# NFL 2022: Week Eighteen Wheeler **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-nfl\ **Created:** [January 5, 2023, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724 "2023-01-05T15:00:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724/161 "2023-01-10T06:05:56Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > My position is that ending up with only 3 plays is more costly than ending up with 5 plays is beneficial. You disagree, I can’t prove it, but neither can you. Because the odds of failing to get a first down when you need one yard is very small. It’s around 30%. You have a 70% chance of picking up that first down. Forcing them to burn one more timeout. The statistics say it was the right move. If you accept the penalty you’re giving up that opportunity. You’re saying, even though there’s a 70% chance any team could convert this, I don’t think my offense can. It’s objectively the better call to decline. The proof is the math. This article gets into details, and it’s talking about 4th down, but there’s no difference between success on 4th and 1 or 2nd and 1. [https://sports.sites.yale.edu/success-short-yardage-play-types-fourth-down](https://sports.sites.yale.edu/success-short-yardage-play-types-fourth-down) ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724/162 "2023-01-10T06:06:35Z")
You risk one play to gain one play, and the chance it pays out is almost certainly far north of 50%. The expected value is positive. Ignoring what they actually did after that, let’s examine what happens if you run every time. I don’t remember how much time was left, so let’s say 2:30 and 5 seconds per play. (Runs for zero are quick.) In all cases, once you get 1st & 10 you run it four times for no gain and turn it over and downs. Decline penalty, fail to convert: Lose a yard, burn a time out, lose a yard, burn a timeout. The clock is now stopped at 2:20 on fourth down. Decline penalty, convert: Gain a yard, burn a time out, lose a yard, burn a timeout, lose a yard, 2:00 warning. Lose a yard, then turn it over on downs around 1:15. Accept penalty: Lose a yard, burn a time out, lose a yard, burn a timeout, lose a yard, 2:00 warning. Turn it over on downs with 1:55 left. In all cases, the Packers are left with no timeouts. The only variable is when the Packers get the ball. Let’s assume the 70% success rate handing the ball off on 4th and 1 holds true for our 2nd and one situation. (You could fairly challenge this assumption, but it seems reasonable.) 70% chance they get the ball at 1:15 30% chance they get the ball at 2:20 or 100% chance they get the ball at 1:55 I’m taking that risk. 1:55 is more time than Aaron Rodgers needs. I don’t see a meaningful difference between that and 2:20. Honestly 1:15 is still too much time to give him, but it’s way better than 1:55. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 6:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724/163 "2023-01-10T06:24:37Z")
Correction: In the first scenario it’s only fourth down at 2:20. The Packers take possession at 2:15. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 7:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724/164 "2023-01-10T07:48:38Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > In all cases, the Packers are left with no timeouts. The only variable is when the Packers get the ball. Let’s assume the 70% success rate handing the ball off on 4th and 1 holds true for our 2nd and one situation. (You could fairly challenge this assumption, but it seems reasonable.) > > 70% chance they get the ball at 1:15 > 30% chance they get the ball at 2:20 They would have 3 attempts, so I think the success rate is probably quite a bit higher. I’m not sure how to quantify it but giving Rodgers the ball with the 2 minute warning to work with means he has a lot more options. It’s 2:15 + the stoppage vs 1:55. ---
**Author:** ![Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a587f6/32.png) [@Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freddy_the_Pig)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724/165 "2023-01-10T17:12:00Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > > [@Omniscient](#): > > > > My position is that ending up with only 3 plays is more costly than ending up with 5 plays is beneficial. You disagree, I can’t prove it, but neither can you. > > Because the odds of failing to get a first down when you need one yard is very small. It’s around 30%. You have a 70% chance of picking up that first down. You are severely under-selling your own argument. If you fail to get a first-down on second-and-one you go for it again, and if you fail on third-and-one you go for it _again._ The chance of failure is 0.3 \* 0.3 \* 0.3 = 2.7%. “Going for it” on second-and-one has a 97.3% chance of success and a 2.7% chance of failure. That’s why the benefit of “going for it” (at least one extra play) so greatly outweighs the drawbacks of failure (one fewer play.) None of this is new. As noted, a parallel situation arose in the 2021 conference championship, one of the most watched and analyzed football games of the year. It’s well understood that, when you’re trying to get the ball back late in the game, second-and-one fellates dead animals. The Packers knew it, the Lions knew it, the analysts know it, and most of the people posting in this thread know it. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724/166 "2023-01-10T17:32:05Z")
> [@Freddy\_the\_Pig](#): > > You are severely under-selling your own argument. If you fail to get a first-down on second-and-one you go for it again, and if you fail on third-and-one you go for it _again._ The chance of failure is 0.3 \* 0.3 \* 0.3 = 2.7%. I didn’t go that route because your scenario is implausible. Not impossible, but implausible. The chances of going for it on second and third down, with only 1 yard to gain, and failing to convert while still only having one yard to gain by 4th down are slim. Presumably they’re running on each play to burn off time. Most likely there would be a tackle for loss which changes the odds quite a bit. When you extrapolate past the first play there is too much uncertainty due to too many variables and that 70% probability is no longer reliable. So I kept it simple, because it **is** pretty simple. But I did definitely consider that when it’s 2nd and 1, you’re going to have a couple chances. It’s an ideal situation to be in, one that’s completely wasted if you accept the penalty. Honestly, what would have been even better than picking up the 1st down is getting a half yard, and then being at 3rd and less than a yard. That forces the Packers to burn yet another timeout. Then you can pick up an even easier first down and get a fresh set of downs. But that in itself is risky. Getting just a half a yard and no more on a rushing attempt with 22 people on the field running around in chaos is harder than just trying to get one yard or more. Something that precise on a football field just seems like it’s asking for something to go wrong. And I doubt anyone bothers to come up with a “half yard gain” in the playbook, because how often would you use it? Never for most teams. Would you have bothered practicing? Anyway, just a fantasy, it’s better to just try to pick it up with a run. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724/167 "2023-01-10T17:43:00Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > And I doubt anyone bothers to come up with a “half yard gain” in the playbook They call it a QB sneak. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724/168 "2023-01-10T17:51:38Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > They call it a QB sneak. That’s still hard to pull off and **not** get the first down I would imagine. But I agree that it would probably be the best way to attempt it. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724/169 "2023-01-10T18:53:43Z")
> [@Freddy\_the\_Pig](#): > > If you fail to get a first-down on second-and-one you go for it again, and if you fail on third-and-one you go for it _again._ And this is what someone in this thread couldn’t comprehend. Failure on second down is not necessarily a bad thing, provided you convert on third or fourth down. In fact, failing on second down and converting on third, and certainly on fourth, essentially seals the game. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724/170 "2023-01-10T19:19:09Z")
The defense was already willing to give up a penalty. I don’t think they even really try to stop you converting 2nd & 1 in that spot. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724/171 "2023-01-10T19:48:29Z")
And more precedent, again oddly from the Packers. In Super Bowl XXXII with Denver on the 1-yard line and the game tied, the Packers let the Broncos score to preserve time on the clock for an attempted drive to tie it back up. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724/172 "2023-01-10T20:47:52Z")
Sometimes football gets weird. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724/173 "2023-01-10T20:55:11Z")
“Sometimes”? ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2023, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724/174 "2023-01-10T22:01:32Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > The defense was already willing to give up a penalty. I don’t think they even really try to stop you converting 2nd & 1 in that spot. Certainly looked like the Packers were trying on that play. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2023, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724/175 "2023-01-11T00:48:30Z")
I agree. I can even imagine the thought process… “Oh, you don’t want the first down? Well then fine, we’ll stuff you until you give us the ball back!” ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2023, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724/176 "2023-01-14T19:49:28Z")
Saw a nice bit of news this morning- the Seahawks and their fans have made over 700 donations to the Lions Foundation to thank the Lions for knocking the Packers out of the playoffs. > **[Seahawks fans donate $20,000 to Lions’ charity after Detroit ousts Packers](https://www.mlive.com/lions/2023/01/seahawks-fans-donate-20000-to-lions-charity-after-detroit-ousts-packers.html)** > > The Lions report they received 700-plus donations, with many coming in $12 (Seahawks fans), $2,016 (Lions beat Packers 20-16), $30 (for Jamaal Williams) and $313 (for Detroit) increments. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-eighteen-wheeler/977724.md?page=8)