# NFL Picks - Week 15 **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [December 14, 2002, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-picks-week-15/142679 "2002-12-14T03:00:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2002, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-picks-week-15/142679/1 "2002-12-14T03:00:20Z")
Well, I’m going to cling to this dying tradition until its last breath, like it or not. Here’s my primer, as usual. Sadly here it is Friday night again, and I won’t be able to get my run down finished until probably tomorrow evening. One bright spot I suppose is that my friend won the pick 5 pool last week, at least I can take solace inthe fact that one of us at least managed to get some of our money back out. Sunday Games **Baltimore @ Houston** 12:00pm (Baltimore by 3) **Carolina @ Pittsburgh** 12:00pm (Pittsburgh by 8½) **Indianapolis @ Cleveland** 12:00pm (Indianapolis by 2½) **Jacksonville @ Cincinnati** 12:00pm (Jacksonville by 3) **Minnesota @ New Orleans** 12:00pm (New Orleans by 7) **N.Y. Jets @ Chicago** 12:00pm (N.Y. Jets by 6½) **Oakland @ Miami** 12:00pm (Miami by 1½) **San Diego @ Buffalo** 12:00pm (Buffalo by 3) **Seattle @ Atlanta** 12:00pm (Atlanta by 10) **Tampa Bay @ Detroit** 12:00pm (Tampa Bay by 8½) **Washington @ Philadelphia** 12:00pm (Philadelphia by 7½) **Kansas City @ Denver** 3:05pm (Denver by 3½) **Dallas @ N.Y. Giants** 3:15pm (N.Y. Giants by 5) **Green Bay @ San Francisco** 3:15pm (San Francisco by 3) **Arizona @ St. Louis** 7:30pm (St. Louis by 11) Monday Night Football **New England @ Tennessee** 8:00pm (Tennessee by 2) ---
**Author:** ![CrazyDiamond](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d26b3c/32.png) [@CrazyDiamond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CrazyDiamond)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2002, 6:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-picks-week-15/142679/2 "2002-12-14T06:46:44Z")
Baltimore @ Houston 12:00pm (Baltimore by 7) Carolina @ Pittsburgh 12:00pm (Pittsburgh by 10) Indianapolis @ Cleveland 12:00pm (Cleveland by 3) Jacksonville @ Cincinnati 12:00pm (Jacksonville by 3) Minnesota @ New Orleans 12:00pm (New Orleans by 14) N.Y. Jets @ Chicago 12:00pm (N.Y. Jets by 10) Oakland @ Miami 12:00pm (Miami by 3) San Diego @ Buffalo 12:00pm (Buffalo by 7) Seattle @ Atlanta 12:00pm (Atlanta by 10) Tampa Bay @ Detroit 12:00pm (Tampa Bay by 14) Washington @ Philadelphia 12:00pm (Philadelphia by 3) Kansas City @ Denver 3:05pm (Kansas City by 10) Dallas @ N.Y. Giants 3:15pm (N.Y. Giants by 7) Green Bay @ San Francisco 3:15pm (San Francisco by 10) Arizona @ St. Louis 7:30pm (Arizona by 2) ---
**Author:** ![CrazyDiamond](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d26b3c/32.png) [@CrazyDiamond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CrazyDiamond)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2002, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-picks-week-15/142679/3 "2002-12-14T06:49:51Z")
…and on MNF - Tennessee by 4 ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2002, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-picks-week-15/142679/4 "2002-12-14T07:18:11Z")
**Omni** , I still _love_ you even though I didn’t get a chance to get into last week’s thread. Will jump in and make some predictions tomorrow, I promise, but now it’s late, I’ve been knocking back Armagnac, and I need to sleep. (And I am flirting with the idea of driving up to Detroit for the Bucs v Lions game, if the weather is halfways decent… how irresponsible/impulsive is that?) ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2002, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-picks-week-15/142679/5 "2002-12-14T15:42:43Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Stuffy \* > It’s that ime again and this is a special week. There’s some great matchups including this [one](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?threadid=150184), so let’s get started. Favorite in caps. > > **BALTIMORE @ Houston 3 45** > > This should be an easy game for the Ravens. The lins a little low so ll go with the Ravens to beat it. The Texans wee impressive last week against the Steelers, but m not ready to jump on this bandwagon yet. Ravens to win and cover. > > **INDY @ Cleveland 240** > > Manning needs to look good in this game to enhance his chances during the off-season, personally m betting he ends up in Chicago. The Browns have actually started looking like they know what a football is, but is too little too late. Still, the games in Cleveland, and Manning always disappoints me in must win games. So m going to take the Browns to upset, and maybe also stay alive in the playoff hunt. > > **Minnesota @ NEW ORLEANS 7 49** > > The Saints need the win more than the Vikings, and shouldt have any trouble beating them. Saints win and cover. > > **Oakland @ MIAMI 1 43** > > This is a great match-up and m going to miss it; as ll be in route to the Niners game. But hers what I expect to here on the radioFielder hands off to Ricky William. The Raiders run defense can be a bit shaky so I expect Miami to take full advantage of it, with an occasional toss by Fielder to keep the Raiders from stacking the box. Meanwhile, I expect Gannon to throw for another three hundred plus yard game. I half-heartedly want to pick he Raiders for this contest, but m going with he Dolphins to win and cover. > > **Seattle @ ATLANTA 9 45** > > I expect Vick will accomplish more with his arms than his legs this time. The Seahawks are pretty good at containing mobile cornerbacks, but thas unimportant since the Seattle secondary is pretty weak. The spread is a little on the high side for any team, but if anyons going to pull it off this year ill be the Falcons. Falcons to win and cover. > > **Washington @ PHILLY 737** > > It couldt be fun being a Redskins fan, and this week wot be any different. Philly wins but I think the Skins will cover. > > **Carolina @ PITTSBURGH 8 39 1/2** > > This is pretty interesting. The Steelers got embarrassed last week, and the Panthers played like champions. Just goes to show you the accuracy of the phraseany given Sunda. The Panthers need to win this game, is the weakest opponent remain on their schedule. There banged up but I still expect them to pull this one out. Steelers get the W, Carolina covers. > > **JAX @ Cincinatti 3 42** > > JAX to win and cover. > > **NY JETS @ Chicago 636** > > Jets to win and cover. > > **San Diego @ BUFFALO 3 41** > > The Chargers cat catch a break lately. A game they really need to win and they get to go to Buffalo. d take the Chargers if they were at home, but ll give it to the home team. Bills win and cover. > > \*\*TAMPA BAY @ Detroit 837 \*\* > > Well at least we wot have to worry about overtime in this game. Bucs win and cover. > > **KC @ DENVER 3 46** > > The Chiefs are red-hot but there playing a Denver team that needs a win, in Denver. I dot think thill be a cakewalk for the Broncos though. I expect ill come down to the wire with the Broncos pulling off some last second heroics, as they tend to do come crunch time. Broncos win, KC covers. > > **Dallas @ NYG 5 35** > > The Cowboys nearly played spoilers last week, and I expect another inspired game from Dallas. The Giants havet impressed me all season, and I dot expect them to start this game. Dallas in a major upset. > > **Green Bay @ SAN FRANCISCO 3 45** > > I had to do a double take when I saw that the Niners were favored in this game. The Niners need this game, and ll be [there](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?threadid=150184) rooting them on. There will be much yelling and screaming and hysterics in the stands, and then thers the crowd. The Niners are expecting to have Hearst and Barlow back in the line-up and I expect ill be important if the rain keeps up which is expected to do. Niners to win; the Pack to cover; Stuffy to suffer from a sore throat. > > **Arizona @ ST. LOUIS 11 43 1 /2** > > Boy I bet the crew at ESPN is ticked. Rams to win and cover. > > **New England @ TENN 2 43** > > Let me think on this one. ll get back to you. > BTW, anybody got any ideas for a sign? > > GO NINERS ---
**Author:** ![Gazoo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ce73a5/32.png) [@Gazoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gazoo)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2002, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-picks-week-15/142679/6 "2002-12-14T17:41:29Z")
Sunday Games **Baltimore @ Houston** 12:00pm (Baltimore by 3) When you can win a game with less than 50 total yards on offense, your defense is something special. Not sure who wins this one, but the under could be a good bet. I’ll call it BAL 12 - HOU 10. **Carolina @ Pittsburgh** 12:00pm (Pittsburgh by 8½) Carolina was impressive last week with 52 points, but c’mon, it was our old favorites the Bungles. Maddox should be able to get the rust off and get back his magic from earlier in the season. Still, the Panthies always keep 'em close (except against Vick). PIT 24 - CAR 17 **Indianapolis @ Cleveland** 12:00pm (Indianapolis by 2½) Stupid Harrison. If he catches that TD I’m in the playoffs in the FFB league I commish. Now I’m just watching. The Browns are becoming one of those teams I try to avoid in bets, but I might take the horseshoes in this one. IND 28 - CLE 20 **Jacksonville @ Cincinnati** 12:00pm (Jacksonville by 3) I’m getting sucked right back into the Jaguar trap. Everytime I bet for or against them they screw me, but that line just looks tasty. JAX 27 - CIN 17 **Minnesota @ New Orleans** 12:00pm (New Orleans by 7) Someone explain to me how coming off the bench _during_ a live play _and_ making contact with an opponent doesn’t get you a suspension. Kleinsasser should be out for at least this one game. Brooks seems to be doing ok in practice so I think the Saints will take it in high scoring game. NO 31 - MIN 27 **N.Y. Jets @ Chicago** 12:00pm (N.Y. Jets by 6½) Man, could the Bears have some more injuries? I’m waiting for the phone to ring with Jauron asking if I can back up Burris this week. NYJ 28 - CHI 12 **Oakland @ Miami** 12:00pm (Miami by 1½) Do the 'Phins have a rain switch in their stadium? It seemed like when the Bears had the ball it was a torrential down pour, then they’d come back from commercial for Miami’s possession and it would be barely raining. This one will test Miami’s defense to the fullest, and let us know if their usual late season fade is about to begin. OAK 17 - MIA 16 **San Diego @ Buffalo** 12:00pm (Buffalo by 3) The 'Bolts either win in a close game or thy get blown out in a loss. I’m not sure what that should be telling me. It seems to be a game planning problem. You know they’ll have the defense geared to stop Bledsoe/Moulds/Price. Does that mean Travis Henry will kill them? Maybe, but I think LT2 kills the Bills more. SD 20 - BUF 17 **Seattle @ Atlanta** 12:00pm (Atlanta by 10) Hard to call, because I don’t know who will be QB for the Seahawks. I think they lose either way, but could cover if Hasselbeck is ok. D-V-D (Duckett-Vick-Dunn) should control this game against that weak Seattle rush defense. ATL 24 - SEA 16 **Tampa Bay @ Detroit** 12:00pm (Tampa Bay by 8½) This is my lock of the week, which probably means that the Lions will somehow win straight up. I doubt it though. TB 27 - DET 6 **Washington @ Philadelphia** 12:00pm (Philadelphia by 7½) Well, I thought Philly’s trap would be on the road in Seattle, but they managed to win that one. Not sure if they’re winning on emotion or solid play since I haven’t caught the games. Since Spurrier has decided to treat the rest of the season like it’s pre-season, I’ll go with Iggs to win and cover. PHI 27 - WAS 14 **Kansas City @ Denver** 3:05pm (Denver by 3½) Man, I’m not touching this one. I’m having a hard time predicting an outcome with no money on the line even. I’ll cop out and say the Broncos win but Chiefs cover. DEN 24 - KC 21 **Dallas @ N.Y. Giants** 3:15pm (N.Y. Giants by 5) I like the Giants a lot in this game, but can’t really tell you why. That probably means I should stay away. NYG 23 - DAL 10 **Green Bay @ San Francisco** 3:15pm (San Francisco by 3) As a cheesehead, I have to - by law - support the Pack. That said, they’re winning ugly and there are some serious holes on this team. Even banged up, I can see Hearst and Barlow controlling the game and allowing Owens to get some big plays. SF 27 - GB 14 **Arizona @ St. Louis** 7:30pm (St. Louis by 11) ESPN has got to be hating the schedule makers for putting this crap in primetime. Thank God Waner’s on the IR as that last game was ugly. With Bulger back and no healthy offensive players left on the Cards’ roster, plus home-field and Martz’s ego, the Rams should cruise. STL 31 - AZ 10 Monday Night Football **New England @ Tennessee** 8:00pm (Tennessee by 2) This should be a good game on Monday Night for a change. It wouldn’t surprise me to see either team win, so I’ll obviously not be betting it. For fun, I’ll go with the home team in OT. TEN 27 - NE 24 ---
**Author:** ![DKW](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dkw/32/3118_2.png) [@DKW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DKW)\ **Post date:** [December 14, 2002, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-picks-week-15/142679/7 "2002-12-14T23:44:30Z")
The lessons I’ve learned this season: 1. Don’t root for the maligned star quarterback who was drummed off his team and hope that he’ll have a big season for his new team and show his old buddies what they’re been missing, because it never, never, neeeverrrrr ever, EVER happens. 2. Don’t root for a snakebitten team to eventually turn it around. There are Lions and Cardinals fans who will live their whole lives without that ever coming close to happening. 3. Pay attention to the weird, crazy, fluky, completely inexplicable streaks (e.g. Vikings always beating the Packers in the Metrodome), because God himself cannot break one of those. Don’t even bother cheering for the team that’s destined to lose. You’ll just be disappointed. 4. Keep a damn record of the people on this board so you KNOW which one is the Broncos fan and which one is the Chiefs fan. Bandwagon picks: **1. Browns** Deserve it more than the Steelers. Better chance of not choking in the homestretch than the Steelers. Bring it on. **2. Eagles** The incredible run continues. **3. Buccaneers** Ditto. **4. Chargers** I’d like them to make a fight of it in the AFC West (for a change). **5. Bengals** What the hey…it’s only 1 point, and I just don’t think any team should have to go through an entire season with just one win. Top 10 standings: 1. 21 - Eagles 2. 17.5 - Buccaneers 3. 17 - Bills 4. 14.5 - Packers 5. 12 - Dolphins 6. 11 - Panthers, Steelers 7. 10 - 49ers, Browns, Cardinals Eagles finally are alone at the top. Barring a major letdown, they look like they’ll still be there at the end. (Man, has this season narrowed down my bandwagon choices…) ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2002, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-picks-week-15/142679/8 "2002-12-15T17:13:42Z")
Jumping in again to keep my hand in. I’m also disappointed that there has not been as much participation here this year. Wonder what the cause is? Sunday Games **Baltimore @ Houston** 12:00pm (Baltimore by 3) I’m taking several underdogs and roaddogs today. Here’s the first underdog pick. I think I’m getting a soft spot for this Houston team, which is impairing my judgement. Texans 21-19 **Carolina @ Pittsburgh** 12:00pm (Pittsburgh by 8½) Roaddog number 1 here. I think Maddox has just lost it. Carolina can play brutal defense and you have to think that their big win against the Bungles last week, plus Pittsburgh’s bizarre loss to the Texans last week, might result in a Panthers road win. However I think if Maddox falters and Stewart is brought in as a reliever early enough then the Steelers will win. Panthers 17-14 **Indianapolis @ Cleveland** 12:00pm (Indianapolis by 2½) Couch sucks at home, and the Browns have been winning on luck. The Colts should rebound against the Browns, and the weather is favorable for this. Colts 27-21 **Jacksonville @ Cincinnati** 12:00pm (Jacksonville by 3) I have a slight inclination that the Bengals might win this game. But statistically that’s just not the way to go when the Bengals are involved. And the temperature is going to get up near 50 today. Jags 25-21 **Minnesota @ New Orleans** 12:00pm (New Orleans by 7) Saints should win this one going away. Which is not something I want to happen, but it’s still the way to bet. Saints 35-24 **N.Y. Jets @ Chicago** 12:00pm (N.Y. Jets by 6½) Chicago is just fighting for a good draft pick now. The Jets need to win out to have a prayer at the playoffs, plus get some help. I think the Chadster can do it for them. Jets 24-17 **Oakland @ Miami** 12:00pm (Miami by 1½) This was going to be one of my road dog picks. But they just lost another defensive back, Charles Woodson IIRC is inactive. So I’ve waffled over to Miami. Expect Fiedler to set up the Raiders defense and Ricky to rumble. Dolphins 31-28 **San Diego @ Buffalo** 12:00pm (Buffalo by 3) The Chargers are actually better designed for cold weather than the Bills. Bledsoe has struggled lately. I think Tomlinson will be the deciding factor here. Might be a good week to have him on your fantasy team. Chargers 26-21 **Seattle @ Atlanta** 12:00pm (Atlanta by 10) I expect Atlanta to come back with a vengence against a Seattle squad which has struggled on the road. If they can contain Shaun Alexander they should win in a walk. But just to hedge my bets I’ll take the Hawks ATS. Falcons 30-21 **Tampa Bay @ Detroit** 12:00pm (Tampa Bay by 8½) As always, I’m nervous when my boys take the field. But there’s no reason to pick against them this week, other than perhaps complacency or the strange Texans/Steelers game last week. And the Lions are hurting in their running game, which should be the most likely way the Bucs would lose. If they can avoid TwilightZoneesque turnovers, this should be a winner. Late news here: Lynch is out with a neck strain for the Bucs, but Stewart is also out for the Lions. Bucs 28-10 **Washington @ Philadelphia** 12:00pm (Philadelphia by 7½) Another very easy pick, at least on the surface. The only doubt I have about this is that you figure at some point the Eagles will melt down against someone they should beat easily. That and my friend, who is the luckiest person I know, is at this game as a hidden Redskins fan. He’s not going to cheer out loud, but he’ll want the Eagles to lose, and that may be enough. Eagles 35-7 **Kansas City @ Denver** 3:05pm (Denver by 3½) Denver just seems to be melting down for the past several weeks. Shanahan seems to have forgotten how to get his team to win. And the Chiefs are as set as any team to spoil seasons. Chiefs win and Broncos miss the playoffs. Chiefs 30-24 **Dallas @ N.Y. Giants** 3:15pm (N.Y. Giants by 5) Another one where the home team should win but could lose, just because that’s the way these go sometimes. The Giants have a very good pass defense, so if the Cowboys are to win they’ll have to win it on the ground. Don’t think it will happen. Giants 20-10 **Green Bay @ San Francisco** 3:15pm (San Francisco by 3) This game is going to be played on a very sloppy field. The Packers have looked very beatable for the past four weeks. Homefield should do the trick for the 49ers. SF 27-17 **Arizona @ St. Louis** 7:30pm (St. Louis by 11) Bulger will be the difference in this game. I expect him to be the starter next year. Cardinals should have no chance in this game, but the 11 point spread is a bit of an insult. Rams 30-21 Monday Night Football **New England @ Tennessee** 8:00pm (Tennessee by 2) Gotta take the Patsies here, but I’m not putting many confidence points on it. I like them in the stretch run, plus I expect the Titans and Colts to swap places every week atop the AFC south. Patriots 24-21 ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2002, 9:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-picks-week-15/142679/9 "2002-12-16T09:12:06Z")
Well, another week passes and real life screwes over any chance I had to making this thread useful for me. However, every week I put no effort into making my picks I do well! Every week I do research and spew my theories here along with all kinds of dedicated opinions about match ups I end up going 2-3 in my pick 5 OMNI pool. But the weeks I’ve had to ignore entirely until 4AM Saturday night and make my picks blind based on nothing but gut feel I’ve gone 4-1. It happened again this week. My **OMNI** picks this week were: **Philidelphia, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Baltimore** and **Indianapolis**. Won 'em all but the shockingly close Bucs game, that was one of my most confident picks frankly, and I almost substituted the Jacksonville game for it. Damn it. Well, maybe I’ll pick it up for the past couple weeks. Sadly, I was on a serious bender last night and had been up for like 44 hours on all of 90 minutes of sleep, so I slept until 6PM and missed all this weekends games. Hope I didn’t miss anything too exciting. Glad to see some of you are still reading, especially our old mentor Gazoo. ---
**Author:** ![DKW](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dkw/32/3118_2.png) [@DKW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DKW)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2002, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-picks-week-15/142679/10 "2002-12-16T20:47:25Z")
Omniscient - It often turns out like that, doesn’t it? (Don’t get me started on college basketball.) Aside…why is picking the underdog to beat the spread but not win a “cop out”? Aside from the fact that the spread pick is independent of the straight-up pick, the whole _point_ of the spread is to encourage action on a team that probably won’t win. Coming out ahead is hard enough as it is…handicapping yourself with silly notions of courage or righteousness or whatever makes no sense to me at all. ---
**Author:** ![Gazoo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ce73a5/32.png) [@Gazoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gazoo)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2002, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-picks-week-15/142679/11 "2002-12-16T21:03:38Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by DKW \* > **Aside…why is picking the underdog to beat the spread but not win a “cop out”?** Personally, when I use it as a cop-out it’s usually in a game with a small spread that I don’t feel comfortable betting on either team. By predicting the favorite to win but not cover, at least I’ll automatically get either a straight-up or an against-the-spread prediction right. ---
**Author:** ![pepperlandgirl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/f17d59/32.png) [@pepperlandgirl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pepperlandgirl)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2002, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-picks-week-15/142679/12 "2002-12-16T21:37:56Z")
I was out of town this weekend, and missed all of the games on Sunday. Imagine my unbridled joy when I saw the scores! Raiders lost! Chargers lost! Chiefs lost! The Broncos are still in the Playoff Picture!! YAY!!! Now, if only the Broncos can beat the Raiders next week, we’ll be good.