# NFL Playoff scenarios **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** football-nfl\ **Created:** [December 25, 2023, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120 "2023-12-25T15:05:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 19\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/1 "2023-12-25T15:05:15Z")
Two weeks left to go and here is where we are at. NFC - 4 teams clinched & 7 teams competing for 3 spots. Unless something really wacky happens the wild cards will be three of these teams Tampa Bay 8-7 Los Angeles Rams 8-7 Seattle Seahawks 8-7 Minnesota 7-8 Atlanta 7-8 Green Bay 7-8 New Orleans 7-8 Week 17 Head-to-Head NO @ TB GB @ Minn Week 18 Head-to-Head Atl @ NO Notes Rams have the tiebreak over the Seahawks due to H2H. I’m not sure what happens if a three or more way tie. New Orleans is clearly the 7-8 team with the best shot despite being #7 currently for the top 3 spots. All they have to do is win out. AFC - Only 2 clinched spots. 3-way tie for the AFC South among Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Houston In the AFC West, Kansas City’s magic number over Denver is 1 Two not-yet-official wild card teams already have 9+ wins: Buffalo and Cleveland Five teams have 8 wins: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Houston. One of thoses will be a division winner. So we have effectively 4 teams for 1 slot Week 17 Head-to-Head Cin @ KC (Might be impactful if Cincinnati wins) Week 18 Head-to-Head Cleve @ Cin Houston @ Indy Notes With only 1 impactful H2H in the next 2 weeks (Houston/Indianapolis), look for it to be a complete cluster of scenarios the next 2 weeks. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/2 "2023-12-25T15:29:29Z")
Barring something unexpected, both the AFC and NFC will involve an unusually-strong wild card road team visiting an unusually-weak home team. One NFC wild card will probably be the Cowboys (who may be 12-5) visiting the NFC South division champion, who may be 8-9. One AFC wild card will probably be the Browns (who may be 12-5) visiting the AFC South division champion, who may be 9-8. Both South divisions suck this year. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/3 "2023-12-25T15:42:55Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Two not-yet-official wild card teams already have 9+ wins: Buffalo and Cleveland There’s 5 8-7 teams fighting for 2 spots (the AFC South title and the 3rd wild card). The 10-5 Browns have a 2 game lead of course on all of them with 2 weeks to go. Despite this they have yet to clinch. Cincy I’ll grant since they play each other next weekend; beat their cross-state rivals and they’re in. They beat the Jags, Colts, AND Texans of course so none of those teams can knock Cleveland out directly if they end up tied, which means the **only** way they won’t go in is if they do end up at 10-7 but are tied by the Steelers AND Bengals AND the Bills also manage to beat them out (by record or by tiebreak). [Recall they lost a heartbreaker to Pittsburgh early on a lost fumble] But I also dunno who would come out on top if any of the other 8-7’s _also_ get to 10-7 (in which case the 3+ way tiebreaker rules come into play). Seems like the odds that the Browns won’t make it even if they lose their last 2 appear to be _very_ meager, but weirder things have happened. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/4 "2023-12-25T15:46:02Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > But I also dunno who would come out on top if any of the other 8-7’s _also_ get to 10-7 (in which case the 3+ way tiebreaker rules come into play). If you want to check out all the possibilities, you can play with the ESPN playoff machine. > **[ESPN.com's 2024 NFL Playoff Machine - Playoff Matchup Predictor](https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine)** > > Use the NFL Playoff Machine from ESPN to predict the NFL Playoff matchups by generating the various matchup scenarios based on your selections. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/5 "2023-12-25T15:51:18Z")
Alas looks like that thing doesn’t work in Firefox. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/6 "2023-12-25T15:55:41Z")
It doesn’t work for me in either Firefox or Chrome. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/7 "2023-12-25T16:01:32Z")
Yeah, it’s not working today for me, either. I’m using Chrome. Here’s another one that appears to work. > **[Free NFL Playoff Predictor 2023-2024](https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-playoff-predictor)** > > Pro Football Network’s NFL Playoff Predictor allows you to plug in who you think will win each week to help shape the updated playoff picture and matchups. Using this one, I found a scenario in which the Browns do not make the playoffs. Steelers, Browns, Bengals, Jags, and Colts all finish 10-7, while the Bills finish 11-6. Jags win the South, Bills win the first WC. Steelers and Colts win the other two wild-cards. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/8 "2023-12-25T16:12:20Z")
Knowing the Browns, this is exactly what will happen. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/9 "2023-12-25T16:19:02Z")
Whoever does these tiebreak things apparently hasn’t really gone through all the scenarios, because I just noticed that the Bengals are an appalling 0-5 in the division and thus will still lose to the Browns if they tie after beating them on the final weekend (1-1 head to head since Cleveland already won their 1st matchup). 2 of the 8-7 teams will play each other (Houston and Indy), eliminating the loser. So how does Cleveland get bounced out of the playoffs if they will own the tiebreaks against everyone other than the Steelers? ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/10 "2023-12-25T16:37:56Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > So how does Cleveland get bounced out of the playoffs if they will own the tiebreaks against everyone other than the Steelers? IIRC, if there are 3 or more teams tied, and 2 or more are from the same division, divisional tiebreakers are applied first. So if the Steelers, Browns, Bengals, and Colts all finish 10-7, and there are two spots available, the divisional tiebreakers apply and that would eliminate the Browns and Bengals. That leaves the Steelers and Colts as the WC teams, even though the Browns and Bengals both beat the Colts. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/11 "2023-12-25T16:57:30Z")
Yeah, I figured it was something kaa-kaa koo-koo like that. I always thought head-to-head was always [ _über alles_ over all other considerations, but apparently that’s incorrect. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/12 "2023-12-25T17:00:06Z")
The NFC can be pretty easy. Tampa Bay, LA Rams and Seattle win out they’re in and everyone else is out. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/13 "2023-12-25T17:51:49Z")
The reason head-to-head can’t be used in a 3-way (or 4-way, etc.) tie is because it turns into rock-paper-scissors. If Team A has beaten Team B who has beaten Team C, but Team C has beaten Team A, then all of their head-to-head wins essentially cancel each other out so that no team can claim to be superior. As such, it has to turn into something like divisional record or common/conference opponents instead. ---
**Author:** ![OldGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/3bc359/32.png) [@OldGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2023, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/14 "2023-12-25T21:44:00Z")
It can be used but only if one team has swept the others or lost to all the others. In fact that’s the first rule except that only applies to one team from each division as you rank divisions first. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/15 "2023-12-26T14:09:48Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > The NFC can be pretty easy. Tampa Bay, LA Rams and Seattle win out they’re in and everyone else is out. The same can be said of the AFC. Chiefs are in with a win. Browns are in with a win. Bills are in with two wins. Jags are in with two wins. Colts are win with two wins.\* Texans are win with two wins.\* \*Colts and Texans play each other in the last week of the season. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/16 "2023-12-26T19:09:49Z")
According to the New York Times’ playoff tracker, the Bengals still stand about a 95% chance of making the playoffs if they win both their remaining two games. Lose either one, though, and their odds drop to near-nil. From a league front-office standpoint, this season couldn’t have gone better. These closely-packed-together contenders are making for many compelling storylines all the way down to the wire of the season’s last weeks. A lot fewer bored viewers this season at this time of the year than before. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/17 "2023-12-26T19:11:44Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > the Bengals still stand about a 95% chance of making the playoffs if they win both their remaining two games. Right, but it’s not 100%, like the Bills or Colts or Texans or Jags. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/18 "2023-12-26T20:19:38Z")
All four teams from the AFC North can make the playoffs if the following happens: Week 17: Browns beat Jets. Ravens beat Dolphins Patriots beat Bills Titans beat Texans Raiders beat Colts Panthers beat Jaguars Steelers beat Seahawks Bengals beat Chiefs Week 18: Steelers beat Ravens Bengals beat Browns Colts beat Texans Dolphins beat Bills Titans beat Jaguars In this scenario, the Browns would have 6 losses, and the Bengals and Steelers would have 7 losses. Every other wild-card contender would have at least 8 losses. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [December 28, 2023, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoff-scenarios/995120/19 "2023-12-28T05:13:32Z")
The Bears are still alive for a playoff berth with something like a 0.7% chance. > **[Going through the NFL multiverse: Here's every scenario that could lead to...](https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/nfl/chicago-bears/going-through-the-multiverse-to-see-how-bears-can-make-the-playoffs/527913/?amp=1)** > > Buckle up, it's a wild ride to a Bears postseason berth That’s worth the read just to understand how convoluted this whole thing is. There’s like 8 scenarios where the Bears get in, but they are all super unlikely because of how many things need to happen.