# NFL Predictions - Week 7 (Zygi Wilf and his four-letter words) **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 20, 2005, 10:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-7-zygi-wilf-and-his-four-letter-words/327055 "2005-10-20T10:13:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 5\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Kiros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/439d5e/32.png) [@Kiros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kiros)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2005, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-7-zygi-wilf-and-his-four-letter-words/327055/21 "2005-10-23T16:27:19Z")
The word is out that we’re going to have a Jeff Garcia sighting for the Lions today, which throws that game into doubt, for me at least. Was definitely going to put it up as a ‘lock’ for the Browns, but I think it’s very possible now that the switch will give Detroit a boost, at least for the one week. Through two weeks of picking five (throwing one’s self into the fire to give one’s self the right to comment, as it were), I’m sitting at 7-3. A quick perusal of this week’s games gives me: **Rams, Packers, Redskins, Colts, Falcons** Though I wasted probably the tastiest pick of the week (the Chiefs) by not getting it in 'till right under the deadline, of course. ---
**Author:** ![Kiros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/439d5e/32.png) [@Kiros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kiros)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2005, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-7-zygi-wilf-and-his-four-letter-words/327055/22 "2005-10-23T16:32:09Z")
Torry Holt was just declared out of the Rams/Saints game. In a weird way, I think that might make me even more sure of the pick, because it’ll make the Rams rely more on the RBs and less on the arm of one Jamie Martin; on the other hand, talk about an absolutely brutal hit in my fantasy leagues, which are generally anchored by a Holt/Steve Smith combo at the WR slot, and are now missing both (the top two WRs in a lot of formats) this week due to injury and bye. Ouch. ---
**Author:** ![Kiros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/439d5e/32.png) [@Kiros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kiros)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2005, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-7-zygi-wilf-and-his-four-letter-words/327055/23 "2005-10-23T20:06:32Z")
Edinger from 56 to give Mike Tice some inkling of hope that he won’t be fired in the immediate future… Damn, it’s good. Favre goes crazy and they still lose, go figure. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2005, 7:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-7-zygi-wilf-and-his-four-letter-words/327055/24 "2005-10-25T07:15:40Z")
_Friday Night_ _20_ \*\*DOLPHINS…2…\*\*_30_ \*\*Chiefs…\*\*_50_ \*\*43…\*\*_Chiefs cover the points._ _Early Games_ _28_ \*\*RAMS…3…\*\*_17_ \*\*Saints…\*\*_45_ \*\*47…\*\*_Saints in the upset. The over looks pretty good._ _20_ \*\*Packers…1½.\*\*_23_ \*\*VIKINGS…\*\*_43_ \*\*44…\*\*_Packers, I guess._ _38_ \*\*Colts…15…\*\*_20_ \*\*TEXANS…\*\*_58_ \*\*45…\*\*_Texans keep it close enough at home to cover. Over._ _13_ \*\*BENGALS…1…\*\*_27_ \*\*Steelers.\*\*_40_ \*\*43…\*\*_Ben leads the Steelers back to contention. Over._ _20_ \*\*EAGLES…4…\*\*_17_ \*\*Chargers.\*\*_37_ \*\*47½…\*\*_Chargers run wild on Philly, but it stays under._ _10_ \*\*BROWNS…3…\*\*_13_ \*\*Lions…\*\*_23_ \*\*35…\*\*_Browns and the over. I like them both a lot._ _52_ \*\*REDSKINS…12…\*\*_17_ \*\*49ers…\*\*_69_ \*\*37…\*\*_Twelve?! sigh Redskins and the under._ _Late Games_ _13_ \*\*SEAHAWKS…3…\*\*_10_ \*\*Cowboys…\*\*_23_ \*\*46…\*\*_Cowboys keep it rolling and keep it under._ _38_ \*\*RAIDERS…3…\*\*_17_ \*\*Bills…\*\*_55_ \*\*40…\*\*_Bills may or may not cover, but this game is over._ _10_ \*\*BEARS…1…\*\*_6_ \*\*Ravens…\*\*_16_ \*\*31…\*\*_Bears suck a little less, IMO. Over._ _20_ \*\*CARDS…3…\*\*_10_ \*\*Titans…\*\*_30_ \*\*46…\*\*_Titans get the road win. Under._ _24_ \*\*GIANTS…1½.\*\*_23_ \*\*Broncos…\*\*_47_ \*\*47…\*\*_Giants. G-Men. Jints. Big Blue. Four wins! Under._ _Monday Night_ _27_ \*\*FALCONS…7…\*\*_14_ \*\*Jets…\*\*_41_ \*\*40…\*\*_As much as it pains me, Falcons and the over._ Spread Picker Picks 5 Texans _Loss_ 4 Cowboys (Push) 4 Rams **WIN** 4 Vikings **WIN** 3 Cards **WIN** 2 Broncos **WIN** 2 Dolphins _Loss_ 2 Eagles _Loss_ 2 49ers _Loss_ 2 Jets _Loss_ 2 Ravens _Loss_ 1 Raiders **WIN** 1 Steelers **WIN** Wow, the honeymoon is over for the spread picker, going 6-6-1 for the week, making this the first time it failed to post a winning percentage. I may have to resort to applying a best bets filter to it to see if it helps. Meanwhile, on Sunday I went 5-8 in the early games, 4-5-1 in the late games, and then pulled it out with a 2-0 on MNF, plus the 1-0 for Friday’s matchup makes that 12-13-1 for the week. Surely I have to win a bet somewhere in those 12 wins, right? Early Games Risk 55 for 50 on a tease: **Texans** getting 23, **49ers** getting 20, and the **Chargers** getting 12 Damn 49ers, let up a nickel against Eli to give him his first road win, ya bastards! Like all teasers, this one lost by a single blowout. Of note is that the Indy game was a winner in all 3-team teases, regardless of which team you picked. Love those “tease lock” kind of games. In fact, 9 of the 14 games were tease locks this week. That means that if you were doing a 3-team tease, 23 of the 28 teams playing were winners. So naturally I picked one of the losing 5. Go me. Now down 55… Late Games Risk 55 for 50 on the **Giants** Wow, a half point screwed me. Now down 110. Ouch. Monday Night Risk 30 for 60 on the **Falcons & the Over** Yeah, great, the Jets are awful. The win of 60 helped defray the week, leaving me down 50 net. Not the worst, but I need to be chipping away at the hole I’m in, not digging it deeper. [post=6696653]Standings[/post] This week: 12-13-1, -50 Season: 53-67-1, -450 Spread Picker: 25-16-1 Against the Spread 5-1 Jags 5-2 Colts 4-2 Bears 4-2-1 Broncos 4-2-1 Chargers 4-2 Chiefs 4-2 Giants 4-2 Lions 4-2 Redskins 4-2-1 Seahawks 4-2 Steelers 4-3 Bengals 4-3 Falcons 3-3 Browns 3-3 Bucs 3-3 Packers 3-3 Panthers 3-3 Patriots 3-3 Raiders 3-4 Bills 3-4 Saints 3-4 Titans 2-4 Cards 2-4-1 Cowboys 2-4 Dolphins 2-4 Eagles 2-4 49ers 2-4 Ravens 2-4 Vikings 2-5 Jets 2-5 Rams 1-5 Texans ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2005, 11:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-7-zygi-wilf-and-his-four-letter-words/327055/25 "2005-10-25T11:14:01Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Sunday, Oct. 23 > \*\*ST. LOUIS 3 New Orleans 47 \*\* > Jamie Martin to start, even with the Saints going on the road you have to be pretty nuts to consider picking the Rams this week. I’m going out on a limb to predict that Aaron Brooks finally has a breakout game. And no, thats not just because I’m starting him on my FFL team due to a bye week. > > The pick: **Saints, Under** > > \*\*The Result: Rams 28 - Saints 17 > > Definately isn’t a sure thing, but that botched call by the refs probably screwed me and an awful many others. Anyone else think an argument could be made that the practice of refs tending to let plays play out instead of blowing a whistle for down by contact (which makes a play unreviewable) was partly at blame here? Was the ref unconsiously giving himself a safety net assuming the Saints could always review a play he was uncertain of, forgetting that they were all out? I’m pro-replay, but this certainly was one of those one-in-a-million plays that’ll give opponents something to argue over. I didn’t watch the game so I’m not sure what circumstances Haslett had in which he burned all his timeouts, but it’s safe to say that coaches probably ought to be saving one TO until the 2-minute warning just in case from here on out. Secondly, this play was so obvious that it should have never been missed. He was clearly down, and even if he wasn’t the defender was down-by-contact the moment he hit the ground after stripping it. On the upside, Brooks did indeed have a reasonably solid fantasy game getting me a big win. \*\* > > \*\*Green Bay 1½ MINNESOTA 44 \*\* > This might be the last chance for the Vikings to do something. If they lose this game I think they will all give up on the season and Tice will be canned very soon. They really need this win at home against the hated Pack. As a result you can assume that they will be pulling out all the stops to win this one. Part of me thinks that Favre will have a field day against the Minny D, but he has struggled historically in domes. > > The pick: **Vikings, Over** > > \*\*The Result: Vikings 23 - Packers 20 > > Pretty fair assessment if I say so myself, granted it’s pretty thin praise considering my overall records. Minny found a way to get it done knowing how critical this game was, Favre also did have a big day as I supposed though the pick worked out in a squeaker. Still, with the Pack decimated by injury and a below average team even when healthy the Vikes really shouldn’t get too chesty. This amemic win shouldn’t give any bettors a false sense of confidence going forward.\*\* > > \*\*Indianapolis 15 HOUSTON 45 \*\* > After those Indy/St Louis and Seattle/Houston games last week, I don’t know how anyone could confidently pick the Texans to cover. It just doesn’t add up, home game or not. I might look for some juicy stats to talk me out of this pick later, but right now the gut says pretty definitively that this is a no-brainer. The big question is if the Colts will allow Texas to score at all and/or cover that 45 points all by themselves. > > The pick: **Colts, Under** > > \*\*The Result: Colts 38 - Texans 20 > > Feeling good about my picks so far, I’m starting to at least be reasonably accurate. That kickoff return and 2nd half INT by Manning were the difference between the O/U. Until further notice I’m not betting against big spreads. \*\* > > \*\*CINCINNATI 1 Pittsburgh 43 \*\* > They’re saying that Big Ben is expected to suit up, and the Steelers have shown the ability to win games on the road against good teams. However, the Bengals are simply firing on all cylinders and the Steelers defense hasn’t yet faced what you’d call a scary passing attack, the Pats are pretty good and Brady lit them up for 372 yds. On the flipside, the Bengals haven’t faced too many powerful offenses themselves. The Bears had the best running game and it was pretty effective against the Bengals. In the end, I’m going to side with the healthier team, which is also the home team. > > The pick: **Bengals, Over** > > \*\*The Result: Steelers 27 - Bengals 13 > > I don’t feel too bad about this one, it was a tough game to call. I’m quickly becoming a closet Cincy fan, so I’m more disappointed that they lost as a fan more than as a prospector. In any case, I hedged my bets by benching Carson in favor of Brunell in my $$$ FFL which was a wise move.\*\* > > \*\*PHILADELPHIA 4 San Diego 47½ \*\* > This game is a little tricky. LT is a force of nature and the Eagles couldn’t run against my flag football team. San Diego’s defense is good, but not great, while Philly’s is supposedly one of the best. A closer look at the stats tells a different story with the two defenses being almost equal with Philly playing a weaker schedule. It is a home game for the Eagles and they are coming in off a bye week. It’s a tight game, without a doubt, and should be a excellent one to watch. The key stat for me? The Eagles are ranked 23rd against the run with teams like 49ers & Raiders on the schedule. > > The pick: **Chargers, Under** > > \*\*The Result: Eagles 20 - Chargers 17 > > ```auto > > San Diego Rushing CAR YDS AVG TD LG > D. Brees 1 9 9.0 0 9 > L. Tomlinson 17 7 0.4 0 7 > L. Neal 2 5 2.5 0 5 > Team 20 21 1.1 0 9 > > ``` > > Wow, I’d say Reid coached 'em up in that bye week. Still, I think the Eagles fans should be concerned, this wasn’t an impressive win. Thank you for those points. \*\* > > \*\*MIAMI 2 Kansas City 43 \*\* > I don’t understand this line. KC is the better team in almost every regard. Miami has been a totally different team at home, this is true, but this is a team that lost to the Jets for gods sake. One caveat that makes me hesitate is that KC has struggled to run the ball a little over the last few weeks and the Dolphins are solid against the run. Miami is soft against the run in the red zone however, an area where the Chiefs are one of the best. Take the points. > > The pick: **Chiefs, Over** > > \*\*The Results: Chiefs 30 - Phins 20 > > Our Friday game went as I expected, I’m feeling like the Vikings after this big win. \*\* > > \*\*CLEVELAND 3 Detroit 35 \*\* > Harrington and Garcia are splitting snaps and they go on the road to face an up and down Browns team. The Browns have so far gotten their two wins over the NFC North, and that trend might continue. The Lions offense is pretty beat up, especially at WR. The only way they get a win is if Joey Harrington realizes his back is against the wall and plays like his ass is on fire. I don’t see it happening, but you won’t see me putting money on the Browns any time soon. > > The pick: **Browns, Over** > > \*\*The Result: Lions 13 - Browns 10 > > I have no idea where I would have sided if I’d have known that Garcia was gonna start, still this was a pig of a game either way. Why do I keep forgetting that the Lions have a pretty respectable defense?\*\* > > \*\*WASHINGTON 12 San Francisco 37 \*\* > Well, I’m starting Brunell over Carson Palmer in the FFL this week, so I guess you could say I’m expecting an offensive explosion from the Redskins. However, they haven’t exactly been a juggernaut so there’s certainly a potential for them to stall and let the 49ers cover that spread. The trade of Rattay in a way should make you feel a little safer betting against the 49ers since it’d be a real shock to see Alex Smith go on the road in his 2nd start and get a win. It’s not like the Redskins D sucks either. > > The pick: **Redskins, Under** > > \*\*The Result: Redskins 52 - 49ers 17 > > Yeah, still feeling pretty good about those big spreads. Thank you Mark Brunell. Totally contradicted myself by taking the Under, I’m an idiot.\*\* > > \*\*SEATTLE 3 Dallas 46 \*\* > Difficult one for me, the Seahawks are in the middle of an ugly off the field incident that may or may not have an effect. The Cowboys haven’t quite been the picture of bliss either and they lost a favorite target for Bledsoe and have a banged up backfield. Nonetheless J. Jones should be suiting up and getting the bulk of the snaps again, but the advantage is still with Mr. Alexander. The Seahawks have a depleted WR core still, and Dallas’ D has been playing exceedingly well. When in doubt go with the best player at home. > > The pick: **Seahawks, Under** > > \*\*The Result: Seahawks 13 - Cowboys 10 > > The late scratch of Julius Jones put me within 0.34 points of losing to the winless, last place team in my $$$ FFL, damn you. He’s the second coming of Fred Taylor, you heard it here first. \*\* > > \*\*OAKLAND 3 Buffalo 40 \*\* > Moss is doubtful and that has to change the dynamic of the Oakland attack by big margin. Both teams have been really poor against the run, and it’s never a good idea to wager on a crappy QB on the road. I’m at a loss to understand why Norv Turner keeps getting work, I think you’d be hard pressed to say they played a decent game since that opener against the Pats. However, with the exception of the LT show they’ve been in just about every game. I feel like McGahee could single-handedly dominate this game, but I’m too chicken to hitch my wagon to Kelly Holcomb flying cross country into the Black Hole and getting a W. This one may take more consideration later. > > The pick: **Raiders, Over** > > \*\*The Result: Raiders 38 - Bills 17 > > Probably wise to heed the mantra of previously referenced Bill Simmons, above all else, never bet a crappy QB on the road. Glad I stuck with my gut. Also, there might be a silver lining in that Moss injury, they found they can win by pounding LaMont Jordan when they stick with it. Warrants attention as the season rolls on.\*\* > > \*\*CHICAGO 1 Baltimore 31 \*\* > The Bears have the better defense and the better running game. Even if Orton has another bad game, I still like the Bears chances since the Ravens offense will not score against the Bears D. > > The pick: **Bears, Over** > > \*\*The Result: Bears 10 - Ravens 6 > > Again, what the hell was I thinking with that over? Totally backpedalled on my pick. Was right about the Bears D though, no TDs from Mr Billick’s crew.\*\* > > \*\*ARIZONA 3 Tennessee 46 \*\* > The Titans have lost Drew Bennett and most of their ability to stretch the field. The Cards defense is still pretty competitive, especially at home, and I’m not sure Chris Brown will be enough to outscore a Cardinals passing game that’s been pretty scary at times. To ice the choice the Titans sport the 25th defense in the league. > > The pick: **Cardinals, Over** > > \*\*The Result: Cardinals 20 - Titans 10 > > Well, the final result was right, but there wasn’t much sign of that “scary” Cards offense. Go figure. The Cards are the very definition of one dimensional. Were it not for injuries the Titans probably would have handled them. The Cards D did step up when it needed to though.\*\* > > \*\*N.Y. GIANTS 1½ Denver 47 \*\* > The Cowboys shut down the Giants last week and the Broncos have a better overall defense. This time the game is in Jersey, so a Denver doesn’t have that big advantage, but the way Plummer and Co have been playing should scare **Ellis Dee**. Somehow Shanahan has sorted them out and got his team playing with a bit of a chip on it’s shoulder. The Giants D won’t slow down any aspects of the Denver offense and while Eli will put up decent numbers at home, Plummer will outscore him. > > The pick: **Broncos, Over** > > \*\*The Result: Giants 24 - Broncos 23 > > Whew, close one. Hell of a showing by Eli, the guy certainly seems for real. Wonder what happened to the Broncos D in the 4th quarter there, they were in control for pretty much the whole game. Frankly I think the loss needs to be pinned on Shanahan, he always manages to run the ball all game and then gets away from it when he should be eating clock and moving the chains. I think he has a little Martz in him on occasion. This is one the rare games where the losing team actually covers, a stunningly high proportion of under dogs have either not covered or cover _and_ won outright this season. If I were actually laying real bets more often I’d be working that money line like crazy.\*\* > > Monday, Oct. 24 > **ATLANTA 7 N.Y. Jets 40** > Both NYC teams in primetime this week. Once again Vinny takes his crew on the road against a formidable defense, and once again I see no reason to expect the team to rally. Atlanta is better than Buffalo in every facet and the Bills won by 10 last week, and that was with a unexpectedly big game from Martin. He won’t repeat that against the Falcons defense and I’m smelling a blow out. > > The pick: **Falcons, Over** > > \*\*The Result: Falcons 27 - Jets 14 > > OK, so I’m sitting here at home watching Yahoo’s stat tracker and seeing myself ahead by 10.39 points with my opponent having Warrick Dunn and Brian Finneran left to play, me with no one. How stressed out do you think I was each time the Falcons got inside the 5 yard line knowing that TJ Duckett was out? Thank you Mr Vick. As the Falcons were taking a knee at the 2 minute warning I was sitting comfortably with a .34 point edge. Woohoo! \*\* OK, let’s take a look at the progress made towards the new goal. I went 10-3-1 ATS, finally having a good week. Of course, a 5-8-1 mark vs the O/U gives reason for pause. I flaked out and forgot to post my pick 5 before the games were played, but I figure you all can trust me once again, they were **Indy, Washington, Atlanta, Denver and KC**. Though if you give this 5-0 week an asterisk I won’t hold it against you. So, the new grand totals are: 47-52-2 (46.5%) ATS 33-34-1 on the O/U 20-25 on OMNI picks Of course my math was hosed in the OP here, I actually needed to go 90-78 (before this weeks results) not 88-80. To hit that goal of .500 by week 10 I’ll need to average 9-5, and this weeks 10-3-1 mark certainly is a great first step bringing me from 12 games under .500 to just 5 games. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-7-zygi-wilf-and-his-four-letter-words/327055.md?page=1)