# NFL Predictions - Week 5 (Bargaining) **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 7, 2005, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242 "2005-10-07T21:33:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2005, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/21 "2005-10-09T21:42:20Z")
Man, what the heck is Philly doing? I feel bad for anyone who put money on the Eagles. Amusing play line of the day: 2-9-DEN 19 (2:00) M.Brunell pass incomplete. Officials Review of play Play Challenged by Review Assistant and REVERSED. M.Brunell up the middle to DEN 18 for 1 yard. PENALTY on WAS-M.Brunell, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 18. ---
**Author:** ![soulmurk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b782af/32.png) [@soulmurk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/soulmurk)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2005, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/22 "2005-10-09T21:49:57Z")
> [@asterion](#): > > Amusing play line of the day: > 2-9-DEN 19 (2:00) M.Brunell pass incomplete. Officials Review of play Play Challenged by Review Assistant and REVERSED. M.Brunell up the middle to DEN 18 for 1 yard. PENALTY on WAS-M.Brunell, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 18. I’m still trying to figure that one out. ---
**Author:** ![Kiros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/439d5e/32.png) [@Kiros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kiros)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2005, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/23 "2005-10-09T23:30:08Z")
> [@Kiros](#): > > **New England, Denver, Tennessee, Buffalo, San Diego** Apparently I’d be better of if I _were_ a compulsive gambler. If any of you have the power to arrange these things, I’d like at least eleven (fantasy) points worth of kicking from Shayne Graham tonight. Thanks! ---
**Author:** ![Kiros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/439d5e/32.png) [@Kiros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kiros)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2005, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/24 "2005-10-10T00:24:08Z")
And, of course, right after my last post the Skins scored the late touch and blew the conversion to cover. Ah, well, 3-1 for today still wasn’t that bad - better than I thought I’d do, certainly. ---
**Author:** ![soulmurk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b782af/32.png) [@soulmurk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/soulmurk)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2005, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/25 "2005-10-10T00:44:52Z")
Speaking of the Skins game (I still don’t get why they air the Philly/Dallas game here when Denver is closer by about 500 miles), I was keeping an eye on the game via [NFL.com](http://NFL.com)’s very lame play-by-play program, and have been wondering what happened on the muffed kick by Denver. [NFL.com](http://NFL.com) showed that Denver muffed (sic) the catch and that Wash recovered, but the next update had Denver with the ball and driving. I’m going to catch crap from my Bronco’s fan boss tomorrow too. This blows. If it weren’t for 2 completely unprecedented runs (unless you count that 34 yard scamper by Alexander last week… but, shut up) allowed by the Skin’s defense, the game would have been very different. Minus those 80+ yards, Denver didn’t even manage to gain 200 yards, and got less than 100 out of Plummer. Blocked kick and a missed 2-point conversion. /sigh ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2005, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/26 "2005-10-10T02:42:26Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > To get it on record, and to give you folks a little time to adjust your wagers I’ll throw my Pick 5 out there now. > > **Atlanta, Indy, Cincy, Philly, Tampa** > > Yes, thats 4 road teams… I really wish you’d quit cursing my team. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2005, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/27 "2005-10-10T05:49:46Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > I really wish you’d quit cursing my team. Dude, I’m the grim fucking reaper for many many teams this year. ---
**Author:** ![MysteryFellow63427](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a88e4f/32.png) [@MysteryFellow63427](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MysteryFellow63427)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2005, 6:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/28 "2005-10-10T06:27:25Z")
> [@soulmurk](#): > > Blocked kick and a missed 2-point conversion. /sigh Yeah, we had the game completely in our grasp. Also, there was a 54 yard FG at the end of the first half that was called back because of a false start. Rather than attempt a 59 yarder, Gibbs opted to put Brunell back on the field for a hail mary. If that kick had stood, or we hadn’t had the other one blocked, the Redskins would have won. Or if that safety in the end zone had been upheld (@#$@# “tuck” rule. I HATE THAT DAMN RULE.) Looks like I went 8-5 against the spread today. Not too shabby. Too lazy to compute the over / under. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2005, 11:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/29 "2005-10-10T11:41:18Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Dude, I’m the grim fucking reaper for many many teams this year. What’ll it take to get you to pick against the Bucs for the remainder of the season? Also, has anyone tallied how the spread picks went this week? ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2005, 11:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/30 "2005-10-10T11:47:14Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > I really wish you’d quit cursing my team. No doubt. Right about now, I’m loving the fact that he holds the New York market in such contempt. I’ve clinched positive money for the week, but many loose ends are waiting to be tied up with tonight’s game, so no wrap up just yet. I did want to crow about one thing: Ignoring over/unders, (where I went 1-5,) I went 10-0 against the spread on Sunday! Undefeated in picking teams through the night game…that may be a lifetime first. Oh yeah, and lest I forget, the spread picker went 5-2 this week, which isn’t as impressive as 9-2 last week, but still solid. 14-4 so far on the season. ---
**Author:** ![Trunk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/87869e/32.png) [@Trunk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trunk)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2005, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/31 "2005-10-10T13:07:28Z")
> [@Ellis Dee](#): > > Oh yeah, and lest I forget, the spread picker went 5-2 this week, which isn’t as impressive as 9-2 last week, but still solid. 14-4 so far on the season. I had it at 4-3. It gave NE W Bills W Ravens L Houston L Cowboys W Rams L Jets W You have something different? ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2005, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/32 "2005-10-10T13:14:48Z")
> [@Trunk](#): > > I had it at 4-3. It gave > > NE W > Bills W > Ravens L > Houston L > Cowboys W > Rams L > Jets W > > You have something different? hehheh, the Houston _Texans_ failed to cover; the Houston _Oilers_, OTOH, covered quite nicely. (Tennessee Titans, just for clarity’s sake, was a winning pick, whereas Houston was not a pick at all.) I find it interesting that of the four total losses this season, two of them were Rams picks. ---
**Author:** ![Trunk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/87869e/32.png) [@Trunk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trunk)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2005, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/33 "2005-10-10T13:21:28Z")
> [@Ellis Dee](#): > > hehheh, the Houston _Texans_ failed to cover; the Houston _Oilers_, OTOH, covered quite nicely. (Tennessee Titans, just for clarity’s sake, was a winning pick, whereas Houston was not a pick at all.) > > I find it interesting that of the four total losses this season, two of them were Rams picks. Houston was 1-2 ATS going into this week. Titans were 2-2. That makes Houston the pick. [Link](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=6649310&postcount=36) ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2005, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/34 "2005-10-10T13:29:25Z")
Looking back at last week’s thread to see if the other spread picker loss was the Ravens, (it wasn’t – the Vikings were the other loser,) I noticed **cricetus** ’s picks at the end of the thread. He’s not participated in this one, likely because he is busy looking at foliage, but I thought I’d pull them up because he actually did pretty well: > [@cricetus](#): > > Which means I’ll get 10 wrong this week. Regression to the mean is a bitch. Here are my picks: Lions, Jets, Bills, Titans, Browns, Pats, Pack, Rams, Colts, Broncos, Panthers, Eagles, Bengals, and Chargers. Colors depicting wins and losses added by me. So he’s 9-4 going into the MNF game, which ain’t too shabby. Also, a final note: I was not 10-0 picking games; I picked the Bears, who did not cover. (I misread my sheet, mistaking the total points [30] for their score, which was only 10.) ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2005, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/35 "2005-10-10T13:32:50Z")
> [@Trunk](#): > > Houston was 1-2 ATS going into this week. > > Titans were 2-2. > > That makes Houston the pick. > > [Link](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=6649310&postcount=36) Oh, sure, bring facts into it. I guess I know what I was thinking when I listed that upthread as a Titans pick. Yep, you are indeed correct: 4-3 this week. My bad. I’ll correct it in the roundup after tonight’s game. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2005, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/36 "2005-10-11T05:01:31Z")
Well, I made a _slight_ improvement this week. Very very slight. Went a whopping 6-8 against the spread and an impressive 11-3 versus the O/U. Of course I fell back to earth with a 1-4 in the pick 5. This brings my grand total to 29-43-1 against the spreads, 22-18 versus the O/U, and 12-23 in the pick 5. My percentages look like the back of a baseball players card. At least I’m above the Mendoza line. Lots of big injuries this week. Lost Deuce McAllister from my money league, and Big Ben went down tonight with an injury that looked very ACL-ish. Najeh Davenports stint in the starting lineup was successful but short due to a broken ankle. Detroit lost 4 WRs in that game, though none are serious. Derrick Blaylock is done for the year as are a pair of Altanta defenders. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2005, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/37 "2005-10-11T13:27:22Z")
_Early Games_ _20_ \*\*BROWNS…3…\*\*_10_ \*\*Bears…\*\*_30_ \*\*36…\*\*_Bears cover, and keep it under._ _52_ \*\*PACKERS…3…\*\*_3_ \*\*Saints…\*\*_55_ \*\*41…\*\*_Packers bust out big, but it stays under._ _12_ \*\*Bucs…3½.\*\*_14_ \*\*JETS…\*\*_26_ \*\*31½…\*\*_Go Jets! Vinny plays well, covering the over._ _31_ \*\*RAMS…3…\*\*_37_ \*\*Seahawks.\*\*_68_ \*\*49½…\*\*_Seahawks get revenge for the 0-3 last year. Under._ _28_ \*\*FALCONS…2½.\*\*_31_ \*\*Patriots.\*\*_59_ \*\*43½…\*\*_Vick goes down and the Pats win outright._ _20_ \*\*BILLS…2½.\*\*_14_ \*\*Dolphins.\*\*_34_ \*\*33½…\*\*_SUCKER BET! RUN AWAY!!!_ _35_ \*\*LIONS…1…\*\*_17_ \*\*Ravens…\*\*_52_ \*\*33…\*\*_Nothing looks good about this game. Nothing._ _20_ \*\*TEXANS…3…\*\*_31_ \*\*Titans…\*\*_51_ \*\*40½…\*\*_Titans cover, along with the over._ _Late Games_ _28_ \*\*Colts…15…\*\*_3_ \*\*49ERS…\*\*_31_ \*\*46½…\*\*_Rookie gets first start? Colts should cover._ _24_ \*\*Panthers…2½.\*\*_20_ \*\*CARDS…\*\*_44_ \*\*43…\*\*_Home team underdogs scare me. Bet the over._ _10_ \*\*Eagles…3…\*\*_33_ \*\*COWBOYS…\*\*_43_ \*\*44½…\*\*_Cowboys in the upset. Way over._ _21_ \*\*BRONCOS…6½.\*\*_19_ \*\*Redskins.\*\*_40_ \*\*35…\*\*_Redskins keep it close but lose._ _Night Games_ _23_ \*\*JAGUARS…2½.\*\*_20_ \*\*Bengals…\*\*_43_ \*\*37…\*\*_Jags too much for fading Bengals. Over._ _22_ \*\*CHARGERS…3…\*\*_24_ \*\*Steelers.\*\*_46_ \*\*45…\*\*_Chargers are on fire. Points look like a push._ Spread Picker Picks 3 Bills **WIN** 2 Cowboys **WIN** 2 Jets **WIN** 2 Pats **WIN** 2 Rams _Loss_ 2 Ravens _Loss_ 1 Texans _Loss_ (incorrectly listed as Titans in picks post) The spread picker may have had a winning record at 4-3, but it was my gut picks that really shined this week. 7-4 in the early games, 4-1 in the afternoon, and 2-1 in the night games, for a combined 13-6 on the week. You have to make your money on the weeks that go your way…let’s see if I managed to do that. Early Games Risk 30 for 60 on the **Jets & the Over** Risk 30 for 125 on the: **Bills, Pats, & Ravens** Why am I down 60 instead of up 30? Because the Jets stay true to their “we can’t draft our way out of a paper bag” form and select the worst kicker ever with their first pick in the draft. Just pathetic. 7-4 in the early games, and I lose every bet. Late Games Risk 55 for 50 on a tease: **Colts** giving 7, **Cowboys** getting 11, **Redskins** getting 14½ The problem with teases, which I remembered around 6:30pm Sunday night, is that whenever I win them, I would have also won it as a straight up parlay. Winning 50 is nice and all, but when it _should_ have been 250, it’s incredibly annoying. And when a three team pick loses, it’s more often than not by a single team getting blown out, which a tease wouldn’t have helped. (See the Ravens in the early triple parlay.) _sigh_ Anyway, down 10 for the week so far. Sunday Night Risk 30 for 60 on the **Jags & the Over** This one could be seen coming up the block; the Jags had simply been playing much better than the Bengals, and the over/under was in the thirties. With the added 60, now up 50 for the week. Monday Night Risk 30 for 60 on the **Chargers & the Over** I was torn between the parlay and just a straight bet on the Chargers. Turns out it was a moot point. Monday night takes the edge off the winnings, but I remain up 20 for the week. Hey, stop laughing at me, this is the first winning week I’ve posted, so I’m happy about it. [post=6649310]Standings[/post] This week: 13-6, +20 Season: 32-40, -175 Spread Picker: 13-5 ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2005, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242/38 "2005-10-14T16:41:31Z")
Forgot to update the standings against the spread, and since there is no new thread yet, _cough_, I thought I’d put it here: 4-1 Jags 3-1 Browns 3-1 Giants 3-1 Lions 3-1 Redskins 3-1 Steelers 3-2 Bengals 3-2 Colts 3-2 Falcons 3-2 Packers 3-2 Patriots 3-2 Seahawks 3-2 Titans 2-2 Bears 2-2-1 Broncos 2-2-1 Chargers 2-2 Chiefs 2-2 Dolphins 2-2 Raiders 2-3 Bills 2-3 Bucs 2-3 Cowboys 2-3 Eagles 2-3 49ers 2-3 Jets 2-3 Panthers 2-3 Saints 1-3 Ravens 1-3 Texans 1-3 Vikings 1-4 Cards 1-4 Rams [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-5-bargaining/325242.md?page=1)