# NFL HOF Vote: Really, Curtis Martin??? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 5, 2012, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820 "2012-02-05T02:52:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/41 "2012-02-06T13:11:06Z")
> [@unwashed\_brain](#): > > Carter’s 2:1 advantage in TDs? 130-65, advantage Carter. How can you possibly hand-wave that away? I’m not saying it’s nothing. It’s a big numerical advantage, and it does represent real value over Irvin in that it tells us that Carter was a significantly more dangerous red zone weapon. Really, it does matter, which I emphasize here because I’m going to spend the rest of this post picking it apart and explaining why I think it’s not enough to make Carter the better player. – Largely the difference in the TD numbers is a function of scheme and opportunity. First of all Carter played in 75 more games than Irvin (that is, 47% more games), so right off the bat we know that twice the TDs doesn’t mean he was twice the red zone threat, since a huge part of the difference is explained right there. Perhaps more importantly, even in Dallas there were only so many red zone opportunities to go around, and if you’re the Cowboys you didn’t \*need \*to throw slants and fades to your WRs when you got into the red zone, because you had Emmitt Freaking Smith running behind a group of Pro Bowlers. So Carter is a bigger red zone threat, yes, and that is important, but the difference is nothing like the 2:1 of the raw numbers. – Furthermore, even to the extent that the TD numbers are the result of real differences between the two, it’s not like each additional score on Carter’s ledger means “Cris Carter created 7 points more than Michael Irvin here.” So many of those TDs are red zone scores, where the offense is pretty likely to score whether or not they choose to throw the ball to Carter, or even if they do throw the ball to Carter and he happens to drop his TD pass instead of catching it. – Carter had 17 fumbles to Irvin’s 7; not a big deal overall, but worth mentioning. – From a Hall of Fame voting perspective, it’s not irrelevant that Irvin was a critical piece of three championship teams while Carter never played in a Super Bowl. – Similarly, we probably want to assign extra weight to playoff performance in general. Irvin was excellent in the postseason: 16 games, 87 catches for 1,315 yards and 8 TDs. Carter’s numbers were fine, but still a lot more ordinary: 14 games, 63 for 870 and 8 TDs (prorated to 16 games this would be 72/994/9). – Peak matters. Being an “accumulator” gets a bad rap sometimes – hey, the guy was durable and helped a lot of different teams, that’s great! – but it’s nonetheless true that 10,000 yards gained over 7 seasons are more valuable than 10,000 yards gained over 10, in addition to the fact that peak value is subjectively more important to us when assessing greatness for things like Hall-worthiness. – Irvin’s peak is just flat-out better. His Top 10 receiving yards seasons go: 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 8th, 8th. Carter’s: 7th, 7th, 7th, 8th, 10th. During the meat of Irvin’s prime, 1991-95, when Carter was in his 5th-9th pro seasons, Irvin was better every single year. Even if you queue up each receiver’s Top 5 seasons overall and compare them side-by-side, line-by-line, Irvin wins each battle. If you were to throw every season from both of them into one big hopper and pick out the five best, Irvin would probably have the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th best seasons. – If you look at advanced stats the numbers skew even more towards Irvin. Going by pfr’s “Approximate Value” stat, Irvin has the best 4 seasons between them (and they’re tied for 5th/6th best season). It’s a particularly huge gap if you look at DVOA/DYAR. So far they only have DVOA numbers going back to 1992 (which cuts off Irvin’s huge '91), but in the numbers they do have Irvin has simply a gigantic advantage. In terms of DYAR, which is a measure of total accumulated value beyond what a replacement-level (waiver-wire type) player would provide, Carter has 1,972 in eleven seasons, while Irvin has 2,537 in \*eight \*seasons. In DVOA, the rate stat on which DYAR is based, Irvin, from '92-'95, ranked 1st, 1st, 2nd, and 1st in the NFL, which represents a spectacular level of sustained dominance (and, again, no numbers are available for his huge 1991 season). Carter, OTOH, never ranked especially well according to DVOA. His best ranks were: 7th, 13th, 21st, 22nd, and then a bunch of seasons in the low-40s to low-50s. Now, I don’t hold that DVOA/DYAR is infallible, or the last word of the debate, or anything of the sort. However, it is a stat that weeds out a lot of noise and biases in the data, and it is a helpful stat in this particular case because of exactly what it measures. The thing is this: DVOA likes possession receivers just fine. At a fundamental level it’s built around measuring progress made towards first downs, so teams and players do a good job of keeping the chains moving and stringing together conversions tend to get upvoted in these numbers more than others. Cris Carter was a possession receiver. If, despite having all those TD catches (which provide plenty of value in this system), his DVOA numbers were pretty ordinary (and sometimes downright mediocre) for almost his whole career, that _suggests_ that Cris Carter was great at getting across the goal line, but not much better than average at getting across the first down line. That’s a pretty big problem for a possession receiver with an elite rep. All of which is not to say that I think Carter doesn’t belong in the Hall. I think he does. But I think it’s fair to make him get in line behind a goo number of other players. He’ll get there eventually. ---
**Author:** ![unwashed\_brain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/a9adbd/32.png) [@unwashed\_brain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/unwashed_brain)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/42 "2012-02-06T13:13:23Z")
Curtis Martin is sort of the Fred McGriff of running backs. Sustained “really good”-ness. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/43 "2012-02-06T17:09:33Z")
> [@unwashed\_brain](#): > > Curtis Martin is sort of the Fred McGriff of running backs. Sustained “really good”-ness. I was thinking the Craig Biggio because he’s got the numbers to qualify for the HOF thanks to longevity. Carter and Brown deserve in before Martin, Kennedy or Doleman. The football writers are apparently even worse than baseball writers when it comes to holding a grudge agains guys who didn’t play nice with the media in their playing days. ---
**Author:** ![unwashed\_brain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/a9adbd/32.png) [@unwashed\_brain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/unwashed_brain)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/44 "2012-02-06T18:58:08Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > (long post elided, see above) Yards per catch is an interesting stat that does indicate an arguable amount of value, and Irvin clearly beats Carter in that dept. The majority of your argument appears to hinge on it. My argument assumes there’s less statistical ambiguity with the value of touchdowns scored, which is why touchdowns per catch will always matter more to me. To expand upon my post above concerning the two players’ 5-year peaks, Carter had 6 less TDs during those 5 years than Irvin had in his _entire career_. During that period, Carter set the NFL record for receptions in a season and matched the total the next year. The turnover argument is legit, but becomes less of a disparity when you look at it as a rate stat. Carter caught the ball more, played more, and fumbled more often. As for the lack of opportunities given Irvin in the red zone, while a true story, you have to speak in terms of what he _could have done if_ given more opportunities. With Carter, there’s nothing hypothetical. ---
**Author:** ![mckall](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/eada6e/32.png) [@mckall](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mckall)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/45 "2012-02-06T19:30:39Z")
> [@mcgato](#): > > Curtis Martin facts about his season rushing totals. > > 1995: 3nd rushing yards > 1996: 9th rushing yards > 1997: 8th rushing yards > 1998: 8th rushing yards > 1999: 2nd rushing yards > 2000: 12th rushing yards > 2001: 2nd rushing yards > 2002: 15th rushing yards > 2003: 12th rushing yards > 2004: 1st rushing yards > 2005: 26th rushing yards > > So on average, about the 8th best running back during his career. And that is hall of fame worthy??? 1995: 1748 1996: 1485 1997: 1456 1998: 1652 1999: 1723 2000: 1712 2001: 1833 2002: 1456 2003: 1570 2004: 1942 2005: 853 9 straight years of over 1400 yards from scrimmage? That’s why he got in above anything else. He’s 11th in All Time All Purpose Yards, but look at who’s ahead of him: Jerry Rice Brian Mitchell Walter Payton Emmitt Smith Tim Brown Marshall Faulk LaDainian Tomlinson Barry Sanders Herschel Walker Marcus Allen Only 4 are not in the HOF, and Tomlinson is still playing. Brown has 3,272 in Punt Return yards, and Mitchell has 14,014 Kickoff Return yards and 4999 in Punt Returns. He only gained 4,303 yards as a running back or receiver. Brown and Mitchell had a major advantage over Martin in opportunities for yards gained which I think needs to be factored into the discussion. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2012, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820/46 "2012-02-06T19:32:57Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Right, the problem with the WRs is that it’s become harder to evaluate the position in absolute terms across eras. Passing yards have increased by so much that the voters apparently can’t decide how those players stack up to later players. It doesn’t help that Reed and Brown and Carter are probably taking votes from each other. The overall issue with WRs does seem to be a matter of the voters not yet having a good handle on what statistical yardstick separates a true HoF WR with one who just managed to accumulate a lot of counting stats. As far as “splitting the vote”, SI’s Peter King, who is a HoF voter, indicated today that this is, indeed, likely the case: > [@](#): > > Re the wideouts: It’s become obvious there’s a logjam between the three eligible receivers – Andre Reed, Cris Carter and Tim Brown. I have supported Carter consistently; I believe he’s the best boundary receiver of all time. (That was a phrase coined by former Niner Randy Cross that I stole because it’s so appropriate. Carter was superb at catching the ball at the very edge of the sideline before his feet hit the white of the sideline.) Reed has some staunch supporters. Carter has his. Brown too. But I think it’s coming down to Carter and Reed. > > In the same number of games with mostly lesser quarterbacks than Reed had, Carter caught 150 more passes for 43 more touchdowns. That carries a lot of weight with me. But I understand the conflict here. Reed was a very good receiver in his own right. I just feel Carter’s better from a historical perspective. Obviously, if 80 percent of voters felt the way I feel, Carter would be in. I was asked in the last 36 hours what’s going to change at receiver. I don’t know. I’m not sure anything will change. Source: [http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/peter\_king/02/06/superbowl46/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp\_t11\_a1](http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/peter_king/02/06/superbowl46/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_t11_a1) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-hof-vote-really-curtis-martin/611820.md?page=2)