# Next up: Indiana and North Carolina **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 23, 2008, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509 "2008-04-23T05:15:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2008, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/161 "2008-05-06T14:36:50Z")
[Indiana cancels 1.1 million voter registrations.](http://www.blackboxvoting.org/) Or something, the picture is a little murky. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2008, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/162 "2008-05-06T15:00:43Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] [Indiana cancels 1.1 million voter registrations.](http://www.blackboxvoting.org/) Or something, the picture is a little murky. [/QUOTE] It’s my understanding that they did a long-overdue purge. Indiana has a population of around 6.5 million people. The voting rolls had 5.5 million people on them. That’s something like 115% of the eligible voting population of the state. So they had to purge the rolls (after decades of negligence) and 1.1 million came off (mostly _former_ college students, apparently). From what they were saying on Daily Kos, this was a Bev Harris hand-waving production. The purges were necessary and overdue (Indiana had actually been in trouble with the FEC last year (when the FEC was still a going concern) for the state of their voter rolls). ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2008, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/163 "2008-05-06T15:20:31Z")
[QUOTE=Biggirl] I’m not optimistic. Obama has always polled better than he does at the actual polls. [/QUOTE] Not in the South. Here, he’s _beaten_ the polls. [Pre-primary polling in Georgia had Obama up 50% to 32%](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ga/georgia_democratic_primary-268.html). He won 66% to 31%. [Pre-election polling in South Carolina had Obama up 38.4% to 26.8% (with Edwards polling at 19.2%)](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_primary-234.html). Obama won with 55%. [In Alabama, pre-election polls actually had Hillary up 46% to 44.8%](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/al/alabama_democratic_primary-281.html). Obama won, 55.8% to 41.7%. I predict good things in North Carolina. ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2008, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/164 "2008-05-06T16:13:07Z")
[QUOTE=spoke-] Not in the South. Here, he’s _beaten_ the polls. [Pre-primary polling in Georgia had Obama up 50% to 32%](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ga/georgia_democratic_primary-268.html). He won 66% to 31%. [Pre-election polling in South Carolina had Obama up 38.4% to 26.8% (with Edwards polling at 19.2%)](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_primary-234.html). Obama won with 55%. [In Alabama, pre-election polls actually had Hillary up 46% to 44.8%](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/al/alabama_democratic_primary-281.html). Obama won, 55.8% to 41.7%. I predict good things in North Carolina. [/QUOTE] You and **Shayna** have got my hopes up. I was seriously gloomy but now I’m leaning toward maybe not so bad. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2008, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/165 "2008-05-06T16:25:17Z")
From [CNN](http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/06/primaries.change/?iref=hpmostpop): In North Carolina, the CNN Poll of Polls released Tuesday indicates that **Obama is up by 10 points over Clinton** , 51 percent to 41 percent. A poll of polls released on Monday had Obama up by only 8 points after enjoying weeks of double-digit leads. ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/166 "2008-05-07T00:09:59Z")
Looks like I can breathe a little easier about that less than 5% win in NC. ---
**Author:** ![Beadalin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/3be4f8/32.png) [@Beadalin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beadalin)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/167 "2008-05-07T00:14:28Z")
[NBC projects Obama win in North Carolina](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24481004/?GT1=43001) ---
**Author:** ![Cisco](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@Cisco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cisco)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/168 "2008-05-07T00:17:00Z")
CNN called it for Obama too. 66 to 37 but it keeps changing. ---
**Author:** ![appleciders](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85f322/32.png) [@appleciders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/appleciders)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/169 "2008-05-07T00:28:22Z")
[QUOTE=Biggirl] Looks like I can breathe a little easier about that less than 5% win in NC. [/QUOTE] I should say so- he’s leading by about 30% there. Heckuva blowout, if those numbers hold. I’m disappointed by those numbers in Indiana (10% right now), but I’m waiting for Gary and the other Chicago suburbs to weigh in before panicking. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/170 "2008-05-07T00:47:39Z")
It’s lookin’ good, isn’t it? Obama’s winning big in NC, it’s just a question of _how_ big. Almost surely double digits. The exits are saying 33% of voters are blacks, whites going 59-36 for Hillary, blacks 91-6 Obama, which would add up to Obama by 13. Dunno if the exits are counting early voters or not, but from **LHoD** ’s account in the Drudge thread, apparently not. And apparently the early voting was ~40% black. Meanwhile, the gap in IN seems to get a bit smaller each time I look…54-46 Clinton at the moment. I doubt Obama will win, but even 52-48 would be sweet, and Gary’s still at 0%. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/171 "2008-05-07T00:49:44Z")
Yep. Looks like IN may be \<5% for Hillary. That number may turn out to be smaller than the number of people who voted for her but don’t want her to win the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/172 "2008-05-07T00:53:23Z")
I’m feeling glad to have called it so badly! (Yeah, I’m such an “elite”, I can’t not use the adverb even for the rhyme.) The only question in NC is how overwhelming the Obama blow-out will be (and how many more delegates he picks up there given the lion’s share of the night are there). In Indiana it’s down to an 8% Clinton lead and the counties still out are almost al the more populous Obama leading ones. No way she’s going to get her double digit win there. He might, just might, even eke out a popular vote win. Be it as it may keeping the loss single digits will get the supers to flow more eagerly: Clinton - narrative interrupted. ---
**Author:** ![Biggirl](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biggirl/32/3294_2.png) [@Biggirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biggirl)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/173 "2008-05-07T00:56:06Z")
The change in tone of the coverage from Pennsylvania to today is striking. CNN, MSNBC and FOX all did pieces on how tenuous Clinton’s arguments are. Even though her “plan” was just as fragile 2 weeks ago. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/174 "2008-05-07T01:00:40Z")
[QUOTE=Biggirl] The change in tone of the coverage from Pennsylvania to today is striking. CNN, MSNBC and FOX all did pieces on how tenuous Clinton’s arguments are. Even though her “plan” was just as fragile 2 weeks ago. [/QUOTE] Yes, the narrative has changed completely tonight. They are now talking of an Obama/Clinton ticket, when the opposite was the speculation two weeks ago. It isn’t going to happen either way. It’s been over for a long time, but tonight eliminates any possible spin the media can generate. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/175 "2008-05-07T01:10:21Z")
It’s fun to follow the [actual county-by-county numbers](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IN) with [FiveThirtyEight’s](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/indiana-scorecard.html) county by county predictions. What he did was calibrate according to demographics county by county results that would match the survey predicted 5% Clinton win. Doing better than those numbers overall means less than a 5% Clinton win. Overall he’s doing well by that comparison. Again an outright win is unlikely, but as pointed out already, a loss by less than those who voted as part of “Operation Chaos” is probable. I give it two days of Clinton spin cycle coupled by a flow of supers fabric softening her up and she is hung out to dry. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/176 "2008-05-07T01:10:46Z")
68% reporting in Indiana, Hillary’s lead is down to 5.9%, and her actual vote margin is dropping, now down to 49K. Still no Gary! TPM says CBS called IN for Clinton nearly an hour ago, but nobody else followed. Wise of everyone else. Kinda like what **Lamar** said, there ain’t no way the Clinton crowd can spin this as a good night, or even a half-decent sort of semi-draw, for their team. I think this is what ‘closing the deal’ looks like. ---
**Author:** ![Wildfire\_MM](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f08c70/32.png) [@Wildfire\_MM](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wildfire_MM)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/177 "2008-05-07T01:12:13Z")
Obama wins NC and possible Indiana ---
**Author:** ![Santo\_Rugger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Santo\_Rugger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Santo_Rugger)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/178 "2008-05-07T01:19:00Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] 68% reporting in Indiana, Hillary’s lead is down to 5.9%\ [/QUOTE] 5.9%? She scored _another_ double digit win? :smack: ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/179 "2008-05-07T01:20:04Z")
If Barrack takes Indiana even slightly, we should accept this as a direct expression of Divine Approval. I haven’t put on my dancing shoes yet, but I know where to find them. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2008, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509/180 "2008-05-07T01:24:37Z")
[QUOTE=Santo Rugger] 5.9%? She scored _another_ double digit win? :smack: [/QUOTE] LMAO! Oh yeah: lead’s down to 5.6% and 47,600 votes with 69% reporting. Rural Indiana’s just about counted, but Gary’s still not begun to report! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-indiana-and-north-carolina/446509.md?page=10)