# NFL: Give an HONEST assessment of your team **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [December 1, 2010, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489 "2010-12-01T00:05:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2010, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/81 "2010-12-14T20:57:27Z")
Yes, very much so. I’d forgotten that point, which I had intended to make in this very thread. Thanks much. Much like I find a ten 10-yard rushes much more impressive than one 99-yard rush. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2010, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/82 "2010-12-14T21:19:28Z")
Updated assessment of my 49ers. The Troy Smith experiment is over, now that teams have figured out how to stop him. Alex Smith now gets to audition for his next team. Hopefully he won’t play too well, if we make the playoffs, the brass might get stupid and bring back Singletary. Plus, that would drop us down in the draft. Correction on the playoffs: even if we win out, Seattle still has to lose one more game, but that looks likely. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2010, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/83 "2010-12-14T21:39:52Z")
1. Atlanta Falcons 2. 11-2 3. Yes 3a) I think if they lose out, they’ll still make the playoffs 4. The team is solid 5. Their history 6. It’s the Falcons… but then, even the _Saints_ won a Super Bowl so there’s still a possibility that… naw… can’t get my hopes up. They’ve been dashed too many (well, maybe 2) times already re: the Falcons and the SB. 7. I’m thrilled, but not expectant ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 8:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/84 "2010-12-15T08:11:22Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Here is our primary disconnect. I buy into receptions, and always have. Agree to disagree? Sure, there’s no point going any farther in that case. I’ll just say I’m not as impressed by a guy with 10 catches on 20 targets for 100 yards as I am by a guy who has 4 catches on 4 targets for 100 yards. I could catch ten balls a game right now if they threw it to me 20 times. > [@](#): > > Much like I find a ten 10-yard rushes much more impressive than one 99-yard rush **Great** players can go their entire careers without a 99 yard rush, and it’s damn near a certainty that rush resulted in 7 points. The other guy? Maybe, maybe not. I’ll take the guy who could outrun NFL DBs for 99 yards and finish the play (a LOT of NFL RBs tire out after 50 yards and get caught from behind. Even DeSean jackson almost got caught from behind on his long TD). ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 8:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/85 "2010-12-15T08:55:17Z")
Most long runs are a product of receivers blocking downfield, not outrunning everyone. For a more realistic example, I’m more impressed with (and think it’s more difficult to achieve) five 10-yard runs than one 50-yard run. As for targets, I think you’re looking at it to simplistically. Unless you’re a freak of nature like Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson, you have to get reasonably open to get a target. The receiver with 20 targets is consistently getting open, which is impressive in and of itself even if he doesn’t catch a single pass. It’s worth pointing out that last season, Steve Smith caught 67% of his 159 targets while Jeremy Maclin only caught 61% of his 99 targets. Smith also had a better average (11.4) than Brandon Marshall (11.1) and Larry Fitzgerald (11.3). ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/86 "2010-12-15T14:19:01Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Yes, very much so. I’d forgotten that point, which I had intended to make in this very thread. Thanks much. Then I… but… …oh. I don’t understand that attitude at all. I love Brandon Marshall, but I don’t think he was the best receiver in the league for the last three years. You apparently do. ETA: I _do_ think Steve Smith 2.0 is a better receiver right now than Jeremy Maclin, for what it’s worth. ---
**Author:** ![Sailboat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sailboat/32/461_2.png) [@Sailboat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sailboat)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/87 "2010-12-15T14:31:24Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > 1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. > > … > > Unfortunately, we do give up a ton of yards on the ground; 27th in rush defense, and allowing 4.7 YPC. Ha ha ha! The Redskins sure ran up some yards on you guys…aw crap. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/88 "2010-12-15T14:58:56Z")
> [@Sailboat](#): > > Ha ha ha! The Redskins sure ran up some yards on you guys…aw crap. Were the Redskins not the most inept, bumbling team that ever took the field they should have won that game easily. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/89 "2010-12-15T15:21:20Z")
Well, not necessarily. They were dominated as completely in the second half as they dominated the Bucs in the first, and Tampa offset those two missed field goals by fumbling on 1st and goal at the 1. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/90 "2010-12-15T15:53:48Z")
> [@DCnDC](#): > > Were the Redskins not the most inept, bumbling team that ever took the field they should have won that game easily. My Detroit Lions would like to have a bumble-off with you, except they can’t stop the paperwork from slipping out of their hands like a wet bar of soap. Also, does anyone else hear Yakety Sax when their football team plays? ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/91 "2010-12-15T16:00:04Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Well, not necessarily. They were dominated as completely in the second half as they dominated the Bucs in the first, and Tampa offset those two missed field goals by fumbling on 1st and goal at the 1. That’s fair. But Orakpo got mugged on the Bucs TD but the back judge “was looking downfield” for some bullshit reason. Not to make excuses.😉 ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/92 "2010-12-15T16:06:26Z")
Meh. There’s holding on every play, and that one looks much worse as a still photo than it did on film. Anyway, Orakpo would have bounced right off Josh Freeman. He’s a monster - sacked just 20 times all season, despite a patchwork line. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/93 "2010-12-15T16:38:14Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Mike Furrey is a good example, thanks much. > Receptions are the primary measure of a receiver, much like yards are for a running back. (Even though average might be better in both cases.) > > I’m reminded of my debate with **Omni** years ago about Ben Roethlisberger, where I argued he was awesome due to his rating and Omni argued that his rating was inflated by throwing fewer passes. Turns out Omni is right; throwing more passes statistically lowers your passer rating. There could be a similar effect with receivers. > > Jason Avant has already set his career best mark in receptions this year with 45, on pace for ~56 for the season. That’s just not comparable to a 100-catch receiver regardless of the yardage disparity, IMO. > > You point to last season as an aberration, but this season Smith had 47 catches through 8 games, then he missed the next four games due to a torn pectoral muscle. I think a case can be made that he looks to be a 90+ catch receiver year-in and year-out. It’s not like he got all the targets in the first half of this season. If anything, Nicks got more targets. Furry had the balls to run the crossing patterns without being too scared to hang on to the ball. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/94 "2010-12-15T16:59:26Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Furry had the balls to run the crossing patterns without being too scared to hang on to the ball. So was Keyshawn Johnson and Terrell Owens. ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/95 "2010-12-15T17:04:26Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Most long runs are a product of receivers blocking downfield, not outrunning everyone. For a more realistic example, I’m more impressed with (and think it’s more difficult to achieve) five 10-yard runs than one 50-yard run. Some are helped by WR blocking, some aren’t (long runs up the middle aren’t at all, for example). What isn’t debatable is that you **do** have to outrun everyone, or they’ll catch you from behind. They’re still running to catch you. And I’m not just talking about speed, but also endurance. If you’ve ever tried sprinting 50 yards, it isn’t easy to have any gas left in the tank for the last ten yards. > [@](#): > > As for targets, I think you’re looking at it to simplistically. Unless you’re a freak of nature like Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson, you have to get reasonably open to get a target. The receiver with 20 targets is consistently getting open, which is impressive in and of itself even if he doesn’t catch a single pass. Partly true. But as is a common lament about young quarterbacks, they tend to “stare down” a single receiver and throw him the ball, even when double covered. Sometimes plays/routes are just called for a guy, whether he’s open or not. And considering how the game is played today where a DB can’t touch you after 5 yards, it’s not at all impressive to me that someone “gets open” consistently; if you aren’t, you don’t belong in the league. > [@](#): > > It’s worth pointing out that last season, Steve Smith caught 67% of his 159 targets while Jeremy Maclin only caught 61% of his 99 targets. Smith also had a better average (11.4) than Brandon Marshall (11.1) and Larry Fitzgerald (11.3). Are you trying to lump Smith in with those two guys? I think that might be a mistake. He isn’t in their league, certainly. How many more catches does someone have to make to make them demonstrably better in your eyes? Because had Maclin gotten 159 targets last season like Smith did, he would have gotten 97 catches. I don’t think ten catches is a big enough difference to hang your hat on. Especially since Maclin would have gotten 1338 yards on his 97 catches since his average was 13.8 to Smith’s 11.4. I’ll take 97/1338 over 107/1220 every single time without a hint of hesitation. > [@Really Not All That Bright](#): > > ETA: I _do_ think Steve Smith 2.0 is a better receiver right now than Jeremy Maclin, for what it’s worth I would have too, a week ago. Now after looking at the stats? I think it’s pretty clear Maclin is better. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/96 "2010-12-15T17:14:06Z")
Same team as **gazpacho** and **TheBoltEater** here. SD Chargers. 6 and 5. The Chargers have invented new ways to lose games this year. Love them Chargers, but my confidence is very low in their ability to produce wins. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/97 "2010-12-15T17:19:07Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Meh. There’s holding on every play, and that one looks much worse as a still photo than it did on film. I hear this “there’s holding on every play” shit all the time and even if it were true, doesn’t make it right. > [@ESPN](#): > > “Most people would say you can call holding every play – no you can’t,” [NFL VP of Officiating Carl Johnson] said. > > Players lock up all the time – linemen in the trenches, running backs and linebackers, receivers and defensive backs – but if it doesn’t affect the play, there’s no call. Johnson described three major categories of holding. > > “We want to see a grab and restriction, a hook and restriction and a takedown,” he said. “And all of these must happen at the point of attack. If it doesn’t, if the defender is not materially affected and it doesn’t happen where the ball is, then we don’t want holding called.” [That](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vymp14vUKkc) wasn’t a “hook and restriction”? The refs blew it. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/98 "2010-12-15T17:38:39Z")
> [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](#): > > Also, does anyone else hear Yakety Sax when their football team plays? I hear a funeral dirge… ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/99 "2010-12-15T17:57:12Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > Same team as **gazpacho** and **TheBoltEater** here. SD Chargers. > > 6 and 5. > > The Chargers have invented new ways to lose games this year. Love them Chargers, but my confidence is very low in their ability to produce wins. The Chargers are easy to dissect: horrible special teams. If they even had average special teams, they might be “The Best Team In Football”. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/100 "2010-12-15T18:47:48Z")
> [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](#): > > So was Keyshawn Johnson and Terrell Owens. The WRs the Lions drafted as saviors did not. They heard footsteps and dropped everything thrown to them in the middle. It was ugly. Furry did it much cheaper. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489.md?page=6)