# NFL 2021: Week Three Wise Men **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-nfl\ **Created:** [September 23, 2021, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194 "2021-09-23T14:02:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2021, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/81 "2021-09-27T20:09:02Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Sure it’s all based on their “win probability stats”, which are nice and all, but cannot possibly incorporate all the factors that should go into the decision. Can you elaborate on what you mean here? The legitimate factors I can think of should all go into the win probability, though I think you could argue - and perhaps you are arguing - it isn’t being measured precisely enough. There are illegitimate factors, though, that don’t go into win probability, and should not be considered, though we all know that they are. Such as which decision, should it not go well, will lead to greater criticism to the coach. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2021, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/82 "2021-09-27T20:50:38Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > > [@Hamlet](#): > > > > Sure it’s all based on their “win probability stats”, which are nice and all, but cannot possibly incorporate all the factors that should go into the decision. > > Can you elaborate on what you mean here? The legitimate factors I can think of should all go into the win probability, though I think you could argue - and perhaps you are arguing - it isn’t being measured precisely enough. The first problem I have is with the very concept of determining win probability based on past performance. As my financial advisor always reminds me: past performance is not indicative of future results. The fact that the Patriots scored a TD instead of a field goal against the Jets with 2:15 left in 2018 (or whatever past events are being used to create the win probability) is great and all, but it really doesn’t fit my teams’ situation in this game. Breaking down every teams actions to create a single standard of “average NFL team/game/situation” to compare your current situation to ignores so much of what really matters. My particular issue with the above [NFL.com](http://NFL.com) quote was that the 2% win probability decrease was so small as to be insignificant. There are like 10-30 different groups creating “win probability percentages” and they don’t all agree. They aren’t the steadfast rules, just guidelines. And deciding someone was wrong based on just a 2% decrease in win probability is just silly. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2021, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/83 "2021-09-27T20:52:34Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > The first problem I have is with the very concept of determining win probability based on past performance. As my financial advisor always reminds me: past performance is not indicative of future results. The fact that the Patriots scored a TD instead of a field goal against the Jets with 2:15 left in 2018 (or whatever past events are being used to create the win probability) is great and all, but it really doesn’t fit my teams’ situation in this game. Breaking down every teams actions to create a single standard of “average NFL team/game/situation” to compare your current situation to ignores so much of what really matters. I think you’re saying that you don’t think it’s being measured accurately/precisely enough, which I largely agree with. > [@Hamlet](#): > > My particular issue with the above [NFL.com](http://NFL.com) quote was that the 2% win probability decrease was so small as to be insignificant. There are like 10-30 different groups creating “win probability percentages” and they don’t all agree. They aren’t the steadfast rules, just guidelines. And deciding someone was wrong based on just a 2% decrease in win probability is just silly. I actually meant to reply to this the first time: I completely agree. That’s well within the margin of error, and _in this case_, I don’t think their conclusion is supported. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2021, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/84 "2021-09-27T21:00:04Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > I think you’re saying that you don’t think it’s being measured accurately/precisely enough, which I largely agree with. Your way of saying it is much more concise. But you ended the sentence with a preposition, so you decreased your winning an argument probability by 6.32%. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2021, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/85 "2021-09-27T21:48:01Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Giants were trailing 17-15 up to that point and the talk of the moment was that they should kneel the clock all the way down then kick a game-winning field goal (would have only been a 21-yard attempt or so.) > > The Giants did win eventually, 21-17. But had they lost, Bradshaw would have gotten severe criticism. Why did they only have 21 points? Did they go for 2 and fail? I don’t see how being up 6 would have been any advantage to being up 5; either way a FG wouldn’t be enough for the Patriots to get out of the hole and a TD would give the Patriots the lead. Or did they miss the extra point kick? If so, then I wouldn’t have trusted the kicker to make a short field goal, and the TD he had was clearly something nobody could criticize. I’m too lazy to look this up, but something didn’t seem right there. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2021, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/86 "2021-09-27T21:53:02Z")
They went for two and failed. The reason they went for two was because being up 22-17 offers absolutely zero advantage if the Patriots scored a touchdown (the Giants would lose no matter what,) whereas being up 23-17 would at least mean that if the Patriots scored a touchdown but missed the extra point, the game would be tied 23-23 and go to overtime. Granted, missed extra points were extremely rare back then. But every tiny bit of advantage helps. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2021, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/87 "2021-09-27T21:58:32Z")
Interesting article about how bad rookie QBs have been. > **[Rookie quarterbacks off to an ugly start - ProFootballTalk](https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/09/27/rookie-quarterbacks-off-to-an-ugly-start/)** > > This year’s draft class was supposed to be loaded with quarterback talent. It may still prove to be. But the rookie quarterback class of 2021 is off to an ugly start.Through three weeks, teams starting a rookie quarterback are 1-10 this season:... There’s only been one win and that’s Mac Jones against the pathetic Jets ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2021, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/88 "2021-09-27T22:05:46Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > There’s only been one win and that’s Mac Jones against the pathetic Jets And that, against another rookie quarterback in Zach Wilson, meaning that, barring a tie, _some_ rookie QB was going to get a win out of that game. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2021, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/89 "2021-09-27T22:15:53Z")
I was looking at the NFL scores at some point during the weekend and one team (might have been the Raiders) had 19 points. That’s an unusual score for an NFL game, I thought. I think it turned out they had two touchdowns, a field goal, and a safety. Did the field goal and safety come first? I don’t think I’ve ever seen a football team with 5 points. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2021, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/90 "2021-09-27T22:33:57Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > Which do you want, ahead by 3 and kicking off with 1:30 left; or down by 4, third-and-goal, 20 seconds left? I suppose it depends on how you feel about your short yardage game and the opposing team’s QB. Also if you have time outs. If you’re Tom Brady with an uncanny ability to successfully convert QB sneaks, I think I’d always want to have the ball in his hands with 20 seconds left. If I have a time out left, that counts double. Even without a time out I feel good about getting a second attempt lined with on 4th down with 20 seconds on the clock. Same basic rules apply if I have the Browns or Titans RBs. Conversely, if I’m facing a rookie QB (or the Bears in any situation) I’m OK giving them the ball back. > [@Hamlet](#): > > FOURTH QUARTER: With 0:36 remaining and the Chargers (tied 24-24) facing a first-and-goal from the Chiefs’ 4-yard line, Los Angeles’ Justin Herbert finds Mike Williams in the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown. This is one case where I think the Chargers actually defied convention. We saw this in the Falcons-Giants game. Atlanta had the ball in a tie game, 1st and 10 on the 25 yard line with about a minute left. The Falcons basically centered the ball for 3 downs and kicked the FG with zero time on the clock. You could argue that the Chargers did a really stupid thing by throwing the ball in the end zone in that situation, and if Mahomes had pulled a Rodgers you’d have the 7 Chargers fans that exist calling for the coach’s head. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2021, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/91 "2021-09-27T22:52:46Z")
The Cowboys many years ago beat the Lions 5-0 in the 1970 playoffs (I remain a stat geek and that score stuck in my mind). ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2021, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/92 "2021-09-27T23:01:26Z")
19 points isn’t rare at all; it’s seen every now and then (usually a touchdown and four field goals). Some unusual scores are: Eagles 23-11 Giants (only 23-11 score in history) ---
**Author:** ![keeganst94](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/a6a055/32.png) [@keeganst94](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/keeganst94)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2021, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/93 "2021-09-27T23:06:45Z")
Link to the excellent Jon Bois video on _[Scorigami](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9l5C8cGMueY&t=365s)_: the practice of getting never-before-seen football scores, including the massively-unlikely-but-still-technically-possible score of 6-1. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2021, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/94 "2021-09-27T23:13:27Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The reason they went for two was because being up 22-17 offers absolutely zero advantage if the Patriots scored a touchdown (the Giants would lose no matter what,) whereas being up 23-17 would at least mean that if the Patriots scored a touchdown but missed the extra point, the game would be tied 23-23 and go to overtime. Ah, that makes sense. I hadn’t thought about the possibility of the Patriots getting a TD and missing the point after. I guess that’s why I’m not a coach. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2021, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/95 "2021-09-27T23:18:50Z")
> [@keeganst94](#): > > Link to the excellent Jon Bois video on _[Scorigami](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9l5C8cGMueY&t=365s)_ : the practice of getting never-before-seen football scores, including the massively-unlikely-but-still-technically-possible score of 6-1. There’s only been one 43-8 game ever. It was a Super Bowl. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2021, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/96 "2021-09-28T00:29:53Z")
Hurts throws an interception on a very poorly underthrown ball. Not a great start for the Iggles. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2021, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/97 "2021-09-28T00:32:19Z")
I don’t think Hurts is a starter; he could be a backup or a gadget QB but he can’t throw the ball deep with any reliable accuracy. That was why he lost his starting job at Alabama. Fortunately, the Eagles front four is for real. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2021, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/98 "2021-09-28T00:32:56Z")
And Dak gives it right back. Ugly. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2021, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/99 "2021-09-28T00:34:01Z")
I’m really interested to see the Eagles front four against the Cowboys offensive line. The first drive went to the Cowboys but the Eagles clearly responded with that strip. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2021, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194/100 "2021-09-28T00:41:49Z")
I’m actually digging the Manning thing. I didn’t think I would but I dig it, especially when they bring in guests. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2021-week-three-wise-men/951194.md?page=6)