# NFL Predictions - Week 9 (The Ides of Autumn) **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [November 3, 2005, 11:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-9-the-ides-of-autumn/329272 "2005-11-03T11:23:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2005, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-9-the-ides-of-autumn/329272/21 "2005-11-07T12:43:38Z")
12-1 Straight up, 8-4 ATS, 5-7 O/U. I might actually watch the Monday night game this week. Next week we face the Redskins at home. Game is pushed back to 4:15 pm start time, so I assume it’s the Fox afternoon game. Hope we don’t embarass ourselves to badly. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2005, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-9-the-ides-of-autumn/329272/22 "2005-11-07T12:47:24Z")
Lets review this weeks awful results. > [@Omniscient](#): > > Sunday, Nov 6 > \*\*Detroit 1½ MINNESOTA 37 \*\* > Which teams QB situation is worse; the ancient and likely rusty Brad Johnson for the Vikes, or the possibility of a not-so-triumphant return of Harrington for the Lions? There’s still about a 50-50 chance that Garcia starts for the Lions, and if he does you have to like their odds quite a bit. If there was ever any quit in the Vikings (and by most accounts there is) this Culpepper injury is the “abandon ship, every man for himself” call for those guys. As a result, even a Harrington start would still favor the Lions. They’ve got the better defense by a mile, a capable coach and a general sense of purpose. They are healthier offensively and just flat out have better talent, and there’s a chance of Harrington coming out focused and aggressive after getting a unexpected second chance. > > The Pick: **Lions, Over** > > \*\*The Result: Vikes 27 - Lions 14 > > Didn’t see Brad Johnson coming at all. The Lions D did not play well at all, and Harrington sealed it. I can’t imagine him getting any more chances after this season, it’s time to send him packing. Garcia’s not the answer, so it’ll be interesting to see where the Lions look for QB next year. Think they’re wishing they still had McMahon? The Vikes didn’t quit either, and if Brad Juhnson has been hook up to the Juvenation machine, they could be a major threat to the Bears. Burleson may even start cracking my starting fantasy lineup again. \*\* > > \*\*San Diego 6 NY JETS 41 \*\* > There’s no reason for me to keep parroting my opinion on the Jets, you all know where I come from there. I’ll add that the Chargers are the best damn 4-4 I’ve ever seen. If the Falcons go for 208 against the Jets, I’ve got a hunch LT could break out this week. > > The Pick: **Chargers, Under** > > \*\*The Result: Chargers 31 - Jets 26 > > Marty, please please start watching how Dick Vermiel coaches. Dear god there is no damn way the Jets should have had a prayer and it’s entirely Marty’s fault that this game was close at all. The Chargers got 270 yards in the first half on their way to a big lead, they close the game with 114 in the second half. It’s tough to coach with your hands around your neck. He’s the NFL version of Lou Henson, taking great teams and making them good. \*\* > > \*\*CLEVELAND 3 Tennessee 38 \*\* > Screw the damn Browns, I’m done counting on Dilfer to not suck. He’s back into “crappy QB” generalizations. McNair or Volek, I don’t give a damn. Jeff Fisher is gonna find a way to be productive against those candy ass Brownies. I still think Braylon Edwards has the chops, but Dilfer’s not the man to utilize that. Without futher ado, I present you with my third straight road team pick…… > > The Pick: **Titans, Under** > > \*\*The Result: Browns 20 - Titans 14 > > Ugh, what a brutal week this is turning out to be. The Titans had a shot to get this game in the closing minutes and McNair just couldn’t do it. I don’t quite understand why the Titans weren’t able to run the ball better against a tomato can like the Browns D. I’m surprised Fisher hasn’t reverted to meathead ball, just pounding and pounding away. McNair is a good play action QB and they need to use that. Plus, who thought Rueben Droughns would come in this focused and determined? Some cats just thrive in bad times.\*\* > > **KANSAS CITY 4½ Oakland 51½** > Priest is questionable due to a concussion, but I’m betting he’ll play. The guy is pretty tough and I don’t see him sitting out a home game against the hated Raiders. If news changes I might have to revisit this. Similarly Moss also iffy, but I don’t have the same faith in his constitution. The Raiders probably aren’t going to be a factor in the race for the divisional crown, and they know it. The Chiefs however need to see this as a must win game. A game to pull out all the stops, and I bet the do. > > The Pick: **Chiefs, Over** > > \*\*The Result: Chiefs 27 - Raiders 23 > > Damn half a point, couldn’t the Chiefs go for two at the end of teh game just to help us gamblers out? Priest and Roaf were out and I probably should have listen to recent history and flip-flopped. Oh well, the gut always seems to be the deal breaker, however this year my gut is on the verge of jumping off a bridge. Loved what Vermiel did at the end of the game, that’s how you coach 'em up. You always go for it in that situation IMHO, your odds are never better than they are from the 1 yard line. Why take the FG and put your faith in a coin flip? Bravo Dick. \*\* > > \*\*Chicago 3 NEW ORLEANS 34 \*\* > It strikes me as strange that this in only a 3 point spread. I’ll grant you that the Bears offense isn’t dominating and they are on the road, but it’s a stretch to say the Saints have a home field advantage. The Bears D is playing awesome and is the type of force you’d expect to just wreak havoc with the hapless Saints. Plus there’s no Bourbon street factor to hurt them on Saturday night. Is this the week when Turner unleashes Orton? As I picture this game playing out on the NFL Films Yearbook next year, I’m betting the soundtrack is the one from the Benny Hill show. > > The Pick: **Bears, Over** > > \*\*The Result: Bears 20 - Saints 17 > > Did you see that game? There were like 75 people in the stands, crazy considering this is the same stadium that gets packed with 80k+ every Saturday. Methinks San Antonio is the better choice, it’s not as if the Saints fans can or will support them in Baton Rouge. Anyways, I guess a push is a highlight in this weeks picks. Damn, the Bears stress me out, but the scary thing is that these picks are starting to stress me out even more. I have a problem. Interesting side note, there was a locker room interview with Moose Muhammad where the reporter was trying to bait him into critisizing the Bears QB situation. Asking if he’s upset because he hasn’t gotten the same number of opportunities as last season, the reporter was persistant and Moose was a class act all the way. Basically responding, we’re winning, we’re in first place, I couldn’t be happier. Atta boy Moose, you’re going to fit in great here. \*\* > > \*\*Cincinnati 3 BALTIMORE 36 \*\* > I can’t for the life of me understand what the hell happened last week with that Steelers-Ravens game. It scares the crap out of me going into this one. I’ve been on the Bengal bandwagon all season and I really haven’t found too many reasons to question that. They are once again playing an inferior and/or depleted team. Of course, it’s a depleted team that almost beat the team that whipped them a few weeks back. The Steelers struggled to run the ball against the Ravens, and I’m inclined to think that the Bengals will struggle too. Big Ben was injured in the game last week and by most accounts it hurt his play. If that’s a major reason why the Ravens kept it close, you can give the healthy Palmer an egde this week. Both teams will have superb scouting reports and game strategies due to the Lewis history with the Ravens. Also it’s important to note that the Ravens have been good at home and the Bengals have been iffy on the road. This game is a really tricky one to judge, even moreso due to my inherent affection for the Bengals and dislike for the Jailbirds. I guess I’ll just go with it. > > The Pick: \*\*Bengals, Over \*\* > > \*\*The Result: Bengals 21 - Ravens 9 > > And he finally gets off the schneid! I’m inclined to call this game a breakhrough game for the Bengals. While the Ravens aren’t exactly a good team, the Bungles went into a difficult situation and played soild, all around, good football to win decisively. This at least erases any doubts that that Pittsburgh game created. What happened to Chris Perry this week by the way? Think it’s time that Billick got canned? I do, no way he survives into next season. \*\* > \*\*Carolina 1½ TAMPA BAY 36 \*\* > Got hosed last week because I ignored the Gamblers rule which states that you never should bet on a crappy QB on the road…I’d like to redeem myself this week but Little Boy Simms is at home. After crapping down their leg in SF last week I’ve got no faith in them holding serve against a Panther team which seems to be coming together. The meager 1½ point spread seems generous. > > The Pick: **Panthers, Under** > > \*\*The Result: Panthers 34 - Bucs 14 > > How can you not love Steve Smith? The guy’s game is sick, and he plays like his ass is on fire. Just great stuff, and that fencing TD celebration was pretty damn funny. I liked it. Also, what the hell happened to Cadillac Williams? Is he still hurting? He’s got a combined 62 yards in the last 3 games combined. Maybe he’s feeling a little gunshy now, I realize that the Panthers have a really damn good run defense and the Bucs were playing from behind, but this kind of drop-off gives you pause. Check out this quote from Panther Brentson Buckner: “What does being 6-2 mean? It means we can still go 6-10.” You gotta love that mentality. \*\* > > \*\*JACKSONVILLE 13 Houston 36½ \*\* > Well, I got burned by my first big spread last week so I guess I can’t make this game a no-brainer. Ironically the dawg covered _and_ won as seems to be the way of the new NFL, so I suppose that’s of note. The Texans also got off the schneid last week, so perhaps things are looking up. Um, but seriously, the Jags are going to get it done this week. Were it more than 2 TDS I’d probably be more concerned, but I’ll go against the points. > > The Pick: **Jags, Over** > > \*\*The Result: Jags 21 - Texans 14 > > Well damn, where has the Jags offense gone? There was a time when Jimmy Smith was a force to be reckoned with, now he and Leftwich are practically stangers. In other news, Fred Taylor is hurt…hold your surprise please. Looks like it’s high time to take these big spreads seriously again. \*\* > > \*\*Atlanta 1½ MIAMI 40 \*\* > The Dolphins have had something of a goofy schedule. It seems that every road game they’ve played has been against an inferior opponent and every home game has been against a superior one. As a result they’ve been uncommonly difficult to pick this year. The trend continues this week, getting a strong Atlanta team at home. However, it’s an Atlanta team which they seem to match up pretty well against. Their D will give Vick and Dunn plently of trouble, though not shut them down. On the other side the combo of Brown and Williams have had quite a lot of success over the last week or two, and may be able to ball-control the game into their hands. The situation I want to avoid is having to count on Gussy to dodge the Falcon pass rush and connect down field on 3rd and long, scary no? > > The Pick: **Falcons, Over** > > \*\*The Result: Falcons 17 - Dolphins 10 > > So Vick goes 22-for-31 for a season-high 228 yards and a TD and all of a sudden people are calling bullshit on his critics who question his skills as a passer? Um, 228 and a TD is a banner game? Call me when we’re seeing 300 yards games with at least 2 TDs or an offense that does better than 17 points, then we can start calling him a complete QB. Of course, Vick is right about one things, they win games when he plays. And thats all that counts, labels be damned. \*\* > > \*\*NY Giants 10 SAN FRANCISCO 42 \*\* > I did _not_ see that statement game coming from the Giants last week. Seriously impressed. Wished I’d have watched more of it and had been able to judge how clearly it showed the relative abilities of the two teams and how much, if any, of the Giants success was emotionally boosted. I can’t help but think, looking at the two teams previous games, that the Redskins aren’t that bad and the Giants aren’t _that_ good. However you slice it, they still are 10 points better than the 49ers. I‘m chalking last weeks home win as being more about the ineptness of Simms and Cadillac than it was about the SF D and Mr. Dorsey. Still, I bet Frank Gore has a pretty good fantasy day. > > The Pick: **Giants, Over** > > \*\*The Result: Giants 24 - 49ers 6 > > The 49ers managed a whopping 34 offensie plays. Only giving up 24 points when you do that should be considered a victory. I think it’s clear that the 49ers are going to win the Reggie Bush lottery. Houston, New Orleans, Green Bay, need not apply. If I had to guess, Green Bay is going to finish with something like 3 wins, SF won’t win again and it could come down to the final game of the season versus Houston. Pretty solid is unspectacular effort by the Giants who appear to be for real. The biggest surprise to me is that they’ve even got some solid depth. Shockey might be the only unreplacable guy, and he’s quietly having a hell of a season. \*\* > > \*\*Seattle 4 ARIZONA 44 \*\* > OK, I’m getting scared again. I’m picking WAY too many road teams this week and I’m liable to do it all over again here. Were McCown getting the start I might be more apt to like the Cards chances at home, but I just can’t favor them against the force that is Shaun Alexander. Plus it’d be sports bigamy to diminish his chances when he’s the back bone of my SDMB FFL team. The bye week certainly should help the Seahawks a tad, even though they’ve really struggled on the road this season. This game could be a test for them, I think they pass. > > The Pick: **Seahawks, Over** > > \*\*The Result: Seahawks 33 - Cards 19 > > Well, finally I guessed one right without much caveat. In other news, JJ Arrington averaged 8 yards a carry, going 5 for 40 (adding 4 catches for 22 as well). Is it possible he’s not the bust he appeared? Well, I’d take some solace in that fact if he were. It’s clear however that he’ll never be the man-child that Alexander is. Did you see that 88 yard run, he’s got 4 guys on his heels, and without looking at all makes a subtle cut to the right at just the right time to avoid the only tacklers with a shot. Did I mention he never looked, just _felt_ him. Some people were just meant for this. \*\* > > \*\*Pittsburgh 6 GREEN BAY 42 \*\* > Big Ben is out. Thats a huge factor with the Tommy Maddox experience going on the road. I’m no Packer tout, they suck major donkey dick, but you just can never pick Tommy Maddox on the road, especially Lambeau, over Brett Favre. All other factors are moot. > > The Pick: **Packers, Over** > > \*\*The Result: **Steelers 20 - Pack 10** > > It was a very Harrington-like performance by Favre today. Bang up job. Still, take away that fumble return for a TD and the Pack cover the spread in this one, if Driver doesn’t drop that ball for an INT they win the game. Is there a such thing as a moral victory in sports betting?\*\* > > \*\*WASHINGTON 2 Philadelphia 41 \*\* > The wheels are coming off the Eagles. I don’t care about that debacle in the Meadowlands, I’ve been saying for weeks that McNabb and company are grasping at straws. The odd part is that it seems that it has nothing to do with that preseason TO chaos or any ongoing TOishness. Now TO is out of as many as 4 weeks, at least 2, and the Eagles could be sunk. An interesting counterpoint is that without TO the Eagles may be forced to actually try and run the ball. That could be an unknown quantity. If Reid has to take his deMartzing meds and he finds that Westbrook is all the horse he needs if could be big for them. Nonetheless, I think a Kearseless Eagles fall to the Redskins on the road. > > The Pick: **Redskins, Under** > > \*\*The Result: Redskins 17 - Eagles 10 > > McNabb is OVER…rated…OVER…rated. As much as I hate TO, he’s right in that McNabb is bulletproof to critisism. I have no idea why people aren’t piling on this guy, he just doesn’t get it done when the chips are down. It’s certainly not all his fault, but vintage Favre he’s not. The Eagles are finishing this season below .500. Did you hear the news that apparently Hugh Douglas and TO threw punches in the locker room this week after Douglas called TO out for faking hurt. Douglas is a little bitch, but I’ll be damned if I don’t respect this. The rest of the Eagles, both players and staff, are totally pussies for not putting TO in his place long before this. I’m a little surprised that the Eagles locked up Westbrook for 5 years…a guy who’s averaging a whopping 41 yards rushing a game and 3.5 per carry. Do you really pay big money for a glorified 3rd down back? I’d be worried if I were an Eagles fan for the teams long term prospects.\*\* Hmm, go figure, upon review this week wasn’t as awful as it appeared. Doing well in the later games saved my skin, though it’s getting creepy how I tend to never get both the ATS and O/U right, it’s usually one or the other. We’re standing at 6-6-1 ATS and 6-7 vs. the O/U heading into the big MNF game. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2005, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-9-the-ides-of-autumn/329272/23 "2005-11-07T12:49:17Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > Hope we don’t embarass ourselves to badly. With how impressive the Simms-Carnell (he’s no longer Cadillac until he’s playing well again) combo has been, this might be a bit much to ask for. ---
**Author:** ![Omniscient](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omniscient/32/3290_2.png) [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2005, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-9-the-ides-of-autumn/329272/24 "2005-11-07T12:51:12Z")
> [@Omniscient](#): > > Here’s my OMNI picks: **Indy, Washington, Atlanta, Carolina, Chicago** This is a nice bonus though, have a chance at a 4-0-1 week here. Perhaps I’m not as befuddled as one might thing. ---
**Author:** ![Kiros](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/439d5e/32.png) [@Kiros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kiros)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2005, 6:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-9-the-ides-of-autumn/329272/25 "2005-11-08T06:48:21Z")
Well, my earlier assessment was pretty accurate. To deal with the Colts offense, the Pats needed to get a great performance from the D-line (since without Harrison the defensive backfield wasn’t going to be able to deal with the passing game alone), and they needed Seymour for that. They got pressure on Manning precisely once tonight, and they got a pick from it, a classic Manning under-pressure-forcing-it-stupid-throw, complete with the Face and everything. Otherwise, he was basically able to sit back there and do anything he wanted to, as the final score shows. The Pats didn’t really have too much trouble moving the ball - if it wasn’t for that silly Dillon fumble :smack: , we could easily have been looking at something in the 35-28 range for the final score. The last few meetings, the Colts haven’t been able to bring the O. They definitely brought it tonight - with no D-line pressure, there was never a point where you were confident the Colts weren’t going to score, and they kept eating up 20-yard chunks whenever they needed it. My only solace is that there were definitely signs that this team can be beaten in a rematch with some semblance of defensive health (i.e. the Indy defense is very above-average-but-not-great and thus vulnerable); the bad part is that a rematch will be on the fast track, and is thus even more likely to be another shootout. Congrats to the Colts. I still hate you, Peyton. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2005, 9:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-9-the-ides-of-autumn/329272/26 "2005-11-10T09:32:51Z")
_Early Games_ _14_ \*\*Lions…1½.\*\*_27_ \*\*VIKINGS…\*\*_41_ \*\*37…\*\*_Vikings at home, I guess. Over._ _31_ \*\*Chargers…6…\*\*_26_ \*\*JETS…\*\*_57_ \*\*41…\*\*_Jets win outright. First of three upset specials!_ _20_ \*\*BROWNS…3…\*\*_14_ \*\*Titans…\*\*_34_ \*\*38…\*\*_Titans and the over? No clue, really._ _27_ \*\*CHIEFS…4½.\*\*_23_ \*\*Raiders…\*\*_50_ \*\*51½…\*\*_Chiefs too good at home, bet the under._ _21_ \*\*Bengals…3…\*\*_9_ \*\*RAVENS…\*\*_30_ \*\*36…\*\*_Bengals as the Ravens fall back to earth. Under._ _34_ \*\*Panthers…1½.\*\*_14_ \*\*BUCS…\*\*_48_ \*\*36…\*\*_Panthers and the over._ _21_ \*\*JAGUARS…13…\*\*_14_ \*\*Texans…\*\*_35_ \*\*36½…\*\*_Texans cover the points. Way under._ _17_ \*\*Falcons…1½.\*\*_10_ \*\*DOLPHINS.\*\*_27_ \*\*40…\*\*_Falcons get easy win, stays under._ _Late Games_ _20_ \*\*Bears…3…\*\*_17_ \*\*SAINTS…\*\*_37_ \*\*34…\*\*_Saints and the over. (1 point game either way.)_ _24_ \*\*Giants…10…\*\*_6_ \*\*49ERS…\*\*_30_ \*\*42…\*\*_49ers win outright, way over. Upset special #2._ _33_ \*\*Seahawks…4…\*\*_19_ \*\*CARDS…\*\*_52_ \*\*44…\*\*_Seahawks and the over, I guess._ _20_ \*\*Steelers…6…\*\*_10_ \*\*PACKERS…\*\*_30_ \*\*42…\*\*_Packers win outright, over. Upset special #3._ _Night Games_ _17_ \*\*REDSKINS…2…\*\*_10_ \*\*Eagles…\*\*_27_ \*\*41…\*\*_Redskins easily. Over._ _40_ \*\*Colts…3…\*\*_21_ \*\*PATRIOTS.\*\*_61_ \*\*46…\*\*_Pats at home, defense keeps it under._ Spread Picker Picks 6 Jets **WIN** 6 Texans **WIN** 5 Cards _Loss_ 5 Saints (Push) 4 Eagles _Loss_ 4 49ers _Loss_ 4 Patriots _Loss_ 4 Vikings **WIN** 2 Bucs _Loss_ 2 Dolphins _Loss_ 1 Ravens _Loss_ 1 Titans _Loss_ Wow, the spread picker took a 3-8-1 asspounding this week. I, on the other hand, picked pretty well, going 12-3 in the early games, 3-4-1 in the late games, and then the karmic 1-3 in the night games to ensure that any winnings would be lost, for a combined record of 16-10-1. Not bad. Early Games Risk 55 for 50 on a 3-team tease: **Jets** getting 14, **Texans** getting 21, **Vikings** getting 9½. And of course, the winning tease would also have been a winning parlay had I had the balls to play it as such. Oh well, up 50 so far. Late Games Risk 30 for 125 on the **49ers, Packers & the Packers-Steelers Over** Now see, if you’re going to lose a parlay, lose big. Still up 20 going into the night games. Sunday Night Risk 30 for 25 on the **Redskins** Go Redskins, way to hold on at the end. Up 45 with only the MNF game to go. The Patriots own the Colts, right? Monday Night Risk 30 for 60 on the **Pats & the Under** Wow, looks like the Colts could go 18-1, with that 1 of course being at the hands of Peyton’s little brother. Still, this week was a net win of 15! YAY! [post=6751701]Standings[/post] This week: 16-10-1, +15 Season: 79-83-2, -550 (-61 per week) Spread Picker: 35-27-2 Against the Spread 6-2 Colts 6-2 Giants 5-2-1 Bears 5-2-1 Broncos 5-2-1 Seahawks 5-3-1 Chargers 5-3 Falcons 5-3 Jags 5-3 Panthers 5-3 Raiders 5-3 Redskins 5-3 Steelers 5-4 Bengals 4-4 Browns 4-4 Bills 4-4 Chiefs 4-4 Lions 4-4 Packers 3-4-1 Cowboys 3-5 Bucs 3-5 Dolphins 3-5 49ers 3-5 Jets 3-5 Patriots 3-5 Rams 3-5 Ravens 3-5-1 Saints 3-5 Texans 3-5 Vikings 3-6 Titans 2-6 Cards 2-6 Eagles [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-predictions-week-9-the-ides-of-autumn/329272.md?page=1)