# NFL MVP: Vick or Brady (or other)? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [December 21, 2010, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-mvp-vick-or-brady-or-other/564970 "2010-12-21T17:07:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2010, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-mvp-vick-or-brady-or-other/564970/81 "2010-12-28T19:54:10Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Bad example. Kitna has thrown for 237 yards and 1.6 touchdowns per game this season. Well his raw numbers are not bad, and he may actually be an above average backup, but he’s still playing _more or less_ at the level you’d expect from a backup QB. Keep in mind that he’s playing on an offense with really good weapons surrounding him, he’s 22nd in DVOA, and Romo’s numbers were better across the board despite Dallas’ terrible start. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2010, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-mvp-vick-or-brady-or-other/564970/82 "2010-12-28T20:38:00Z")
Not _much_ better. Romo had a 95 passer rating, and Kitna’s got an 89. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2010, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-mvp-vick-or-brady-or-other/564970/83 "2010-12-28T21:03:35Z")
Yeah, but passer rating kinda sucks: it applies arbitrary weights to various stats, and completely fails to consider (for instance) quality of opposition, game situations, and sacks. Ideally one would look at a variety of numbers and consider them in context, but if you need one catch-all rate statistic, DVOA is easily the best option. Besides, a QB’s numbers are largely a function of the quality of his team’s overall passing offense, and whether the actual drop was from from 6th to 16th (passer rating) or 9th to 22nd (DVOA), that’s about the amount we should expect a passing game to degrade when an above average starter is replaced with a not-atypical backup. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2010, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-mvp-vick-or-brady-or-other/564970/84 "2010-12-28T21:43:45Z")
If my team started a backup and he posted a 90 passer rating over 10 games I’d be over the moon, even if my wideouts were Randy Moss, OchoCinco and T.O. and it was 2004. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2010, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-mvp-vick-or-brady-or-other/564970/85 "2010-12-28T22:06:59Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > I think the right way to look at it in this exercise is to disregard the actual backup and instead assume, for the sake of analysis, that the team has a \*typical \*backup. So, the Eagles wouldn’t lose much (IMO) going from Vick to Kolb, but they would lose a ton going from Vick to, say, Jon Kitna. Kolb has an 85.3 QB rating, compared to Vick’s 103.6 (however imperfect that measure is). Vick’s TD to Int ratio is 4 - 1. Kolb’s is 1.5 - 1. In the 4 games he’s played, Kolb has rushed for 56 yards. Vick has rushed for 613 yards and 8 touchdowns in his 11 games (only 10 full games, it’s true). I’m not saying Hoyer is any great shakes, but Kolb is a big downgrade. ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2010, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-mvp-vick-or-brady-or-other/564970/86 "2010-12-29T03:30:16Z")
Well that debate is officially over. ---
**Author:** ![chizzuk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e36b37/32.png) [@chizzuk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chizzuk)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2010, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-mvp-vick-or-brady-or-other/564970/87 "2010-12-29T04:55:17Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Brian Hoyer. It’s all I can do not to confuse him with Steny Hoyer. And the Pats must have some confidence in the guy, since they didn’t have a third QB last year or this year. He also gets mixed up a lot with Jed Hoyer, former well-liked Red Sox assistant GM who is now running the Padres. Poor Brian has no identity. As for the thread question, Brady. I think tonight’s inadequate performance by Vick sealed that. But I’m a Pats fan. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2010, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-mvp-vick-or-brady-or-other/564970/88 "2010-12-29T05:11:26Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > If my team started a backup and he posted a 90 passer rating over 10 games I’d be over the moon, even if my wideouts were Randy Moss, OchoCinco and T.O. and it was 2004. Looks better than it is, in this case. Again: 22nd in DVOA, and in that offense that probably means a QB playing about as badly as all but the worst starters. > [@Stratocaster](#): > > Kolb has an 85.3 QB rating, compared to Vick’s 103.6 (however imperfect that measure is). Vick’s TD to Int ratio is 4 - 1. Kolb’s is 1.5 - 1. In the 4 games he’s played, Kolb has rushed for 56 yards. Vick has rushed for 613 yards and 8 touchdowns in his 11 games (only 10 full games, it’s true). I’m not saying Hoyer is any great shakes, but Kolb is a big downgrade. Sure, but personally I think Kolb over a full season is better than those numbers indicate, and I’m also expecting a big old regression from Vick. But that’s just me; I can’t point to anything concrete that should convince someone else. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2010, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-mvp-vick-or-brady-or-other/564970/89 "2010-12-29T05:33:52Z")
> [@chizzuk](#): > > As for the thread question, Brady. I think tonight’s inadequate performance by Vick sealed that. > > But I’m a Pats fan. I’m an Eagles fan, and I agree with you. Tonight was very weak, in an important game (a possible playoff bye at stake) that we were heavily favored to win. ---
**Author:** ![Jules\_Andre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jules_andre/32/9334_2.png) [@Jules\_Andre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jules_Andre)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2010, 6:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-mvp-vick-or-brady-or-other/564970/90 "2010-12-29T06:57:21Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > Sure, but personally I think Kolb over a full season is better than those numbers indicate, and I’m also expecting a big old regression from Vick. But that’s just me; I can’t point to anything concrete that should convince someone else. His recent play is concrete enough. He’s already regressed. I’ve said it before, unfortunately I have to say it again, Kolb is much better than his numbers indicate. He’s had a total of like six starts in the NFL. People are expecting so much from him that it’s absurdly stupid. His numbers so far are very promising for a young QB with not even half a season under center. Don’t forget he led the thrashing of Atlanta. Here’s a pretty interesting batch of numbers Kolb in 2010: 63.4% comp%, 6/4 TD/INT (1.5/1), 85.3 QB Rating, 13.4 DVOA Sam Bradford: 60.5%, 18/14 TD/INT (1.28/1), 78.0 QB Rating, -8.4 DVOA Bradford gets huge praise almost weekly, Kolb gets shafted. How about some other noteworthy young QBs’ rookie seasons? Matthew Stafford: 54.5% comp, 19/21 TD/INT (.90/1), 67.1 QB Rating, -31.8 DVOA Mark Sanchez: 53.8% comp, 12/20 TD/INT (.6/1), 63 QB Rating, -21.9 DVOA Josh Freeman: 54.5% comp, 10/18 TD/INT (.55/1), 59.8 QB Rating, -26.2 DVOA Joe Flacco: 60% comp, 14/12 TD/INT (1.17/1), 80.3 QB Rating, 12.8 DVOA So Kolb compares favorably and exceeds every single one. And I know it’s a small sample size for Kolb, but that’s kinda the point. His “rookie” numbers are outstanding, he deserves a real shot. And I don’t mean a vanilla playbook where the receivers rarely run routes beyond 15 yards, either. And yet, Reid and everyone else fell for the siren’s call of Michael Vick (admittedly for good reason) and Kolb will likely be traded for pennies on the dollar. Here’s another interesting comparison. Again, Kolb in 2010: 63.4% completion, 6/4 TD/INT (1.5/1), 85.3 QB Rating, 13.4 DVOA 61.1 comp%, 16/11 TD/INT (1.45/1), 87.7 QB Rating, 16.7 DVOA That’s Matt Ryan’s rookie season, btw. Newly elected All-Pro Matt Ryan. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [December 29, 2010, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-mvp-vick-or-brady-or-other/564970/91 "2010-12-29T14:31:31Z")
Yesterday I heard another reason that you can’t discount Brady by pointing at the 11-5 performance by Cassel. In addition to the reason I’ve been using – Cassel is actually good – that year the Patriots had an incredibly easy schedule, playing both of the putrid Western divisions. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-mvp-vick-or-brady-or-other/564970.md?page=4)