# NFL 2024-25: Week 10 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-nfl\ **Created:** [November 5, 2024, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720 "2024-11-05T15:18:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/21 "2024-11-08T15:28:11Z")
But at least you still have a chance. Either way you have to prevent the FG, but fail the 2, like they did, you lose right then and there. Like they did. Going for 2 was absolutely the wrong call. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/22 "2024-11-08T15:49:26Z")
Yes, **if** the 2 point try fails, you’ve lost. And **if** they beat you in OT, you’ve lost. Determining the best course of action after knowing the outcome of your decision is easy. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/23 "2024-11-08T16:28:55Z")
No shit. I’m not seeing where they needed a crystal ball to see that. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/24 "2024-11-08T16:52:00Z")
My point is that saying things like “they lose if they miss the 2 point try” is meaningless. It comes down to simple percentages. What are their odds of converting? Is it 30% (league average this year), or more like 50%, the 2023 average? What are their odds of winning OT? Coin flip, or significantly lower because of how Baltimore was looking in the 2nd half, where their last 4 drives all went for TDs? If anything, the 2-point try gives them one more out, in that they still have the slim chance of an onside kick. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/25 "2024-11-08T16:54:52Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > What are their odds of converting? Is it 30% (league average this year), or more like 50%, the 2023 average? Historically, the odds of a 2-point conversion have hovered right around 50%, and that’s likely the probability which is baked into any chart or guidance that a coach is looking at. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/26 "2024-11-08T16:59:23Z")
Okay fine here’s a simple percentage for you: **if they fail the 2 point conversion in that scenario they lose 100% of the time**. There’s no “slim chance” of _anything_ after that. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/27 "2024-11-08T17:07:34Z")
> [@DCnDC](#): > > **if they fail the 2 point conversion in that scenario they lose 100% of the time**. Not quite right. As @TroutMan pointed out > [@TroutMan](#): > > the 2-point try gives them one more out, in that they still have the slim chance of an onside kick. Slim is more than zero. ETA: this was almost the exact same scenario as the Bucs faced Monday night against the Chiefs. They kicked the XP and the game went to OT. Chiefs won the toss and marched down the field for the winning TD. I’m guessing the Cincy coaching staff may have watched that game. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/28 "2024-11-08T17:11:59Z")
Why can’t they try an onside kick after the PAT? ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/29 "2024-11-08T17:19:36Z")
> [@DCnDC](#): > > Why can’t they try an onside kick after the PAT They could, but it would not be a smart thing to do. If they kick the XP, the game is tied with 38 seconds to go. The success rate of recovering an onside kick is extremely low this season, as teams have to declare their intention of attempting such a kick. Had Cincy attempted an onside kick and Baltimore recovered, they would almost be within range to attempt the winning field goal. The Ravens recovered the onside kick at the Cincy 43, meaning they needed just a few yards for their strong kicker to be well within his range. If I counted correctly, there have been 28 onside kicks attempted this season. Two have been recovered by the kicking team. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/30 "2024-11-08T17:21:30Z")
Right. Which is why you kick the goddamn XP and have a tiny bit of faith in your own defense. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/31 "2024-11-08T17:30:44Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > They could, but it would not be a smart thing to do. > > If they kick the XP, the game is tied with 38 seconds to go. The success rate of recovering an onside kick is extremely low this season, as teams have to declare their intention of attempting such a kick. Actually, in that situation, no, they couldn’t have. My understanding is that the new 2024 rules on onside kicks only allow them to be attempted when the kicking team is trailing, and even then, only during the fourth quarter. If the game was tied, the Bengals would have been prohibited from even trying one. Also, while onside kicks have always been a low-percentage play, other rules which had been implemented on kickoffs in recent years – members of the kicking team have to be stationary until the ball is kicked, and the kicking team must have five players on either side of the kicker (i.e., no “unbalanced” formations) – had already made it an even lower-percentage play. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/32 "2024-11-08T17:33:26Z")
Nice info, today I learned. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/33 "2024-11-08T17:38:13Z")
Should we mention that the Bengals should have had a second chance with at least one, and probably two missed fouls on the conversion attempt? I absolutely support going for 2 there. I would almost always go for the win against a better team on the road. A better throw and they might have won - probably didn’t help that Burrow was getting hit in the head as he threw it. I see it this way: Go for 2: Win percentage is odds you convert - odds you give up a GW FG + tiny odds you fail but get the ball back and get a FG. Go for 1: Win percentage is odds you win in OT - odds you give up a GW FG. I think there odds of winning that game in OT were lower than the odds of converting the two-pointer against a tired defense. It didn’t work out that way, in part thanks to the refs missing two penalty calls, but so be it. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/34 "2024-11-08T18:01:56Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Should we mention that the Bengals should have had a second chance with at least one, and probably two missed fouls on the conversion attempt? > > I think there odds of winning that game in OT were lower than the odds of converting the two-pointer against a tired defense. It didn’t work out that way, in part thanks to the refs missing two penalty calls, but so be it. There is absolutely no way for the refs to win. With commentators constantly feeding the fans’ desire to blame officiating and the inherent judgment-call nature of so many penalties, it is impossible for refs to “get it right”. If they call penalties that cost a team at the end of the game, they are pilloried. When they “let them play” and only call blatant penalties at the end of games (like last night. Neither the “holding” nor the head slap were so blatant) they still get hammered by announcers and fans. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/35 "2024-11-08T18:47:30Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > My understanding is that the new 2024 rules on onside kicks only allow them to be attempted when the kicking team is trailing, and even then, only during the fourth quarter. You are right, and I stand corrected. > [@DCnDC](#): > > Which is why you kick the goddamn XP and have a tiny bit of faith in your own defense. You mean the defense that had just given up touchdowns on _four_ consecutive drives? That defense? No, if you kick the XP, you are hoping to win the coin flip and then drive down the field for the game-winning TD. Which, in fairness, the Bengals had just done that, but they had to convert a 4th-and-10 along the way…which they certainly wouldn’t have tried in a tie game in overtime. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/36 "2024-11-08T18:53:23Z")
And the Raven’s defense gave up two 1-play touchdown drives in the game already, and had just given up touchdowns on two consecutive drives to let Cincy potentially tie the game, _which is why they were in that scenario in the first place_. ---
**Author:** ![N9IWP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/n9iwp/32/3154_2.png) [@N9IWP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/N9IWP)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/37 "2024-11-08T19:03:34Z")
Dies the Bye help the Packers? I’m guessing some injuries will heal, but isn’t there also some rusting that happens due to not playing? Brian ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/38 "2024-11-08T19:10:52Z")
> [@N9IWP](#): > > Dies the Bye help the Packers? I’m guessing some injuries will heal, but isn’t there also some rusting that happens due to not playing? I think it does help more than it hurts. It gives some of their key guys (e.g., Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs, Josh Myers, Jaire Alexander) more time to rehab injuries. It also seems like the offense, in particular, could use the extra time to address some of the things that haven’t been working right in recent weeks ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/39 "2024-11-08T19:20:49Z")
The Jets will have their third different kicker in three weeks this Sunday. They had started the season with veteran Greg Zuerlein, who was inconsistent, and who went on IR a week ago with a knee injury. After an open tryout, they signed journeyman Riley Patterson, who was 3-3 on XPs last week. But, the 49ers cut Anders Carlson earlier this week, whom they had signed as an injury replacement a few weeks back; in two games, Carlson was 5-5 on field goals, but missed an extra point (one of the reasons that the Packers had moved on from him). When Carlson became available, the Jets grabbed him, and cut Patterson. > **[Ahead of key Cards game, Jets switch kickers](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/42269918/ahead-key-cardinals-matchup-jets-again-make-kicker-switch)** > > The Jets have turned to their third kicker in the past three games, releasing Riley Patterson after one game and signing Anders Carlson to the practice squad on Friday, with the expectation he will be their kicker Sunday against the Arizona... ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2024, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720/40 "2024-11-08T19:27:00Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > There is absolutely no way for the refs to win. Yeah, that’s fair. I’m not surprised the head/mask grab wasn’t called. The hold actually looked pretty egregious to me, but after watching the replay a few more times the ball was already out so it didn’t really effect the play. The TE also really hammed it up. Burrow just missed the throw. A little bit lower and I think the catch might get made. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-10/1009720.md?page=3)