# Next up: Kentucky & Oregon **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 14, 2008, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273 "2008-05-14T13:11:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/81 "2008-05-21T02:36:55Z")
An interesting [POV](http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/05/20/appalachia/) regarding the need and potential to reach out to this demographic. > [@](#): > > Yet there is plenty in the numbers to give Obama heart, starting with the 9-point deficit that he and Kerry have in common five months out from the general election. When Kerry was down 9 in rural counties, he had a commanding lead nationally. And that was before he was Swift-boated and before a campaign that advocated almost nothing for rural communities other than the Democratic Party’s reflexive support for farm subsidies, which largely benefit corporate farms. (Only 1 percent of rural Americans earn their primary living on farms, but Democrats don’t know this.) > > Surprisingly, Obama has already achieved the same standing in the polls that Kerry enjoyed when things were going well. And for Obama, this comes after weeks of relentless news coverage of his ex-preacher and after the senator’s own costly “those people” moment when he was caught at a private fundraiser using broad stereotypes to characterize small-town and rural voters. (They are bitter. They cling.) > > What our polling also shows is that rural communities are experiencing measurable economic distress, especially with the out-of-control price of fuel. Rural voters express concern over the mounting cost of healthcare and of the Iraq war. They are also measurably displeased with the country’s direction. On the issues, there is clearly prime territory for Obama to seize. > > Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg says that this year the presidential election could be up for grabs in rural parts of swing states. “This competitiveness reflects the ongoing problems facing the Republican brand, as well as the deep economic anxiety rural voters feel. Concerns about the cost of living are intense, particularly gas prices in a part of the country where many drive long distances to work. Moreover, we see real ambivalence about all three presidential choices – each candidate has a real opportunity to define the race on his or her terms.” > > … > > How Obama fares in rural America may, in the end, have to do with whether he shows up. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/82 "2008-05-21T03:04:08Z")
\*The Oregonian \*calls it for Obama. ETA: Sorry–they report NBC’s call. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/83 "2008-05-21T03:14:47Z")
Okay, now _The Oregonian_ calls it for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/84 "2008-05-21T03:22:05Z")
In 2004 Kerry [won Oregon](http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&fips=41&year=2004) with 943K. Today it seems like nearly the same is to be counted in the Oregon Democratic _primary_, again, in an election that the vast majority of Oregonians believe is already settled! The turn-out in these primaries, whether voting for (or against) Obama, or for (or against) Clinton is amazing. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/85 "2008-05-21T03:23:50Z")
When I encouraged my students to vote today, several responded by waving their ballots in the air. ---
**Author:** ![NajaNivea](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/22d042/32.png) [@NajaNivea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NajaNivea)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/86 "2008-05-21T03:44:33Z")
[QUOTE=susan] In today’s Oregon news, Chelsea bought popcorn at a grocery store in Springfield. [/QUOTE] I swear to Og, I read that out loud, and NajaHusband says: “…which one?!” NajaNivea, reporting live from “Springtucky”, Oregon. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/87 "2008-05-21T03:46:54Z")
Fred Meyer. ETA: Or Smartpop, depending on your question. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/88 "2008-05-21T04:49:02Z")
So, not only does Obama and Clinton split the contests, as expected, Clinton wins KY by the margin I expected, quite close to WV’s. Obama now has the majority of delegates. Clinton, of course, vows to carry on, her rabid supporters seemingly oblvious to the fact that the math has just closed the door on any realistic chance she had for the nomination. Okey dokey. No surprises here at all. ---
**Author:** ![Jurph](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/50afbb/32.png) [@Jurph](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jurph)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/89 "2008-05-21T11:42:07Z")
[QUOTE=Phlosphr] What makes Appalachia so different than those mid-northern white states? [/QUOTE] It’s the economy and the population. “Mid-northern” white folks, especially along the coast, tend to live there because of D.C., Philly, New York, and Boston. Even in the South, Atlanta and the Research Triangle and Charleston have a large geographic influence. Big cities have several layers of college-educated people at the top of the (huge) workforce, who get paid for the privilege. Appalachia’s economy is about pulling stuff out of the ground and processing it into a commodity; commodities are always low-margin, and so extracting and processing them doesn’t pay terribly well for the people doing the grunt work. The population is mostly descended from the Scots-Irish and German immigrants who settled the area originally; not many people move in, so it’s the same hundred pasty-white families that have been there for two centuries. They’ve been living there, poor and insulated, for as long as their families have been in America. The South had the Civil War & reconstruction to shake up the population mix, and several port cities on the Mississippi and Atlantic and Gulf Coasts to bring people and culture in. The east coast has ports and cities to spare. The Great Lakes region had shipping, livestock, fur trading, and manufacturing. The western half of the country has always been a mix of different kinds of settlers. Appalachia is too mountainous for good farming; coal, oil, and steel are pretty much the only thing you can do with the land. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/90 "2008-05-21T12:08:45Z")
Another numbers fact … Obama’s results in his overwhelming loss in KY last night - 209K - was not far off from the _total number_ of Democratic primary voters there in 2004 (230K). Now why is there that kind of turnout? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/91 "2008-05-21T13:15:47Z")
[QUOTE=DSeid] Another numbers fact … Obama’s results in his overwhelming loss in KY last night - 209K - was not far off from the _total number_ of Democratic primary voters there in 2004 (230K). Now why is there that kind of turnout? [/QUOTE] When was the KY primary in 2004? ---
**Author:** ![Grits\_and\_Hard\_Toast](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a183cd/32.png) [@Grits\_and\_Hard\_Toast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grits_and_Hard_Toast)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/92 "2008-05-21T13:41:03Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] When was the KY primary in 2004? [/QUOTE] The primary was around the same time as this year. But IIRC, the two presidential candidates were already decided, and there really wasn’t much else on the ballot. No close races to decide, mostly incumbents who would win their nominations unopposed or against weak candidates. I generally vote in each election, but that was a year I could have easily skipped. I suppose now Kentucky will be labeled an incredibly racist state, but living here I know the folks really LOVED Bill, and would give anything to have him back in office. My guess is that many people saw a vote for Hillary as a vote bringing Bill back in office. Over the years, the Clintons spent quite a bit of time here, so no matter who ran against Hillary, I think she would have easily won. During this campaign, Bill, Hillary and Chelsea were all over the state at very public events, including the Kentucky Derby. It seemed that the Obama events I heard about were more of the private kind. Had the campaign not gotten so divisive, I would think many of the Hillary voters would switch to whoever the Dem candidate would be. But under the circumstances, many are saying they will stay at home, or take a second look at McCain. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/93 "2008-05-21T14:05:54Z")
[QUOTE=Grits and Hard Toast] Had the campaign not gotten so divisive, I would think many of the Hillary voters would switch to whoever the Dem candidate would be. But under the circumstances, many are saying they will stay at home, or take a second look at McCain. [/QUOTE] And this is what chaps me, right here. The Clinton camp was the cause of much of the divisiveness her supporters are using as a reason not to vote for Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Grits\_and\_Hard\_Toast](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a183cd/32.png) [@Grits\_and\_Hard\_Toast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grits_and_Hard_Toast)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/94 "2008-05-21T14:22:42Z")
[QUOTE=Onomatopoeia] And this is what chaps me, right here. The Clinton camp was the cause of much of the divisiveness her supporters are using as a reason not to vote for Obama. [/QUOTE] From what the news was reporting last night, polls indicated that about 30% of Clinton supporters would vote for Obama, and about 50% of Obama supporters would vote for Clinton. So both sides are likely wanting to punish the other candidate, but a higher % of them are in the Hillary Camp. Now this is without having heard a thing from McCain. Those numbers may change once the general election campaigning starts… ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/95 "2008-05-21T14:31:50Z")
Please. Is there good evidence that large numbers of voters won’t vote for their candidate in the general election, regardless of their rhetoric during the froth-mouthed primary? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/96 "2008-05-21T14:33:25Z")
[QUOTE=susan] Please. Is there good evidence that large numbers of voters won’t vote for their candidate in the general election, regardless of their rhetoric during the froth-mouthed primary? [/QUOTE] Sure. Reagan would not have won in 1980 without the votes of disaffected Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/97 "2008-05-21T14:43:51Z")
[QUOTE=Grits and Hard Toast] From what the news was reporting last night, polls indicated that about 30% of Clinton supporters would vote for Obama, and about 50% of Obama supporters would vote for Clinton. [/QUOTE] I find it hard to trust those polls. As long as one side thinks there’s something to gain by threatening the other, they’ll do so. Once there’s nothing left to gain for their side, the motivation isn’t the same. ---
**Author:** ![AtomicDog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ac91a4/32.png) [@AtomicDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AtomicDog)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/98 "2008-05-21T15:00:29Z")
[QUOTE=susan] When I encouraged my students to vote today, several responded by waving their ballots in the air. [/QUOTE] Did they wave them like they just did not care? ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/99 "2008-05-21T15:40:39Z")
[QUOTE=AtomicDog] Did they wave them like they just did not care? [/QUOTE] Heh. Good one 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Flipshod](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/f19dbf/32.png) [@Flipshod](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Flipshod)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2008, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273/100 "2008-05-21T15:53:27Z")
[QUOTE=AtomicDog] Did they wave them like they just did not care? [/QUOTE] 😃 That would be “AS IF they just did not care.” 😃 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-up-kentucky-oregon/449273.md?page=6)