# NFL 2023-2024: Divisional Round **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-nfl\ **Created:** [January 17, 2024, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226 "2024-01-17T14:33:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2024, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/81 "2024-01-21T23:17:53Z")
Going for 2 in that situation is pretty clearly the correct choice. The decision only matters if you end up getting the second TD afterwards. If you make the 2 point, then the second TD wins you the game. If you miss the 2 point, then the second TD still gets you overtime if you get a 2 point there. So basically, you win in regulation by getting one 2 point, but you only lose in regulation if you miss _2_ 2 points. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2024, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/82 "2024-01-21T23:22:29Z")
> [@borschevsky](#): > > you win in regulation by getting one 2 point By getting the first 2 point. If you miss the first but make the second, you tie in regulation by getting one 2 point. Of course this all assumes that kicking PATs is 100%, which they are not. If you kick both times you are not guaranteed to tie in regulation. ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2024, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/83 "2024-01-21T23:24:15Z")
Yes, that’s what I was trying to say, but I probably made it more confusing by trying to be succinct 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2024, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/84 "2024-01-21T23:35:31Z")
As a Michigan-based football fan, this is hands-down the best January of my 48 Januaries. I know San Fran is gonna be tough, but i am so looking forward to next Sunday. ETA: OK, i just remembered my first-born was born 15 Januaries ago, so this is hands-down the _second-best_ January of my 48 Januaries. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2024, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/85 "2024-01-21T23:39:03Z")
According to this [NY Times article](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/13/upshot/nfl-playoffs-2-point-conversion.html) (wasn’t paywalled for me, I sometimes get free articles), the success rate for extra points is 95%, while the success rate for 2-point conversions is exactly half of that, 47.5%. I’m not a stat or probability guy, so perhaps one of the smart folks here on the Dope can tell us if it’s wise to go for two. The Niners attempted zero 2-point conversions this season, while the Cards tried it 36% of the time. Personally, I would not have gone for two in today’s game. But it didn’t matter. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2024, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/86 "2024-01-21T23:48:03Z")
I think it is situational, not just statistics. If you have momentum than maybe the conversion rate is higher. I think you’d need either a reason to go for two, or a higher than 50% expected value success rate due to setplays and strategy. Otherwise, the criticism from missing them just hurts morale. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2024, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/87 "2024-01-21T23:48:37Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I crunched my numbers for the Det-TB game. I predict: > Detroit 35, Tampa Bay 23. Ah, so close! ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2024, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/88 "2024-01-21T23:54:02Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > I think you’d need either a reason to go for two, or a higher than 50% expected value success rate due to setplays and strategy. Exactly so. Generally, a coach decides to try for two if the additional point is meaningful, and worth the risk of taking the relatively sure thing of a single PAT off the table: for example, if you’ve just scored a touchdown, and a two-point conversion brings you within 7 or 8 points (i.e., a one-score game). I suspect that most two-point conversion attempts are made when a team is behind, which might help explain why a team which won most of its games (the 49ers, as @Railer13 mentioned) didn’t try one this year. > [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > Otherwise, the criticism from missing them just hurts morale. And very much this. Generally speaking, unorthodox coaching strategies in the NFL don’t lead to long-term coaching survival. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/89 "2024-01-22T00:04:29Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > the success rate for 2-point conversions is exactly half of that, 47.5%. On the broadcast they said that this season’s success rate was 55%. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/90 "2024-01-22T00:06:29Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > On the broadcast they said that this season’s success rate was 55% I thought I heard that as well. The NY Times article says that 47.5% success rate is since 2015, as is the 95% success rate for XPs, since the try was moved back to the 15 yard line. ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/91 "2024-01-22T00:07:30Z")
Yes, there are many considerations that would affect whether you want to go for 2, like whether you have confidence in your kicker, or a 2-point play you think will work, whether the defence is tired, and so on. Not to mention the consideration coaches have that they not look bad. The analysis generally should be a starting point and then you consider the specific game situation. It’s just that in this situation, the analytics are strongly in favour of going for 2. That should be the baseline standard strategy, and you need a compelling reason not to go for it. ---
**Author:** ![SuntanLotion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suntanlotion/32/16165_2.png) [@SuntanLotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuntanLotion)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/92 "2024-01-22T00:09:46Z")
The Chiefs and Bills are one of the very few matchups that can be Spoonered. Beefs-Chills. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/93 "2024-01-22T00:25:24Z")
Mmm. Beef Chili. Hopefully Buffalo will also win to keep up the domination of Canada South^. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/94 "2024-01-22T01:06:25Z")
> [@borschevsky](#): > > many considerations that would affect whether you want to go for 2 I was watching one of the Manningcasts when going for 2 came up. At some point Eli made a comment along the lines of you also have to consider how many two-point plays you have in your playbook. How much do you practice them? Typically teams only have a few that they practice. If you’re going to start going for two every time the math says you should, you’re going to have to add a bunch of new 2-point plays and devote practice time to them that you do not spend practicing other facets of your game plan. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/95 "2024-01-22T01:15:04Z")
Dallas and Washington now the only two teams in the NFC to have not made it to the conference title game since 1996. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/96 "2024-01-22T01:40:09Z")
It looks like Buffalo can keep running it right up the middle all the way to Baltimore, if they play their cards right. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/97 "2024-01-22T01:45:22Z")
That was an outstanding touchdown pass, both the throw and catch. Might be the difference in the game. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/98 "2024-01-22T01:57:35Z")
This looks like the kind of game where the team with the final possesion will score and win. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/99 "2024-01-22T02:02:52Z")
Ugggghh. * * * If he isn’t down it’s by an inch of clearance. ---
**Author:** ![SuntanLotion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suntanlotion/32/16165_2.png) [@SuntanLotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuntanLotion)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226/100 "2024-01-22T02:12:22Z")
I am only checking the score online. Why has the game been delayed twice? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-2024-divisional-round/996226.md?page=6)