# NFL Predictions - Week 6 (Where Fred Smoot is planning my weekend) **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 14, 2005, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288 "2005-10-14T22:11:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2005, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/21 "2005-10-17T23:19:30Z")
When they showed a pic of Jake “the Snake” Plummer during the late game yesterday, I couldn’t help but notice that he’s sporting a 70s pornstar moustache. That lip caterpillar has _gotta_ scare the hell out of the competition. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2005, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/22 "2005-10-18T02:18:24Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > When they showed a pic of Jake “the Snake” Plummer during the late game yesterday, I couldn’t help but notice that he’s sporting a 70s pornstar moustache. That lip caterpillar has _gotta_ scare the hell out of the competition. He’s sporting a complete Grizzly Adams bread and stache, doesn’t that trump any and all Pornstacheness? ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2005, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/23 "2005-10-18T02:31:29Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > He’s sporting a complete Grizzly Adams bread and stache, doesn’t that trump any and all Pornstacheness? In the picture, maybe it was taken preseason, it was [just the moustache](http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/1003). ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2005, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/24 "2005-10-18T03:11:22Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > In the picture, maybe it was taken preseason, it was [just the moustache](http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/1003). Ah, I see. Yeah, now he’s let it go since that pic was taken and now has a full-on Ricky Williams-esque piles of slop for a beard. No shaping or trimming has been done. Here’s a [pretty nifty look at it](http://www.ladamania.com/blog/pics/jakebeard2.jpg) more recently. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2005, 6:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/25 "2005-10-18T06:33:26Z")
_Early Games_ _16_ \*\*COWBOYS…3½.\*\*_13_ \*\*Giants…\*\*_29_ \*\*47…\*\*_Giants, of course, and bet the 401k on the OVER._ _20_ \*\*LIONS…1…\*\*_21_ \*\*Panthers.\*\*_41_ \*\*41½…\*\*_Panthers need this win._ _34_ \*\*Falcons…5½.\*\*_31_ \*\*SAINTS…\*\*_65_ \*\*43½…\*\*_Even with Vick, the Falcons should cover this. Under._ _28_ \*\*BEARS…3…\*\*_3_ \*\*Vikings…\*\*_31_ \*\*37½…\*\*_No clue._ _28_ \*\*CHIEFS…5½.\*\*_21_ \*\*Redskins.\*\*_49_ \*\*43…\*\*_Redskins cover, and may win outright. Over._ _31_ \*\*Bengals…3…\*\*_23_ \*\*TITANS…\*\*_54_ \*\*45…\*\*_Chad stops crying w/the win, but Titans cover. Over._ _17_ \*\*STEELERS…3…\*\*_23_ \*\*Jaguars…\*\*_40_ \*\*34…\*\*_Steelers and the over._ _16_ \*\*RAVENS…6…\*\*_3_ \*\*Browns…\*\*_19_ \*\*34½…\*\*_Browns win outright, but it stays under._ _27_ \*\*BUCS…4½.\*\*_13_ \*\*Dolphins.\*\*_40_ \*\*35…\*\*_Dolphins expose the Bucs. Over._ _Late Games_ _28_ \*\*BRONCOS…3…\*\*_20_ \*\*Patriots.\*\*_48_ \*\*47…\*\*_Patriots keep it rolling. Under._ _27_ \*\*BILLS…3…\*\*_17_ \*\*Jets…\*\*_44_ \*\*32½…\*\*_Jets have the better veteran QB. Over._ _27_ \*\*Chargers…2…\*\*_14_ \*\*RAIDERS…\*\*_41_ \*\*50½…\*\*_I like all four bets, which is never a good sign._ _Night Games_ _42_ \*\*SEAHAWKS…9…\*\*_10_ \*\*Texans…\*\*_52_ \*\*46…\*\*_Seahawks and the under. How bad are the Texans?_ _45_ \*\*COLTS…13½.\*\*_28_ \*\*Rams…\*\*_73_ \*\*51½…\*\*_Rams run without Martz, so bet the under._ Spread Picker Picks 4 Rams _Loss_ 4 Ravens **WIN** 3 Cowboys _Loss_ 3 Panthers **WIN** 3 Texans _Loss_ 2 Chiefs **WIN** 2 Saints **WIN** 2 Vikings _Loss_ 1 Broncos **WIN** 1 Bucs **WIN** 1 Steelers _Loss_ So let’s see, I went 7-8 in the early games, 1-3 in the afternoon, and 1-3 in the night games, for a combined record of 9-14. That doesn’t look promising. Spread picker kept it’s head above water going 6-5 for the week. Let’s see how I did: Early Games Risk 110 for 100 on the **Over: Giants @ Cowboys** Boy, good thing I didn’t lightning the over, eh? Ouch. Down 110 early. Late Games If down 110, risk 55 for 120 on the **Jets & Pats** , or else Risk 30 for 60 on the **Jets & Pats** Nothing like chasing bad bets with good money. Down 165 and counting. Sunday Night Risk 30 for 60 on the **Seahawks & the Under** Down 195, and hoping not to go over the 200 stop loss limit. Monday Night Risk 30 for 60 on the **Rams & the Under** Doh! Down 225 for the day. That’s pathetic. [post=6673256]Standings[/post] This week: 9-14, -225 Season: 41-54, -400 Spread Picker: 19-10 Against the Spread 5-1 Jags 4-1 Giants 4-2 Bengals 4-2 Colts 4-2 Seahawks 3-2 Bears 3-2-1 Broncos 3-2 Browns 3-2-1 Chargers 3-2 Chiefs 3-2 Lions 3-2 Packers 3-2 Redskins 3-2 Steelers 3-3 Bills 3-3 Bucs 3-3 Falcons 3-3 Panthers 3-3 Patriots 3-3 Saints 3-3 Titans 2-3 Dolphins 2-3 Eagles 2-3 49ers 2-3 Raiders 2-3 Ravens 2-4 Cowboys 2-4 Jets 1-4 Cards 1-4 Texans 1-4 Vikings 1-5 Rams ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2005, 7:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/26 "2005-10-18T07:27:56Z")
Here’s the recap. Went 8-6 ATS and 6-8 vs. the O/U, a reasonable 3-2 in the Pick 5. All in all it’s a proud week after the previous 5. This nudges the running total up to 37-49 ATS, 28-26 on the O/U and 15-25 on OMNI picks. I should be ashamed that this week with a truly mediocre performance is a high point, but I’ll take what I can get. So far I’ve had three weeks (1,2 & 6) with .500 results, and 3 really awful weeks. I guess an optomist would say there’s still room to salvage the season. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2005, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/27 "2005-10-18T14:26:08Z")
Not bad… I finish at SU 11-3, ATS 9-5, O/U 7-7. I guess I’ve got work to do on the Over/Under. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/28 "2005-10-19T01:11:59Z")
FYI, looks like we’ll be without Griese, for better or worse, for the remainder of the season. It’s reported we’ve traded a conditional draft pick for Tim Rattay. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/29 "2005-10-19T01:20:52Z")
When I heard about the AJ Feeley move and the Greise diagnosis, I thought the Bucs should have made a run at Phillip Rivers. It’d cost 'em probably a 1st and 3rd rounder, or maybe a defensive starter, but I think it’d have been a wise trade. In any case the Chargers would probably get more from a midseason move than a off season move when the market gets flooded by college players and FAs. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/30 "2005-10-19T01:37:13Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > When I heard about the AJ Feeley move and the Greise diagnosis, I thought the Bucs should have made a run at Phillip Rivers. It’d cost 'em probably a 1st and 3rd rounder, or maybe a defensive starter, but I think it’d have been a wise trade. In any case the Chargers would probably get more from a midseason move than a off season move when the market gets flooded by college players and FAs. I think that the problem there is that Rattay is a known (if not overly exciting) quantity, who can step in and play fairly quickly (I don’t know how similar the 49ers scheme is to ours). Rivers is unknown, unproven, and with a potentially steep learning curve. We have a young Simms and a very young McNown, and they needed a veteran. Rattay, sucky as he can be, has had his moments. Gruden and Allen probably rationalized those a bit (kid’s on a sucky team, how much can you expect). Ideally whoever are QB is will hand the ball off to an RB, control the clock, and let our defense keep us in the game. At 5-1 even going .500 for the rest of the season gets you in the playoffs, and anything better than that puts you in a decent position to challenge for the division title. Tough division, though, and I think 12-4 or better wins it. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/31 "2005-10-19T01:48:04Z")
That analysis is totally correct, but many people (me included) think that Rivers might be a difference making QB. While true that his learning curve could be steep, it’ll certainly be infinately less steep than a rookie next year (possibly less steep than Simms right now). Hell, Rivers next season will be a better option than Leinart in the very short term. It all comes down to how high a value you place on Rivers’ long term potential, if you were one of the teams who pegged him as a potential stud, and how important you think the rest of this season is. IMHO the Bucs are rat fucked for the rest of this year with a Rattay/Simms combo, I suspect they’ll be having a very Bears-like next few seasons if they spand pat at QB. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/32 "2005-10-19T01:56:12Z")
That might be the logical longview, but the real deal is that Gruden needs to put up or he’s out of town after this season. He can’t afford to develop Rivers. Also the Bucs are a relatively old team, probably moreso on defense, and may not be much in a year or two regardless. They’re offensive line is a patchwork, which makes Cadillac’s accomplishments all the more remarkable – he makes the offensive line look good when he’s out there - which might serve to get a couple of more QBs injured. For what it’s worth, I thought that Zack Thomas’ play that got Griese hurt was probably a little intentional. Not trying to hurt him, mind you, but rolling through to try and take down Griese. The announcers played it up more like Michael Pittman somehow flung Thomas into the backfield. Very unlucky turn of events for Griese. FWIW, Simms has looked serviceable some of the time. He was the starter last year when he got hurt and lost his job to Griese who played well in relief. Maybe he’ll surprise us. He did well Sunday after his first series, where he looked a bit lost. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/33 "2005-10-19T02:10:36Z")
Certainly you could be right, but I’m making the leap of faith that Rivers needs little if any skills development at this point compared to their other options. I think Rattay and Rivers are a wash from a learning curve standpoint (with Grudens tricky lingo and schemes) and Rivers is a huge upgrade physically from Simms. Based on that logic I think Rivers would give them a better chance _this season_ than the other options. Of course I could be totally wrong. But, if by the end of this year neither Simms or Rattay appear to be the answer I think it’ll be a missed opportunity. Worst case scenario, Rivers gets 11 weeks to aclimate to the system that he or an incoming FA/rookie won’t have at the start of next year. This of course all presumes that Simms and Rattay will never be successful starting QBs. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/34 "2005-10-19T02:47:45Z")
It’s certainly an interesting theory. But the other problem may have been cap money. I don’t think that TB has any cap room to speak of, and I have to imagine that Rivers would be a very sizeable cap hit. Of course, I’m no expert… ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/35 "2005-10-19T03:23:31Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > It’s certainly an interesting theory. But the other problem may have been cap money. I don’t think that TB has any cap room to speak of, and I have to imagine that Rivers would be a very sizeable cap hit. Of course, I’m no expert… Neither am I, but there’s always _something_ you can do. His big signing bonus wouldn’t come over to a new team, so it’d just be a matter of restructuring his current year’s salary to under 2 million or so. That’s not unworkable. But I’m surprised to see **Omni** ’s confidence in Rivers’ learning curve. You think his time on the bench has erased the curve, ala Pennington/Brady? I think he’ll go through just as much trouble as Losman is now and Eli did last year. Unless you have Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress and Antwan Randle El to throw to in the few snaps you don’t hand off to the leagues #1 rushing attack, I just don’t see how he’ll be able to avoid struggling like everybody else. Especially if he gets traded; Pennington and Brady were able step in and deliver immediately after learning the system for a year or two first. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/36 "2005-10-19T03:23:15Z")
Yeah, I assumed that there’d be cap ramifications there, I thought that perhaps moving a active roster guy on defense along with a draft pick might make it workable, but of course there’s no way us laymen know the ins and outs of the two teams needs. I’d be surprised to learn that the Bucs management didn’t have this same discussion. The big thing to me was that the Chargers staff had a tough time deciding between Brees and Rivers this preseason. Both guys were neck and neck, and based on how well Brees has been playing Rivers most likely has the chops. Think the Bears can somehow move Benson for Rivers? Maybe a 3-teamer. A man can dream… ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/37 "2005-10-19T03:35:40Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > We have a young Simms and a very young McNown, and they needed a veteran. Being a Bears fan I couldn’t let this slide, it’s McCown, not McNown unless you guys have given Cade a new lease on life. Hehe, how I wish that were true for comedy’s sake. Also, **Ellis Dee** , as you see in our simulpost my confidence in Rivers has a lot to do with how competitive the preseaon was versus Brees. I think his time on the bench was a little more profitable than Losman’s, and I think you might be selling Eli a little short. Last year Eli played poorly as a rookie, but did show some flashes at the end of last year. I’m putting Rivers only a short step behind Eli in development, and based on his year two numbers I think any team would be thrilled to have a guy like Rivers match it by 75%. Its definately no certainty, but I think it’s fair to give Rivers a reasonable chance to be closer to Eli than to Rattay by week 10 were he to start now. Of course I think the Gruden system and talent like Williams, Pittman, Galloway and Clayton (not to mention a bitchin Defense) would make him more similar to Eli/Brady/Big Ben/Palmer (though not quite) than to Losman/Carr/Harrington. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 11:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/38 "2005-10-19T11:32:30Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Being a Bears fan I couldn’t let this slide, it’s McCown, not McNown unless you guys have given Cade a new lease on life. Hehe, how I wish that were true for comedy’s sake. Do you mean those guys _aren’t_ related? Awesome? [Luke McCown](http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/493008) [Josh McCown](http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302085) [Cade McNown](http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/133362) But… > [@](#): > > As for the kid receivers, rookie J.R. Russell somehow managed to get three penalties on one play – one illegal motion and two holdings. But he caught two balls. And fellow rookie Paris Warren made a nice grab and run for a 45-yard touchdown from [Luke McNown](http://tampatrib.com/Sports/columns/MGBQZF1SMCE.html). Rookie tight end Alex Smith threw a crunching block to spring Warren and caught the two-point conversion. > > The Bucs looked ready to win until McNown threw a late pick. Gruden pointed to a bad route run by a receiver. He thinks it might have been Keyshawn. > > But Ruud turned heads at linebacker. The second-round draft pick has been overshadowed by Cadillac, but has made his mark. It wasn’t his six tackles Saturday, five solo. He didn’t wait for the play. He found it. And isn’t that what real players are all about. A presence. Ruud and Cadillac bursting through the mothballs was a good night all by itself. > [@](#): > > The Browns return to practice and prepare for New England under interim head coach Terry Robiskie. Rookie [Luke McNown](http://www.cleveland.com/weblogs/print.ssf?/mtlogs/cleve_plaindealer/archives/print042353.html) will start at quarterback against the Patriots. At least ten pages of hits on Google for [Luke McNown](http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&q=Luke+McNown&btnG=Search). ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/39 "2005-10-19T21:12:42Z")
Apparently you’ve got company, heh. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2005, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288/40 "2005-10-19T22:07:04Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Apparently you’ve got company, heh. It’s probably where I got the mistake from in the first place. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-6-where-fred-smoot-is-planning-my-weekend/326288.md?page=3)