# NFL: Underinflated Balls? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [January 21, 2015, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515 "2015-01-21T20:17:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 26
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2015, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/501 "2015-05-11T22:57:49Z")
> [@BlueOhio](#): > > Suspending one of the best QB’s in football unfortunately hands a few wins to some teams. I don’t like that. I’d rather they fined him and the Pats instead of giving the Steelers a win in week 1. The current Steelers are hardly a lock to win, especially with Leveon Bell suspended for that game too. However, the quarterback cheating probably unfairly handed wins to the Patriots. ---
**Author:** ![kidchameleon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/898d66/32.png) [@kidchameleon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kidchameleon)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2015, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/502 "2015-05-11T23:02:16Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > The current Steelers are hardly a lock to win, especially with Leveon Bell suspended for that game too. > > However, the quarterback cheating probably unfairly handed wins to the Patriots. It might increase the odds; the Steelers lost to the Bucs and Texans and could barely hold off the Jaguars and Titans last year. Bad QBs are their kryptonite! ---
**Author:** ![Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulf_the_Unwashed)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2015, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/503 "2015-05-11T23:09:56Z")
Surprised (but pleased) that the NFL had the, um, balls to suspend Brady for four games. I would have expected two at most and wasn’t holding my breath for any at all. Go them. ---
**Author:** ![crypto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b3f665/32.png) [@crypto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crypto)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2015, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/504 "2015-05-11T23:25:16Z")
> [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](#): > > Surprised (but pleased) that the NFL had the, um, balls to suspend Brady for four games. I would have expected two at most and wasn’t holding my breath for any at all. Go them. I think the 4 games were thrown out there to get appealed down to 2. I hope I am wrong, though. If Brady was smart (no indication that he is), he’d just let this go and be the martyr of New England for all-time! I have no love for the Patriots, or Brady… And I absolutely loathe Belicheat. But the way ESPN has been creaming all over this story makes me sick. I honestly can’t figure out how my TV always ends up on that channel. I am part of the problem! :smack: ---
**Author:** ![crypto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b3f665/32.png) [@crypto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crypto)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2015, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/505 "2015-05-11T23:35:39Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > The current Steelers are hardly a lock to win, especially with Leveon Bell suspended for that game too. > > However, the quarterback cheating probably unfairly handed wins to the Patriots. Yeah, I hardly think the Steelers are a lock to win any game… Especially without Bell. The most compelling thing I read about the benefit of the deflated ball was an article that evaluated the league fumbling, and how few fumbles the Patriots have had over the same period as the rest of the league. I’ll see if I can find a link. (Of course, I haven’t been able to post a link for weeks, so if anyone can help, I’d be grateful.). But in a nutshell, the article points out how the number of fumbles the Patriots have committed over the last 5 years or so (can’t recall the exact time frame) is so low it is outside the normal distribution. It is a great study, and really opened my eyes to the benefit that a team could get by using a deflated ball. Especially if the QB prefers it that way. Leave it to the Patriots to bend the rules until they break. I think the interesting thing will be how this crap will impact their legacies. Brady and Belicheat will forever be tied to the cheating scandals, which may not matter to Pats fans, (they have the rings and the Lombardi’s), but it will most likely bother Brady and Belicheat, especially as they age. Their accomplishments will always have the scandals tied to them. Maybe it won’t matter to them… but I think it will. ---
**Author:** ![FuriousGeorge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ecae2f/32.png) [@FuriousGeorge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FuriousGeorge)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/506 "2015-05-12T00:00:14Z")
One thing that comes out of this, I think, is the lesser expectation on the Patriots, as an entire organization. That “pressure” (if you will) that they will come out of the gate guns blazing for the first half of the season (without Brady and as he settles in to the season on his return) to prove that there was no benefit to the cheating. I, also, think they lose some of that expectation of being sort of being invincible that many returning Super Bowl winners experience. The flip side of that because of that loss of expectation is that they come out flat and sorta settle in to a lost season of mediocrity with a "We’ll get 'em next year. " attitude. I guess what I am saying is that it remains to be seen next season how much the overall loss of pressure affects the Pats game. Of course, I should expect that the team (and Brady to a man) will vehemently deny any such loss of pressure. ---
**Author:** ![crypto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b3f665/32.png) [@crypto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crypto)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/507 "2015-05-12T00:34:59Z")
I don’t think the 4 game suspension will hurt the Pats too much, assuming it sticks. They will go 2-2, 1-3 worst case. Two games under 500 in their division at the beginning of the season is nothing. They started 2-2 last year. They are in the worst division in the NFL, and they’ve owned it for what 15 years? They play the Jags (W) Bills, Steelers and Cowboys. The only game I would think they will have a major disadvantage is Dallas. They are playing on the road against a very good team. The Steelers? That’s at home, opening weekend… And the Steelers won’t have Bell for sure. That game is closer, but the Pats will have something to prove. And Belicheat will outcoach Tomlin. The Bills? I will believe it when I see it. Rex Ryan may be building a winner in Buffalo, but that is a division game, and the Patriots almost always take those. So, the schedule isn’t a killer for them. If they can replace all the losses they’ve had on defense, they will be a playoff team again. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/508 "2015-05-12T12:48:23Z")
The Pats were 2-2 to start last season, and panicking fans, and reporters too, were calling for Brady to be benched and for Jimmy Garoppolo to start at QB. Even if the four games stands up (don’t count on it), well, so what? They’ll click at the time of the season they usually click. And they’ll be pissed, too. Belichick usually has to work a little to make the “Nobody respects us, nobody thinks we can do it” standard coach’s bullshit line work. That part of his job will be much easier this season no matter how it plays out. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/509 "2015-05-12T14:02:42Z")
Yeah. Now the only problem will be Tom Brady’s girlish sized hands having to throw a regulation NFL football. ---
**Author:** ![fachverwirrt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/94ad74/32.png) [@fachverwirrt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fachverwirrt)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/510 "2015-05-12T14:48:59Z")
Worked ok in the Super Bowl. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/511 "2015-05-12T15:02:25Z")
> [@fachverwirrt](#): > > Worked ok in the Super Bowl. Then he should have no problems, and he won’t be “acting crazy about balls” and “saying there not good enough” or “felt like bricks.” One wonders why he even bothered to pay off staffers to circumvent rules, since it’s such a non-issue. ---
**Author:** ![fachverwirrt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/94ad74/32.png) [@fachverwirrt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fachverwirrt)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/512 "2015-05-12T15:05:48Z")
Here’s a middle. It’s been feeling excluded. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/513 "2015-05-12T15:23:00Z")
> [@fachverwirrt](#): > > Here’s a middle. It’s been feeling excluded. I love it when someone gets a point made through sarcasm. ---
**Author:** ![crypto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b3f665/32.png) [@crypto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crypto)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/514 "2015-05-12T15:28:09Z")
I will be interested to see the fumble numbers this year. If they have been deflating balls for as long as suspected, the fumbles should return to the league average this year. THAT will make a huge difference in the Patriots season, and it will also show the Patriots have been cheating for a long time. The idea that this is no big deal would be my position if I was a Brady/Pats fan. Because it worked. And quite frankly, it was smart. When you look at the fumble/turnover numbers, that cascades into so much more. Less time on the field for the defense… Less time the offense is working back from a deficit. More time for the offense to stay on the field and grind down the opposing defense. If Brady didn’t need to do it, then why do it? It gave him an edge, even if it was psychological. But I think it was more than that. I think the softer balls made them easier to hold onto for running backs and receivers after they caught a pass, and that is a bigger deal than people currently think. I also think this is why the NFL hammered the Pats organization. They know (or highly suspect) this has been not only going on for years, but was known and condoned by Belichick. They don’t have the smoking gun proof, but they must have been convinced that something was ethically wrong. In the NFL, that seems to be good enough. Time will tell. I am sure there will be a ton of people counting Patriot fumbles this year. If it turns out to make the difference some people are suggesting, it throws another brick on the tainted legacy. Personally, I will be following Patriot fumble statistics this year because I am fascinated that someone came up with a strategy that worked for so long to reduce turnovers via fumbling. Belichick is considered by many to be one of the greatest coaches in NFL history. If that is true, why does he cheat? When people look back at Lombardi’s career (or Noll’s or Landry’s), this never springs to mind. Belichick? What is the first thing most people outside of New England (and even many in New England) think? Cheater. Great cheater, but a cheater. He’ll be remembered just as much for the scandals as the championships. So will Brady. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/515 "2015-05-12T15:29:50Z")
Stevan Ridley is gone. That alone will cut the Pats’ fumble rate next year. ---
**Author:** ![JSexton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/96bed5/32.png) [@JSexton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JSexton)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/516 "2015-05-12T15:31:42Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > I love it when someone gets a point made through sarcasm. Sarcasm! That’s original! ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/517 "2015-05-12T15:49:46Z")
> [@Stink Fish Pot](#): > > Belichick is considered by many to be one of the greatest coaches in NFL history. If that is true, why does he cheat? Does the evidence \*really \*show he’s an outlier? > [@](#): > > He’ll be remembered just as much for the scandals as the championships. > > So will Brady. That was the same reason the Republicans used to get their party’s waverers to vote for impeaching Bill Clinton - that it would give him a historic stain. ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/518 "2015-05-12T16:32:55Z")
> [@Stink Fish Pot](#): > > I will be interested to see the fumble numbers this year. If they have been deflating balls for as long as suspected, the fumbles should return to the league average this year. THAT will make a huge difference in the Patriots season, and it will also show the Patriots have been cheating for a long time. If the Patriots fumble more this year, it won’t show they were cheating. If the Patriots continue to not fumble much, it won’t show they _weren’t_ cheating. If you don’t agree, then you need an explanation for why the Patriots cheated in 2014 and 2012, but not in 2013, and an explanation for why the Saints and Falcons fumble less often than the Patriots do. I don’t know whether the Patriots did what they’re accused of or not, but the fumble stats thing is just a mess. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/519 "2015-05-12T17:23:30Z")
> [@borschevsky](#): > > why the Saints and Falcons fumble less often than the Patriots do. Could be the crappy-weather effect. Or they coach ball control very well down there. > [@](#): > > I don’t know whether the Patriots did what they’re accused of or not, but the fumble stats thing is just a mess. Dropped passes would probably be a less noisy stat to use, if you’re going to believe any at all. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/520 "2015-05-12T17:59:30Z")
First, it seems incontrovertible to me that a less inflated ball would remain more securely in your arms compared to a more inflated ball. Does anyone actually suggest otherwise? That a ball you can deform by squeezing would be easier to grip than one you could not? Secondly, there is now no doubt that the Patriot ball boys were deflating balls. So, why should it be surprising that the Patriots fumble less often than other teams? I agree that there are enough vagaries involved that one year’s worth of data will not be fully compelling. However, I strongly believe that they will fumble less and that the Patriots will return to the fumble rates they showed pre-2007 when measured over multiple years. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515.md?page=25) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515.md?page=27)