# NFL offseason discussion (up to but not including draft) **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 22, 2008, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702 "2008-02-22T07:02:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2008, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/321 "2008-03-10T18:03:32Z")
[QUOTE=Least Original User Name Ever] Hester’s hands are apparently only equipped to catch a punt or a kickoff. A football fired to him in any other format bonks off his hands like he had flippers. [/QUOTE] Actually, he doesn’t catch punts and kickoffs that well either. Half of his big returns followed a muff or a ball played off a hop. Though, in fairness he didn’t drop very many of the WR screens they threw to him, many of which were caught under immediate pressure. He did however drop a big catch or two thrown deep downfield, so maybe he just has trouble going over the shoulder. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2008, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/322 "2008-03-10T18:09:45Z")
[QUOTE=Least Original User Name Ever] Hester’s hands are apparently only equipped to catch a punt or a kickoff. A football fired to him in any other format bonks off his hands like he had flippers. [/QUOTE] Catching a pass while looking over your shoulder is an awful lot harder than catching one you’re facing, you know. **Omni** , I don’t know what you think Johnson is going to do for you that Booker or Lloyd won’t, but even playing three seasons in the high-powered Cards pass offense he’s never caught more than 49 passes, and never gone for more than 740 yards. He’s been given plenty of opportunity; remember, they picked him in the '03 draft _ahead_ of Boldin, and he was the other starter until they got Fitzgerald. Also, he’s started 39 games, but only scored 9 touchdowns. He’s a decent slot receiver. I don’t see him as even a #2 for any team that doesn’t feature a premiere tight end, though. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2008, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/323 "2008-03-10T18:34:15Z")
[QUOTE=Really Not All That Bright] **Omni** , I don’t know what you think Johnson is going to do for you that Booker or Lloyd won’t, but even playing three seasons in the high-powered Cards pass offense he’s never caught more than 49 passes, and never gone for more than 740 yards. He’s been given plenty of opportunity; remember, they picked him in the '03 draft _ahead_ of Boldin, and he was the other starter until they got Fitzgerald. Also, he’s started 39 games, but only scored 9 touchdowns. [/quote] Yeah, I’m fully away how pathetic it is that I think Johnson is a solution. Of course in this year’s FA market he’s simply the best available by my estimation. I do think he’d be the best guy on the Bears roster if they added them and that’s the only reason I peg him as our #1, not that I expect him to be a monster or anything. I’m willing to drink the koolaid that he still _could_ breakout on a different team and that he still has more potential than anyone else up for discussion. > [@](#): > > He’s a decent slot receiver. I don’t see him as even a #2 for any team that doesn’t feature a premiere tight end, though. Olsen should be just that this year, so he might fit. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2008, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/324 "2008-03-10T18:39:36Z")
[QUOTE=Omniscient] Olsen should be just that this year, so he might fit. [/QUOTE] Well, Olsen will certainly see a lot of passes thrown his way this year given the weakness of the WR corps. I don’t see him as a top-tier guy, though; more of a Marcus Pollard than Antonio Gates. If I were you, I’d continue to pin my hopes on Lloyd. Somewhere in that rather impressive physical specimen is a #1 wide receiver waiting to get out. I genuinely believe he has as much raw talent as any WR in the league; time will tell if he ever actually produces like he ought to. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2008, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/325 "2008-03-10T18:49:19Z")
[QUOTE=Really Not All That Bright] Well, Olsen will certainly see a lot of passes thrown his way this year given the weakness of the WR corps. I don’t see him as a top-tier guy, though; more of a Marcus Pollard than Antonio Gates. [/quote] Pollard isn’t a bad model and he’d be better than what the Bears have had for about 40 years at TE, but I think Olsen is quite a bit more athletic and agile a pass catcher than Pollard. He’s a lot longer and faster with a little luck will be more similar to Dallas Clark or Todd Heap. > [@](#): > > If I were you, I’d continue to pin my hopes on Lloyd. Somewhere in that rather impressive physical specimen is a #1 wide receiver waiting to get out. I genuinely believe he has as much raw talent as any WR in the league; time will tell if he ever actually produces like he ought to. I basically agree with you, but consider my desire for Johnson as an attempt to diversify to mitigate risk. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2008, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/326 "2008-03-10T19:12:14Z")
You know, if you got a mad scientist to combine Lloyd, Bradley, Hester, Booker, and either Johnson or Hackett, you might actually have a single #2 WR, who might, on a good day, play as a #1. Until then, however… ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2008, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/327 "2008-03-10T19:18:09Z")
[QUOTE=Hamlet] You know, if you got a mad scientist to combine Lloyd, Bradley, Hester, Booker, and either Johnson or Hackett, you might actually have a single #2 WR, who might, on a good day, play as a #1. Until then, however… [/QUOTE] Eat it, cheesehead. ---
**Author:** ![kidchameleon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/898d66/32.png) [@kidchameleon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kidchameleon)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2008, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/328 "2008-03-10T20:14:04Z")
[QUOTE=Omniscient] Pollard isn’t a bad model and he’d be better than what the Bears have had for about 40 years at TE, but I think Olsen is quite a bit more athletic and agile a pass catcher than Pollard. He’s a lot longer and faster with a little luck will be more similar to Dallas Clark or Todd Heap. [/QUOTE] Without the qualtiy QBing that Heap has. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2008, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/329 "2008-03-11T11:18:39Z")
The AFC North this year has to play both the AFC South and NFC East. Easy schedules for everyone! Pittsburgh has an especially brutal schedule because they play the #1 ranked team from the AFC East and West, so in addition to arguably the best two divisions in football, they have to play New England and San Diego. The Browns play Buffalo and Denver. Determining the ease or difficulty of a schedule is somewhat guesswork - every year teams surprise by either being better or worse than projected - but the AFC North’s schedule seems pretty brutal so far. Fortunately everyone gets 14 of the same games, and you only need to win your division… it seems unlikely that any team from the AFC North is going to be a wildcard team with that schedule. I’m predicting the Browns to win the division this year. I’m a homer, but not a totally crazy one - I haven’t predicted the Browns to win the division since 2004 (oops). The Steelers were fading towards the end of the year, lost Faneca, and barely squeaked by a home win against the Browns in the second half of the season (mostly due to two horrible calls). They have a schedule that’s 2 games harder, and they so far haven’t addressed their weaknesses like the Browns have. I’m not considering the other teams in serious running for the division title. With this schedule, 10-6 and possibly 9-7 probably wins the division. Edit: Noticed the game against Indy is a home game. I hope it’s in December, there’s a blizzard, and Peyton gets frostbite on his asshole. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2008, 11:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/330 "2008-03-11T11:32:47Z")
Homer. The Steelers are winning the AFC North. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2008, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/331 "2008-03-11T13:08:46Z")
[QUOTE=Least Original User Name Ever] Homer. The Steelers are winning the AFC North. [/QUOTE] What makes you so confident? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2008, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/332 "2008-03-11T13:30:22Z")
Carolina wins the NFC South; the Bucs have never had two good seasons in a row under Gruden, and with our starting tailback possibly out for most of the season, and everyone else on offense getting another year older, I see no reason we’ll start now. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2008, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/333 "2008-03-11T13:32:45Z")
[QUOTE=Really Not All That Bright] Carolina wins the NFC South; the Bucs have never had two good seasons in a row under Gruden, and with our starting tailback possibly out for most of the season, and everyone else on offense getting another year older, I see no reason we’ll start now. [/QUOTE] What’s wrong with Carnell? Also, Warrick Dunn doesn’t suck. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2008, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/334 "2008-03-11T13:42:14Z")
[QUOTE=SenorBeef] What makes you so confident? [/QUOTE] Much more complete team, in my opinion. I’m not enamored by Ben Roethlisbergergergergerger, but I’d take him before Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, or some genetic pairing of the two. The Steelers have better defense and a better offense as far as I’m concerned. I don’t see a repeat of 9-7 for the Browns. It’ll be a lot closer to 7-9 and I think it’ll be due to injuries. I’ve got nothing to base that on, just a feeling. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2008, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/335 "2008-03-11T13:43:56Z")
[QUOTE=Ellis Dee] What’s wrong with Carnell? Also, Warrick Dunn doesn’t suck. [/QUOTE] Carnell runs like a big back and when he’s healthy, he’s solid, but he’s got a question mark on him. If he can stay complete, I don’t mind the Bucs at all. I think they’ll win that division. Carolina has questions at quarterback and I don’t know how Deangelo Williams will respond to a full workload. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2008, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/336 "2008-03-11T13:54:06Z")
[QUOTE=Ellis Dee] What’s wrong with Carnell? Also, Warrick Dunn doesn’t suck. [/QUOTE] His injury was reported as a torn patellar tendon, but there’s also some ligament damage, and his recovery by all accounts is not going smoothly. There’s an outside chance that he’ll never play again _knocks wood_, but even if he does, running backs coming back from major knee surgery pretty much invariably take a year or so to get back to full strength. I’m sad; I’ve followed his career since he was a freshman at Auburn, and I actually predicted we’d draft him two seasons before we did - and I was thrilled to bits. After his rookie season it looked like he’d be a superstar. Instead, he’ll probably be stuck in RBBC systems for the rest of his career. Dunn does not suck, and I’m glad he’s come home, but I’m not sure what he’s got left in the tank. Also, we’ve been almost exclusively a RBBC team since Gruden showed up, except during Cadillac’s rookie year, and the results have not been pretty at all, despite O-line personnel who were generally much better run-blockers than pass-blockers. As soon as Earnest Graham became the feature back by default last season, though, we suddenly had an extremely effective ground game. Graham is a much tougher runner than Cadillac, even though he isn’t nearly as quick, and he wears down defenses much more. I was hoping they’d just hand Graham the ball 25 times a game again this year, and work Michael Bennett and then Cadillac in as change-of-pace runners. With Dunn on the roster, though, I feel like Gruden will feel like he _has_ to give him significant carries- say, 30%. That would be fine if it meant we were running the ball that many more times, but run-first just isn’t an option for Gruden. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2008, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/337 "2008-03-11T14:15:27Z")
[QUOTE=Least Original User Name Ever] Much more complete team, in my opinion. I’m not enamored by Ben Roethlisbergergergergerger, but I’d take him before Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, or some genetic pairing of the two. The Steelers have better defense and a better offense as far as I’m concerned. I don’t see a repeat of 9-7 for the Browns. It’ll be a lot closer to 7-9 and I think it’ll be due to injuries. I’ve got nothing to base that on, just a feeling. [/QUOTE] The Browns finished 10-6, not 9-7. Same record as the Steelers. And since the Steelers beat them twice, that means they did significantly better against the rest of the NFL. The first time the Steelers beat the Browns was a Charlie Frye induced slaughter, and the second time was bullshit - Ben had several scrambles on which there was blatant holding that allowed the play to happen, and then on the last return of the game, there was totally phantom holding called on the Browns. They should’ve started IIRC around the Pit 35 or so, but instead started around their own 30 with about a minute left and no timeouts. Considering the game came down to a 52 yard field goal anyway, that penalty was the game, and it was complete BS. The biggest weakness on the Browns was the LDE position - due to injuries and ineffectiveness of the backups, a would-be starting NT had to play out of position there, degrading both positions. The LDE spot is going to be filled by Corey Williams who I’m high on, and Shaun Rogers, who I’m not so high on but has potential, will start at NT - a massive revamping of the D-line with young talent. The back 7 are young but gaining experience, and the hopefully dramatic improvement to the D-line will take the unit from pretty bad to decent. The Browns were pretty close to 11+ wins too with a horrible defense. If they can just improve to mediocre, the team can go somewhere. They lost to the raiders (sad, I know) after a game-winning field goal was negated by a last second timeout (the retry was blocked), despite performing horribly early they were in the second Cinci game until the final drive until they received a 50 yard offensive pass interference penality that was pretty much bullshit, the Arizona game came out to an arguable forceout (which, as discussed on other threads, I think the result of the game was legitimate, but it highlights that the game came down to about 1 or 2 feet), and I already covered the second Pittsburgh game. The Cleveland offense didn’t lose anyone, and gained Stallworth (who isn’t great, but JJ isn’t an ideal #2, but is a nice #3, plus Stallworth and Winslow drawing coverage from each other will be synergistic). The Steelers offense lost one of their best players in Faneca. The Browns defense had both its biggest weakness addressed (LDE) and the most important position on the field addressed (NT). So, this year they already had an equal record to the Steelers, could’ve easily won the North if a few calls went the other way, and have already improved their weaknesses in the offseason. Whereas the Steelers clearly trailed off towards the end of the year. The Steelers also have to contend with a schedule that includes the Pats and Chargers where the Browns play Buffalo and Denver. This could easily go 0-2 vs 2-0. The Browns may finish 10-6 again, which would be pretty good against a tough schedule. That’s probably going to be the winning record in the AFC North. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2008, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/338 "2008-03-11T14:20:09Z")
[QUOTE=SenorBeef] The Browns finished 10-6, not 9-7. Same record as the Steelers. And since the Steelers beat them twice, that means they did significantly better against the rest of the NFL. The first time the Steelers beat the Browns was a Charlie Frye induced slaughter, and the second time was bullshit - Ben had several scrambles on which there was blatant holding that allowed the play to happen, and then on the last return of the game, there was totally phantom holding called on the Browns. They should’ve started IIRC around the Pit 35 or so, but instead started around their own 30 with about a minute left and no timeouts. Considering the game came down to a 52 yard field goal anyway, that penalty was the game, and it was complete BS. The biggest weakness on the Browns was the LDE position - due to injuries and ineffectiveness of the backups, a would-be starting NT had to play out of position there, degrading both positions. The LDE spot is going to be filled by Corey Williams who I’m high on, and Shaun Rogers, who I’m not so high on but has potential, will start at NT - a massive revamping of the D-line with young talent. The back 7 are young but gaining experience, and the hopefully dramatic improvement to the D-line will take the unit from pretty bad to decent. The Browns were pretty close to 11+ wins too with a horrible defense. If they can just improve to mediocre, the team can go somewhere. They lost to the raiders (sad, I know) after a game-winning field goal was negated by a last second timeout (the retry was blocked), despite performing horribly early they were in the second Cinci game until the final drive until they received a 50 yard offensive pass interference penality that was pretty much bullshit, the Arizona game came out to an arguable forceout (which, as discussed on other threads, I think the result of the game was legitimate, but it highlights that the game came down to about 1 or 2 feet), and I already covered the second Pittsburgh game. The Cleveland offense didn’t lose anyone, and gained Stallworth (who isn’t great, but JJ isn’t an ideal #2, but is a nice #3, plus Stallworth and Winslow drawing coverage from each other will be synergistic). The Steelers offense lost one of their best players in Faneca. The Browns defense had both its biggest weakness addressed (LDE) and the most important position on the field addressed (NT). So, this year they already had an equal record to the Steelers, could’ve easily won the North if a few calls went the other way, and have already improved their weaknesses in the offseason. Whereas the Steelers clearly trailed off towards the end of the year. The Steelers also have to contend with a schedule that includes the Pats and Chargers where the Browns play Buffalo and Denver. This could easily go 0-2 vs 2-0. The Browns may finish 10-6 again, which would be pretty good against a tough schedule. That’s probably going to be the winning record in the AFC North. [/QUOTE] Like I said. Closer to 7-9. I’ll hedge my bet though and say .500 +/- a game. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2008, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/339 "2008-03-11T14:24:21Z")
Well, that wasn’t an explanation. What do you think the Steelers’ record will be? ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2008, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702/340 "2008-03-11T15:02:05Z")
[QUOTE=SenorBeef] Well, that wasn’t an explanation. What do you think the Steelers’ record will be? [/QUOTE] Better. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-discussion-up-to-but-not-including-draft/438702.md?page=18)