# Next up: Kentucky & Oregon **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 14, 2008, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273 "2008-05-14T13:11:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Jurph](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/50afbb/32.png) [@Jurph](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jurph)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 8:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/61 "2008-05-20T08:48:09Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] Attention will be on the fact that Obama will have hit the majority of the pledged delegates and his speech focused on the battle with McCain that he will give in Iowa. Clinton’s speech that it isn’t over and that her victory in battleground states like Kentucky and West Virginia prove that she is the stronger candidate and that Florida and Michigan need to be counted and … whatever … will be met with rolled eyes across the land. Any one else want to play? Just for the heck of it? [/QUOTE] Sure, but how do I take the “over” on Clintonian whining? ---
**Author:** ![Nancarrow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/c37758/32.png) [@Nancarrow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nancarrow)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 9:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/62 "2008-05-20T09:10:59Z")
“Reporter’s view” piece on the [beeb](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/world/americas/7409591.stm) site at the mo. Take it or leave it, but I couldn’t help chuckling at the first sentence. [QUOTE=BBC article] This week brought news that archaeologists in the battleground state of Oregon had discovered the remains of cave-dwellers thought to be 14,300 years old - which would mean they died just in time to miss the start of the battle for the 2008 Democratic nomination. [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 9:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/63 "2008-05-20T09:40:05Z")
[QUOTE=jayjay] Did you mean to reverse the numbers for Oregon? [/QUOTE] No, I goofed: that should have been O-C 56-43. Good catch. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/64 "2008-05-20T15:46:26Z")
In today’s Oregon news, Chelsea bought popcorn at a grocery store in Springfield. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/65 "2008-05-20T15:48:16Z")
[QUOTE=susan] In today’s Oregon news, Chelsea bought popcorn at a grocery store in Springfield. [/QUOTE] You folks have a lot of slow news days, don’t you? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/66 "2008-05-20T22:54:15Z")
Kentucky just starting to report. Clinton over Obama 50% to 46% Only a slim lead at the moment, but it looks like the major centers are reporting before the more rural areas. I’m supposing that Louisville and Fayette would have more Obama supporters? ---
**Author:** ![AuntiePam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f19dbf/32.png) [@AuntiePam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AuntiePam)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/67 "2008-05-20T23:06:35Z")
I totally don’t get that Hillary’s base is older, white, working class folks. That’s **my** demographic, and I wouldn’t vote for her with **your** ballot. I just don’t get it. Did they leave something out of that description? Older, white, working class, **liked Bill**? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/68 "2008-05-20T23:13:22Z")
CNN now declaring Clinton the winner. 16% reporting, 51% to 46% A 5% margin so far. What were the pundits predicting she’d win by? 30%? Is this indicative of anything, or are we going to see a big Clinton swing when the rural votes are counted? Does anyone have insight about where in the state her votes are going to come from? ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/69 "2008-05-20T23:19:38Z")
The analysis I saw was that the eastern part of the state would report in first thanks to the time zone difference. That’s also the part of the state where Obama should do the best. So they must have a lot of exit polling in the rural eastern part and the western part of the state that says it’s going to go to Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/70 "2008-05-20T23:29:39Z")
There it goes… 56% to 40% (16% difference) with 29% of polls reporting. Clinton will gain what… about 18 net delegates here? And Obama will gain around 10 net delegates in Oregon, giving Clinton a gain of 8 on the night. What a decisive win! ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/71 "2008-05-20T23:40:59Z")
[QUOTE=AuntiePam] I totally don’t get that Hillary’s base is older, white, working class folks. That’s **my** demographic, and I wouldn’t vote for her with **your** ballot. I just don’t get it. Did they leave something out of that description? Older, white, working class, **liked Bill**? [/QUOTE] Racist. ---
**Author:** ![descamisado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e480ec/32.png) [@descamisado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/descamisado)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/72 "2008-05-20T23:42:48Z")
[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic] Racist. [/QUOTE] If you’re serious, how is what she said in her post racist? ---
**Author:** ![Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e99b99/32.png) [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/73 "2008-05-20T23:46:35Z")
[QUOTE=5-4-Fighting] If you’re serious, how is what she said in her post racist? [/QUOTE] Sorry. I wasn’t _calling_ her a racist, I was answering her question about what’s being “left out” of the description of Hillary voters in some of these states. ---
**Author:** ![descamisado](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e480ec/32.png) [@descamisado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/descamisado)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2008, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/74 "2008-05-20T23:54:06Z")
[QUOTE=Diogenes the Cynic] Sorry. I wasn’t _calling_ her a racist, I was answering her question about what’s being “left out” of the description of Hillary voters in some of these states. [/QUOTE] Phew! That didn’t seem like you (at least not without more than what I saw). ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/75 "2008-05-21T01:00:08Z")
> [@](#): > > You folks have a lot of slow news days, don’t you? We spend a lot of time watching grass go to seed. Enjoy CNN talking about the Oregon “polls closing” for a couple more hours. We have 100% mail-in ballots, so “polls closing” means “guy dumps the boxes inside.” ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/76 "2008-05-21T01:21:23Z")
I have to give her credit. With 97% of the vote in she’s running very close to her West Virginia numbers … 35% ahead. And like in West Virginia I am intrigued by the volume of the turn-out. It is on track for about 680K plus. In 2004 the Democratic primary pulled in only 227K voters and not many more came out to vote for Kerry in the general - only 713K. That’s massive turn-out for a primary election that is still for all practical purposes over. Is it that Appalachians love Clinton, despise Obama, or are newly attracted to the Democratic party? Will they really turn to McCain in the general or can Obama win these voters over? ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/77 "2008-05-21T01:29:32Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] That’s massive turn-out for a primary election that is still for all practical purposes over. Is it that Appalachians love Clinton, despise Obama, or are newly attracted to the Democratic party? Will they really turn to McCain in the general or can Obama win these voters over? [/QUOTE] I think a lot of them love Bill Clinton, that coupled with a little “unmentionables” and you’ve got her lopsided victories in appalachia. What I don’t understand is the practically all white northern states who turned out overwhelmingly for Obama. What makes Appalachia so different than those mid-northern white states? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/78 "2008-05-21T01:51:34Z")
Lots of factors. I think that Clinton’s tenacity appeals to the Appalachian ethic. And I think that Appalachian racism is different than racism elsewhere. These are multi-generationally poor White folk. They may not know a lot of Blacks but they have taken some small comfort in the knowledge that Blacks are even lower on the pecking than they are. Seeing a Black man, educated better than they are, seeming to look down on them (or so they have been convinced) and likely to take the highest office of the land? That’s a hard swallow. OTOH I may be stereotyping with that portrayal … minimally however they have no basis to identify with Obama. His first generation story does not resonate with this demographic. Clinton seems more like them, and while skin color is a factor in that I think that it is not all of it. For Northern Whites Obama and his story is something we have heard in our all families and is the quintessential American story. It is our parents’ story if not our own. He epitomizes the hodgepodge stew of America and we know the flavors. The South didn’t used to but now they do. Appalachia is fairly unique in not experiencing it nowadays. Can he do something about that lack of connection with Appalachians by the general? I don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![AuntiePam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f19dbf/32.png) [@AuntiePam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AuntiePam)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/79 "2008-05-21T02:10:04Z")
I haven’t opened all the video links in this thread so maybe this has been shared already. [here’s one](http://video.aol.com/video-detail/the-daily-show-west-virginia-voters-no-interviews-please/2973785445) from Jon Stewart’s show of May 14. It gets ugly about a minute in. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/80 "2008-05-21T02:19:54Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] I think a lot of them love Bill Clinton, that coupled with a little “unmentionables” and you’ve got her lopsided victories in appalachia. What I don’t understand is the practically all white northern states who turned out overwhelmingly for Obama. What makes Appalachia so different than those mid-northern white states? [/QUOTE] It’s not particularly a north-south thing, I think. He also had trouble among white voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania after all. I really think it’s more of a generational divide. _Older_, working class white voters are having a problem with Obama. Appalachia just happens to have a _lot_ of those voters. Wisconsin has a younger demographic. How well would Obama have done in Michigan? Who knows? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273.md?page=5)