# NFL 2023: Wildcard Weekend **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-nfl\ **Created:** [January 10, 2024, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866 "2024-01-10T02:46:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![muldoonthief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldoonthief/32/3188_2.png) [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/281 "2024-01-16T14:42:22Z")
In snowy situations, the image recognition breaks down. In one of the week 18 games (Pats vs Jets I think?) it was snowing enough that the scrimmage & first down lines were sometimes painted over the players as well. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/282 "2024-01-16T14:59:01Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > Do you have a link to that chart? (Not being snarky, but I’d like to see it.) > **[NFL game management cheat sheet: Guide to fourth downs and 2-point conversions](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33059528/nfl-game-management-cheat-sheet-punt-go-kick-field-goal-fourth-downs-plus-2-point-conversion-recommendations)** > > Curious about a fourth-down or 2-point conversion decision? ESPN's recommendation model can help. [![](https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fphoto%2F2022%2F0116%2Fnfl_cheat_sheet_1990x2153.jpg&w=1140&cquality=40&format=jpg) ](https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fphoto%2F2022%2F0116%2Fnfl_cheat_sheet_1990x2153.jpg&w=1140&cquality=40&format=jpg) ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/283 "2024-01-16T15:07:27Z")
Overall, a fairly shitty slate of wild card games with blowouts across the board except for Lions/Rams, which was a great game. Not a great weekend if you were hoping for close/exciting games. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/284 "2024-01-16T15:10:47Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > [NFL game management cheat sheet: Guide to fourth downs and 2-point conversions - ESPN](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33059528/nfl-game-management-cheat-sheet-punt-go-kick-field-goal-fourth-downs-plus-2-point-conversion-recommendations) Thanks for the link. I will point out, however, that the article states: > 1. It’s really the combination of score and time remaining (including timeouts!) that determines whether or not a team should go for two. Note the time specifications within each score breakdown. Which was my point a few posts above. Also, the article says nothing about going for two after a defensive offside foul, which was another point made above: > [@EllisDee](#): > > If you get a penalty and you’re only one yard out, the chart says that you’re supposed to go for two every time regardless of what the score is. Anyway, it’s a moot point, because the Eagles didn’t score again after the failed 2-point conversion! ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/285 "2024-01-16T15:31:21Z")
Sure. Statistically it is better to go when 4th and 2, and risky to pull the hockey goaltender. But coaches often coach by expectations and not expected values. It was a very reasonable thing, though I am unclear if the penalty was intentional. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/286 "2024-01-16T15:49:04Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > Which was my point a few posts above. I was just posting the chart as requested, not arguing a point. The chart is what it is. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/287 "2024-01-16T15:52:59Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > the article says nothing about going for two after a defensive offside foul Yes it does. The very first graphic titled “4th down recommendation” shows to always go for it on 4th & 1. That’s what a 1-yard 2 Pt PAT is. > In fact, our model recommends a go on fourth-and-1 in typical situations _anywhere_ on the field. The article never mentions 1-yard 2 Pt PATs at all, but it’s pretty clear from everything the article says that it would be consistent with itself and recommend going for 2 with 1 yard to go the same way it recommends going for it on 4th with 1 yard to go. The only reason going for 2 or 1 is a question in the first place is because the expected value is roughly equivalent: > The point expectancy for a PAT (93.7% since 2015) and 2-point conversion (48.1% in same span, but worth double) are so close that we should think of _either_ option as an active choice. But that’s only true if the 2-point is from the two yard line. From the one, the 2-point is a much higher expected value than kicking a PAT. I know you gave your game example, but consider that the linked article says to go for 4th & 1 from _your own 1 yard line._ It never mentions a recommendation for when a 2-point is only 1 yard away, but surely the recommendation is obvious, yes? ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/288 "2024-01-16T16:06:03Z")
> [@Jack\_Batty](#): > > It’s okay. Taylor Swift is going to make them lose. According to [this article](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/travis-kelce-knows-his-numbers-are-significantly-better-when-taylor-swift-attends-how-could-i-not-be-aware/), _“Kelce averages 8.5 catches per game and 108 receiving yards per game when Swift attends – compared to 7.0 catches and 46.5 yards per game when she’s not there.”_ So it appears, rather than acting like a siren, leading one astray to be dashed on the rocks of failure, like Yoko Ono was to John Lennon and the Beatles, or Jessica Simpson was to Tony Romo and the Cowboys, she’s more of an inspirational muse, as [Dora Maar was for Picasso](https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/press-play-with-madeleine-brand/political-conventions-burns-floods-lauren-halsey/finding-dora-maar-book). ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/289 "2024-01-16T16:21:54Z")
Hey listen, Brett Favre knows a lot more about football than I do, take it up with him: > “She’s obviously using Travis Kelce for publicity. It’s a money grab that’s not going to end well. Eventually the Cheifs are going to lose & it will be her fault. She’s bad for football.” - B. Favre ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/290 "2024-01-16T16:30:32Z")
NFC Least ---
**Author:** ![zimaane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a3d4f5/32.png) [@zimaane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zimaane)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/291 "2024-01-16T16:30:50Z")
Brett Favre really, really should not be lecturing anyone on dishonest “money grabs”. [Brett Favre - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett_Favre#Controversies) ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/292 "2024-01-16T16:32:28Z")
It’s a bit crazy seeing that the Eagles and Cowboys were so dominant earlier in the season. It’s clearly better to peak in the playoffs than the regular season. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/293 "2024-01-16T16:43:28Z")
The AFC North is the biggest surprise. Best division in football had a rough Wildcard weekend. ---
**Author:** ![Just\_Asking\_Questions](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba9def/32.png) [@Just\_Asking\_Questions](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Just_Asking_Questions)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/294 "2024-01-16T16:49:01Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > what is the electronic wizardry behind showing the line of scrimmage and the 1st down line? It appears to actually be lying on the ground, as you can see players apparently stepping on it, but that isn’t possible. How dey do dat? You should check out basketball. They put ads right on the court. They are proportioned and skewed such that they look like they are painted on the court. The only way to know they aren’t is they change during the game. The players “walk” over them and the viewer can’t tell. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/295 "2024-01-16T16:53:29Z")
I don’t remember the Steelers or Browns ever being considered the best or among the best teams in the NFL. At various points this season the Cowboys and Eagles were near the top in NFL power rankings. The Steelers and Browns both falling wasn’t a big shock. Now, the Eagles losing shouldn’t be a shock to anyone paying attention to the team over the past month or so. The team fell apart and ended the year 1-6, losing to teams like the 5-10 Giants and 4-12 Cardinals. The Cowboys though were a big upset. Not only had they been playing solid football but they were undefeated all year at home until the 7th seed wild card team came into their building to beat them, and **soundly** beat them. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/296 "2024-01-16T16:54:05Z")
The NHL has digital ads on the side boards, too. The early version of this was not done well. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/297 "2024-01-16T17:10:53Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > Also, the article says nothing about going for two after a defensive offside foul, which was another point made above It sort of does, in that the odds of a successful conversion from 1 yard out are quite high, so you are almost always going to be above the red line on that chart. (meaning you should go for two) The only exceptions would be late in a game where you are currently down 14, 7 or 3, tied, or up 3, 8, or 10. In those situations kicking the PAT is probably better. Which is one of the scenarios you presented (up 3 late in a game). The chart does say pretty clearly that any time before the 4th quarter you should _always_ go for 2 from the 1-yard line, assuming your success rate is something like 65%+. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/298 "2024-01-16T17:11:47Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > The Cowboys though were a big upset. Yeah, Dallas losing wouldn’t by itself have been shocking. Any given Sunday and all that, so any team can lose any particular game. But Dallas got absolutely curbstomped in their own building. If either Baltimore or SF don’t just lose but get blown out this weekend, those would also be shocking ---
**Author:** ![muldoonthief](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldoonthief/32/3188_2.png) [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/299 "2024-01-16T17:16:29Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > I know you gave your game example, but consider that the linked article says to go for 4th & 1 from _your own 1 yard line._ How do you get into a 4th and 1 from your own 1 yard line? It looks like the model actually excludes that - if the yards to end zone is 99, there’s no recommendation until the yards to gain is 9. And they recommend a punt in that situation. The earliest they recommend going for it is 4th and 1 from your own 9. ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2024, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866/300 "2024-01-16T17:17:22Z")
> [@Jack\_Batty](#): > > Hey listen, Brett Favre knows a lot more about football than I do, take it up with him: > > > “She’s obviously using Travis Kelce for publicity. It’s a money grab that’s not going to end well. Eventually the Cheifs are going to lose & it will be her fault. She’s bad for football.” - B. Favre > [@zimaane](#): > > Brett Favre really, really should not be lecturing anyone on dishonest “money grabs”. > > [Brett Favre - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett_Favre#Controversies) I think Jack\_Batty is speaking tongue-in-cheek, but yeah, that’s some fine textbook projection coming from Favre there. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2023-wildcard-weekend/995866.md?page=16)