# NFL Offseason Staff changes **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [December 29, 2008, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072 "2008-12-29T16:13:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/81 "2008-12-31T01:44:33Z")
> [@furt](#): > > So six head coach vacancies. Seems like a better than 50-50 chance that Herm Edwards and Marvin Lewis will get canned. Wade Phillips could be on thin ice as is Jack Del Rio. I expect at least a couple more announcements before the weekend. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/82 "2008-12-31T02:12:01Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Seems like a better than 50-50 chance that Herm Edwards and Marvin Lewis will get canned. Wade Phillips could be on thin ice as is Jack Del Rio. I expect at least a couple more announcements before the weekend. I don’t think there’s any way Marvin gets fired, the way Mike Brown runs his organization. NO WAY. Marvin would resign first. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/83 "2008-12-31T03:01:21Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > I don’t think there’s any way Marvin gets fired, the way Mike Brown runs his organization. NO WAY. Marvin would resign first. Yeah, they are too cheap to eat that contract, but he really deserves to be gone. Still, perhaps with everyone else doing it the Bengals will do it out of peer pressure. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/84 "2008-12-31T04:52:27Z")
> [@TheBoltEater](#): > > I don’t care if you love or hate Marty, but San Diego absolutely did NOT fuck him over. Marty didn’t get fired for failing in the playoffs, he got fired for forcing Dean Spanos into deciding a power play between Marty and A.J. Smith. Marty knew exactly what he was doing, and got fired when Dean sided with A.J. > > As a lifelong Charger fan, I was thrilled when we hired Marty, I’m totally thankful to him for turning our once moribund franchise around, and I was completely in favor of both his firing and Norv’s hiring when it happened. He’s the best coach in the league at taking a horrible team to the playoffs, and he’s the worst coach in the league at winning in the playoffs once he gets a team there. Yeah. So you exchanged him with a guy who, two years later, almost didn’t make the playoffs at all, and shouldn’t have, had the Broncos played just a bit better in week 16. Smart move. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/85 "2008-12-31T05:34:06Z")
> [@furt](#): > > So six head coach vacancies. As I see it, there’s two really great opportunities in Denver and Cleveland. Denver because of a lot of talent and a very patient owner; Cleveland a bit less so on both scores, but still a pretty decent situation to step into. Cleveland has a very patient owner. Giving Crennel 4 years when it was clear he had no clue from day 1 is patient to a fault. I also think there’s probably more talent on the Cleveland team - they’re closer to being an NFL quality defense by far - they just need to shed the retarded scheme and get a coach they want to play for. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/86 "2008-12-31T05:41:07Z")
Cleveland has an indifferent owner, which in general is preferable to having a meddlesome owner like Jerry Jones or Al Davis (even Arthur Blank walking around the sidelines rubs me the wrong way). He’s more interested in his English Premier League team than he is the Browns. I get the impression that this whole process of finding new personnel guys is a big pain in the ass for him. ---
**Author:** ![Invisible\_Chimp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/f05b48/32.png) [@Invisible\_Chimp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Invisible_Chimp)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 6:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/87 "2008-12-31T06:19:48Z")
Detroit replaces the guy who destroyed the team from a guy in-house. If they want to get better, they need to look without. That franchise is diseased. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/88 "2008-12-31T06:23:05Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Seems like a better than 50-50 chance that Herm Edwards and Marvin Lewis will get canned. Wade Phillips could be on thin ice as is Jack Del Rio. I expect at least a couple more announcements before the weekend. Mike Shanahan, for instance? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/89 "2008-12-31T14:37:45Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > Mike Shanahan, for instance? Who saw _that_ coming? I never thought Shanahan was a particularly good coach but I didn’t think he’d ever be fired. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/90 "2008-12-31T15:15:55Z")
> [@borschevsky](#): > > The bit about the chances hinging on the 4th down play are accounted for in the math in the 37% or 50% added to the formula. The two drives being compared at 20% vs 10% are after successfully completing 4th & 2, or after punting and stopping the Seahawks defensively. No, that wasn’t how he crafted his formula. He factored in the chance to stop them as a separate variable. Then he said, in that case, the Jets get the ball back on the 20, and now they’d have a 10% chance to score. Half the chance compared to the last time they had the ball on the 20. That’s doubling the chances because of having timeouts. From a guy whose cite completely ignores timeouts, which therefore casts doubt over his entire analysis. He also seems to have based the chance on stopping them based on normal drives. I have pointed out that in this situation, it’s _not_ a normal drive at all. You pretty much have to run it twice into 8 or 9 men in the box because of the enormous pressure to keep the clock moving. This has to drastically reduce the chances of getting a first down. This also calls his analysis into question. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/91 "2008-12-31T15:27:10Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > \*\*Both \*\*drives start with an all-or-nothing play. By punting, you merely postpone it until the other team’s 3rd down. Essentially, you’re hoping that your defense’s chance of succeeding on that play is greater than your offense’s chance to a great enough extent to justify the sacrifice of your timeouts and a not-meaningless amount of time remaining. No they don’t After the punt, the next drive starts with a 1st and 10. If you’re saying you factored the chances to make a stop into the 10% chance to get a TD, then you double-counted that when you added in a variable for the chance to make a stop. I don’t think that’s what you did at all. Instead, I think this post was a retcon. It doesn’t reflect the original formula you posted. > [@](#): > > I’m not entirely sure it’s worthwhile for us to have these specific kinds of football discussions, since you’re not amenable to “let’s find a weighted average of the range of possibilities” arguments, and I’m not amenable to “if you watch football you know this to be true” arguments. I have no problem with using aggregate statistics in football to predict the odds of success. My appeal to “don’t you watch games” wasn’t about that. I was saying that your aggregates include data from completely unrelated situations, making them invalid. Recognizing that the situations are completely unrelated is something I would expect to be obvious when watching games. In a nutshell, which is more likely: 1. Convert a first down early in the second quarter. 2. Convert a first down with 2:21 left in the game, winning by no more than 7, your opponent has all their timeouts. I say the second situation is far less likely to yield a first down. Which is why I take issue with your numbers, which seem to be based on the chances to get a generic first down without regard for the situation. EDIT: Many have also expressed percentages of drives that yield a TD. Again I say you’re mixing your pools. Getting a TD late in the game tends to be easier because defenses tend to employ prevent or prevent-like defenses to avoid getting burnt by a big play. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/92 "2008-12-31T19:54:13Z")
> [@Ellis Dee](#): > > He also seems to have based the chance on stopping them based on normal drives. No. I said the Jets will force a 3 and out two thirds of the time – two thirds of normal drives do not end after three plays. What percentage of the time do you think the Jets force a 3 and out? > [@](#): > > > [@](#): > > > > Both drives start with an all-or-nothing play. By punting, you merely postpone it until the other team’s 3rd down. Essentially, you’re hoping that your defense’s chance of succeeding on that play is greater than your offense’s chance to a great enough extent to justify the sacrifice of your timeouts and a not-meaningless amount of time remaining. > > No they don’t After the punt, the next drive starts with a 1st and 10. If you’re saying you factored the chances to make a stop into the 10% chance to get a TD, then you double-counted that when you added in a variable for the chance to make a stop. I don’t think that’s what you did at all. Instead, I think this post was a retcon. It doesn’t reflect the original formula you posted. First of all, the post wasn’t about the formula, it was about your assertion that only one of the drives started with a do or die play. Second, of course this fact is reflected in the formula. The formulas are comparing two separate drives: the one that starts after forcing Seattle to punt, and the one starts \*after \*converting on 4th & 2. The chances of never getting to begin either drive are factored in: in the first formula, the “.5” represents the 50% chance of converting (again, it’s actually greater). In the second formula, the “.65” represents the 65% chance of forcing a 3 and out. > [@](#): > > I have no problem with using aggregate statistics in football to predict the odds of success. I think you sort of do. Any time I make this kind of argument, your response is always hostile, usually bereft of a competing statistical analysis, and sometimes indicative of a less than complete understanding of what I’m saying (as with the formulas above). This isn’t the first you’ve told me that if I’d only watch the game better I’d know my statistics are wrong and/or don’t apply, and, like I said, I’m not really amenable to that argument. A couple of times I’ve tried to meet you half way on these only to be told that I’m as wrong as ever. So, I don’t know that either of us is able to resist, but it’s probably unproductive for us to have these specific kinds of football discussions. I don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/93 "2008-12-31T20:01:39Z")
Can we take the argument over punting to its own thread? ---
**Author:** ![TheBoltEater](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/779978/32.png) [@TheBoltEater](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheBoltEater)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/94 "2008-12-31T20:56:15Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > Yeah. So you exchanged him with a guy who, two years later, almost didn’t make the playoffs at all, and shouldn’t have, had the Broncos played just a bit better in week 16. Smart move. :rolleyes: Norv’s already won 2 more playoff games with the Bolts than Marty did. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [December 31, 2008, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/95 "2008-12-31T23:40:57Z")
The Lions have to pursue Martz or Mangini since the both have last names starting with M. That is important in our organization. Wonder what Moeller is up to? ---
**Author:** ![Enginerd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/bcef8e/32.png) [@Enginerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enginerd)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2009, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/96 "2009-01-01T00:15:03Z")
Wasn’t Martz the Lions OC before? ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2009, 9:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/97 "2009-01-01T09:24:08Z")
Just letting you guys in the NFL threads know I’m trying to run a contest to predict the results of the playoffs and everyone is welcome to submit an entry. [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=10637459](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=10637459) ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2009, 11:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/98 "2009-01-01T11:57:02Z")
> [@garygnu](#): > > Can we take the argument over punting to its own thread? Yes please. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2009, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/99 "2009-01-02T01:54:52Z")
> [@Enginerd](#): > > Wasn’t Martz the Lions OC before? Yep. he was fired. He gets broomed every place he goes. How can the Lions overlook a guy with those credentials? Plus his last name starts with M. He ends up in power wars with the head coaches. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2009, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072/100 "2009-01-02T03:30:45Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Yep. he was fired. He gets broomed every place he goes. How can the Lions overlook a guy with those credentials? Plus his last name starts with M. > He ends up in power wars with the head coaches. Well, he was the head coach in St. Louis before coming to Detroit. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-offseason-staff-changes/479072.md?page=6)