# NFL draft **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [April 23, 2006, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859 "2006-04-23T15:42:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 19
**Author:** ![BabaBooey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/dfb087/32.png) [@BabaBooey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BabaBooey)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/361 "2006-04-30T06:39:01Z")
Hodge is still available? Are you kidding me? Saints have a shot at him with the second pick tomorrow, and they damn well better take him. ---
**Author:** ![BabaBooey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/dfb087/32.png) [@BabaBooey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BabaBooey)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/362 "2006-04-30T06:42:55Z")
Nevermind, one site claimed he was available, but it looks like GB took him. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 6:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/363 "2006-04-30T06:48:01Z")
Gabe Watson is still there. He better be a Lion tomorrow, dammit. Darryl Tapp was a huge steal that late in the second. Big ups to the Seahawks, there. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 9:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/364 "2006-04-30T09:22:11Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > What a waste, though. Obviously they covet this DE, which is why they traded down in the first place, but this stinks. At the least, this is the Giants’ way of breaking the bad news that Justin Tuck sucks. You misspelled “Eric Moore.” Last year Tiki wasn’t worth a contract extension, and now Tuck sucks? Do you watch the games? Remember how many times we only fielded a single DT and put Strahan, Osi _and_ Tuck all on the line rushing the passer? (Coinciding with a multiple game stretch without allowing a touchdown, I might add.) Come over to the light side; the koolaid is way tastier than the haterade. On an unrelated note, once again the Wall Street Journal comes up with an interesting metric for predicting future performance. Last year it was the “3rd down” rule, wherein the disparity between “success” on first and second downs was collectively compared against success on third downs. Teams where the success was similar in both cases performed about the same the following year. Those that were more successful on 3rd downs were less successful the following year, and teams that were less successful on 3rd downs were more successful the following year. The logic being that only around 20% of plays were 3rd down situations, and thus if your 3rd down performance varied widely from the other 80% of your snaps, you were either playing above or below your actual talent due to a statistical anomaly. This analysis offered predictions that ended up strongly correlated to actual performance on the field. Basically, the 80% of plays (1st & 2nd down) reflected your true potential, and if the other 20% (3rd down) had you exceeding that potential, it would give you short-lived but ultimately unsustainable success, whereas if the opposite happened, you would have been hamstrung by a statistical fluke and likely to shake off that artificial hindrance. Anyway, yesterday they had yet another one of these interesting tidbits, but it was regarding QB prospects in the draft. They began with the basic assumption that yards per attempt should be the best predictor as it measures both completion percentage and the ability to throw the long ball. (I nodded my head while reading this part, as I’m all about rate stats, but I can already hear **Omni** groaning.) They found almost no correlation between YPA in college and NFL success. When they looked closer, however, they noticed that a lot of the busts (Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, et al…) had much better YPA averages in their senior (or last) college season. So they measured the differential between the last year and all previous years, and called this new number the “senior blip.” Guys like Akili and Leaf had huge senior blips; on the order of 1.6. Guys like Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer, OTOH, were in the neighborhood of 0.38. They then calculated the senior blip for all drafted quarterbacks (from any round) that became starters in the NFL, and found a strong correlation between it and actual NFL success. The results of the big three in this draft? Leinart is the surest bet. Forgive the long explanation, but I found it fascinating, and the long needless explanation of their 3rd down metric from last year was offered to illustrate that I think both these statistical analysese (sp?) function on the exact same principle, and appear to be accurate for the exact same reason. So, basically, I’ve now read _far and away_ more insightful analysis about the NFL in the Wall Street Journal than I’ve ever seen in Sports Illustrated. Odd, that. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/365 "2006-04-30T11:19:47Z")
From the NY Post this morning: > [@](#): > > Trading down seven spots was a minor risk in the eyes of the Giants. There were seven players remaining on the board “we could have lived with,” according to Accorsi, and five players “we would have been happy with.” Three of the five were still there at No. 32, and Kiwanuka was the highest-rated of the five. > > After No. 25 and before No. 32, the Giants would have been happy with defensive tackle John McCargo (who went to the Bills at No. 26) or cornerback Kelly Jennings (who went at No. 31 to the Seahawks). > > If the Giants stayed at No. 25, they would have picked Kiwanuka, anyway. From the Daily News: > [@](#): > > “We wouldn’t have picked him if we didn’t feel he was going to be on the field,” Accorsi said. “I know he’s at a position where we have two Pro Bowlers, but pass rushers are like home run hitters and pitchers. You just never have enough of them.” > > The 6-5, 265-pound Kiwanuka certainly has home-run potential. He had 37-1/2 sacks in four years of college and has blazing, Jevon Kearse-like speed. But he’ll be sitting behind Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck on the Giants’ depth chart. Given that depth, defensive end was hardly a need. > > But Accorsi said the Giants were eyeing a group of five players for their first-round selection, and Kiwanuka had the highest grade of them all. > > “If it was close, we would have gone with need,” Accorsi said. “But it wasn’t close.” I’m reminded of my pre-draft thoughts. The Giants didn’t _have_ any starter needs, with the possible exception of a DT. (Joseph and Robbins have both been starters for the Giants, so it’s not like there’s _nobody_.) More importantly, no DTs come in and make a splash as rookies; the position usually takes two seasons to make the adjustment. (Witness Joseph.) So without any need for a starter in the draft, I’m starting to actually like the pick. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/366 "2006-04-30T12:45:30Z")
> [@BabaBooey](#): > > Hodge is still available? Are you kidding me? Saints have a shot at him with the second pick tomorrow, and they damn well better take him. I was thrilled they got him. He’s a smart, fast motor, character guy who seems to always be around the ball. The reason, I think, he didn’t go earlier is his small size and big questions about his ability in coverage. He may get on the field a fair amount this year, which is a good thing for a third round pick. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/367 "2006-04-30T14:01:20Z")
**Review Day One** **Preview Day Two** : I am not sure which brings a bigger smile to my face, the Packers seemingly having a good draft, or the Bears having a crappy one. Sure it’s only day one, but, so far, I like what I see, but with reservations. AJ Hawk (1st rd, 5th pick), OLB Ohio St. Daryn Colledge (2nd rd, 47th pick) G/T Boise State Greg Jennings (2nd rd, 52nd pick) WR, Western Michigan Abdul Hodge (3rd rd, 67th pick) ILB, Iowa Jason Spitz (3rd rd, 75th pick), C/G, Louisville. The Pack made a ton of trades, including getting the 37th pick for Javon Walker. Although I think Walker was worth a first rounder, I have no problems getting that high of a second rounder for him. A good trade for the Pack to get rid of a problem. So the Pack were sitting there with the 36th and 37th picks of the draft, and I was quite happy. Then they traded down. When it happened, I was a bit miffed. And by “a bit miffed” I mean frothing at the mouth infuriated. Some players we passed on by trading down: Chad Jackson, Winston Justice, Jimmy Williams, and the second best guard in the draft Lutui. They did get 2 late thirds and an early fourth for trading down, but, with those players there, I think they gave up too much. It works out, basically, getting Colledge instead of Lutui, and Greg Jennings and Jason Spitz for Chad Jackson. Let’s just say I’m not overly impressed. They did the trade down again in the third round, and now have a couple picks in the early 4th round. Those trades I don’t mind because there wasn’t the talent on the board that was there in the second round. Personally, I think the Pack fucked up. But I said that about Nick Collins, so what do I know. TT, once again went with small school guys that I didn’t know much about. Here’s the breakdown so far: AJ Hawk - Great pick and a great player. He’ll have an immediate positive impact and, paired with Barnett and possibly Hodge, we have a nice linebacker crew. I have no problem letting Leinart and Vernon Davis go to fill in a team need with an outstanding player. Colledge - He’s undersized and not technically proficient enough to be a tackle, but will be a good to great guard. He’s fast enough to pull on sweeps and screens, which the Pack do a fair amount of, and is strong for his size. Much better in pass protection and a 4 year starter whose well developed so he can start right away, which will make Favre happier. I think he’ll do fine, because he’s a good fit. Another smaller school guy. Greg Jennings - Dumb pick. Not only trading away Chad Jackson, but I’m not impressed by this guy much and he could have been had much later. He’s extremely productive guy from a small school. He’s only 5’11", 197 lb, with a 4.53 40, so he’s not a big guy, or a burner. He’s a smallish possession receiver who has great stats, but hasn’t had to play the best of the best. If we’re lucky, he’ll develop into a Donald Driver clone, but he’ll never be a Javon Walker. I’m not impressed, and they could have done much better. Abdul Hodge - Great pick. Another young linebacker that is smart and fast. He may have some problems if asked to go into coverage, but he’s great against the run, if a bit undersized. He’ll need a widebody to keep lineman off of him, but he’s a potential starter right out of the gate. I like! Jason Spitz - Good pick, with risk. He’s versatile, and can play guard or center. I’m guessing he’ll start at guard, and eventually move to center, but it all depends on how Scott Wells does at center. He’s a bit of project, because he’s a bit sloppy in technique and effort. However, he could turn into a dominant player because the size, meanness, and aggressiveness, but could also be a bust cause of his head. Overall: The Pack filled their biggest needs, getting one amazing and one great linebacker, and a couple of interior linemen. That makes me very happy. But they still need some help in the secondary, and could use a couple of picks at skill positions on offense. So far, I like the players they got, but I’m pissed at the players they passed on. I’m not impressed with Jennings either. Players left that I want in a Packer uniform: Marcus Maxey - a huge project, but could be an amazing CB. Victor Adeyanju - another project, but a four year starting DE in the Big Ten. With great coaching, he could be another KGB, if not better. Gabe Watson - a value pick, but I think he could be a bust (but it’s the 4th round, so no big deal). A gigantic space filling DT who has fallen because he’s lazy and has weight issues. If he ever gets his head on straight, he’d be a great fit in the Packers scheme and can keep linemen off our young linebacking crew. PJ Daniels - RB GT. A 2004 injury slowed him down after a great sophmore season. If he ever gets back to what he was, he can be a workhorse back and is another good character/desire guy who can help the team. I know it’s stupid to grade a draft before 4 years or so, but I just can’t help myself. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/368 "2006-04-30T15:25:05Z")
So far in the 4th round, it looks like Slash is the word, with both Michael Robingson and Brad Smith going off the board in the first 7 picks. The Packers have 2 of the next 6 picks, so it should be interesting. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/369 "2006-04-30T15:46:24Z")
Damn! The Packers didn’t grab Gabe Watson when they had their chance, and instead we get a kick returner who will break in half if there is a stiff wind. And then they trade their second pick of the 4th round, the 109 pick to the Eagles, who, by the way, are having an outstanding draft. Maybe we’ll win the draft by simply getting more players than any other team. By the by, am I the only one here, now. Y’all are poseur, first day wimps!!! ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/370 "2006-04-30T15:50:52Z")
Oh shush. You aren’t the only one here. I just woke up!! ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/371 "2006-04-30T15:55:32Z")
Brian Calhoun in the third round for the Lions? Hm. I kinda like that. When’s **Ominscent** going to come in and slobber all over Devin Hester’s signing? ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/372 "2006-04-30T16:09:42Z")
> [@Least Original User Name Ever](#): > > Oh shush. You aren’t the only one here. I just woke up!! I’ve been up since 6:00 a.m., reviewing the draft, making calls to prospects, and advising T.T. That, or I was playing with my kids, I don’t remember which one. I’ll also note that the Pack just picked Will Blackmon, who is intriguing. He played 3 years as a CB and moved to WR his senior season, but he didn’t do great at either position. He’s got the athleticism and skills, but he’s unrefined, and played like garbage at the Senior Bowl An intriguing project, but a project nonetheless. The Pack also missed out on Victor Adeyanju and Demetrius Williams (who I had no idea was still available and they should have grabbed). Aaaargghhh!! ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/373 "2006-04-30T16:18:16Z")
And ESPN needs to shut up about Marcus Vick. He’ll never be an NFL quarterback. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/374 "2006-04-30T16:29:41Z")
Nice going, warrior. I honestly thought the draft was going on again at about the same time. I agree with your Will Blackmon analysis. Is it just me, or did the weird first round seem to cause a ripple effect of talent sliding down the draft as a whole? Marcus Vick will get drafted. Trust me on this. He’s got a famous name and he’s got talent. He’s a scumbag and might end up like Lawrence Philips, but it’s entirely possible. ---
**Author:** ![Kiros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/439d5e/32.png) [@Kiros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kiros)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/375 "2006-04-30T16:35:10Z")
The Pats represented by picking the first guy who isn’t even on [SI.com](http://SI.com)’s draft board, K Stephen Gostkowski of Memphis. Seems a bit high for a kicker to me, especially one no one seems to have heard of… though you have to imagine SOMEONE else wanted him for the Pats to take him that high. The other curious thing is that they’re five picks in and haven’t picked a single defensive player, after they were repeatedly pegged to pick LBs and CBs in most mock drafts. Not going to watch the second round on TV, as I can’t really afford to not get any work done for two days in a row, but will keep track on the 'net and on this thread 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/376 "2006-04-30T17:41:01Z")
Well, the Packers got yet another project (which probably isn’t bad in the 5th round), this time at QB in Ingle Martin. I’m not sure I’d pick a guy who couldn’t beat out Chris Leak at Florida, but supposedly he did well at the combine and, although too short, he’s got a chance to be an NFL backup in a few years. I’ll have to see how he does in NFL Europe. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/377 "2006-04-30T18:29:53Z")
These are the fun rounds. You can take fliers on people, but teams and dynasties are made with this second day. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/378 "2006-04-30T19:25:18Z")
> [@Ellis Dee](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > What a waste, though. Obviously they covet this DE, which is why they traded down in the first place, but this stinks. At the least, this is the Giants’ way of breaking the bad news that Justin Tuck sucks. > > You misspelled “Eric Moore.” > > Last year Tiki wasn’t worth a contract extension, and now Tuck sucks? Do you watch the games? Remember how many times we only fielded a single DT and put Strahan, Osi and Tuck all on the line rushing the passer? (Coinciding with a multiple game stretch without allowing a touchdown, I might add.) Come over to the light side; the koolaid is way tastier than the haterade. I thought Tuck looked good last year. I’m just saying that if the front office had any real confidence in him, they wouldn’t (or shouldn’t) have drafted another pass-rushing DE with their 1st rounder. > [@](#): > > On an unrelated note, once again the Wall Street Journal comes up with an interesting metric for predicting future performance. Last year it was the “3rd down” rule, wherein the disparity between “success” on first and second downs was collectively compared against success on third downs. Teams where the success was similar in both cases performed about the same the following year. Those that were more successful on 3rd downs were less successful the following year, and teams that were less successful on 3rd downs were more successful the following year. Wall Street Journal? You misspelled “[footballoutsiders.com](http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=266&cat=3%22%5B/url),” which used that method (among others) to predict San Diego’s resurgence two years ago. In fairness, it may have been an FO writer freelancing for the WSJ that you read. If you’re interested in that sort of thing, I strongly recommend their book, _Pro Football Prospectus 2005_, or coming in July, _PFP 2006_. Chalk full of statistical goodness like that, including a different method for predicting the success of college QBs in the upcoming book. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/379 "2006-04-30T19:31:05Z")
> [@Kiros](#): > > The Pats represented by picking the first guy who isn’t even on [SI.com](http://SI.com)’s draft board, K Stephen Gostkowski of Memphis. Seems a bit high for a kicker to me, especially one no one seems to have heard of… though you have to imagine SOMEONE else wanted him for the Pats to take him that high. I remember him from some of ESPN’s skills competitions. I know how little those count for, but he blew all the other kickers out of the water. He had some serious power. ---
**Author:** ![Kiros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/439d5e/32.png) [@Kiros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kiros)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2006, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859/380 "2006-04-30T20:03:56Z")
Yeah, I poked around a little to see what we had, and the common thread is that this guy has serious range, especially compared to the the other kickers coming out this year. He was something like 4 for 4 from 50+, while Huston was 0-fer over some number in the mid-high 40s. Sounds good to me, though I’m still not sure about a kicker in the fourth. Credit to the Globe’s website, which did a profile on him last week because they thought him a likely pick at the position. Like I said, [SI.com](http://SI.com) didn’t even have him listed. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859.md?page=18) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-draft/353859.md?page=20)