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/41 "2008-04-24T03:54:38Z")
[QUOTE=spazattak] “Hillary supporters are old and stubborn, so we should bend to their whims and just nominate Hillary.” [/QUOTE] I hear you. Yep, these recalcitrant, calcifying old Boomers just won’t be satisfied till they get their way. And things will only get worse. We can count on the Boomers retarding progress for decades to come. I can see them marching on, rank on rank of stubborn, gimlet-eyed, creaking Boomers, Beatles music pounding into their earbuds, drowning out the shrieks of the disposessed and disadvantaged. While the rest of us starve for change, they’ll be slurping up their Activia yogurt, bowels regularly churning, building their muscles as their bodies decay, denying us access to their pristine lawns, interminably delaying the Age of Enlightenment. Gaaa!! It’s the: \*\*NIGHT OF THE LIVING BOOMERS!!! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: \*\* Gawd, let it end… ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/42 "2008-04-24T13:48:05Z")
[QUOTE=BobLibDem] The good news is Hoosiers love basketball, and Obama is a better basketball player than he is a bowler, or at least he says so. [/QUOTE] Of course Tarheels like their roundball, too. These are the basketball primaries! ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/43 "2008-04-24T13:51:36Z")
_sigh_ And guess what’s [already happening in NC.](http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/local&id=6098806) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/44 "2008-04-24T13:53:18Z")
[QUOTE=E-Sabbath] You know, that’s a darn good point someone made. This fighting, this long fight, means that the Obama campaign is hugely organized and mobilized in states the Republicans havn’t even fought in. This might rock serious shit come November. [/QUOTE] That also means Florida will remain more-or-less unorganized territory until after the convention; the Dems here will have to build their campaign org up from scratch and the Pubs will be only slightly ahead. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/45 "2008-04-24T14:02:11Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] _sigh_ And guess what’s [already happening in NC.](http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/local&id=6098806) [/QUOTE] Yeah, why do I get the feeling McCain will be “deploring” a _lot_ of ads this fall? ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/46 "2008-04-24T15:33:39Z")
SurveyUSA is, again, showing Hillary way the heck ahead. ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/47 "2008-04-24T15:41:53Z")
[QUOTE=E-Sabbath] SurveyUSA is, again, showing Hillary way the heck ahead. [/QUOTE] In Indiana, yes? ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/48 "2008-04-24T15:46:24Z")
[Indiana polls](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_primary-639.html). ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/49 "2008-04-24T15:57:46Z")
[QUOTE=Biggirl] In Indiana, yes? [/QUOTE] [Answered my own question.](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_primary-639.html) What is it with SUSA and their weird outliers? Every one else has Obama up (3 to 5%). How’d they compare to everyone else in the Pennslyvania primary? ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/50 "2008-04-24T16:28:55Z")
[QUOTE=Biggirl] How’d they compare to everyone else in the Pennslyvania primary? [/QUOTE] SUSA’s final Pennsylvania poll was around 10% like the rest of the final day polling so they did about as well as the next guy. There was polling a couple days before (from other folks) showing it closer to 5-6% but the 4/21 polls ranged from 7-10%. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/51 "2008-04-24T16:46:38Z")
A nit to pick - SUSA’s PA final was like everybody else’s at about 6%, not 10%. They reported a huge shift in the final week, suddenly predicting the same as everybody else and did no better no worse in that sense. They had Hillary up by 18 just 2 weeks earlier. No one else saw huge shifts like that in that time period. Make of that what you will but I can’t take their early polling too seriously if they are an outlier. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/52 "2008-04-24T16:48:04Z")
But before that, even to the end, they were showing Hillary up 17%. ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/53 "2008-04-24T17:05:33Z")
[QUOTE=Jophiel] SUSA’s final Pennsylvania poll was around 10% like the rest of the final day polling so they did about as well as the next guy. There was polling a couple days before (from other folks) showing it closer to 5-6% but the 4/21 polls ranged from 7-10%. [/QUOTE] [SUSA’s 4/20 actually had Clinton by 6%](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html) but look at the two weeks before: Clinton +14 and Clinton +18. I’m just wondering why they continue to have these numbers that are so out of synch with everyone else’s numbers. And what caused that rather large 8 point swing at the very end? After reading that over, I want to clarify that I’m not ragging on SUSA. I’m genuinely curious as to the why of the outliers and big swings. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/54 "2008-04-24T17:12:26Z")
[QUOTE=Biggirl] [After reading that over, I want to clarify that I’m not ragging on SUSA. I’m genuinely curious as to the why of the outliers and big swings. [/QUOTE] Although [this article](http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/21/121146/932) doesn’t really discuss SUSA, it does offer some interesting insight into why some polls differ so much. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/55 "2008-04-24T17:13:06Z")
Oops. I should have confirmed the SUSA number before I posted. My point was that they seemed to “normalize” in the final days but I should have double-checked the numbers. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/56 "2008-04-24T17:22:36Z")
**Biggirl** , I’ve been guessing that there is some methodological difference in how the different players have been defining “likely Democratic voter” … who is going to actually come out given the particular dynamics in which there have been so many new Democrats registered who have not voted Democratic before or, in open primaries, independents and Republicans voting in the Democratic primary, etc. I think that such is an especially hard thing to call this particular cycle and that they are using different metrics to make that determination. Which of course doesn’t explain SUSA’s big flip that no one else saw … ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/57 "2008-04-24T17:42:23Z")
[Obama nabs another superdelegate](http://thepage.time.com/obama-release-on-oregon-superdelegate-endorsement/) > [@](#): > > Today U.S. Congressman David Wu from Oregon announced his support for Senator Barack Obama for president, citing his ability to make real change: > > “I think we are blessed to have two strong candidates for president,” Congressman David Wu said. “I am endorsing Barack Obama for president today because I believe that he is best suited to turn the page on this sorry episode in American history. He and I both had the judgment to oppose the Iraq War from the very beginning. > > . . . > > Wu is Senator Obama’s 240th Superdelegate endorsement. Senator Obama is now 291 delegates away from winning the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination. [43 North Carolina Mayors Endorse Senator Obama](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/zachedwards/gGCBRX) > [@](#): > > In a sign of Senator Obama’s broad, statewide organization, the Obama campaign today announced the endorsement of 43 North Carolina mayors, mayors pro tem, and former mayors, representing cities large and small, from Raleigh to Roper. To encourage North Carolinians to vote early, more than a dozen of these mayors will be voting early today at 1 p.m. at their local One Stop Early Voting locations. > > “As a mayor, I’m on the front lines of local economic development,” said Mayor Bill Bell of Durham. “We need a president who will work with us to solve the problems we face, help working Americans succeed, and usher in a new era of prosperity.” > > . . . [IFPTE Endorses Senator Barack Obama for President](http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGCBRj) > [@](#): > > WASHINGTON, DC – The International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers’ (IFPTE), an AFL-CIO affiliated labor union whose public, private and federal sector membership includes engineers, scientists and technicians at the Department of Defense (DoD), the Department of Energy (DOE), NASA and Boeing, has given their backing to Senator Barack Obama for President of the United States. The IFPTE Executive Council voted without opposition late yesterday to endorse the Illinois Senator. > > . . . ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/58 "2008-04-24T17:51:09Z")
[QUOTE=Gangster Octopus] Although [this article](http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/21/121146/932) doesn’t really discuss SUSA, it does offer some interesting insight into why some polls differ so much. [/QUOTE] Ah, I see that they weigh each area differently AND each demographic differently too. So if one poll has a selection bias (not that I’m saying there is one, only IF) it would not be so simple to pick up. The reason I mention selection bias is because there was some discussion on the under representation of younger voters-- especially college students-- who do not have land lines. I think that would skewer toward Clinton. But, according to the article, PPP skewers Obama consistently. You know, I passed statistics in college but I remember _hating_ that class! ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/59 "2008-04-24T18:08:10Z")
Something has been bothering me (besides the inner workings of pollsters). Hillary’s campaign has been crowing about raising 10 million in 24 hours. That’s what all the news outlets are reporting. [But that’s not exactly what Hillary’s campaign said.](http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/clinton-campaign-reports-surge-of-online-donations/index.html?ref=politics) > [@](#): > > Earlier in the day, Terry McAuliffe, the campaign’s chairman, said on MSNBC that the campaign was on track to pull in $10 million in the 24 hours since she was declared the Pennsylvania winner Well, the 24 hours are up and I haven’t heard what the actual numbers were. Does anyone know? ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2008, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/60 "2008-04-24T18:40:13Z")
[QUOTE=Biggirl] \ Well, the 24 hours are up and I haven’t heard what the actual numbers were. Does anyone know? [/QUOTE] Nope she has not - Hillary Hub and her website do not have it posted. So I doubt it was acheived. However, I did notice something…Clinton’s Branding on her website is atrocious IMHO, the fonts are mechanical and the photos and gushery make it like a brochure page to a cheap all expenses paid vacation to Tijuana. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509.md?page=4)