# Next US Supreme Court Justice to be replaced? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 8, 2010, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-us-supreme-court-justice-to-be-replaced/549603 "2010-08-08T16:02:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2010, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-us-supreme-court-justice-to-be-replaced/549603/1 "2010-08-08T16:02:49Z")
So who do you think will be the next Justice of the Supreme Court to die or retire? Their average age is 64 with Ginsberg being the oldest (at 77) and Kagan being the youngest (at 50). Scalia and Kennedy aren’t much younger than Ginsberg, both turned 74 this year. AFAIK he’s in good health, but even if he isn’t Scalia will die in office rather than retire under an Obama presidency. I’m goind to go with Ginsburg. She has been in poor health for awhile, her husband is dead (though that could also one _less_ reason to retire), and she underwent surgery for pancreatic cancer last year. She’s denied that she’s planning on retiring anytime soon, but I think it’s very possible she might change her mind in the next 2 years (ie before the presidential election). She could also die. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2010, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-us-supreme-court-justice-to-be-replaced/549603/2 "2010-08-08T17:14:12Z")
I agree on Ginsburg. She’s the oldest Justice and she’s had health problems. And she’d feel “safe” retiring with Obama in office. > [@](#): > > AFAIK he’s in good health, but even if he isn’t Scalia will die in office rather than retire under an Obama presidency. I’d take it further than that. Scalia will never retire regardless of who’s in office. Scalia sees himself as irreplacable - the only person in American history who knows what the Constitution really means. ---
**Author:** ![glowacks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/glowacks/32/5548_2.png) [@glowacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glowacks)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2010, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-us-supreme-court-justice-to-be-replaced/549603/3 "2010-08-08T17:43:55Z")
I thought Ginsburg had already retired! She definitely gets my vote. ---
**Author:** ![pravnik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/8edcca/32.png) [@pravnik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pravnik)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2010, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-us-supreme-court-justice-to-be-replaced/549603/4 "2010-08-08T18:01:26Z")
Definitely Ginsberg. I wouldn’t be surprised if she retired after the midterms. ---
**Author:** ![Hello\_Again](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/85e7bf/32.png) [@Hello\_Again](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hello_Again)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2010, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-us-supreme-court-justice-to-be-replaced/549603/5 "2010-08-08T19:38:44Z")
In a recent speech Justice Thomas said he doesn’t really enjoy the job, although he considers it extremely important service. Although Ginsberg is older and in worse health, she definitely enjoys the job. She, like Scalia, is only leaving office one way and that’s feet first. So I’m going to say Thomas will be the first to retire voluntarily, if Ginsberg doesn’t die first. ---
**Author:** ![needscoffee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/needscoffee/32/1076_2.png) [@needscoffee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/needscoffee)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2010, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-us-supreme-court-justice-to-be-replaced/549603/6 "2010-08-08T19:42:30Z")
Ginsburg, when Bush was president, told a local group here that she would like to retire, but would never do so while Bush was in office. Now that he’s gone, she is free to do so. On the other hand, her husband just passed away, and since she supposedly likes the job, she might prefer to stay in it and keep busy. ---
**Author:** ![needscoffee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/needscoffee/32/1076_2.png) [@needscoffee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/needscoffee)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2010, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-us-supreme-court-justice-to-be-replaced/549603/7 "2010-08-08T19:43:47Z")
> [@Hello\_Again](#): > > In a recent speech Justice Thomas said he doesn’t really enjoy the job, although he considers it extremely important service. Although Ginsberg is older and in worse health, she definitely enjoys the job. She, like Scalia, is only leaving office one way and that’s feet first. > > So I’m going to say Thomas will be the first to retire voluntarily[…] I’m keeping my fingers crossed. ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2010, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/next-us-supreme-court-justice-to-be-replaced/549603/8 "2010-08-08T20:52:50Z")
I recall reading a few years ago that Scalia had considered stepping down so he could spend a few years making big bucks before he retires. Might have been wishful thinking, though, and it seems particularly unlikely while Obama is in office.