# NFL 2023: WEEK FOUR leaf clover **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-nfl\ **Created:** [September 28, 2023, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831 "2023-09-28T18:20:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2023, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/21 "2023-09-29T04:58:02Z")
That seems like the fair thing to do for the bettors. It also seems like a lost opportunity for the bookmakers. They don’t make any money on those bets. Why would they set the line at 3 when they could set it at 2.5 or 3.5 and guarantee a result? If the line is 2.5, that will attract action for the favorite, and 3.5 will draw bettors on the underdog. Is the idea that a 3-point win will mean paying out lots of winning bets, and losing money, so it’s better to have a push and break even? ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2023, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/22 "2023-09-29T05:25:47Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > On the completely opposite side, the Broncos/Bears game could be worth a peek just to see how which number is higher: the number of passes over 10 yards that Justin Fields completes vs the number of people Sean Payton throws under the bus to avoid taking responsibility for his team’s struggles. Maybe it will be “so bad it’s good”. I share season tickets with my cousin. I don’t have the Broncos game this week, but I’m very strongly considering hitting the Ticket Exchange and attending anyways. I’m fully in the “so bad it’s good” camp here. This Bears fiasco is a full on trainwreck and I’ve gone from pissed off to fascinated. The only question remaining to me is whether the Bears will can Poles or give him a chance to hire a second HC. IMO, keeping Poles would be football malpractice, which means it’s assuredly what the McCaskeys will do. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2023, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/23 "2023-09-29T13:44:11Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > Why would they set the line at 3 when they could set it at 2.5 or 3.5 and guarantee a result? Here is a good explanation of how the line is set and how it moves in the days before the contest is played. > **[Ultimate Guide to Line Movement in Sports Betting](https://www.wsn.com/betting-guide/line-movement/)** > > Wondering why sports betting lines like point spreads and moneylines move leading up to the game? Read our easy guide for line movement betting strategies. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2023, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/24 "2023-09-29T14:18:24Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > Here is a good explanation of how the line is set and how it moves in the days before the contest is played. > > [Ultimate Guide to Line Movement in Sports Betting](https://www.wsn.com/betting-guide/line-movement/) Thanks for the link. I haven’t finished reading it yet, so I don’t know if it answers my question or not. Whoever wrote it got paid by the word. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2023, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/25 "2023-09-29T17:29:06Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > Why would they set the line at 3 when they could set it at 2.5 or 3.5 and guarantee a result? If the line is 2.5, that will attract action for the favorite, and 3.5 will draw bettors on the underdog. Is the idea that a 3-point win will mean paying out lots of winning bets, and losing money, so it’s better to have a push and break even? Short answer, it’s better to push and break even. A .5 point move in either direction will cause more winners on one side of the bet. The book is trying very hard (an over generalization, but mostly true) to get equal action on both sides of a bet. This ensures that they profit from either outcome (the vig). If they move a 3 point spread to a 3.5 point spread then a 3 point game results in a lot more wins that would otherwise be pushes. Since the casino is basically saying that these teams are 3 points different, setting the win .5 points higher or lower unbalances the book. That’s bad. Also consider that .5 attached to the number is called “the hook”. The premise being that it hooks additional betters on the bet just to the other side of that 1/2 point. A 3.5 point bet encourages betting on the under. A 6.5 bet encourages bets on the over. It’s a psychological game and because of this behavior, moving the line when it’s not justified will have an outsized impact on the betting activity. ---
**Author:** ![Jegpeg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jegpeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jegpeg)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2023, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/26 "2023-09-29T18:10:46Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > I’m amused that despite Denver losing by 50 points last week, they still don’t have the worst total point differential. That would be the Bears. In a similar vain I am amused that after that game Denver favorites to win this week and Miami the underdogs. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2023, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/27 "2023-09-30T00:21:18Z")
> [@Jegpeg](#): > > Miami the underdogs. Hell, when the Dolphins won Super Bowl VII against the (formerly known as) Redskins to finish their perfect season, they played _that_ game as underdogs. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2023, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/28 "2023-09-30T04:10:27Z")
When you play relatively close games against the Patriots and the Chargers and the blowout is against a terrible Denver team, you haven’t actually proven you should be favored over a pretty good Bills team playing at home. Though the line is so close that it’s basically saying the Dolphins would be favored had the game been played in Miami, so there’s that. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2023, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/29 "2023-09-30T16:26:31Z")
In other football news, American Mason Cox won the Australian Rules Football championship as a member of the Collingwood Magpies. > **[American Pie gets emotional reflecting on AFL journey](https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/collingwood-magpies/afl-grand-final-2023-american-pie-mason-cox-soaks-in-collingwoods-premiership-triumph-c-12066397)** > > In what has been a chant fans have become used to, ‘USA, USA, USA’ rang out around the MCG as Mason Cox completed his journey from America to an AFL premiership. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2023, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/30 "2023-09-30T16:40:07Z")
> [@garygnu](#): > > American Mason Cox If you haven’t seen the 60 Minutes segment on this guy, you should. Quite an interesting saga. And, FWIW, I just noticed that the Browns spread is down to -1.5 over the Ravens. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2023, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/31 "2023-09-30T17:31:37Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > the 60 Minutes segment I couldn’t watch past the line in the opening where it said Footy makes American football “look like a quilting bee.” Besides, I’ve known about Cox for a while. Cool guy. I root for him, but overall I’m a Port Adelaide supporter. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2023, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/32 "2023-10-01T02:45:09Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > I share season tickets with my cousin. I don’t have the Broncos game this week, but I’m very strongly considering hitting the Ticket Exchange and attending anyways. I’m doing it boys. Going into the shit. Will report back on this course in ineptitude. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2023, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/33 "2023-10-01T02:46:31Z")
I saw someone on a fantasy reddit comment that Justin Fields is a must start this week. You’re facing a defense that just gave up 70 points. If you can’t make hay now, you never will. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2023, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/34 "2023-10-01T05:38:42Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > If you can’t make hay now, you never will. I’m pretty sure that’s on the masthead at Halas Hall. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2023, 5:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/35 "2023-10-01T05:48:51Z")
A few bits of NFL news from today: - Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppalo is still in concussion protocol, and won’t play against the Chargers on Sunday. The team is leaning towards starting rookie Aidan O’Connell, but may instead turn to Brian Hoyer, who hasn’t started a game since 2016. - The Raiders have cut defensive end Chandler Jones for “conduct detrimental to the team,” after a week of odd social media posts, including claims that he had been hospitalized against his will, and being arrested on Friday for violating a protective order. - Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will be eligible to come off the PUP list next week, as he continues to rehab from an ACL injury suffered late last year; however, reports are that he won’t be ready to actually return to play for some time yet. > **[Source: Raiders without Garoppolo vs. Chargers](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38531412/raiders-qb-jimmy-garoppolo-not-play-vs-chargers)** > > Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will not play Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium, as he remains in the NFL's concussion protocol, a source told ESPN on Saturday, leaving Las Vegas with Brian Hoyer and Aidan O'Connell. > **[Raiders release DE Jones after turbulent week](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38528896/raiders-releasing-de-chandler-jones-source-says)** > > The Raiders have released defensive end Chandler Jones. Jones, who was arrested in Las Vegas on Friday, had been placed on the non-football illness list last week. > **[Sources: Kyler won't come off PUP when eligible](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38527859/sources-cardinals-kyler-murray-come-pup-eligible)** > > Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is not expected to come off the PUP list when he becomes eligible and still is considered weeks away from playing, sources told ESPN. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2023, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/36 "2023-10-01T16:40:34Z")
Damar Hamlin is active (and presumably playing) for the Bills today. (Hamlin being the guy who died on the field last season). That’s sure to be an emotional boost for Buffalo, playing at home. Then again, Miami has wide receiver Jaylen Wadlde active and playing for the Dolphins today (Waddle being the guy who missed last week with a concussion). That’s sure to be a talent boost for Miami, playing on offense. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2023, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/37 "2023-10-01T18:04:36Z")
OK, Justin Fields is 12/12 passing so far. Denver’s pass defense is stunningly bad. (BTW: Anyone else watching the game- Does soldier field look hazy on the broadcast, or is it me?) ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2023, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/38 "2023-10-01T18:38:07Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > Denver’s pass defense is stunningly bad. Their defense is putrid and it’s the reason why Denver could end the season in last place. They’re making the Bears look really good. Dolphins ran up the score last week on Denver and hit a brick wall in Buffalo this week. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2023, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/39 "2023-10-01T19:58:33Z")
Wow, the Bears are prepared to lose just anything they have a chance to. Wowie. ---
**Author:** ![SuntanLotion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suntanlotion/32/16165_2.png) [@SuntanLotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuntanLotion)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2023, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831/40 "2023-10-01T20:17:43Z")
Probably the only Clevelander going wooot! today. 💜 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-week-four-leaf-clover/990831.md?page=3)