# NFL: Underinflated Balls? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [January 21, 2015, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515 "2015-01-21T20:17:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 27
**Author:** ![fachverwirrt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/94ad74/32.png) [@fachverwirrt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fachverwirrt)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/521 "2015-05-12T18:03:12Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > I love it when someone gets a point made through sarcasm. _Shrug_ Personally I prefer using communication to communicate. YMMV. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/522 "2015-05-12T18:03:16Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > So, why should it be surprising that the Patriots fumble less often than other teams? What is your factual basis for claiming the Patriots’ balls were at a lower pressure than those of other teams? Another possible explanation, btw, for their playing better than most teams is that they _are_ better. Just something else to consider. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/523 "2015-05-12T18:03:28Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Dropped passes would probably be a less noisy stat to use, if you’re going to believe any at all. Neither would be statistically significant. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/524 "2015-05-12T18:43:48Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Neither would be statistically significant. What do you mean? Even those who were critical of Warren Sharp’s analysis determined that the Patriots’ fumble rate was statistically different from the rest of the league. They just differed on the _magnitude_ of the difference. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/525 "2015-05-12T18:46:18Z")
> [@fachverwirrt](#): > > _Shrug_ Personally I prefer using communication to communicate. YMMV. Uh huh. So your flip “worked in the Superbowl” offering, which was essentially one boundary of the excluded middle you later complained about, was superior communication? ---
**Author:** ![fachverwirrt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/94ad74/32.png) [@fachverwirrt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fachverwirrt)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/526 "2015-05-12T18:52:05Z")
The idea I was attempting to convey was “he won a Super Bowl with properly inflated balls.” Since that was the only idea I was attempting to convey, yes, I would say I was fairly successful. I still have no idea what you’re on about. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/527 "2015-05-12T20:06:35Z")
> [@borschevsky](#): > > If you don’t agree, then you need an explanation for why the Patriots cheated in 2014 and 2012, but not in 2013, and an explanation for why the Saints and Falcons fumble less often than the Patriots do. No, one doesn’t. While the Sharp study wasn’t air-tight, fivethirtyeight also found that [the odds that New England’s fumble rate was due to chance was less than 1 in 10000.](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/fivethirtyeight-dissects-the-deflategate-report/) ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/528 "2015-05-12T20:26:08Z")
Yes, I saw that chart, and I’d be interested to see more on how it was generated. For example, both NO and ATL had lower fumble rates over that period, but they’re 2nd and 4th in the chart. It also seems obvious that fumble rates aren’t random, since they’re affected by personnel, conditions, play calling, game situation, so it seems you’d need to try to account for all that as well. ---
**Author:** ![fachverwirrt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/94ad74/32.png) [@fachverwirrt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fachverwirrt)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/529 "2015-05-12T20:39:24Z")
Fivethirtyeight also posted a [whole slew of rebuttals to the Sharp study](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/your-guide-to-deflate-gateballghazi-related-statistical-analyses/), which are all far more meticulous than “I did my own calculations.” ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/530 "2015-05-12T20:45:49Z")
My thoughts: Is this really that big a deal, in terms of either the competitive advantage that the Patriots gained or by comparison to the shenanigans other teams probably pull? Probably not. Does this mean that no punishment, or a light punishment, should be applied? Absolutely not. Although it is probably true that a lot of cheating goes on in the league (given the amount of money and the size of the egos involved, it would be remarkable if it didn’t), punishing those cheaters who get caught is the only way to keep it from getting completely out of hand. I think the 4 game suspension is on the low end of the reasonable range, and I will be disappointed if it is reduced on appeal. Frankly, I wouldn’t mind seeing a couple games tacked on as punishment for the petulant defiance with which Brady and the rest of the organization have responded to the decision. OTOH, I am somewhat surprised that punishment was also meted out to the organization as a whole (fines and loss of draft picks), when my understanding is that no evidence was found that anyone other than Brady was aware of the cheating. Should this keep Brady out of the Hall of Fame? No. Should it keep him out of any discussions about the Best QB Ever? Absolutely. ---
**Author:** ![Quercus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/7ab992/32.png) [@Quercus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quercus)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2015, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/531 "2015-05-12T20:49:03Z")
> [@bup](#): > > No, one doesn’t. While the Sharp study wasn’t air-tight, fivethirtyeight also found that [the odds that New England’s fumble rate was due to chance was less than 1 in 10000.](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/fivethirtyeight-dissects-the-deflategate-report/) Wow, for a site that’s supposed to be about careful rational analysis, that’s an amazingly weak article. Apparently this bastion of scientific expertise looked at the report for about half an hour, and then weighed in (based, apparently on a combination of their gut reaction and taking any and every conclusion in the report as absolutely justified by sound procedures). They reproduce one table of data saying “Gosh, no need to look at anything else!”. I would think a reasonably skeptical analysis would have noticed, even in the one table they provide, there are some interesting questions, such as why one referee consistently measured the Patriots balls nearly half a PSI lower than the other referee, but at the same time consistently measured the Colts balls about the same amount higher. Then, there’s a single chart, without a single bit of explanation where it came from or what the methodology was, ‘proving’ that the fumble results couldn’t have been chance. He does have the grace to link to a previous post where a similar study was torn apart multiple ways, but can’t be bothered to say why those criticisms don’t apply to whatever it was that he did to create his chart. ---
**Author:** ![crypto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b3f665/32.png) [@crypto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crypto)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2015, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/532 "2015-05-13T01:43:16Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > First, it seems incontrovertible to me that a less inflated ball would remain more securely in your arms compared to a more inflated ball. Does anyone actually suggest otherwise? That a ball you can deform by squeezing would be easier to grip than one you could not? > > Secondly, there is now no doubt that the Patriot ball boys were deflating balls. > > So, why should it be surprising that the Patriots fumble less often than other teams? I agree that there are enough vagaries involved that one year’s worth of data will not be fully compelling. However, I strongly believe that they will fumble less and that the Patriots will return to the fumble rates they showed pre-2007 when measured over multiple years. Yes, I agree with you. One year is not a large enough sample size to make a proclaimation here. I mis-spoke. However, it will lend some credibility to the “Pats never fumbled since 2006 like the rest of the league, and 2015 shows them to be within the normal distribution of fumbling.” I think if that would continue to show a normal distribution for the say, next five years, where they are within the expected fumble numbers if the league, it will show something. What it will show depends on what you go into the story believing in the first place. I personally believe they cheated, they reduced the pressure in the balls, and as a result, their fumble numbers went down drastically. Can I prove it? No. Maybe the Patriots just used backs that simply didn’t fumble,nthey had bigger, steonger hands than the average league RB, or maybe half a dozen other factors. I need to dig up that report and post a link. I will do my best to provide it, because it is an interesting take on all of this. And like I said, it was a brilliant strategy, up until they got caught, of course. I am off to dig up the article and I will attempt to link it in. If you haven’t read it, I think this group will find it interesting. If you have and think it is crap, well, ok. That’s up to you. ---
**Author:** ![crypto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b3f665/32.png) [@crypto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crypto)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2015, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/533 "2015-05-13T01:50:13Z")
This has an update to it post Wells report. > **[10 Things You Need To Know About 2023 NFL Schedule](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/10-things-you-need-to-know-nfl-schedule-2023/)** > > Get an early betting edge looking at: NFL strength of schedule, rest-disparity, short weeks, road games on short rest, prep & rest ranking, team notes and more. Just cut and paste into your browser. I tried again to use the link button on the toolbar, and my browser crashed. If a mod can fix this into a clickable link, much obliged. He goes through his process, including throwing out dome teams for weather reasons, and a number of other factors. He shows that the Belichick Pats before the 2006 rule change were statistically with the rest of the league, but something changed in New England in 2007, and has continued for years. You be the judge. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2015, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/534 "2015-05-13T03:17:33Z")
**Stink Fish Pot** , we discussed those analyses extensively in this very thread. ---
**Author:** ![crypto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b3f665/32.png) [@crypto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crypto)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2015, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/535 "2015-05-13T11:18:18Z")
I figured. I didn’t scroll back through the 11 pages to see, but since I mentioned it again, I thought posting the link would be appropriate for anyone who was reading the thread now that may have missed the report or didn’t remember it. No need to revisit it if everyone in here knows about it. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2015, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/536 "2015-05-13T12:34:13Z")
> [@Stink Fish Pot](#): > > I figured. > > I didn’t scroll back through the 11 pages to see, but since I mentioned it again, I thought posting the link would be appropriate for anyone who was reading the thread now that may have missed the report or didn’t remember it. > > No need to revisit it if everyone in here knows about it. Don’t get me wrong. I think there’s a lot of utility to revisiting it. However, it seems that most people want to reject it out of hand. They either see it as unrelated, or they have the sense that it was “debunked” even though they don’t appear to understand what the debunking actually says. You should have a look at the discussion though. It perfectly captures the Patriot homer mentality. They believe that Belicheck has some special ball control training techniques that other coaches don’t. For instance, did you know that he sits running backs who fumble? Revolutionary! Innovative! Genius! How did anyone else never think to do that? ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2015, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/537 "2015-05-13T17:15:34Z")
**Quercus** , you know, I guess I agree with you. I hope fivethirthyeight comes up with something meatier and with their methodology explained. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515/538 "2016-09-26T20:08:38Z")
> [@bup](#): > > I think we should resume this excellent, productive discussion next December, when we can look at the Patriots’ record, Brady’s QB rating, and the Patriots’ fumble stats for the 2015 season. > > Those of us with “an ax to grind” because this gave such a miniscule advantage, if any, predict that those numbers will all be very different next season than they have been in recent seasons. The stats are in: The Patriots were once again among the best in the league at not fumbling in 2015. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-underinflated-balls/710515.md?page=26)