# NFL 2022: Week Sixteen Candles

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Tags:** football-nfl\
**Created:** [December 22, 2022, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966 "2022-12-22T19:08:58Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 2

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**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\
**Post date:** [December 23, 2022, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/21 "2022-12-23T16:18:32Z")

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The Cowboys are essentially locked into the No. 5 seed. They might as well play all their backups for the next three games.

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**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\
**Post date:** [December 23, 2022, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/22 "2022-12-23T16:26:42Z")

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> [@Southern\_Yankee](#):
>
> How do teams with so much money to spend on scouting and so much time to prepare for the draft whiff so often?

Predicting success in the NFL based on college experience has always been a highly inexact science, particularly at quarterback. More scouting and better analytics in recent years don’t seem to have materially affected the success rate, even for teams that are generally felt to be among the best at it.

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**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\
**Post date:** [December 23, 2022, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/23 "2022-12-23T16:30:27Z")

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Vinny was an average-at-best QB for his career, but by far his best two seasons were with the Jets. That was during the Curtis Martin-John Abraham-Wayne Chrebet era. I remember liking that team. They always had some fatal flaw, but they were a scrappy bunch. And of course that Dolphins game…

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**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\
**Post date:** [December 23, 2022, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/24 "2022-12-23T16:57:41Z")

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I was at that game! So good.

EDIT: Oh this is embarrassing. I’m late in the 3rd, and Wilson has been pulled for sucking and replaced with the wildcat quarterback. Not even Joe Flacco. This guy looks like a TE trying to throw, but yet is wildly more successful than Wilson was to this point.

Dude looks like a rugby player. Crowd going wild for him after booing Wilson mercilessly all game.

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**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\
**Post date:** [December 23, 2022, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/25 "2022-12-23T17:12:34Z")

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This is true, although I can’t help but think of the 1998 Draft where it should have been blatantly obvious that Ryan Leaf was much worse than Peyton Manning when the two were asked what they’d do after being drafted and Peyton said he’d immediately pack his bags and head to Indy while Leaf said he’d go party in Vegas.

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**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\
**Post date:** [December 23, 2022, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/26 "2022-12-23T17:23:32Z")

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> [@Velocity](#):
>
> This is true, although I can’t help but think of the 1998 Draft where it should have been blatantly obvious that Ryan Leaf was much worse than Peyton Manning

Sometimes, teams just fall in love with a player, and develop a blind spot on what (particularly in retrospect) should have been glaring warning signs. The Raiders, in particular, have often been guilty of this.

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**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\
**Post date:** [December 23, 2022, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/27 "2022-12-23T17:29:00Z")

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> [@DCnDC](#):
>
> Think we can just about close the book on Zach Wilson. Maybe he’ll get his shit together and have a Geno Smith-like renaissance 8-10 years from now, but right now he’s looking like a career backup QB, at best.

Agreed. After last night, I don’t think he ever starts another Jets game again.

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**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\
**Post date:** [December 23, 2022, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/28 "2022-12-23T18:03:31Z")

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> [@kenobi\_65](#):
>
> More scouting and better analytics in recent years don’t seem to have materially affected the success rate, even for teams that are generally felt to be among the best at it.

This [list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_starting_quarterbacks_in_the_National_Football_League) from Wikipedia shows the most recent starting qb through week 15 for each team, and the pick in which they were drafted. Three of the 32 were drafted #1 overall (Burrow, Goff, Mayfield), while three were undrafted (Rypien, Heinicke, Huntley). And of course, Brock Purdy was taken with the last pick of last year’s draft. Mr. Irrelevant is 2-0 as an NFL starter.

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**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\
**Post date:** [December 23, 2022, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/29 "2022-12-23T19:37:19Z")

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> [@Velocity](#):
>
> This is true, although I can’t help but think of the 1998 Draft where it should have been blatantly obvious that Ryan Leaf was much worse than Peyton Manning when the two were asked what they’d do after being drafted and Peyton said he’d immediately pack his bags and head to Indy while Leaf said he’d go party in Vegas.

Many NFL GMs and head coaches are convinced that if a player has outstanding physical tools (Leaf was 6’5", 240, and had a rocket arm), their genius coaching/guidance can handle the rest. Sometimes it works out (Josh Allen), sometimes it doesn’t.

I will also note the GM who drafted Leaf (Bobby Beathard) had a great deal of success (7 Super Bowl trips, 4 of them wins) and was inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame in 2018.

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**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\
**Post date:** [December 23, 2022, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/30 "2022-12-23T20:10:07Z")

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> [@Hamlet](#):
>
> Many NFL GMs and head coaches are convinced that if a player has outstanding physical tools (Leaf was 6’5", 240, and had a rocket arm), their genius coaching/guidance can handle the rest. Sometimes it works out (Josh Allen), sometimes it doesn’t.

And, conversely, a number of quarterbacks who’ve excelled in the NFL slipped out of the first round, specifically because scouts and GMs had doubts over their height, arm strength, etc. Joe Montana, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and (most famously) Tom Brady all were drafted after the first round, largely because of how they were scored on their “physical tools”; Montana, Wilson, and Brady wound up being drafted in the third round or later.

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**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\
**Post date:** [December 24, 2022, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/31 "2022-12-24T15:52:52Z")

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A Texas judge has ordered Jerry Jones to submit to genetic testing to determine if he’s the father of a young woman.

> **[Judge orders paternity test for Cowboys owner Jerry Jones](https://apnews.com/article/dallas-cowboys-sports-lawsuits-b12f81a495b746d11626cf2851aea2db)**
>
> DALLAS (AP) — A judge has ordered Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones to take a paternity test as part of a legal dispute with a 26-year-old woman who claims the billionaire is her biological father. A Texas judge issued the order for genetic testing...

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**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\
**Post date:** [December 24, 2022, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/32 "2022-12-24T19:01:09Z")

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Game in Nashville was delayed by an hour by request of the mayor due to power issues in the area. I think that’s a new one to me.

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**Author:** ![SwissMan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e79b87/32.png) [@SwissMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SwissMan)\
**Post date:** [December 24, 2022, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/33 "2022-12-24T19:45:24Z")

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The temperatures in Nashville have been frigid, to say the least, and the state of Tennessee has had rolling blackouts due to demand exceeding supply. Similar to what happened in Texas back in 2021.

Of course, social media has been pointing out how Nissan Stadium and every bar in Nashville had all of their lights on at 6:30 AM, when nobody was around.

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**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\
**Post date:** [December 24, 2022, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/34 "2022-12-24T21:10:47Z")

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Well that was brutal. Daniel Jones looked like a real quarterback for most of that game, but what a heartbreaker at the end. Tip of the hat to the Vikings.

Giants still have not clinched a winning season.

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**Author:** ![SuntanLotion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suntanlotion/32/16165_2.png) [@SuntanLotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuntanLotion)\
**Post date:** [December 24, 2022, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/35 "2022-12-24T21:32:31Z")

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So did Watson overthrow, or was it the wind?

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**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\
**Post date:** [December 24, 2022, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/36 "2022-12-24T21:49:38Z")

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And the Texans finally get a win. Titans have now lost five in a row. Jags lead the division with a 7-8 record.

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**Author:** ![zimaane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a3d4f5/32.png) [@zimaane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zimaane)\
**Post date:** [December 24, 2022, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/37 "2022-12-24T23:53:55Z")

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Commanders have pulled Taylor Heinicke in favor of Carson Wentz.

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**Author:** ![SuntanLotion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suntanlotion/32/16165_2.png) [@SuntanLotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuntanLotion)\
**Post date:** [December 25, 2022, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/38 "2022-12-25T00:43:43Z")

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Eagles Cowboys was the most exciting game in a long time.

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**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\
**Post date:** [December 25, 2022, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/39 "2022-12-25T01:02:34Z")

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The Commanders losing put Green Bay one step closer to actually making the playoffs, which would clear up my blackened heart right quick. Only four results matter, and Green Bay controls three of them. Win out, with the Commanders losing against either the Browns or the Cowboys, and they’re in. Unfortunately, winning out against Minnesota and Detroit at home and the Dolphins in Miami is a tall order, and I don’t trust either the Browns or the Cowboys to take care of business.

Also, am I the only one that thinks Deshaun Watson looks like hot garbage? Maybe the Browns should just cut him and hope they can find another worst person in the NFL to be quarterback. Or maybe I just want Watson to no longer play football for money.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\
**Post date:** [December 25, 2022, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2022-week-sixteen-candles/976966/40 "2022-12-25T01:35:23Z")

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If I calculated correctly (a dubious assertion), the Panthers will win their division if they win out. Brady not making the playoffs in perhaps his last season wouldn’t make me mad.

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