# NFL: Give an HONEST assessment of your team **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [December 1, 2010, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489 "2010-12-01T00:05:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Sailboat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sailboat/32/461_2.png) [@Sailboat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sailboat)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/101 "2010-12-15T19:11:24Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Well, not necessarily. They were dominated as completely in the second half as they dominated the Bucs in the first, and Tampa offset those two missed field goals by fumbling on 1st and goal at the 1. So was that, like, the _worst ever_ halftime adjustment by Shanahan (I know! We’ll stop doing the stuff that works!), or the Second Coming of Tampa Bay? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/102 "2010-12-15T19:59:50Z")
Bit of both, I think. Shanahan kept giving the ball to Ryan Torain, but the Buccaneers’ defensive line stiffened and they started bringing MLB Barrett Ruud up to the line. Torain could beat us, but it turned out McNabb couldn’t. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2010, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/103 "2010-12-15T22:08:42Z")
> [@Jules\_Andre](#): > > Some are helped by WR blocking, some aren’t (long runs up the middle aren’t at all, for example). What isn’t debatable is that you **do** have to outrun everyone, or they’ll catch you from behind. No, you’re just plain wrong. Tiki Barber never outran a single person in his life and yet he has multiple 90+ yard runs. If the defenders are being blocked, they aren’t chasing you. Another way to look at it: Justin Tuck ran LaDainian Tomlinson down from behind 40+ yards downfield in Tuck’s rookie season. Generally speaking, big runs are either from crowding the line too much, at which point you have such a head start nobody is catching you anyway, or you have receivers blocking downfield for you. > [@](#): > > Are you trying to lump Smith in with those two guys? I think that might be a mistake. He isn’t in their league, certainly. If that’s the case, you can’t really use Smith’s avg as a knock, since guys “clearly out of his league” have a lower avg. > [@](#): > > How many more catches does someone have to make to make them demonstrably better in your eyes? Because had Maclin gotten 159 targets last season like Smith did, he would have gotten 97 catches. That’s the giant leap I’m saying you are unjustified to make. You assume his catch % would stay at 61%, but we have exactly zero evidence to support that. And besides, at 61%, the QB may start looking elsewhere, at other receivers who catch it more often, thus resulting in him never being able to get 159 targets in the first place. This is a basic point you can’t just hand-wave away with assumptions that your guys scale well. Until they prove they can, you can’t make that assertion. As to how many catches a receiver needs to convince me their production will scale, I’d say in the 80s. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2010, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/104 "2010-12-16T15:14:24Z")
Maclin was playing with McNabb last season, who is far less accurate than Eli. Tiki Barber has an identical twin fast enough to play 15 NFL seasons at corner, and was a punt and kick returner for his first couple of seasons. He might not be the fastest guy in the world, but he’s sure as hell outrun people. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2010, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/105 "2010-12-17T01:34:07Z")
Of course you’re right. What the hell do I know, I only watched every snap of Barber’s career. ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2010, 7:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/106 "2010-12-17T07:38:47Z")
I was formulating a reply to your last post, **Ellis** , and decided I should catch a highlight video of Barber to show visual evidence of him outrunning people. Just to rub it in, you know? “Cite!?” and all that… I found a great highlight video on Youtube. Tons of great runs. He got caught from behind on every single one. Every single one involved some blocking from a WR, too. So I’ll concede that point, though I think you’re still oversimplifying it. There’s so much more to a long run than just a WR blocking (it’s a _little_ bit silly to dismiss a 50 yard run because “the WRs did it,” right?) but I’m comfortable dropping it. It’s such a deviation from the main point that I’m not sure it matters anyway. I still take Maclin over Smith. I still don’t think it’s close, either. I’ll take guy with the extra athleticism and big play capability, who’s younger, with every bit the skill, if not more. I also think Avant is better at the possession receiver role than Smith is, too. So to wrap up; I don’t know if Vick is the _best_ QB in the division, but he’s the most dangerous (in the division and the league). Exact same for DeSean Jackson, whose _skill_ I question (again, Maclin is a more skilled receiver in my eyes). I think McCoy is the best RB in the division. I think the Eagles have the most dangerous skill position players in the league, top to bottom. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [December 17, 2010, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489/107 "2010-12-17T15:10:17Z")
Did he get caught from behind by a _lineman_ on every single one? **Ellis** says he never outran _anyone_, not that he never outran an entire defense. 😉 I agree with your characterization of DeSean Jackson; he’s not a great _receiver_. He’s ten times more valuable than Maclin, though; there are at least forty guys in the league that can offer what Maclin does, and maybe three who offer what Jackson does. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-give-an-honest-assessment-of-your-team/562489.md?page=5)