# NFL 2024-25: Week 9

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Tags:** football-nfl\
**Created:** [October 29, 2024, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409 "2024-10-29T15:47:40Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 3

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**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/41 "2024-11-04T16:12:27Z")

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Dennis Allen: toast. Losing to the Panthers gets you fired. Of course this does nothing to address their real issue, the cap problems they’ve been putting off for a decade.

> **[Saints fire coach Allen after seventh loss in row](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/42189276/sources-saints-fire-coach-dennis-allen-7th-loss-row)**
>
> The Saints fired coach Dennis Allen after losing their seventh straight game Sunday to fall to 2-7 on the season.

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**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/42 "2024-11-04T17:22:25Z")

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> [@Jas09](#):
>
> This is really the problem. Good teams have plays that are very high probability of success that they save for these situations. And they focus on execution to such a high level that they are consistently well over that 50% threshold.

Good teams usually aren’t down by 14 in the first place.

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**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/43 "2024-11-04T17:34:57Z")

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Lol. Good point. Kind of goes with @Railer13 's point as well. If you’re getting beat late you might just want to go for the tie and hope you get lucky in OT. Especially since you probably aren’t good enough to convert the 2PAT anyway, or score another TD.

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**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/44 "2024-11-04T18:12:42Z")

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I suppose the _kind_ of good team matters as well. If you’re a good team because you have elite defense, good special teams and above average offense, I’m thinking kicking the PAT is the smart play.

But conversely if you’re good mainly because you have a rockstar QB driving an elite offense, yeah, that whole go for 2 thing starts to look more appealing.

Nobody has ever described the Giants’ offense under Daniel Jones as that second example, so how about you just put away that stupid chart, Daboll?

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**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/45 "2024-11-04T18:24:29Z")

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> [@Stratocaster](#):
>
> Went for it on 4th twice instead of taking the sure field goal, and _three_ times went for a two-point conversion.

> [@EllisDee](#):
>
> I believe the numbers say you are supposed to go for it instead of kicking.

> [@EllisDee](#):
>
> But conversely if you’re good mainly because you have a rockstar QB driving an elite offense, yeah, that whole go for 2 thing starts to look more appealing.

As has been pointed out (and what started this discussion), the strategy didn’t work for the Eagles yesterday. Now, I don’t know if Hurts is a ‘rockstar’ quarterback, but he’s pretty damn good.

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**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/46 "2024-11-04T20:42:33Z")

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> [@Borborygmi](#):
>
> Saquon Barkley hurdles a defender while running after a catch. Backwards.

That was amazing - I can legitimately say I have never seen any player do something like that before. A highlight reel for the ages.

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**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/47 "2024-11-04T20:49:21Z")

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Dak Prescott out for ‘multiple’ weeks with a hamstring injury.

A bad Cowboys season just got a bit worse.

> **[Cowboys QB Dak Prescott will reportedly miss multiple weeks with hamstring...](https://sports.yahoo.com/cowboys-qb-dak-prescott-will-reportedly-miss-multiple-weeks-with-hamstring-injury-184621484.html)**
>
> The Cowboys will have to play without their starting QB.

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**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/48 "2024-11-04T22:18:44Z")

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He’s a stiff. A solid-at-best, flawed quarterback who is paid as if he’s Tom Brady. I hope he recovers quickly and QBs the Cowboys for ten more years.

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**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/49 "2024-11-04T22:33:22Z")

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> [@Stratocaster](#):
>
> A solid-at-best, flawed quarterback who is paid as if he’s Tom Brady.

Indeed. He benefits from being a guy with whom Jerry Jones has fallen in love, and thus, seems to be given far more chances to succeed than he deserves (see also Jason Garrett).

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**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\
**Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/50 "2024-11-04T23:30:48Z")

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They have no depth, rarely have under Jones. They’re top heavy; if everyone is healthy they’re great, but once the stars go down, they’re fucked.

And losing Quinn was a bigger loss than they’ll ever admit. Their D was terrible under Mike Nolan, and have gone right back to that under Zimmer. Granted, no Parsons, no Lawrence, no Diggs, but they weren’t playing that great _with_ those guys before they got hurt.

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**Author:** ![Patx2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/73ab20/32.png) [@Patx2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Patx2)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2024, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/51 "2024-11-05T00:08:32Z")

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Yes, I was annoyed. The extra points would’ve given them enough instead of making it such a close game. They 2 pointers weren’t needed, the first one it was so early in the game, ridiculous.

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**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2024, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/52 "2024-11-05T00:44:06Z")

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> [@Stratocaster](#):
>
> He’s a stiff.

Bereft of life he rests in peace?

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**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2024, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/53 "2024-11-05T00:47:25Z")

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It was a _really_ bad hamstring injury.

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**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2024, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/54 "2024-11-05T01:19:15Z")

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The two point conversion is tough. Imagine you’re 4th and goal at the 2 yard line. That’s pretty much the same scenario. You are far from guaranteed to get that TD.

Another thing is that I see it attempted often when you have nothing to lose. Let’s say you’re down by 5 late in a game, and you get a TD. With those 6 points, you are now up by 1. If you kick the extra point, you are up by 2 and you will be behind if you give up a FG. If you go for the 2 point conversion, and you get up, you are now up by 3 and a FG will just be a tie, and if you fail you are still up by 1, so you will still be behind if you give up a FG. Losing by 1 point and losing by 2 points will make no difference.

So in that play, the 2 point conversion is a tiny bit of insurance, but not consequential. So is there a psychological factor? If you fail to convert, no big deal, you still have a lead, and it’s still up to the defense.

Just total speculation on my part, but maybe the circumstances that lead to a 2 point conversion attempt are situations where the situation affects the players’ ability to pull it off. Either they are desperate and try too hard, or have nothing to lose and don’t try hard enough? There’s probably no way to know.

Or it can be as simple as I said initially, having only one chance for a TD from the 2 yard line is really tough.

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**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2024, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/55 "2024-11-05T01:37:26Z")

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Well, for Sirianni at least, there was zero strategic, “numeric” reason, except arguably for the last one—and that was only because of the prior points he pissed away.

In the 4th quarter, depending on the score and time remaining, it may well be a no-brainer to go for two. First half? Bank the sure points.

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**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2024, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/56 "2024-11-05T04:33:39Z")

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KC manages to win yet another 1-score game, this time in OT. The Bucs certainly should have gone for two when they scored to pull within one with 27 seconds left.

It worked out for the Chiefs (and for their fans, like me), but I really think the overtime rules should be changed so that each team gets a possession.

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**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2024, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/57 "2024-11-05T04:38:54Z")

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At the very least, they should have saved that last time out and run some more clock. That’s still a play for overtime, but it doesn’t give KC any chance at getting in range to kick a game winner with all that time left over.

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**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2024, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/58 "2024-11-05T13:22:25Z")

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> [@Railer13](#):
>
> The Bucs certainly should have gone for two

Surprisingly, the talking heads today are saying that the analytics slightly favor kicking in that scenario. Something like a 42% chance to win kicking, 41% chance to win going for 2.

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**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2024, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/59 "2024-11-05T14:37:13Z")

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> [@EllisDee](#):
>
> Surprisingly, the talking heads today are saying that the analytics slightly favor kicking in that scenario.

I was reading the same thing. Had the Bucs gone for two and converted, the Chiefs would have been forced to go for it on the ensuing fourth down, rather than punting. So I suppose that’s a factor in the analytics.

I still would have gone for two. You’re on the road against the best team in the league, and you’ve just marched down the field in two minutes to get within a point. The Chiefs defense was on their heels. Go for the win.

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**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\
**Post date:** [November 5, 2024, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-2024-25-week-9/1009409/60 "2024-11-05T14:37:27Z")

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> [@EllisDee](#):
>
> Surprisingly, the talking heads today are saying that the analytics slightly favor kicking in that scenario. Something like a 42% chance to win kicking, 41% chance to win going for 2.

Right, but that’s probably because of what @Great_Antibob mentioned - the Bucs screwed up and used a timeout leaving a decent chunk of time on the clock when they scored (almost 30 seconds).

_Trigger warning for Bills fans_: Mahomes has shown that 30 seconds is more than enough time to move into field goal range.

Considering how easily they were moving the ball I have to think the right play is let the clock run down low before using your TO, and then play for the win.

But hey, as a Chiefs fan I’ll take it. I have no idea how this team is undefeated, but on the other hand it feel like in each game there have been chances to make it a blowout (Worthy doesn’t keep his feet in, Perrine drops a catch that would run more time off, Kelce fumble, Reid missed INT).

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