# NFL 2023: Wildcard Weekend **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-nfl\ **Created:** [January 10, 2024, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866 "2024-01-10T02:46:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/261 "2024-01-16T01:43:15Z")
But the Bucs score two plays later. Philly better get in gear. If they can’t stop the Bucs, they’re in trouble. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/262 "2024-01-16T01:49:01Z")
I’m pulling for the Baker Mayfield Renaissance to continue here. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/263 "2024-01-16T02:25:23Z")
Dunno why the NFL doesn’t follow the NCAA on linemen being allowed downfield on screens (any pass behind the line tbe). Looks like we have a game now. Edit: dunno why you go for it if just kicking the PAT leaves you only 6 points behind… ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/264 "2024-01-16T02:45:41Z")
NFL must want the Eagles to win this one. D-Lineman grabs the quarterback’s facemask after the play and with two refs right there in the middle of it. No flag. Apparently that’s allowed now. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/265 "2024-01-16T02:47:57Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > dunno why you go for it if just kicking the PAT leaves you only 6 points behind… My son and I had this same argument. I said that 16-11 isn’t much better than 16-10. But 16-10 is far better than 16-9. He countered with their 95% success rate on the 1-yard tush push, and then being down 16-11 means that they could go for another 2-point conversion after the next TD and go up 19-16. I’m right and he’s wrong, but he won’t admit it. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/266 "2024-01-16T03:10:40Z")
I agree that the change was de minimis. The temperature overlay was a box on the screen, but it was commented on. The temperatures seem to have been accurate at some point, but I’m not sure the wind showing would account for that chill? It confused me they would use centigrade at all. ---
**Author:** ![zimaane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a3d4f5/32.png) [@zimaane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zimaane)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/267 "2024-01-16T03:22:31Z")
The one point isn’t absolutely guaranteed though. IThe overall conversion rate is about 95%, about the same as the brotherly shove rate. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/268 "2024-01-16T03:27:39Z")
Yeah but they sure could use it now after that safety. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/269 "2024-01-16T03:34:17Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > they sure could use it now after that safety. Heh. Just what I told my kid. Right before the TB TD, which may have put the game out of reach. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/270 "2024-01-16T04:05:17Z")
4th and 10, the field goal is good and cuts the lead to 13. 2 score game still, but 2 TDs with 1pt PATs takes the lead. Offsides makes it 4th and 5. Go for it. Incomplete pass and the lead stays 16 - 2 TDs with 2pt PATs are now required to tie. Philly hasn’t really ever looked in this game, but I do not understand taking points off the board. Analytics be damned. Sure the 4th down “go for it” had slightly higher odds at 4th and 5, but that’s not 4th and 1 and still doesn’t guarantee you the TD, you’re still outside the 25. And then you go for the end zone when you only needed 5! You’ve could’ve done that from 4th and 10. Bad coaching/qb call IMHO. TB takes the turnover on downs and scores a TD just to add insult to (self-inflicted) injury. 26 pt lead and a 4 score lead. This game is over. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/271 "2024-01-16T04:14:47Z")
Well it seems to be happening. Baker is having a fantastic night. Now, I think this game says a **lot** more about the Eagles than the Bucs but still. He’s playing very well. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/272 "2024-01-16T04:19:31Z")
Betting wrap up: Browns/Texans - Underdog Texans (outright) and the over. Dolphins/Chiefs - Favorite Chiefs and the under. Packers/Cowboys - Underdog Packers (outright) and the (waaaayyy) over. Rams/Lions - Underdog Rams (on the spread) and the under. Steelers/Bills - Favorite Buffalo (barely) and the over (surprisingly). Eagles/Bucs - Underdog Bucs (outright) and the under. Really glad I didn’t bet this weekend because I would have parlayed and probably lost my behind - especially on the o/u’s. Also, to add to above, had the Eagles kicked the FG and then Tampa scored the TD, 32-12 would have been a scorigami (and made the over). As it is, we have the 2nd 32-9 game in NFL history. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/273 "2024-01-16T04:22:46Z")
Failures all over for the Eagles, but oof that secondary. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/274 "2024-01-16T05:09:04Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > My son and I had this same argument. I said that 16-11 isn’t much better than 16-10. But 16-10 is far better than 16-9. He countered with their 95% success rate on the 1-yard tush push, and then being down 16-11 means that they could go for another 2-point conversion after the next TD and go up 19-16. You know that chart they use that tells them when they’re supposed to go for two or go for one? If you get a penalty and you’re only one yard out, the chart says that you’re supposed to go for two every time regardless of what the score is. I believe the reasoning is that there’s a greater than 50% chance of success, meaning the expected value is greater than 1. Meanwhile, kicking is not 100% guaranteed, so the expected value for the kick is less than 1. After the second time, when the field goal got taken off the board for a failed 4th down try, Peyton joked that the Bucs were jumping offsides on purpose to get them to take points off the board. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/275 "2024-01-16T05:40:44Z")
Good news; Bills won, bad news, their defense is so decimated by injury that they’ll be easy picking for Mahomes and Co. next week. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 6:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/276 "2024-01-16T06:16:11Z")
It’s okay. Taylor Swift is going to make them lose. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 7:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/277 "2024-01-16T07:56:42Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > After the second time, when the field goal got taken off the board for a failed 4th down try, Peyton joked that the Bucs were jumping offsides on purpose to get them to take points off the board. It’s hilarious that it actually worked. I told my wife… They’re going to go for it on fourth down but they’re not going to pick up a reasonable bit of yardage, they’re going to take a shot at the end zone and get a turnover on downs after literally making a field goal and putting points on the board before accepting the penalty and erasing it. And that’s exactly what they did. They’re not only bad at execution, they’re making bad decisions. (Not sure if that play was on the coaches or if Hurts made the decision in the moment.) ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 10:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/278 "2024-01-16T10:12:32Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > You know that chart they use that tells them when they’re supposed to go for two or go for one? If you get a penalty and you’re only one yard out, the chart says that you’re supposed to go for two every time regardless of what the score is. Do you have a link to that chart? (Not being snarky, but I’d like to see it.) Because I still maintain that you have to account for the game/point situation as well. Consider: if Team A is down 20-17, in the 4th quarter, and scores a TD to go up 23-20, and then they kick the XP to go up 24-20. But Team B jumps offside on the XP attempt. So according to the chart, Team A should then go for two? Yeah, I’m not buying that logic. ---
**Author:** ![3AxisCtrl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/3/ecd19e/32.png) [@3AxisCtrl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/3AxisCtrl)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/279 "2024-01-16T13:24:05Z")
“Ten and one … and done.” The Eagles’ season has to be one of the strangest ever. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/280 "2024-01-16T14:22:26Z")
I don’t think the Eagles declining the field goal was such a bad idea. It’s not like taking the 3 points was a realistic path to victory. They had shown nothing to make anyone think 2 more scores (and stopping the Buccs on consecutive drives) was realistic. Going on 4th down was a low probability play, but still probably higher probability than any other path to victory. I compare it to pulling your goalie near the end of a hockey game. Yeah, the most likely outcome is an empty net goal, but losing by 1 or 2 is the same. At least it gives you a shot. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866.md?page=15)