# NFL Week 10
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529
**Category:** The Game Room
**Created:** [November 10, 2011, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529 "2011-11-10T19:52:03Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 4
### Author:  [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/61 "2011-11-13T22:09:54Z")
Discussion about the Belichick call I’m referencing is [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=540196&highlight=Belichick) and [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11783689#post11783689). As I said, not the exact same situation, but a lot of similarities.
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### Author:  [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/62 "2011-11-13T22:10:27Z")
David Akers foot is killing the Giants, he followed up a 52 yard FG with a successful Onside kick. Hopefully the D can stop them this time. At least Gore has been largely held down for now.
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### Author:  [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/63 "2011-11-13T22:10:38Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#):
>
> Well, a big factor is that if Atlanta converts and fails to score, they probably end up punting it in a better situation than they were in if they were just to punt in the first place, making it a wash at worst for a signififcant fraction of the results. But I agree that if you actually plug in reasonable numbers the result is a lot closer than intuition suggests.
>
> We discussed this in detail when the Pats/Colts thing came up, although the situations differed somewhat, it was similar in the sense that there were people saying that absolutely it wsa the worst coaching move ever etc etc but they couldn’t come up with reasonable numbers to plug into the situational formula to demonstrate that. The probabilty was staring them in the face, but they decided to ignore it and stick to their gut feelings.
Well, the coach has to run the “percentage everyone will think I’m a jackass” vs “percentage this will work, but they’ll probably call it lucky” numbers.
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### Author:  [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/64 "2011-11-13T22:11:53Z")
Hester is a GD machine. In case anybody was wondering.
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### Author:  [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/65 "2011-11-13T22:12:26Z")
Yep, I know:
> [@NFL Week 10 - Thursday Night Games Are Upon Us](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10-thursday-night-games-are-upon-us/517374/115):
>
> In general, “conventional” football is way to conservative. It’s designed to protect the coach’s ass by making it seem like he made the safe decision even when he made the wrong one. Coaches regularly give up a fraction of a chance to win the game in order to deflect fan anger later if they lose. One of the great things about Bellichick is that he doesn’t give a shit about all that, and he can objectively evaluate the merits of going for it even if the fans can’t. So the move he made deviates from the norm - and deviating from the norm and then not having success definitely gets you quite a fan reaction - but it was the smart play given the circumstances.
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### Author:  [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/66 "2011-11-13T22:13:41Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#):
>
> Hester is a GD machine. In case anybody was wondering.
Yep. And it’s the first time I’ve benched him on my fantasy team. :smack:
Also, someone needs to put up big signs in the announcers booth that says “Scoring plays cannot and will not be challenged.” It’s been 10 weeks, but I keep hearing “They should challenge that” or “They shouldn’t have challenged that.”
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### Author:  [@Mince](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mince)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/67 "2011-11-13T22:14:09Z")
Bears 20-0!
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### Author:  [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/68 "2011-11-13T22:17:24Z")
Hester. Fuck yes. Worth every penny.
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### Author:  [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/69 "2011-11-13T22:21:12Z")
> [@borschevsky](#):
>
> Brees without the ball is better than both.
Wow, that took a while to post.
As usual for discussions like these, Advanced NFL Stats says that going for it is correct. A team punting in that situation can expect to win 42% of the time, and a team going for it can expect to win 47% of the time. Those are baseline/average stats, so they should be adjusted for the situation. For example, if you think that New Orleans has a better than average offense, the punting expectation goes down, so going for it is preferable by a larger margin.
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### Author:  [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/70 "2011-11-13T22:26:28Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#):
>
> In general, “conventional” football is way to conservative. It’s designed to protect the coach’s ass by making it seem like he made the safe decision even when he made the wrong one. Coaches regularly give up a fraction of a chance to win the game in order to deflect fan anger later if they lose. One of the great things about Bellichick is that he doesn’t give a shit about all that, and he can objectively evaluate the merits of going for it even if the fans can’t. So the move he made deviates from the norm - and deviating from the norm and then not having success definitely gets you quite a fan reaction - but it was the smart play given the circumstances.
I think there is also a psychological preference for decisions that “extend the game”. Going for that 4th down and failing just loses (or close to it), and I think people prefer to avoid making such a decision, even if it’s the percentage play on average.
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### Author:  [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/71 "2011-11-13T22:34:21Z")
Suh is such a dirty fuck.
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### Author:  [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/72 "2011-11-13T22:37:23Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#):
>
> Discussion about the Belichick call I’m referencing is [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=540196&highlight=Belichick) and [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11783689#post11783689). As I said, not the exact same situation, but a lot of similarities.
Those threads are making my stabby.
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### Author:  [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/73 "2011-11-13T22:37:41Z")
> [@Omniscient](#):
>
> Suh is such a dirty fuck.
What did he do this time? I am only following it on the net. I am watching Giants at Niners.
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### Author:  [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/74 "2011-11-13T22:42:46Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#):
>
> What did he do this time? I am only following it on the net. I am watching Giants at Niners.
He pulled Cutler’s helmet off and threw it.
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### Author:  [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/75 "2011-11-13T22:42:49Z")
Intentionally ripped Cutlers helmet off after a scramble. Mysteriously not flagged. Will be fined I suspect.
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### Author:  [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/76 "2011-11-13T22:45:59Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#):
>
> He pulled Cutler’s helmet off and threw it.
> [@Omniscient](#):
>
> Intentionally ripped Cutlers helmet off after a scramble. Mysteriously not flagged. Will be fined I suspect.
Isn’t it getting close to the point where if the NFL doesn’t suspend, some O-line players are going to find an Op to hurt him. His rep is really bad at this point. Reminds me of the asshole lineman that Dallas had a few years back that just continually played dirty.
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### Author:  [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/77 "2011-11-13T22:56:07Z")
Isn’t that a fumble?
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### Author:  [@Mince](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mince)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/78 "2011-11-13T22:57:42Z")
Wow, how do you resolve the situation in Chicago? A Detroit DL hit the ball while in Cutler’s hand, it popped out but Cutler, following through with a natural passing motion, pushed the ball foward as if passing it. A fumble, but no one touched the ball and the whistle blew.
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### Author:  [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/79 "2011-11-13T22:59:12Z")
Stupid Lions players and an early whistle/wrong call help the Bears.
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### Author:  [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)
#### Post date: [November 13, 2011, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/80 "2011-11-13T23:15:46Z")
I realize I am biased here, but on that fumble/incomplete pass call, does it really matter if the ball is in Cutlers hand? If cutler intentionally drove the ball forward with his forearm with an intent to get it to someone doesn’t that still constitute a forward pass? Its a judgment call, but it didn’t look like he accidentally shoved the ball forward to me.
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