# NFL Week 10
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529
**Category:** The Game Room
**Created:** [November 10, 2011, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529 "2011-11-10T19:52:03Z")
**Posts on this page:** 12
**Page:** 8
### Author:  [@It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/It_s_Not_Rocket_Surgery)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/141 "2011-11-15T19:12:42Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#):
>
> Surprisingly, I’m looking forward to the Leinart era. The thought in Houston was that, despite their very surprising success this year, Schaub wasn’t the guy to take them all the way to the top. The problem is that Schaub cost you 2 2nd rounders, and there’s no way that Kubiak and Smith were going to cut bait with him. He’s good enough that you didn’t want to replace him—especially considering the glaring holes in the team Houston showed before this year—but not good enough IMHO to have playoff success.
Is this based on anything real, or are Houston sportswriters blaming their inability to get into the playoffs in recent years on Schaub? Because from the outside, it looked like the offense has always been plenty good, but the Texan defense has sucked until this year. Why is Schaub a scapegoat?
I’d rather have Schaub than, say, Mark Sanchez any day of the week.
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### Author:  [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/142 "2011-11-15T19:12:46Z")
Jacksonville/Cleveland should be over/under 15, and I’d still take the under.
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### Author:  [@Omniscient](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omniscient)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/143 "2011-11-15T19:23:18Z")
> [@It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](#):
>
> Is this based on anything real, or are Houston sportswriters blaming their inability to get into the playoffs in recent years on Schaub? Because from the outside, it looked like the offense has always been plenty good, but the Texan defense has sucked until this year. Why is Schaub a scapegoat?
>
> I’d rather have Schaub than, say, Mark Sanchez any day of the week.
I’d put most of the blame on the defense too, with a sizable share for Kubiak’s poor game management but Schaub has shown an ability to be the Anti-Sanchez. Great numbers, very effective between the 20s but crumbles in the clutch time and time again.
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### Author:  [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/144 "2011-11-15T19:39:00Z")
Oh, and the Saints/Falcons decision really depends on what numbers you plug into the probability matrix. That said—I didn’t watch the game—wasn’t it like 4th and inches? Even a bad short-yardage team should get 6 inches if they have to.
If you punt there, you are, ballpark, giving the Saints the ball back and requiring them to go an extra ~35-40 yards (Avg. 45 yds a punt for 5 Atlanta punts; 1 return of 18 yds, 4 no returns) to get back into Kasay’s range (under 53 yds.) The Saints had 11 drives up to that point. They were under 30 yds for 5 of them, 30-40 yds for 2 of them, and over 40 yds on 4 of them. In the 2nd half, N.O. had 6 drives; 3 were under 10 yds, and 3 went for over 60. Call it a 50% chance that, if you punt the ball to them and don’t get blocked or give up a big return from Sproles, New Orleans will still get enough yardage to get back into FG range.
Even as bad as Atlanta is at short-yardage situations, per [Football Outsiders](http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol) they still have a power success (Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown.) of 54%. They only got stuffed (Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage.) 24% of the time. And [New Orleans is bad at both of those too](http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl), defending the short yardage situation, so you’d think that Atlanta’s actual chances here would be better than I’ve listed. With 6 inches/a foot to go, I’d think the \<24% chance of failure is more relevant.
I’d have to agree with Advanced Football Stats’ take on the situation and that going for it was the better play. Brees, et al, has a 50% chance of killing you anyway if you give him the ball back. Now, if Atlanta had been stoning them in the 2nd half, then sure, punt. But, at the worst, I’d think it’s a coin-flip as to which was better.
Re: Schaub. I like Omni’s description of him in the red zone. The description I’ve used, and can’t remember who I borrowed it from, was that Schaub was as if someone built the prototypical NFL QB, but built it with a flaw that it would self-destruct by making the absolute worst possible decision, two to three times a game, at the worst possible time. That said, he’s good enough that you are, more likely than not, hurting your team by going with an unknown QB; he’s just not good enough to be with the Brady’s, Brees’s, and Rodgers’s of the world. I also agree with the comments that Houston’s defense was much more responsible for their woes years’ past, than anything having to do with the offense.
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### Author:  [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/145 "2011-11-15T20:40:59Z")
> [@It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](#):
>
> Is this based on anything real, or are Houston sportswriters blaming their inability to get into the playoffs in recent years on Schaub? Because from the outside, it looked like the offense has always been plenty good, but the Texan defense has sucked until this year. Why is Schaub a scapegoat?
>
> I’d rather have Schaub than, say, Mark Sanchez any day of the week.
Houstonian here: yeah, I’m not seeing this. Houston sportswriters haven’t been seriously critical of Schaub for a couple years, when there were a few grumblings about his ‘toughness’. Then he went out and played 2 complete 16 game seasons. Sure, he’s had individual games that deserved criticism, but so has pretty much every QB in the league.
We’ve all recognized it was mainly the defense. Having a defense perennially in the bottom half of the league (and often a bottom 5 defense) will kill your chances. It’s not an accident that the best defense Houston ever fielded (still crummy) was also our one winning season. It’s hard to win consistently when your offense absolutely needs to score 25+ points a game to make up for poor defense.
In Houston, we’re in a ‘wait and see’ mode with Leinart, but Schaub was absolutely worth 2 2nd round picks. But that’s exactly why he flies under the radar. He wasn’t a bust but he wasn’t worth 2 1st round picks, either. He’s exactly the QB you expect. Will win in the system but can’t realistically be expected to lead many exciting last minute drives to win. That’s not really a knock against him, by the way. There are plenty of teams around the league (including all 3 others in the AFC South) that would love to have that much. So, better than a game manager but not really elite.
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### Author:  [@Death\_of\_Rats](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Death_of_Rats)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/146 "2011-11-15T21:53:50Z")
Add to the injury list Al Harris of the Rams, who will go on IR for a torn ACL. This means that the Rams have lost 4 of the 5 CBs they started with and have lost 7 total, this year. The only remaining CB from the start of the year is Justin King, who was #4 on the depth cart at the start…
and he is injured.
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### Author:  [@Laggard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Laggard)
#### Post date: [November 15, 2011, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/147 "2011-11-15T22:21:59Z")
So would Rodgers backup Matt Flynn be a starter for most other teams?
Anyway, Rodgers threw a completion to Finley last night and I’m still not sure how he go the ball in there. Finley was double covered and someone Rodgers made it happen.
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### Author:  [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2011, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/148 "2011-11-16T05:09:30Z")
> [@Laggard](#):
>
> So would Rodgers backup Matt Flynn be a starter for most other teams?
Probably not. Why would you think that?
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### Author:  [@Laggard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Laggard)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2011, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/149 "2011-11-16T13:08:45Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#):
>
> Probably not. Why would you think that?
Some of rodgers teammates feel that Flynn could come in and replace Rodgers with little difference in results.
And he looks really good in the limited time we’ve seen him.
That’s why I wonder.
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### Author:  [@kidchameleon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kidchameleon)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2011, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/150 "2011-11-16T13:52:31Z")
> [@Laggard](#):
>
> So would Rodgers backup Matt Flynn be a starter for most other teams?
Only the Eagles’ back-ups could go 6-10 if they were starters. Sadly for Philly fans, it appears that the Eagles’ starters will do about the same. 😉
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### Author:  [@Enginerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enginerd)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2011, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/151 "2011-11-16T16:54:43Z")
> [@Laggard](#):
>
> Some of rodgers teammates feel that Flynn could come in and replace Rodgers with little difference in results.
Really? Who?
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### Author:  [@kidchameleon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kidchameleon)
#### Post date: [November 16, 2011, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-10/602529/152 "2011-11-16T17:13:47Z")
> [@Enginerd](#):
>
> Really? Who?
I heard #10 believes that.
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