# NFL Week 10
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529
**Category:** The Game Room
**Created:** [November 10, 2011, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529 "2011-11-10T19:52:03Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 7
### Author:  [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2011, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/121 "2011-11-14T21:29:37Z")
I would think it comes down to choosing your offense or your defense. The catch is that if you choose your offense, they have exactly one play to proove their worth, while the defense would have some breathing room.
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### Author:  [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2011, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/122 "2011-11-14T21:29:49Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#):
>
> They also noted that the Chiefs face a pretty hellacious next five games: they play the Patriots next Monday night…after that, they play all four teams from last season’s conference championship games (Packers, Bears, Steelers, Jets) in four consecutive weeks. They suggested that it’s the first time a team has ever faced this particular scheduling quirk (I have no idea if that’s true, but it does sound like a rare thing).
And will be doing that with Tyler Palko at the helm. Andrew Luck is probably out of the question for them, but Matt Barkley might not be.
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### Author:  [@Mince](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mince)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2011, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/123 "2011-11-14T21:34:26Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#):
>
> I am not saying he made the wrong decision, but it is not necessarily true he made the right decision based on league trends and tendencies.
But sever people in this thread _did_ claim it was absolutely the wrong call, not knowing the quantitative values of the factors they use to claim it was wrong. My stance has been that the Falcon’s had probability in their favor, not that head coach Mike Smith necessarily knew that.
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### Author:  [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2011, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/124 "2011-11-14T22:19:50Z")
> [@Mince](#):
>
> But sever people in this thread _did_ claim it was absolutely the wrong call, not knowing the quantitative values of the factors they use to claim it was wrong. My stance has been that the Falcon’s had probability in their favor, not that head coach Mike Smith necessarily knew that.
What were the odds of losing the game if they gave up the ball on their 29 vs. punting it to their 31 yard line? The chance of making 4th down had to be way against that, not just make or not make it.
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### Author:  [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2011, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/125 "2011-11-14T22:43:10Z")
> [@Mince](#):
>
> But sever people in this thread _did_ claim it was absolutely the wrong call, not knowing the quantitative values of the factors they use to claim it was wrong. My stance has been that the Falcon’s had probability in their favor, not that head coach Mike Smith necessarily knew that.
They only had the probability in their favor if you can say that the league averages were the underlying probabilities in that game. Now granted that may be the best information we have, but there is considerable uncertainty. I don’t necessarily think it was a bad call either by Smith, but I am not convinced it wasn’t. In fact the numbers actually given here would lead me to believe that it is pretty close to a push in reality.
Also, I think there is something missing in the statistical analysis. I have seen what is the percentage they make the first down and score, vs. the probability they stop the Saints. But that seems to only account for the probability the Falcons score on that drive. But there is the probability that they stop the Saints and they get the ball back (there of course is a small probability that they don’t make it and the Saints fail to score and they get the ball back.\_. That probability is closer to zero if they go and miss versus if they punt. Not if they get the ball back they have some probability of scoring etc. I think that is the missing component of some of this probability analysis. Maybe I am wrong.
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### Author:  [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)
#### Post date: [November 14, 2011, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/126 "2011-11-14T22:54:19Z")
> [@Omniscient](#):
>
> And will be doing that with Tyler Palko at the helm.
Yup…Cassel may be done for the season, with a “signficant” injury to his throwing hand.
[http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/football/nfl/11/14/matt.cassel.could.miss.season.hand.injury.ap/index.html?sct=hp\_t2\_a4&eref=sihp](http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/football/nfl/11/14/matt.cassel.could.miss.season.hand.injury.ap/index.html?sct=hp_t2_a4&eref=sihp)
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### Author:  [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/127 "2011-11-15T01:02:21Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#):
>
> They only had the probability in their favor if you can say that the league averages were the underlying probabilities in that game. Now granted that may be the best information we have, but there is considerable uncertainty. I don’t necessarily think it was a bad call either by Smith, but I am not convinced it wasn’t. In fact the numbers actually given here would lead me to believe that it is pretty close to a push in reality.
It’s definitely true that the league averages are only a baseline, and that they should be adjusted for a given situation. Obviously the proper adjustments are arguable. There are a couple things I would say favor going for it in this situation: the Saints offense is good, and it was a shorter-than-average fourth-and-one. That is, the fourth-and-one stats include plays that were fourth-and-an-inch and fourth-and-four-feet.
That actually brings up a point about the stats that I don’t think gets discussed much. There should be a bias in the stats since teams can choose whether or not to go for it on fourth down. The sample of go-for-it attempts will be skewed towards situations favorable to the offense, because those are exactly the cases where teams will choose to make the attempt.
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#):
>
> Also, I think there is something missing in the statistical analysis. I have seen what is the percentage they make the first down and score, vs. the probability they stop the Saints. But that seems to only account for the probability the Falcons score on that drive. But there is the probability that they stop the Saints and they get the ball back (there of course is a small probability that they don’t make it and the Saints fail to score and they get the ball back.\_. That probability is closer to zero if they go and miss versus if they punt. Not if they get the ball back they have some probability of scoring etc. I think that is the missing component of some of this probability analysis. Maybe I am wrong.
The Advanced NFL Stats stuff that I quoted earlier definitely does take this all into account, and I’d assume most of the other analysis does as well.
I think the thing that tends to bother me most about the way commentators talk about these decisions is the way they base their opinion on the results of the decision, when the decision has to be made before the outcome is known (obviously). Was anybody calling Belichick an idiot when he successfully went for 4th and 1 in his own end against Atlanta? Or Sean Payton, when he went for 4th and 1 in OT in the NFC Championship game? Hardly anyone even remembers that these plays happen.
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### Author:  [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/128 "2011-11-15T01:07:21Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#):
>
> This is almost similar to the Belichick 4th and 2 situation against the Colts a few years ago that everyone exploded over even though it was at worst a break-even call. The big difference in that case is that Belichick just had to run out the clock, so completing the fourth down play ended the game, whereas for Atlanta it only lets them keep the ball on their own side of the field and lots more has to happen for them to score.
Belichick was up by 4 points, meaning a field goal wouldn’t help the Colts. In yesterday’s situation, a field goal wins the game, and you risk giving the team the ball in field goal range. The reward? 1st & 10 on your own 30. This is clearly and easily a “don’t do it” situation in any risk-reward evaluation.
> [@Mince](#):
>
> On the ESPN2 show, _Numbers Never Lie_, they confirmed is _was_ the right decision. They said that teams in that situation win 50% of the time when they go for it and win 41% of the time when they punt. That’s a huge differential. Of course Eric Mangini and Michael Smith, two of the show’s hosts, remained obstinate in the face of science.
That’s odd. Eric Mangini basically did the same thing with the Jets. I decried the stupidity of the move, but of course the dope rushed in with their preferred Madden strategy of always go for it, it was a good call. Maybe the fact that Mangini (of course) lost that game changed his mind.
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### Author:  [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/129 "2011-11-15T01:38:51Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#):
>
> Yup…Cassel may be done for the season, with a “signficant” injury to his throwing hand.
> [http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/football/nfl/11/14/matt.cassel.could.miss.season.hand.injury.ap/index.html?sct=hp\_t2\_a4&eref=sihp](http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/football/nfl/11/14/matt.cassel.could.miss.season.hand.injury.ap/index.html?sct=hp_t2_a4&eref=sihp)
Sounds like Schaub is done for the season too. What a blood bath this week turned out to be. Get ready for the Matt Leinart show next week. Foster and Tate might end up having 60 rushes a game for the rest of the season ala the Tebroncos.
Adding to the list, Leon Hall was lost too, not sure how serious that one is though.
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### Author:  [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/130 "2011-11-15T02:41:02Z")
> [@EllisDee](#):
>
> Belichick was up by 4 points, meaning a field goal wouldn’t help the Colts. In yesterday’s situation, a field goal wins the game, and you risk giving the team the ball in field goal range. The reward? 1st & 10 on your own 30. This is clearly and easily a “don’t do it” situation in any risk-reward evaluation.
No, it isn’t, and this is basically the whole point. You can’t just compare the magnitude of the risk and the reward, you have to consider how likely each outcome is.
Why not try applying your logic to the decision to punt? A risk is that the punt gets blocked, and the reward for a successful punt is New Orleans having the ball. Such a risk makes this a clear “don’t do it” situation! Unless you remember to account for how unlikely it is that the punt will get blocked.
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### Author:  [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/131 "2011-11-15T03:29:41Z")
That Aaron Rodgers kid. He’s not so bad.
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### Author:  [@UncleNito](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UncleNito)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/132 "2011-11-15T04:04:38Z")
> [@Hamlet](#):
>
> That Aaron Rodgers kid. He’s not so bad.
I dunno, he’s barely completing 2/3 of his passes tonight. I’ve seen better.
ETA: OK, 3/4. Still.
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### Author:  [@D\_Odds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Odds)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/133 "2011-11-15T04:09:44Z")
> [@Omniscient](#):
>
> Get ready for the Matt Leinart show next week.
Week after next.
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### Author:  [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/134 "2011-11-15T04:11:00Z")
> [@D\_Odds](#):
>
> Week after next.
PFT is lobbying for a call to Favre for the Texans. God save us.
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### Author:  [@UncleNito](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UncleNito)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/135 "2011-11-15T04:14:20Z")
> [@Omniscient](#):
>
> PFT is lobbying for a call to Favre for the Texans. God save us.
The local media here in Indy was making noise about Favre coming here before they signed Collins. Woulda been a train wreck but I would have showed up for a game or two.
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### Author:  [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/136 "2011-11-15T04:22:04Z")
> [@borschevsky](#):
>
> No, it isn’t, and this is basically the whole point. You can’t just compare the magnitude of the risk and the reward, you have to consider how likely each outcome is.
>
> Why not try applying your logic to the decision to punt? A risk is that the punt gets blocked, and the reward for a successful punt is New Orleans having the ball. Such a risk makes this a clear “don’t do it” situation! Unless you remember to account for how unlikely it is that the punt will get blocked.
Yeah, if it works in Madden it must be true!
No way could Atlanta expect to force a punt on defense. It’s not like they just did it or anything. And after you hold them to a punt, them already being in field goal range shouldn’t be a problem in overtime, right?
The two outcomes are a) you get 1st down on your own 30, or b) you give the opponent an immediate makable fg attempt to win the game. Tell you what, let’s play a game of risk/reward. 99% chance I give you 10 dollars. 1% you give me your entire net worth, including all future earnings. Ready to play?
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### Author:  [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/137 "2011-11-15T05:31:14Z")
> [@EllisDee](#):
>
> Tell you what, let’s play a game of risk/reward. 99% chance I give you 10 dollars. 1% you give me your entire net worth, including all future earnings. Ready to play?
No, but I’m happy to see some percentages creeping into your posts. If you’re going to talk about risk/reward analysis, it’s good to do some analysis.
If you have a bit of time, it really is interesting to just make your own estimates for the probabilities involved, and then work out the numbers for punting vs. going for it. In my experience, going for it is usually a better idea than it intuitively seems.
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### Author:  [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/138 "2011-11-15T15:26:19Z")
> [@Omniscient](#):
>
> I think right minded folks, aka not-Packers fans, would be reminded of the Patriots using Troy Brown as a DB in 2004.
>
> I noticed what seemed to be a disproportionately high number of season ending injuries being reported today. Chris Williams for the Bears, Knowshon Moreno for the Broncos, maybe Matt Cassel for the Chiefs, Eric Wood for the Bills, Rashean Mathis and Eben Britton for the Jags and that’s just what’s made headlines this morning.
Add Leon Hall, starting CB for the Bengals, to that list. Dammit!
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### Author:  [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/139 "2011-11-15T16:28:28Z")
I would concede that it is a coin flip, the data suggests it was a good idea but there are several uncertain factors that would make me hedge more toward 50/50. I think one reason that it bothers folks is because it feels like the Saints wouldn’t have to ear it this way. Its like a coinflip where if its heads I give you $20 if its tails I give you $20 but you have to run a mile first. Not a perfect analogy but you get the idea. By not punting it feels like (and I know this is wishy-washy) they didn’t give themselves a fair chance. The Saints D beat the Falcons O once, but the Falcons D never gets a chance against the Saints O. I get the percentages and I get that winning is the ultimate goal, but it just seems like he bailed on his defense.
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### Author:  [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/140 "2011-11-15T19:04:30Z")
> [@Omniscient](#):
>
> Sounds like Schaub is done for the season too. What a blood bath this week turned out to be. Get ready for the Matt Leinart show next week. Foster and Tate might end up having 60 rushes a game for the rest of the season ala the Tebroncos…
Surprisingly, I’m looking forward to the Leinart era. The thought in Houston was that, despite their very surprising success this year, Schaub wasn’t the guy to take them all the way to the top. The problem is that Schaub cost you 2 2nd rounders, and there’s no way that Kubiak and Smith were going to cut bait with him. He’s good enough that you didn’t want to replace him—especially considering the glaring holes in the team Houston showed before this year—but not good enough IMHO to have playoff success.
Not saying that Leinart is, but he has the physical tools to do it, and he’ll never have a better opportunity to succeed than he has now. Hopefully \<_gets on knees, crosses fingers and toes_\> he’s learned that much of an NFL QB’s success depends on mental preparation and that he’s finally willing to put in the work every week to be adequately prepared, and to be an example of leadership for this team. And if Leinart goes bust, or has only the same level of success as Schaub, then perhaps this team will make acquiring a QB more of a priority, now that they have the luxury of upgrading from competent players. Who knows, maybe a star will be born?
Should be fun this next week. Jacksonville may be atrocious offensively, but their defense can still play—ask Baltimore!—even with Mathis on IR.
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