# NFL Predictions - Week 5 (Bargaining) **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 7, 2005, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242 "2005-10-07T21:33:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2005, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/1 "2005-10-07T21:33:50Z")
OK kids, I’m back. Sorry for the short delay but Thursday are getting a little busy. I’ve been playing flag football Thursday nights and then going to the bar afterwards. It’s wreaking havoc with my wagering and predictions. Quick FFL note, I just completed a trade in my money league, Warrick Dunn straight up for Chris Chambers. I think it’s a pretty good move, I was _loaded_ at RB and still have Anderson, McAllister, J. Jones, and Steven Davis. My WR corp has been drastically underachieving with starters Burleson, Bennett and Branch. I feel like I made a sizable improvement. Lemme throw a quick rant out there. Many of you probably read EPSN’s Bill Simmons regularly. I’m probably what you’d call a fan boy, sad huh? Anyways, take a look at a couple snippets from [todays column:](http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/051007) > [@Sports Guy](#): > > **PACKERS (-3) over Saints** > Favre looked like the old Favre on Monday night. Warrants mentioning. Which raises another question … > > Why can’t they trade him to a contender? Don’t the Packers fans WANT him to finish his career on a good team? By the time the Packers are relevant again, Favre will be long gone … so why not deal him to one of those “We could be good with the right QB” teams for a slew of young players and picks (assuming one of them has the cap space)? For instance, if Chicago traded Cedric Benson, next year’s No. 1 and a future No. 2 for Favre right now … from a pure football standpoint, which team would blanch before making that deal? Wouldn’t the Bears immediately become a Super Bowl contender? Somebody needs to grease the skids on this one. Favre was too memorable to watch him end things like this. Even seeing DeNiro in “Hide and Seek” wasn’t this depressing. WTF! I’m apoplectic here. Can you picture Favre in a Bears uni? Ugh, people would be shooting at him from rooftops, both Bears fans and Packer fans. It’s might be the first time we were ever in agreement. Emotionally, historically this might be the worst suggestion ever. It’s like him suggesting the Red Sox trade Papi and Papelbon for Clemens, except worse because Favre sucks now and Clemens is good. Also, the trade he proposes is fucking off the charts bad. Two No. 1s for a guy who people are wanting to retire now? Even if he were playing like 98 Favre, would you give up 2 first rounders for a guy that has maybe one year in him? Granted I’m the first guy to state that Benson is the worst draft choice since Curtis Enis, but still at least he has a little potential. And next years first rounder would probably be a top 10 pick, without Favre we’ll be in the top 3 and have a shot at Reggie Bush. Baffling. Excuse me while I throw my keyboard across the goddamn room. > [@Sports Guy](#): > > \*\* CHARGERS (-3) over Steelers\*\* > Sometime during the Pats game last week, I decided that Tomlinson was the best overall running back of my lifetime. There’s nothing he can’t do: deadly receiver, tough inside runner, explosive to the outside, you name it. Did you ever think you would see someone who has the best qualities of Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders AND Thurman Thomas? He’s just a force of nature, despite the fact that he stole Lawrence Taylor’s nickname. > > So when I was talking to my buddy Gus on Monday night, I triumphantly announced that I would be writing this new Tomlinson theory in today’s column, followed by a split-second of silence and Gus disdainfully responding, “Wait a second. What about Walter Payton?” > > Good point. Long live Sweetness. > > (The lesson, as always: I’m an idiot.) Now read what I wrote a week or so ago [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=6621288&postcount=9). Yes, yes indeed. Ok, enough banter, on to the picks. I’m going to try and limit the commentary some since we’re a little behind schedule, I may go back and elaborate or revise some picks later today or tomorrow since I’m not looking too close at stats and basically going with the gut. Also, I’ll come back and tally up my running totals after last weeks mess. Sunday, Oct. 9 **CLEVELAND 3 Chicago 36** Da Bears. Favre in a Jim Harbaugh jersey? The mind boggles. Cleveland worries me and I don’t have much faith in Orton on the road. Both teams are coming off a bye, I’m not sure who that favors. The Browns are going to struggle to run the ball and the Bears will have some success. Braylon Edwards has been very impressive so far, I totally did not predict that. He reminds me of a young TO minus the crazy. As solid as Dilfer has been he’s going to be playing the best D he’s faced to date, and without a running game the Browns will need to rely on Orton mistakes to put up points. I’m taking the Bears, but I’m not staking money on it. The pick: **Bears, Under** _Note: Watching the Pregame for the Sox-Sox in Fenway and they are playing the Rocky theme calling it “Do-or-Die”. Not sure how I feel about this._ **GREEN BAY 3 New Orleans 41** All season long I’m taking the over when the Pack are playing. The weather’s going to be a little chilly, and that might hurt the Saints. The Saints, as I’ve pointed out repeatedly, are a non-starter for wagering. The gut tells me that Favre gets it together here and the Saints make lots of mistakes in Lambeau. The pick: **Packers, Over** \*\*Tampa Bay 3½ N.Y. JETS 31½ \*\* V-I-N-N-Y……they still suck. The Bucs D is going to devour, devour I say, the Jets. However, without a healthy Cadillac the Bucs may struggle to find consistentcy on offense themselves. Griese looked like the Griese of old last week, but I think Gruden gets them back on track. Even if they are stuck with Pittman, I think he’ll manage to run against that D. The pick: **Bucs, Under** \*\*ST. LOUIS 3 Seattle 49½ \*\* You know, Mike Martz is a real piece of work. Did you see that stupid reverse call last week? It’s a nightmare for me, the Rams still have a ton of talent but Martz is the great equalizer……in the wrong way. I’m going to go with the gut and not over think this one. Alexander needs to have a big day because the Seahawks WRs are either hurt or sucky. The Rams have good numbers against the run, but haven’t played anyone worth a crap on the ground. The pick: **Seahawks, Under** \*\*ATLANTA 2½ New England 43½ \*\* Wounded Pats go on the road. Just for kicks, here’s the injury report for this matchup: Patriots: PROBABLE: QB Tom Brady (right shoulder) QUESTIONABLE: LB Tully Banta-Cain (knee); LB Matt Chatham (knee); CB Randall Gay (ankle); T Brandon Gorin (thigh); DE Marquise Hill (ankle); WR Bethel Johnson (knee); CB Tyrone Poole (ankle); S James Sanders (ankle); CB Chad Scott (shoulder/hand); DE Richard Seymour (knee); CB Duane Starks (thigh) OUT: RB Kevin Faulk (foot); T Matt Light (ankle) Falcons: PROBABLE: QB Michael Vick (knee) Um, feeling confident in the champs? For some reason Harrison isn’t even listed as OUT. Maybe they ran out of space and it was truncated……I’ve got a feeling that the Pats will get it together, Belichick and Brady are both pissed and talking big to the media. However the Falcon D has looked really really impressive. They just don’t have enough to handle them. The pick: **Falcons, Under** \*\*BUFFALO 2½ Miami 33½ \*\* The Bills pulled Losman for Rob Johnson. That’s all I need to know. The pick: **Dolphins, Under** \*\*DETROIT 1 Baltimore 33 \*\* Can’t remember the last time I saw a 1 point spread. The Anthony Wright Experience vs Joey Harrington Surprise, who do you like? I thought the Lions got hosed last week, and as a result I lost a bet. That TD would have given me the over, I was not pleased. At any rate, something tells me that the Lions offense will put a few things together here. Just a little more than the artist former known as Jamal Lewis can. The pick: **Lions, Under** \*\*HOUSTON 3 Tennessee 40½ \*\* Both teams have looked pathetic. The Titans have keys guys like Bennett, Kinney and Troupe dinged up and questionable. Assuming a couple of those guys play, I’m going to just go with the best player on the field. That player is Steve McNair. The pick: **Titans, Over** \*\*Indianapolis 15 SAN FRANCISCO 46½ \*\* 15 points? Wow. I just have a feeling that the 49ers will keep it together at home and play reasonably well. Then again, they are yanking Rattay for Alex Smith. Cardinal rule, never bet on a rookie QB against a Super Bowl contender. The pick: **Colts, Under** \*\*Carolina 2½ ARIZONA 43 \*\* This is one of those red flag games, a team that played on Monday night going on the road across the country. Normally I’d go against them quickly, but this is the Cardinals we’re talking about, a team that was in Mexico City last week. I suppose that might balance it out a little bit. The Cards D hasn’t been terrible, and McCown looked good last week, but the Panthers aren’t the 49ers. The pick: **Panthers, Over** \*\*Philadelphia 3 DALLAS 44½ \*\* You know, I want to pick the home team here. I’ve picked a scary number of road teams this week, a fact I may have to review later, but just picture the statue-like Bledsoe up against the Eagles frequent blitzes. Is that something you’d stake hard earned money on? I think not. The pick: **Eagles, Under** **DENVER 6½ Washington 35** That’s seems to be too many points against a team that’s 3-0. I do like Denver at home, but Washington has been pretty good against the run. When it comes down to it, I think the Broncos will win the game, but I can’t give away that many points. One too many mistakes by Plummer under pressure and Portis gets motivated enough to make a game of it. Yes, I’m picking another road team……though if I change any picks, this will be the first. The pick: **Redskins, Over** \*\*JACKSONVILLE 2½ Cincinnati 37 \*\* This is nuts, as good as the Jags D has been and as solid as the aged Jimmy Smith has played, even at home they should be favored over the Bengals. Granted this is the first thing that’s resembled a test for the Bengals, but they shouldn’t be underdogs. Sigh, will I talk myself in _another_ road dog? Everything in me says that the Bengals will win. But damn! The Jags took it on the chin at home last week, why shouldn’t they again? Someone please talk me out of some of these picks…… The pick: **Bengals, Over** Monday, Oct. 10 **SAN DIEGO 3 Pittsburgh 45** Finally I get to pick a home team. Between my man-crush on LT and the fact that I’ve picked an absurd number of road teams, I’m not even going to allow myself a chance to rationalize a way to go against the Chargers here. I know Bettis is due back and the Steelers D is just a bit better than the Giants :rolleyes:, but still! The pick: **Chargers, Under** ---
**Author:** ![MysteryFellow63427](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a88e4f/32.png) [@MysteryFellow63427](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MysteryFellow63427)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2005, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/2 "2005-10-07T22:38:35Z")
I did these picks blind, lest Omni’s prescient wisdom unduly influence me. CLEVELAND (-3) over Chicago, Under (35 1/2) Chicago won’t get it done on the road, but their lack of offense and good defense should keep the scores in this game under 20. GREEN BAY (-3) over New Orleans, Over (41 1/2) Favre had a return to form last weekend… maybe he can keep it up. Tampa Bay (-3) over NEW YORK JETS, Under (31 1/2) Both teams hurting a bit on offense, but Tampa’s going to pull off the ugly win. Seattle (+3) over ST. LOUIS, Under (49 1/2) Which Mike can out-stupid the other? My money’s on Martz. ATLANTA (-3) over New England, Under (43 1/2) New England’s hurting on D, and their rushing attack stinks. Atlanta covers at home. Miami (+3) over BUFFALO, Under (34 1/2) Sure, Miami. I don’t give a damn. DETROIT (-1 1/2) over Baltimore, Under (33) No opinion on these teams, so I’ll go with the Lions purely on the fact that they’re at home in a dome. HOUSTON (-3) over Tennessee, Under (40 1/2) Houston, despite being 0-3, wasn’t looking that bad against the Bengals last week. If not for the officials botched fumble call in the waning minutes, they actually might’ve pulled off an upset. At home against the struggling Titans, I’ll go for the new Oilers over the old Oilers. Indianapolis (-14 1/2) over SAN FRANCISCO, Under (46 1/2) I was going to pick S.F. with the points, but then I noticed that the 49ers are last in the league versus the pass, allowing 370 yards per game. The Colts are going to eat them alive. Carolina (-2 1/2) over ARIZONA, Over (43) Philadelphia (-3) over DALLAS, Under (44 1/2) Actually I think Dallas has a very good shot at home, but I hate them too much to pick them. Washington (+7) over DENVER, Over (34 1/2) Denver might win, but they won’t win by more than a touchdown. JACKSONVILLE (-3) over Cincinatti, Under (37) Cinci’s opponents have combined for a 3-10 schedule this year. Jacksonville hands them their first loss. Pittsburgh (+3) over SAN DIEGO, Under (45 1/2) The Steelers have had two weeks for this one. I think they can squeak a win. I mean, San Diego can’t deal a blowout for the third week running… can it? ---
**Author:** ![Monocracy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monocracy/32/4493_2.png) [@Monocracy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monocracy)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2005, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/3 "2005-10-08T02:43:22Z")
My record so far: 0-2 > [@Omniscient](#): > > \*\*ATLANTA 2½ New England 43½ \*\* > Wounded Pats go on the road. Just for kicks, here’s the injury report for this matchup: > > Patriots: PROBABLE: QB Tom Brady (right shoulder) > QUESTIONABLE: LB Tully Banta-Cain (knee); LB Matt Chatham (knee); CB Randall Gay (ankle); T Brandon Gorin (thigh); DE Marquise Hill (ankle); WR Bethel Johnson (knee); CB Tyrone Poole (ankle); S James Sanders (ankle); CB Chad Scott (shoulder/hand); DE Richard Seymour (knee); CB Duane Starks (thigh) > OUT: RB Kevin Faulk (foot); T Matt Light (ankle) > > Falcons: PROBABLE: QB Michael Vick (knee) > > Um, feeling confident in the champs? For some reason Harrison isn’t even listed as OUT. Maybe they ran out of space and it was truncated……I’ve got a feeling that the Pats will get it together, Belichick and Brady are both pissed and talking big to the media. However the Falcon D has looked really really impressive. They just don’t have enough to handle them. > > The pick: **Falcons, Under** Harrison is out for the season. Is he supposed to be listed every game in the OUT section or is it automatically assumed? The Pats have a really good offense. I think they’ll be able to slow the hemorrhaging on their defense enough to squeak by with enough points on offense. I’ll pray for the **Patriots** for a win. > [@](#): > > \*\*Indianapolis 15 SAN FRANCISCO 46½ \*\* > 15 points? Wow. I just have a feeling that the 49ers will keep it together at home and play reasonably well. Then again, they are yanking Rattay for Alex Smith. Cardinal rule, never bet on a rookie QB against a Super Bowl contender. > > The pick: **Colts, Under** 15 points is a lot. I’ll take the **49ers** just for the hell of it. > [@](#): > > \*\*Carolina 2½ ARIZONA 43 \*\* > This is one of those red flag games, a team that played on Monday night going on the road across the country. Normally I’d go against them quickly, but this is the Cardinals we’re talking about, a team that was in Mexico City last week. I suppose that might balance it out a little bit. The Cards D hasn’t been terrible, and McCown looked good last week, but the Panthers aren’t the 49ers. > > The pick: **Panthers, Over** The Panthers have a pretty dismal record considering the teams they’ve faced. I say that the **Cardinals** suck less. > [@](#): > > **SAN DIEGO 3 Pittsburgh 45** > Finally I get to pick a home team. Between my man-crush on LT and the fact that I’ve picked an absurd number of road teams, I’m not even going to allow myself a chance to rationalize a way to go against the Chargers here. I know Bettis is due back and the Steelers D is just a bit better than the Giants :rolleyes:, but still! > > The pick: **Chargers, Under** The Chargers impressed me more against the Pats than the Steelers. But we’re still talking the Steelers here. Carolina is gonna squeak by. I’ll go for the **push** and **under**. ---
**Author:** ![Kiros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/439d5e/32.png) [@Kiros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kiros)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2005, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/4 "2005-10-08T03:07:57Z")
On with the pick 5 so I can know who not to bet on this week! Seriously, good read, keep it up 🙂 Also, I am at least as big a Simmons fan boy as you, probably a bigger one, given that I grew up nearest to Boston and those are my teams. His trade is kind of crazy… mostly because of the whole Favre in a Bears uniform thing, though. He definitely has a point that the Bears are a halfway competent QB away from being a serious contender, and they might even be willing to overpay a little for such a QB… but Favre is absolutely the wrong one. ---
**Author:** ![soulmurk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b782af/32.png) [@soulmurk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/soulmurk)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2005, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/5 "2005-10-08T06:37:08Z")
> [@Monocracy](#): > > The Pats have a really good offense. I think they’ll be able to slow the hemorrhaging on their defense enough to squeak by with enough points on offense. I’ll pray for the **Patriots** for a win. Invariably, every time I open my mouth, things turn out exactly the opposite way just to spite me (which is why I patently refuse to argue/debate/bet on my Skins before the game because I always see how they _could_ win and assume they will). However, I think Atlanta, at home, averaging over 200 rush yards per game, is going to be more than the Patriot’s banged up defense can handle. If they can run early and often, and chew up the clock, they’ll do to the defending champs what the champs did to the Colts in the playoffs last year: namely, keep their strengths off the field. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2005, 10:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/6 "2005-10-08T10:57:21Z")
> [@Monocracy](#): > > The Pats have a really good offense. I think they’ll be able to slow the hemorrhaging on their defense enough to squeak by with enough points on offense. I’ll pray for the Patriots for a win. This is the catch, they lost Matt Light, the left tackle, for probably the season last week. They are going up against Patrick Kearney and the Atlanta defense who lead the league with 17 sacks already. To complicate matters they lost Faulk, their 3rd down/blocking back. No way they get it together. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2005, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/7 "2005-10-08T10:58:26Z")
> [@Kiros](#): > > On with the pick 5 so I can know who not to bet on this week! Low blow, dude, low blow. You’ll be getting a pick 5 and a quick season summary sometime later today. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2005, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/8 "2005-10-08T11:02:36Z")
1:00pm…\*\*BROWNS…3…Bears…36…\*\*_Bears cover, and keep it under._ 1:00pm…\*\*PACKERS…3…Saints…41…\*\*_Packers bust out big, but it stays under._ 1:00pm…\*\*Bucs…3½…JETS…31½…\*\*_Go Jets! Vinny plays well, covering the over._ 1:00pm…\*\*RAMS…3…Seahawks…49½…\*\*_Seahawks get revenge for the 0-3 last year. Under._ 1:00pm…\*\*FALCONS…2½…Patriots…43½…\*\*_Vick goes down and the Pats win outright._ 1:00pm…\*\*BILLS…2½…Dolphins…33½…\*\*_SUCKER BET! RUN AWAY!!!_ 1:00pm…\*\*LIONS…1…Ravens…33…\*\*_Nothing looks good about this game. Nothing._ 1:00pm…\*\*TEXANS…3…Titans…40½…\*\*_Titans cover, along with the over._ 4:05pm…\*\*Colts…15…49ERS…46½…\*\*_Rookie gets first start? Colts should cover._ 4:15pm…\*\*Panthers…2½…CARDS…43…\*\*_Home team underdogs scare me. Bet the over._ 4:15pm…\*\*Eagles…3…COWBOYS…44½…\*\*_Cowboys in the upset. Way over._ 4:15pm…\*\*BRONCOS…6½…Redskins…35…\*\*_Redskins keep it close but lose._ 8:30pm…\*\*JAGUARS…2½…Bengals…37…\*\*_Jags too much for fading Bengals. Over._ 9:00pm…\*\*CHARGERS…3…Steelers…45…\*\*_Chargers are on fire. Points look like a push._ Spread Picker Picks 3 Bills 2 Cowboys 2 Jets 2 Pats 2 Rams 2 Ravens 1 Titans Early Games Risk 30 for 60 on the **Jets & the Over** Risk 30 for 125 on the: **Bills, Pats, & Ravens** Late Games Risk 55 for 50 on a tease: **Colts** giving 7, **Cowboys** getting 11, **Redskins** getting 14½ Sunday Night Risk 30 for 60 on the **Jags & the Over** Monday Night Risk 30 for 60 on the **Chargers & the Over** [post=6649310]Standings[/post] Last week: 6-12, -135 Season: 19-34, -195 Spread Picker: 9-2 Just for the record, I make my picks in the table by my gut. Then I tally the spread picker picks, and determine what action to take. Only then do I read everybody else’s picks the thread. I don’t want to contaminate my awful picks, you know. For those who want to refer back to previous weeks, the “Standings” is actually a link back to the roundup from the previous week’s thread, same as last week, and will likely continue on all season. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2005, 11:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/9 "2005-10-08T11:40:14Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > WTF! I’m apoplectic here. Can you picture Favre in a Bears uni? Ugh, people would be shooting at him from rooftops, both Bears fans and Packer fans. It’s might be the first time we were ever in agreement. Emotionally, historically this might be the worst suggestion ever. It’s like him suggesting the Red Sox trade Papi and Papelbon for Clemens, except worse because Favre sucks now and Clemens is good. Also, the trade he proposes is fucking off the charts bad. Two No. 1s for a guy who people are wanting to retire now? Even if he were playing like 98 Favre, would you give up 2 first rounders for a guy that has maybe one year in him? Granted I’m the first guy to state that Benson is the worst draft choice since Curtis Enis, but still at least he has a little potential. And next years first rounder would probably be a top 10 pick, without Favre we’ll be in the top 3 and have a shot at Reggie Bush. Baffling. Excuse me while I throw my keyboard across the goddamn room. While it is much more akin to if Marino were traded to the Jets instead of retiring, he was probably thinking more along the lines of Bledsoe going to the Bills. It still doesn’t make it any less of a crazy idea. I grew up in the Chicago area, and agree with you. Favre in a Bears uniform would surely be a sign of the End Times, and I haven’t noticed any planet-killer asteroids on a collision course with Earth lately, so I’m thinking it’ll never happen. Also, reading that Tomlinson bit, I thought of Sweetness before finishing the first sentence. > [@](#): > > The Rams have good numbers against the run, but haven’t played anyone worth a crap on the ground. I’m sorry, what? Tiki can’t run? Tiki didn’t have 128 yards and a rushing TD against the Rams? You’re not big on the NY market in general, are you? Second City complex, methinks. > [@](#): > > For some reason Harrison isn’t even listed as OUT. He’s not out, he’s on IR, which is not listed in the injury report. Speaking of which, I’m wondering if Bruschi will return this year. ---
**Author:** ![Kiros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/439d5e/32.png) [@Kiros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kiros)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2005, 6:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/10 "2005-10-09T06:01:24Z")
For the record, I think this week looks absolutely brutal pick-against-the-spread-wise. I can’t even fathom who I’d want in my own pick 5; but for fairness’ sake: **New England, Denver, Tennessee, Buffalo, San Diego** …and I probably wouldn’t _actually_ bet on anything this week unless I was a truly compulsive gambler. They say things are supposed to start looking clearer by now, but I just don’t see it. At all. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2005, 7:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/11 "2005-10-09T07:04:05Z")
To get it on record, and to give you folks a little time to adjust your wagers I’ll throw my Pick 5 out there now. **Atlanta, Indy, Cincy, Philly, Tampa** Yes, thats 4 road teams… ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2005, 7:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/12 "2005-10-09T07:31:49Z")
Had another poor showing last week. Went 5-9 against the spreads and 5-9 against the U/O. Did even worse, going 1-4, on the pick 5. I think I need to find a new hobby. My overall stats to date are frankly embarrassing. Totals: 23-35-1 against the spreads, 11-15 versus the O/U, and a abysmal 11-19 in the pick 5. Until further notice everyone should do the exact opposite what I suggest. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2005, 7:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/13 "2005-10-09T07:46:24Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > **GREEN BAY 3 New Orleans 41** > All season long I’m taking the over when the Pack are playing. The weather’s going to be a little chilly, and that might hurt the Saints. The Saints, as I’ve pointed out repeatedly, are a non-starter for wagering. The gut tells me that Favre gets it together here and the Saints make lots of mistakes in Lambeau. > > The pick: **Packers, Over** Quick little update, the Pack announced Najeh Davenport will be getting the start over a “banged up” Ahman Green. Personally, it sounds more like a demotion to me. Not sure this effects my pick at all, since it’d be hard for Davenport to be _worse_ than Green has been. There’s a reasonable chance that this will be a sizable improvement and solidify the pick. We shall see. > [@](#): > > \*\*ATLANTA 2½ New England 43½ \*\* > Wounded Pats go on the road. Just for kicks, here’s the injury report for this matchup: > > Patriots: PROBABLE: QB Tom Brady (right shoulder) > QUESTIONABLE: LB Tully Banta-Cain (knee); LB Matt Chatham (knee); CB Randall Gay (ankle); T Brandon Gorin (thigh); DE Marquise Hill (ankle); WR Bethel Johnson (knee); CB Tyrone Poole (ankle); S James Sanders (ankle); CB Chad Scott (shoulder/hand); DE Richard Seymour (knee); CB Duane Starks (thigh) > OUT: RB Kevin Faulk (foot); T Matt Light (ankle) > > Falcons: PROBABLE: QB Michael Vick (knee) > > Um, feeling confident in the champs? For some reason Harrison isn’t even listed as OUT. Maybe they ran out of space and it was truncated……I’ve got a feeling that the Pats will get it together, Belichick and Brady are both pissed and talking big to the media. However the Falcon D has looked really really impressive. They just don’t have enough to handle them. > > The pick: **Falcons, Under** Mora downgraded Vick to questionable. Again, I don’t think I’ll let his scare me away from the pick since Schaub looked very capable in relief last week. I’m wagering that Vick’s going to at least play some this week, and I’m staking the pick on Atlanta’s D against the riddled Pats pass protection. Still, something to pay attention to. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2005, 7:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/14 "2005-10-09T07:52:55Z")
> [@](#): > > \*\*ST. LOUIS 3 Seattle 49½ \*\* > You know, Mike Martz is a real piece of work. Did you see that stupid reverse call last week? It’s a nightmare for me, the Rams still have a ton of talent but Martz is the great equalizer……in the wrong way. I’m going to go with the gut and not over think this one. Alexander needs to have a big day because the Seahawks WRs are either hurt or sucky. The Rams have good numbers against the run, but haven’t played anyone worth a crap on the ground. > > The pick: Seahawks, Under I’m going to flip flop on this one, the Seahawks lost both starting WRs and will be fielding a pass catching combo of Joe Jurevicious, DJ Hackett and Peter Warrick. I just don’t think this much change in one week (with a cross country flight mixed in) is something they can adequately account for. They will effectively be a one-dimentional offense, and while I don’t expect a blowout, the Rams still can be formidable at home. New pick: **Rams, Over** ---
**Author:** ![soulmurk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b782af/32.png) [@soulmurk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/soulmurk)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2005, 8:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/15 "2005-10-09T08:10:01Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Had another poor showing last week. Went 5-9 against the spreads and 5-9 against the U/O. Did even worse, going 1-4, on the pick 5. I think I need to find a new hobby. > > My overall stats to date are frankly embarrassing. Totals: 23-35-1 against the spreads, 11-15 versus the O/U, and a abysmal 11-19 in the pick 5. Until further notice everyone should do the exact opposite what I suggest. You’re scaring me, my picks look eerily similar to yours… ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2005, 8:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/16 "2005-10-09T08:45:59Z")
> [@soulmurk](#): > > You’re scaring me, my picks look eerily similar to yours… Be very very concrened. ---
**Author:** ![BabaBooey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/dfb087/32.png) [@BabaBooey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BabaBooey)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2005, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/17 "2005-10-09T16:55:47Z")
Never posted my thoughts on here before, but I’m considering getting into betting online so would like to see how I do after the fact: Baltimore at Detroit (-1) Baltimore to win the game. Detroit turnovers will allow Baltimore good enough field position to get maybe a TD and two or three FG’s. Chicago at Cleveland (-3) Chicago to win the game. Thomas Jones will own the clock and the Chi Def will dominate. I think Orton will play like he did earlier in the season, not making any big plays nor turning the ball over often. Miami at Buffalo (-3) I don’t like this game. Saban has the Dolphins playing better than their talent level, but I think they keep it up and win outright. New England at Atlanta (-3) Another game I don’t like. Vick won’t be playing, but Schaub is a very capable backup. Doesn’t matter though, NE won’t lose two in a row. New Orleans at Green Bay (-3) I never bet on my Saints, but I think our fronts play very well, opening up lanes for Deuce, giving Brooks time to throw, and giving Favre and his depleted OLine little time to get anything done. Seattle at St. Louis (-3) Rams can’t stop Alexander. I’ll take his clock controlling running vs. Bulger’s efficient passing, Seattle wins outright. Tampa Bay at N.Y. Jets (+3.5) Tampa Bay covers despite Caddy being on the bench. Vinny gets mauled. Tennessee at Houston (-3) I think Tennessee loses by three, but if I have to go either way, let’s lean towards Tennessee covering. Indianapolis at San Francisco (+14) Indy covers. Carolina at Arizona (+3) I’m not buying the upset talks. Carolina covers. Philadelphia at Dallas (+3.5) Philly covers. Washington at Denver (-7) Washington loses but covers. Cincinnati at Jacksonville (-3) I don’t like this game. We haven’t seen Cincy play a good team yet. I think Jacksonville pulls the upset of the week. Pittsburgh at San Diego (-3) Ben is, what, 17-1 in the regular season? The Chargers are home and a playoff team, but I like the Steelers defense and see Hines Ward roughing up the weak SD secondary. ---
**Author:** ![BabaBooey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/dfb087/32.png) [@BabaBooey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BabaBooey)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2005, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/18 "2005-10-09T16:56:55Z")
Oh, and triple parlay of the week: Baltimore, TB and Carolina. ---
**Author:** ![zamboniracer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9a140/32.png) [@zamboniracer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zamboniracer)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2005, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/19 "2005-10-09T17:36:07Z")
Just out of curiosity, how accurate have the previous weeks’ picks been? ie, how much money have you put down, and how much have you won/lost YTD Omni? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![duffer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duffer/32/1026_2.png) [@duffer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/duffer)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2005, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/20 "2005-10-09T17:47:17Z")
Dammit!!! I was going to lay $200 on the Pack to cover and the damn server was down. The first win of the year (Yep, I’m calling it right now) will only slightly make up for the money lost. :smack: :mad: :eek: :smack: self- :wally [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242.md?page=2)