# NFL Week 10 - Thursday Night Games Are Upon Us
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374
**Category:** The Game Room
**Created:** [November 12, 2009, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374 "2009-11-12T22:33:16Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 10
### Author:  [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/181 "2009-11-16T16:49:16Z")
All the more reason not to give the Colts a short field.
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### Author:  [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/182 "2009-11-16T16:51:06Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#):
>
> The odds of converting the fourth down are [over 60%](http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-3.html), assuming that the Pats have an average offense.
Yes, but there is considerable reason to think it would be lower in this situation. On a normal 4th and 2 (on the 50 yard line, mid-game) the defense is going to keep one or two safeties deep. In this situation, they shouldn’t, and they didn’t. I think 50/50 may be more like it.
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### Author:  [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/183 "2009-11-16T16:56:30Z")
> [@cricetus](#):
>
> Stats like yours have no context.
Wait, so my stats have no context, but yours have accounted for the context precisely? No. We just disagree about the probabilities involved _in that specific context_.
FWIW, my rough estimates would be that going for it converts 55% of the time, the Patriots stop the Colts from gaining 30 yards one third of the time, and the Patriots stop the Colts from gaining 70 yards 60% of the time = 69.9% win by going for it, versus a 60% win by punting. In other words, I think it’s close.
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### Author:  [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/184 "2009-11-16T16:57:23Z")
Why are we even talking about the Gaytriots? It’s the Bengals that are in second place in the AFC!
…sorry to ruin your Black Panther Party, guys.
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### Author:  [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/185 "2009-11-16T16:57:28Z")
That’s not a “normal” 4th and 2. Most fourth-down attempts occur inside the opponent’s half, and at least a third are inside the 10.
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### Author:  [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/186 "2009-11-16T17:00:17Z")
Can we discuss for a second the third down call by the Pats? The decision to go for it on fourth has to be made actually on third down. It was 3rd and 2 and I don’t know why the Pats didn’t run the ball there, with the thought that they would go for it on 4th down. Running the ball would hacve either run some time off the clock (8 seconds) or forced the Colts to use their final timeout.
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### Author:  [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/187 "2009-11-16T17:01:08Z")
> [@cricetus](#):
>
> Want to know what numbers I didn’t make up? 35-34.
When did you start watching football, Joe?
Anyway - say “hi” to Mrs. Morgan for us.
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### Author:  [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/188 "2009-11-16T17:02:03Z")
> [@furt](#):
>
> Yes, but there is considerable reason to think it would be lower in this situation. On a normal 4th and 2 (on the 50 yard line, mid-game) the defense is going to keep one or two safeties deep. In this situation, they shouldn’t, and they didn’t. I think 50/50 may be more like it.
This is true, but there’s also reason to think it would be higher, since the Patriots have one of the best offenses in the league, if not the outright best.
> [@cricetus](#):
>
> All the more reason not to give the Colts a short field.
Also all the more reason not to give the Colts the ball.
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### Author:  [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/189 "2009-11-16T17:05:26Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#):
>
> Can we discuss for a second the third down call by the Pats? The decision to go for it on fourth has to be made actually on third down. It was 3rd and 2 and I don’t know why the Pats didn’t run the ball there, with the thought that they would go for it on 4th down. Running the ball would hacve either run some time off the clock (8 seconds) or forced the Colts to use their final timeout.
That’s a good point; if you know you’re going to go for it on 4th, then you must run the ball on 3rd. This is either a matter of Belichick not thinking ahead or, if he’s not the one calling the plays at that point (is he?), not communicating with the person who is.
So it’s not like anyone here (I assume) is just giving Belichick the benefit of the doubt because he’s a genius. He fucked up 3rd down, and he fucked up his timeouts. That said, once they get to that specific 4th down situation, going for it is, at least, _not bad_.
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### Author:  [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/190 "2009-11-16T17:06:34Z")
Math:
f = Odds of making the first down
d = Odds of Pats stopping the Colts after a punt
s = Odds of Pats stopping the Colts after a missed 4th down try
So, if
f + (1-f)(1-s) \> d then it is a good decision
this can be rearranged to look like
s \> (1-d)/(1-f)
Is this correct?
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### Author:  [@Diogenes\_the\_Cynic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diogenes_the_Cynic)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/191 "2009-11-16T17:11:00Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#):
>
> I actually agree with that too, but I’ve never seen a coach that had the balls to deliberately let the other team score, even when it was the right thing to do.
The Packers admitted after the Superbowl they lost to the Broncos that they let Denver score on purpose near the end of the game to give themselves some time to try to answer.
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### Author:  [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/192 "2009-11-16T17:13:56Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#):
>
> Ok, going by your numbers, say the Pats . . . lose 95% of the time if they fail on 4th down. . .
>
> . . . Also, with a short field, there’s some chance that a Colts TD will be an unexpected quick strike that will leave New England enough time to come back and potentially kick a field goal.
Ha, something just occurred to me: if \*\*cricetus \*\*is correct that Indianapolis scores a TD 95% of the time following a failed conversion, then the only logical move for the Patriots is to let the Colts score a TD on the first play of their drive, since New England would have a very good chance of driving for a game winning field goal with ~1:40 left. I don’t think this matches up too well with reality.
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### Author:  [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/193 "2009-11-16T17:15:59Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#):
>
> Math:
>
> f = Odds of making the first down
> d = Odds of Pats stopping the Colts after a punt
> s = Odds of Pats stopping the Colts after a missed 4th down try
>
> So, if
>
> f + (1-f)(1-s) \> d then it is a good decision
>
> this can be rearranged to look like
>
> s \> (1-d)/(1-f)
> Is this correct?
Odds of my making a mistake on the algebra for that last step are \>50%, so I’m not going to bother evaluating that. Looks good up until then, I’m pretty sure.
ETA: again, if we make certain simplifying assumptions. Odds of quick strike Colts TDs, blocked punts, big returns, fumbled punts, etc. would change the numbers. A more rigorous analysis is possible.
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### Author:  [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/194 "2009-11-16T17:18:27Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#):
>
> That’s not a “normal” 4th and 2. Most fourth-down attempts occur inside the opponent’s half, and at least a third are inside the 10.
You know perfectly well what I meant. According to your cite, conversions inside the 10 are more like 55%. I’d guess they are closer to 50% if you look at the 2 yard line.
I can understand that people get militant when faced with determined ignorance, but ya’ll might want to calibrate your certainty meter. I notice that most of [the FO guys](http://www.footballoutsiders.com/audibles/2009/audibles-line-week-10) think it was at least questionable.
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### Author:  [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/195 "2009-11-16T17:26:54Z")
> [@furt](#):
>
> I can understand that people get militant when faced with determined ignorance, but ya’ll might want to calibrate your certainty meter. I notice that most of [the FO guys](http://www.footballoutsiders.com/audibles/2009/audibles-line-week-10) think it was at least questionable.
I concur. Despite my obvious frustration with **cricetus** , I hope it’s clear that the theme of my posts has been “it’s a very close call,” and not “punting is fucking stupid.”
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### Author:  [@tnetennba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tnetennba)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/196 "2009-11-16T17:29:49Z")
I don’t think you are really frustated with me. You are frustrated that you can’t argue your way to where the Pats won.
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### Author:  [@lieu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lieu)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/197 "2009-11-16T17:32:55Z")
This is from Peter King’s MMQB column today. Seems to fit rather well with some of the discussion.
\*"At the two-minute warning Sunday, the Jags trailed the Jets 22-21. New York had no timeouts left, and Jacksonville was going down the field in big chunks. When running backs coach Kennedy Pola and coach Jack Del Rio told Jones-Drew to take a knee at the one-yard line if he got that far, he said, "Really?’’ And they explained why: The Jets were without timeouts, and if he could get to the one and then the Jags could bleed the clock, they could kick a field goal and go home with the win.
So on the next play, Jones-Drew burst through the middle – unbeknownst to him, the Jets were instructed to not tackle – and went down by himself at the one. A couple of Jets yelled, "C’mon! Score!’’ Said Jones-Drew: “The Jets guys were laughing. One of them said, ‘Why’d you do that?’ ‘’ The Jags let the clock run down, and Josh Scobee kicked the winning field goal at the gun.”\*
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### Author:  [@It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/It_s_Not_Rocket_Surgery)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/198 "2009-11-16T17:34:38Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#):
>
> Can we discuss for a second the third down call by the Pats? The decision to go for it on fourth has to be made actually on third down.
This is true every time a team might need or want to go for it on fourth and short. But most teams seem to rarely look ahead to that situation, not just the Patriots. it drives me nuts. I’ve seen some awful clock management bloopers by NFL teams over the past few years, too.
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### Author:  [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/199 "2009-11-16T17:41:03Z")
> [@cricetus](#):
>
> I don’t think you are really frustated with me. You are frustrated that you can’t argue your way to where the Pats won.
No, I’m frustrated with the attitude you’ve exuded that ‘it happened, therefore it was bound to happen,’ or, ‘it had bad consequences, therefore it was a bad decision.’
In sports analysis, this is a trifling problem. In the real world, it’s much more serious.
[An even handed analysis](http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4671) of the decision on the [pro-football-reference.com](http://pro-football-reference.com) blog. Concluding thusly:
> [@Chase Stuart](#):
>
> I will say this – and not just because I don’t like the Patriots. Thank goodness the play went down the way it did. Can you imagine the reaction if Faulk cleanly caught the ball?
>
> Michaels: "And do they make it? Yes the catch is made. Kevin Faulk is there. First down New England!
>
> Collinsworth: “Wow! Can you believe it! Is there ever any doubt that when you need a big play to be made that Kevin Faulk will make it?”
>
> Michaels: “Time after time Kevin Faulk has been a hero for the Patriots, and quite often against these Indianapolis Colts. Just a terrific play by one of the most underrated players in NFL history.”
>
> Collinsworth: “Kevin Faulk can do it all. And let me tell you one guy who doesn’t underrate Kevin Faulk; that’s his QB Tom Brady. It says quite a lot about how valuable the Patriots think this guy is to their team that with the game on the line, on a team with Randy Moss and Wes Welker, they trust Kevin Faulk to make the catch.”
>
> Michaels: “And why not? He always does.”
>
> Well, except this time. Faulk’s catch wasn’t easy, but it should have been made cleanly. He was one-on-one with a backup safety. The pass hit his hands. If he catches the ball, the Patriots win and he’s the hero. If he drops the ball, Belichick becomes the goat. And that’s why most coaches never go for it in that situation.
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### Author:  [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2009, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/200 "2009-11-16T17:41:44Z")
> [@cricetus](#):
>
> I don’t think you are really frustated with me. You are frustrated that you can’t argue your way to where the Pats won.
Ok, that’s it for me.
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