# NFL HOF Vote: Really, Curtis Martin??? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 5, 2012, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820 "2012-02-05T02:52:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![pancakes3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ba9def/32.png) [@pancakes3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pancakes3)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2012, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/21 "2012-02-05T18:47:47Z")
Eddie George got in last year with a 3.6 y/a. I understand the arguments and agree. he’s not a 1st ballot guy. It’s a shame that the WR’s didn’t get in, but it’s not so outrageous that we should take up arms over it. It’s not like Fred Taylor made it or something. ---
**Author:** ![sitchensis](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sitchensis/32/4892_2.png) [@sitchensis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sitchensis)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2012, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/22 "2012-02-05T18:51:38Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > YMMV, but of Chris Carter’s (more or less) contemporaries, I know I’d take Rice, Moss, Harrison, and Owens before him (in that order); I’d probably take Tim Brown and Henry Ellard; I’d at least have to think twice before putting him ahead of Torry Holt, Andre Reed, and Isaac Bruce. Is the 5th best WR of the past 25 years Hall-worthy? Probably. 7th best? That’s harder. What about someone who’s _arguably_ the 7th best? For comparison, we only have 3 enshrined Cornerbacks from that time period (that’s including Rod Woodson but not Ronnie Lott). We’ll get a fourth with Champ Bailey, and then we have to argue about Aeneas Williams, Ronde Barber, Ty Law, and Charles Woodson – I think it’s a lock that some of those players \*\*won’t \*\*get in, which sets the bar pretty high for Carter, who most people feel has the \*strongest \*case of the three WRs you mention; the others have even tougher problems. > > So, yeah, I don’t know what to do about these Wide Receivers. > > - =\> Some career fumble rates for comparios – Walter Payton: 1 per 50 touches; Thurman Thomas: 1/67; Emmitt: 1/81; Bettis: 1/90; Tomlinson: 1/127. Chris Carter played from 1987-2002 From your examples: Moss, 1998-2010 Owens, 1996-2010 Harrison, 1996-2008 Holt, 1999-2008 Bruce, 1994-2009 Chris Carter was seven seasons into his career before the closest of those even started. His class is Brown and Reed. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2012, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/23 "2012-02-05T21:45:45Z")
1. Well it depends on just what one’s purpose is, but I don’t see much value in slicing it so thin here. What’s holding up Carter (and Brown, and to a lesser extent Reed and Ellard) isn’t that he has weak numbers compared to his very immediate peers, but rather that he represents part of the first wave of this massive explosion in WR stats, and no one’s quite sure what constitutes a Hall of Fame-caliber statistical résumé for WRs who played during this era. That’s why I include Moss et al. in Carter’s peer group: you can’t compare his numbers to receivers who came before him (the game is just too different in this case), and you can’t limit comparisons to receivers whose careers overlap almost exactly (being the best Wide Receiver to come out of the 1986-1987 draft classes does not of itself qualify someone for the Hall of Fame), so you look ahead and draw from a larger, mostly similar group to put Carter and others into a meaningful context. 2. But if you’re advocating for Cris Carter’s ('87) Hall of Fame candidacy, you _ **really don’t want** _ to draw his class so narrowly. This is because it wouldn’t just include Brown ('88) and Reed ('85), as you said: we’d definitely need to include Jerry Rice ('85) and Michael Irvin ('88), which means that Carter was somewhere between the 3rd and 5th best WR to come out of a 4-year span of draft classes, which is not very impressive sounding. > [@pancakes3](#): > > Eddie George got in last year with a 3.6 y/a. Spluh? Eddie George didn’t get in last year, and he ain’t never gonna come close. He’d have to get in line behind (at a minimum) Tiki Barber, Fred Taylor, and Edgerrin James, and I don’t think any of them are making it, either. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2012, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/24 "2012-02-05T21:50:40Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > Spluh? Eddie George didn’t get in last year, and he ain’t never gonna come close. Looks like he was inducted into the College HOF last year, which may explain the confusion. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2012, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/25 "2012-02-05T21:51:15Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > Spluh? Eddie George didn’t get in last year, and he ain’t never gonna come close. He’d have to get in line behind (at a minimum) Tiki Barber, Fred Taylor, and Edgerrin James, and I don’t think any of them are making it, either. Eddie George was inducted into the college football hall of game late last year. Totally separate and unrelated to the pro football hall. I don’t think George has even made it to the semifinal round for election to Canton. ---
**Author:** ![unwashed\_brain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/a9adbd/32.png) [@unwashed\_brain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/unwashed_brain)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2012, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/26 "2012-02-05T22:12:57Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > 1. But if you’re advocating for Cris Carter’s ('87) Hall of Fame candidacy, you _ **really don’t want** _ to draw his class so narrowly. This is because it wouldn’t just include Brown ('88) and Reed ('85), as you said: we’d definitely need to include Jerry Rice ('85) and Michael Irvin ('88), which means that Carter was somewhere between the 3rd and 5th best WR to come out of a 4-year span of draft classes, which is not very impressive sounding. Take a look at Michael Irvin’s numbers. Then take a look at Cris Carter’s. It isn’t really close at all. Carter has 43 more receiving TD’s than Andre Reed. Forty-three. Ten + ten + ten + ten + three. Carter was clearly more productive than Reed or Irvin. ---
**Author:** ![unwashed\_brain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/a9adbd/32.png) [@unwashed\_brain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/unwashed_brain)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2012, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/27 "2012-02-05T22:17:45Z")
The case is closer for Tim Brown, but Carter had 30 more TDs than him. There was a point in time when everyone in the stadium knew the Vikes were going to throw a fade to corner of the end zone to Carter for the score, and they just couldn’t stop him. Touchdowns MATTER. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2012, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/28 "2012-02-05T22:54:27Z")
> [@unwashed\_brain](#): > > Carter was clearly more productive than Reed or Irvin. I wouldn’t say it’s clear at all in the case of Irvin. Carter has 2,000 more yards, but, even lopping off his unproductive first and last seasons, it took him 14 years to get his numbers. Michael Irvin got his numbers in 10 years (again, discounting the last season), plus his first three seasons were spent on awful Cowboys teams and he only put up 1,400 yards combined there. This all adds up to Michael Irvin’s having a \*much \*higher peak than Cris Carter. Personally, I’m more impressed by that than by Carter’s TD advantage, though obviously YMMV. ---
**Author:** ![Laggard](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de053/32.png) [@Laggard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Laggard)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2012, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/29 "2012-02-05T23:31:26Z")
Shit, if Lynn Swan is in the hof then Carter for sure belongs there. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/30 "2012-02-06T00:47:36Z")
During the 70’s, the number of completions per team per game varied between 12 and 14 catches/game. After the rules were liberalized in 1978, this jumped up to around 17, and slowly increased to 20 or so as teams optimized their passing attacks. It would appear that modern day receivers have about a 35-40% boost from the rules changes and the 14% increase from the longer season-so about 50-55%, which is a pretty big deal. But how big an advantage is this, exactly? Charley Taylor was the leading pre-rules change/schedule expansion leader, with 649 catches, followed closely by Don Maynard, Raymond Berry, & Freddie Biletnikoff. Jerry Rice more than doubled that, with 1549. I think halving the totals of the modern-day receivers probably makes for a good comparison, in which case the current top 10 compares very favorably with the pre-1978 top 10. There’s 14 WR’s in the Hall (and 13 “ends”, which are mostly old-timers like Don Hutson, tho there are some guys from the 60’s like Maynard). Only 4 started their careers on or after 1978, which seems absurdly low. The Hall seriously needs to establish what the standards are for WR’s, because there’s a large backlog starting to form while they dither. ---
**Author:** ![davidw](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c4cdca/32.png) [@davidw](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidw)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/31 "2012-02-06T01:10:14Z")
Going back to Curtis Martin, I don’t have a real problem with him getting into the HOF, but I think Jerome Bettis had a very similar career to Martin, and I don’t see the justification for including Martin and excluding Bettis. ---
**Author:** ![unwashed\_brain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/a9adbd/32.png) [@unwashed\_brain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/unwashed_brain)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/32 "2012-02-06T01:56:21Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > I wouldn’t say it’s clear at all in the case of Irvin. Carter has 2,000 more yards, but, even lopping off his unproductive first and last seasons, it took him 14 years to get his numbers. Michael Irvin got his numbers in 10 years (again, discounting the last season), plus his first three seasons were spent on awful Cowboys teams and he only put up 1,400 yards combined there. This all adds up to Michael Irvin’s having a \*much \*higher peak than Cris Carter. Personally, I’m more impressed by that than by Carter’s TD advantage, though obviously YMMV. Carter’s 2:1 advantage in TDs? 130-65, advantage Carter. How can you possibly hand-wave that away? ---
**Author:** ![IAmNotSpartacus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/cc9497/32.png) [@IAmNotSpartacus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IAmNotSpartacus)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/33 "2012-02-06T01:57:01Z")
I am intrigued by the slience on Parcells not making it in. ---
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/34 "2012-02-06T02:34:35Z")
> [@IAmNotSpartacus](#): > > I am intrigued by the slience on Parcells not making it in. I think people don’t think he’s done coaching. (I disagree with that) ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/35 "2012-02-06T03:29:41Z")
=Parcells is going to get in eventually, and I think the induction of coaches and executives is seen as less time-sensitive than players. And this was his first year on the ballot. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/36 "2012-02-06T03:41:19Z")
Yeah, I think Parcells both should and inevitably will go in. I’m not particularly offended that he isn’t a first-ballot. ---
**Author:** ![crypto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b3f665/32.png) [@crypto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crypto)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/37 "2012-02-06T04:08:41Z")
I for one am happy, as two former Pitt Panthers (Martin and Doleman), and a Steeler (Dawson) are in. I knew Doleman’s younger brother, so I had a special rooting interest in him. Martin… I thought when he retired, he was definitely going to the hall. I think one of the stats that he had going for him was that he ran for over 1000 yards each year his first 10 years in the league… I can’t remember how many guys have done that, but the number is small, especially when he retired. He was incredibly durable, was among the leagues all-time rushers (14000+ yds), and had one of his best years right before he retired. The skeptical me also notes that he played in NY for most of his career, which never hurts a players chances, and he also played for Bill Parcells, who has some kind of mystical hold on NYC football and NFL historians in general. I think he deserved it, so no complaint here. I do have to wonder who Carter pissed off, though. That guy should have been in a long time ago. And Jerome Bettis? How did he not make it? Seriously, I know I’m a Steeler fan and a homer, but he had a hall worthy career. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/38 "2012-02-06T04:15:29Z")
Oh Bettis is going in, I’d bet money on it. ---
**Author:** ![unwashed\_brain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/a9adbd/32.png) [@unwashed\_brain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/unwashed_brain)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/39 "2012-02-06T04:20:03Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > This all adds up to Michael Irvin’s having a \*much \*higher peak than Cris Carter. Personally, I’m more impressed by that than by Carter’s TD advantage, though obviously YMMV. Irvin’s 5-year peak ('91-'95) 449 rec, **7093 yds** , 38 TDs Carter’s 5-year peak ('94-'98) **507 rec** , 5870 yds, **59 TDs** I’ll argue Carter’s peak was higher. Touchdowns MATTER. ---
**Author:** ![Aji\_de\_Gallina](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aji_de_gallina/32/260_2.png) [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aji_de_Gallina)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/40 "2012-02-06T05:26:05Z")
The problem with Martin is that at no point in his carreer he was “the guy”. Very good, he was never a “how is he going to make the opposing defense try commit suicide”. He was nver “unstoppable”, there is no wow. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820.md?page=3)