# NFL 2023 Off-Season Thread
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801
**Category:** The Game Room
**Tags:** football-nfl
**Created:** [February 14, 2023, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801 "2023-02-14T21:26:32Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 7
### Author:  [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)
#### Post date: [March 12, 2023, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/121 "2023-03-12T02:38:54Z")
> [@Omniscient](#):
>
> Should teams draft day two prospects far more regularly and develop them instead of waiting until the situation is desperate? God yes.
100%, though as a Giants fan the whole “trade multiple 1sts to get the #1 overall QB” worked out quite well.
But now I’m wondering if anyone else has successfully done it. How many #1 overalls have actually won Superbowls, and of those, which teams traded up to get that spot? As far as I can tell, the Colts had the #1 overall naturally when they took Peyton so I’m thinking the Giants stand alone here, and are thus the exception that proves the rule.
> [@Omniscient](#):
>
> Spoken like a Packers fan.
Let’s not forget that the Packers traded up in the 1st round to draft Jordan Love.
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### Author:  [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)
#### Post date: [March 12, 2023, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/122 "2023-03-12T03:49:27Z")
I think that’s a little bit of an arbitrary distinction. If the question is “does drafting a QB #1 overall typically lead to success” it shouldn’t matter if you traded up to get it or not. Trading up likely increases the degree of difficulty because you need to figure out how to offset the lost picks, but if you’re getting Manning you still make the deal.
I also think it’s a bit arbitrary to limit it to the 1st overall too. Often the top QB on the board goes at 2 or 3.
Certainly the Broncos were happy trading for Elway, though that’s a different situation and time. The Falcons traded up for Vick and while they didn’t win a title, I don’t think most people would call that deal a stupid one.
The reality is that #1 overall QBs generally do not bust. Of course there’s a JaMarcus Russell and Tim Couch in there, but almost every pick was a multiple Pro Bowler and regular Playoff contender. Stafford was an exception, but I don’t think many people will say that was a bad pick.
You don’t trade up because you can’t get an elite QB elsewhere in the draft. You trade up because the chances are a lot better that you won’t get made a fool of.
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### Author:  [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)
#### Post date: [March 12, 2023, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/123 "2023-03-12T04:24:25Z")
> [@Omniscient](#):
>
> The reality is that #1 overall QBs generally do not bust. Of course there’s a JaMarcus Russell and Tim Couch in there, but almost every pick was a multiple Pro Bowler and regular Playoff contender. Stafford was an exception, but I don’t think many people will say that was a bad pick.
I don’t know, googling #1 overall QBs, since Eli (realignment) I’m seeing:
Alex Smith
JaMarcus Russell
Matthew Stafford
Sam Bradford
Cam Newton
Andrew Luck
Jameis Winston
Jared Goff
Baker Mayfield
Kyler Murray
Joe Burrow
Not exactly a murderer’s row of elite quarterbacks. It kind of seems like Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Joe Burrow are the exceptions.
I think you have to go back to Peyton to find the last #1 overall who was both elite and won a championship. That was 25 years ago.
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### Author:  [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)
#### Post date: [March 12, 2023, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/124 "2023-03-12T18:52:42Z")
> [@Omniscient](#):
>
> Spoken like a Packers fan.
Yep. The Packers drafted an elite QB at pick #24 while already having a HoF QB on the roster. That’s smart, not just lucky. They didnt need the #1 pick, they didn’t give up multiple picks to move up, and they didn’t give away a ProBowl WR to do it either.
And, they developed him. Gave him a couple seasons to learn, they gave him good coaching, and it worked out great.
It wasn’t magic. It wasn’t just luck (although luck always plays a part). It was taking advantage of the poor decisions of other teams.
They did the same kinda thing with Favre. Give a mid to late first round draft pick to get a guy you really liked, and give him the things he needs to excel. Take advantage of other team’s poor decisions, and develop the player.
In both cases (Rodgers and Favre), the Packers didnt have to give up the farm to chase the top pick. What they had that many, many other teams don’t, was patience and a great way of developing QBs.
Maybe the Panthers and Frank Reich will be able to properly develop whichever QB they use their draft pick on. But please don’t try to tell me, like the idiotic article was saying, that the Panthers need the #1 pick to get a franchise QB.
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### Author:  [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)
#### Post date: [March 12, 2023, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/125 "2023-03-12T18:59:54Z")
My Dolphins (they haven’t been to a Super Bowl in nearly 40 years - somebody has to claim them!) have acquired cornerback Jalen Ramsey from the Rams. The had just cut Byron Jones, so it was a hole they needed to fill. And they gave up a 3rd round pick - Miami, I guess, just really doesn’t want to participate in this year’s draft.
Ramsey joins Xavien Howard as two ball hawks at corner. Plus Miami has some quality safeties in Jevon Holland and Brandon Jones. If healthy, this could be a formidable group.
> **[Rams will trade Jalen Ramsey to Dolphins for Hunter Long and a third-round...](https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/03/12/rams-will-trade-jalen-ramsey-to-dolphins-for-hunter-long-and-a-third-round-pick/amp/)**
>
> Jalen Ramsey is heading to Miami.The Rams and Dolphins have agreed to a trade that will send Ramsey to Miami and send Hunter Long and the Dolphins’ 2023 third-round pick (No. 77 overall) to Los Angeles, according to multiple reports.The trade cannot...
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### Author:  [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)
#### Post date: [March 12, 2023, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/126 "2023-03-12T20:54:04Z")
> [@Moriarty](#):
>
> If healthy, this could be a formidable group.
Agreed, it’s a nasty combo.
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### Author:  [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2023, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/127 "2023-03-13T13:26:39Z")
> [@Omniscient](#):
>
> The Bears got DJ Moore, 1 future first, a late 2nd rounder and a future 2nd rounder for just the 1st overall. Let’s see if we can balance the equation …
I also thought the Bears could have gotten more (no pun intended), so I used the [Jimmy Johnson chart](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjsk9LU_tj9AhVfPkQIHSuAAKIQFnoECBIQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.drafttek.com%2FNFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp&usg=AOvVaw3DD7GCnei-H9rg-QetDzVx) to figure it out. Per convention, I placed Carolina in the 16th drafting position the next two years, and “discounted” picks one round for every year in the future.
So, the Bears gave up 3000 points with this year’s #1, and got back:
- 1350 (#9 pick in 2023)
- 292 (#61 pick in 2023)
- 430 (#16 pick in 2024)
- 118 (#48 pick in 2025)
- 2190 Total
That means Moore was worth 810 points, or roughly the 21st pick this year. He’s a good WR on an affordable contract for three more years, and it’s a thin year for WRs in the draft and free agency, so I suppose that’s a decent valuation.
But the thing is, when a team wants your pick that desperately they’re supposed to pay a premium over value. If Moore doesn’t truly shine, I’ll maintain that Poles could have done better.
ETA to add that Carolina may be pretty bad next year, so if their first rounder is top 5 this trade will obviously look better. OTOH, they almost made the playoffs this year with a revolving cast of mediocrity at QB, so mid-round might not be far off.
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### Author:  [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2023, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/128 "2023-03-13T13:50:48Z")
Looks like the Bears really wanted a wide receiver, and they weren’t interested in any of the free agents or this draft class. The two they were targeting were apparently DJ Moore and Michael Pittman.
> **[Surprising Wrinkle Revealed On Chicago Bears' Trade Of #1 Pick](https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/surprising-wrinkle-revealed-on-chicago-bears-trade-of-1-pick/)**
>
> When big blockbuster trades go down, hidden details always come out afterward. It’s what makes them so dramatic. The Chicago Bears became the first team in nine years to trade the #1 overall pick and only the third team to do it since the turn of the...
Looks like the Bears were pillaging my fantasy team either way, since Moore and Pittman are my two starters in the dynasty league. Boy have my starting wide receivers had shitty quarterbacks. I’m hoping Fields can get the ball to Moore better than Baker Mayfield / Sam Darnold.
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### Author:  [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2023, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/129 "2023-03-13T14:08:17Z")
> [@EllisDee](#):
>
> Looks like the Bears really wanted a wide receiver, and they weren’t interested in any of the free agents or this draft class.
No question Moore is better than anyone else they could have likely drafted, traded for, or signed in free agency. I see him as roughly fulfilling the role Allen Robinson did for Trubisky in 2018 – giving a young QB a reliable downfield target with some big play potential.
Of course, Mooney or Claypool could have done that last year if Fields wasn’t running for his life so often. I’m looking forward to some impressive free agent signings on the OL this week.
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### Author:  [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2023, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/130 "2023-03-13T18:38:17Z")
Tons of free agency movement being announced today, prior to the official beginning of the “league year” on Wednesday; the biggest news so far is that the Raiders are planning to sign QB Jimmy Garoppolo to a three-year contract.
> **[Raiders fill QB need with Garoppolo, sources say](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35851697/raiders-fill-qb-need-jimmy-garoppolo-sources-say)**
>
> 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo plans to sign with the Raiders, sources told ESPN's Dianna Russini and Adam Schefter.
> **[Tracking NFL free agency: Latest signings, trades, cuts, rumors](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35768334/nfl-free-agency-updates-2023-latest-signings-trades-rumors-news-buzz-big-contracts)**
>
> We're live following every notable free agent signing and blockbuster trade, along with the latest buzz around potential new deals.
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### Author:  [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2023, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/131 "2023-03-13T19:09:31Z")
Good for Jimmy to have a job.
Congratulations to Vegas for having an average to below average QB as a starter (when he’s healthy).
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### Author:  [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2023, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/132 "2023-03-13T19:28:07Z")
> [@Atamasama](#):
>
> Congratulations to Vegas for having an average to below average QB as a starter
I don’t know what the stats are for an ‘average QB’.
Jimmy G was 7-3 last year as a starter, with 7.9 yards per attempt, 16 TDs, and 4 picks.
For his career, he’s 40-17, 8.3 ypa, 87 TDs, 42 picks.
I think the key is ‘when he’s healthy’. He’s only had two seasons in which he started more than 10 games.
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### Author:  [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2023, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/133 "2023-03-13T19:48:26Z")
Washington loading up on the OL, picking up Nick Gates and Andrew Wylie. Can never have too many of those guys IMO.
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### Author:  [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2023, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/134 "2023-03-13T20:33:21Z")
Rodgers to the Jets is getting close, perhaps.
> **[Signs are indeed pointing to Aaron Rodgers joining the Jets - ProFootballTalk](https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/03/13/signs-are-indeed-pointing-to-aaron-rodgers-joining-the-jets/)**
>
> It’s not official yet, but it’s quickly moving that way.Packers (for now) quarterback Aaron Rodgers is indeed moving toward accepting a trade that would send him out the land of the Cheesehead and into the Big Apple.Trey Wingo (who was the first to...
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### Author:  [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2023, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/135 "2023-03-13T20:41:54Z")
Jimmy G is also getting an average to below average salary. $67.5 million for 3 years, with $34 million guaranteed. Definitely not savior of the franchise type money. There are WRs paid more.
So, yeah. Congratulations to Vegas on picking up a reliably average to above average starting QB at market or below-market value who is familiar with their head coach. It buys them a year or two with little real cost to find their real franchise QB. Or maybe, if he has a couple great seasons, a solid starting option a la Geno Smith.
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### Author:  [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2023, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/136 "2023-03-13T21:00:09Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#):
>
> Jimmy G is also getting an average to below average salary. $67.5 million for 3 years, with $34 million guaranteed. Definitely not savior of the franchise type money. There are WRs paid more.
The front office honestly should be commended for that. Especially these days when people are throwing money at QBs, that’s probably just about right.
> [@Great\_Antibob](#):
>
> Or maybe, if he has a couple great seasons, a solid starting option a la Geno Smith.
Who knows, if he avoids injury, he might have his own renaissance.
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### Author:  [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)
#### Post date: [March 13, 2023, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/137 "2023-03-13T21:16:40Z")
Yup. They’ve now got their veteran presence, who also happens to be used to fighting for the position, and is a slight upgrade over Carr when healthy but hasn’t always been especially healthy.
It’ll be interesting to see when (not if) they pick a QB in the draft. They’ve got the #7 pick, so they will be in position to draft one of the better QBs. Or trade down to get picks to work on depth or anything in between.
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### Author:  [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2023, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/138 "2023-03-14T01:43:14Z")
The 49ers get Sam Darnold.
> **[49ers add Darnold on 1-year deal, source says](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35853097/49ers-agree-one-year-deal-qb-sam-darnold-source-says)**
>
> The 49ers bolstered their depth at quarterback by agreeing to a one-year deal with Sam Darnold, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter.
I assume that’s only until Lance/Purdy are healthy.
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### Author:  [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2023, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/139 "2023-03-14T02:31:17Z")
> [@Atamasama](#):
>
> I assume that’s only until Lance/Purdy are healthy.
That’s my assumption, as well; they didn’t have a currently-healthy quarterback under contract, and depending on what happens with Purdy’s surgery, he may not be available until late in 2023, if at all.
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### Author:  [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)
#### Post date: [March 14, 2023, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-off-season-thread/979801/140 "2023-03-14T03:00:53Z")
After last season, I think the 49ers want to buy quarterbacks in bulk.
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