# NFL Playoffs - 2018 Edition **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [December 31, 2018, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008 "2018-12-31T22:47:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2019, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/201 "2019-01-15T18:16:01Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Well, as a matter of fact… That’s a fair point, especially since google says the 2pt success rate in 2018 was a staggering 60%. I’m more interested in the thought experiment where a PAT is 100% and a 2pt is exactly 50%. The way I look at it is this: 1. I need another TD 2. I need one 2pt conversion, with little way to improve the odds on it 3. I need one PAT, with no way to improve the odds on it No matter what we do, we need all three of the above things. Going for a 2pt first and missing cuts down on the chances of the TD by a substantial margin. Since I can’t really change the other two, I focus my decision on maximizing the chances of the TD. ---
**Author:** ![Taber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ac91a4/32.png) [@Taber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Taber)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2019, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/202 "2019-01-15T23:28:12Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > No matter what we do, we need all three of the above things. Going for a 2pt first and missing cuts down on the chances of the TD by a substantial margin. > > Since I can’t really change the other two, I focus my decision on maximizing the chances of the TD. But if you go for the 2pt on the second time and miss, you just lose. Going for the 2pt first and making it means you know you can get the maximum chance of the TD. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/203 "2019-01-16T01:47:35Z")
> [@Taber](#): > > Going for the 2pt first and making it means you know you can get the maximum chance of the TD. …half the time. The other half of the time you missed the 2pt and essentially lost the game right there and then. Any way you slice, if you miss the 2pt conversion you need a miracle to win. Strategizing a way to maximize the miracle odds is a fool’s errand, and is really only applicable to videogames. When you have real people (athletes and coaches) involved, it’s not a sound strategy to put all your eggs in one 50% play before you absolutely have to. (However, in the real world, with the success rate of 60%, I can see selling that to the team, ownership, and fans.) ---
**Author:** ![Taber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ac91a4/32.png) [@Taber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Taber)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2019, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/204 "2019-01-16T02:25:21Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > …half the time. The other half of the time you missed the 2pt and essentially lost the game right there and then. It is also only half the time if you save the 2 pointer for later, you just don’t know it yet. I’m just saying that it is irrelevant to say that going for 2 later maximizes your chance to get the TD, because 50% of the time, you know for sure you should maximize the TD chance even if you went for the 2 points early, and the other 50% of the time, maximizing the TD chance just means you lose by 2 instead of 9. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2019, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/205 "2019-01-20T16:14:00Z")
Who you got today? I looked on [vegasinsider.com](http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/) this morning and was surprised to see the lines on today’s games are exactly the same: Saints are favored by 3 1/2 over the Rams. Over/under is 56 1/2. Chiefs are favored by 3 1/2 over the Pats. Over/under is 56 1/2. I think both underdogs win the games. And I think that both games will be under 56 1/2 points. I hope I’m wrong on all counts. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2019, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/206 "2019-01-20T18:05:06Z")
I would very much like to see a SB where Brady takes on Brees, I’m pretty sure they’ve not played in the big game before. However, I really like watching Mahomes play too, and am generally rooting for KC because they deserve a SB berth and their fans are really cool. I guess ultimately all you can ask for are good games. We should see plenty of offense. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2019, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/207 "2019-01-20T19:55:07Z")
Is anyone else sick and tired of the utter bullsit of the Pat’s trying to play up their underdog status and how disrespected they are? ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2019, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/208 "2019-01-20T20:27:03Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Is anyone else sick and tired of the utter bullsit of the Pat’s trying to play up their underdog status and how disrespected they are? Yes, although that doesn’t worry me half as much as those fucking “real person” Chevy commercials. I’d like to bludgeon everyone involved in them to death with a tire iron, reserving special treatment for the smug bearded asshole in the grey jacket. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2019, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/209 "2019-01-20T20:47:49Z")
Saints utterly dominating the Rams right now. Really look like they’re in their heads. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2019, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/210 "2019-01-20T21:03:03Z")
I did not foresee Todd Gurley being the main cause of the Rams losing so far. He drops one pass, which goes for a interception and another Saints score. Then drops another in the red zone that should have gone for a huge first down. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2019, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/211 "2019-01-20T21:33:07Z")
Rams fake punt and their stellar defense have made a game of it at halftime. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2019, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/212 "2019-01-20T21:41:24Z")
Is it just me, or is someone in the crowd blowing a whistle while the Rams are on offense? ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2019, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/213 "2019-01-20T21:42:49Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Is it just me, or is someone in the crowd blowing a whistle while the Rams are on offense? It definitely sounded that way to me, on at least one play. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2019, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/214 "2019-01-20T21:53:08Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > It definitely sounded that way to me, on at least one play. Confirmed by Troy Aikman. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2019, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/215 "2019-01-20T22:13:24Z")
Fun game. Both teams rising to the occasion, neither team hitting or killing themselves. ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2019, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/216 "2019-01-20T22:38:57Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Is anyone else sick and tired of the utter bullsit of the Pat’s trying to play up their underdog status and how disrespected they are? Speaking as a Chief’s fan, they are actually (and I think for the first time in a long time?) underdogs. Disrespected, not so much, although I guess Vegas having the temerity to install them as underdogs after seven years is a bit disrespectful. And think of those 11-month old Pat’s fans who’ve never seen their team win an AFC championship? don’t remember where I saw that, but I liked it ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2019, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/217 "2019-01-20T22:59:08Z")
Horrible no call. Shame. Saints better win or that will be the defining moment. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2019, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/218 "2019-01-20T23:00:58Z")
> [@Hamlet](#): > > Horrible no call. Shame. Saints better win or that will be the defining moment. Yeah, what the hell was that horseshit? ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2019, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/219 "2019-01-20T23:02:29Z")
That’s one of the most disgraceful no-calls I’ve ever seen in my life. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2019, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-playoffs-2018-edition/827008/220 "2019-01-20T23:08:56Z")
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