# NFL Week 11 **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [November 18, 2010, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131 "2010-11-18T19:15:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2010, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/141 "2010-11-23T17:35:12Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > They just spent a second-rounder on Jimmy Clausen. You’d think they would give him a real shot before drafting a first rounder. I think they’ll take a tackle instead. I disagree, the consensus seems to be that Luck is a once in a generation QB prospect. Clausen being a second round pick means they haven’t invested a lot of money into him. I think they draft Luck and trade Clausen. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2010, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/142 "2010-11-23T18:30:13Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > I disagree, the consensus seems to be that Luck is a once in a generation QB prospect. I’m not a college football guy, but after this season Luck will have started, what, 21 games in college? Danger! Danger! 1st Round QBs with short résumés – less than, say, three seasons as a starter – crap out a pretty huge percentage of the time. ETA: . . . which is not to say that you’re necessarily wrong about Carolina taking him at #1. I’m just saying that they’d be wrong to so so, IMO. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2010, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/143 "2010-11-23T18:46:14Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > I’m not a college football guy, but after this season Luck will have started, what, 21 games in college? Danger! Danger! 1st Round QBs with short résumés – less than, say, three seasons as a starter – crap out a pretty huge percentage of the time. > > ETA: . . . which is not to say that you’re necessarily wrong about Carolina taking him at #1. I’m just saying that they’d be wrong to so so, IMO. Closer to 25, which is two full seasons. That is not a particularly short resume. Tom Brady had a similar resume. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2010, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/144 "2010-11-23T21:24:18Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > Closer to 25, which is two full seasons. That is not a particularly short resume. Tom Brady had a similar resume. For a 1st Round pick – especially a #1 overall who’s going to command $55M guaranteed – it is a pretty short résumé. Whether because of inexperience or simply a dearth of reliable information with which NFL teams can make a judgment, _highly drafted_ QBs with relatively little starting experience in college fail more often than similarly drafted QBs with ample starting experience. For instance, look at Jake Locker. My understanding is that he may very well have been the #1 overall pick had he come out after last season. He stayed for his senior year, however, and now his draft stock is apparently plummeting. Because he’s starting these extra games, NFL teams have a more pessimistic\* but also more accurate\* understanding of his potential. If Andrew Luck were to go back for his senior season, maybe he’d play well enough to remain the consensus #1 overall pick, but maybe he’d struggle somewhat and the bloom would be off the rose; it happens all the time. (See also: Brohm, Brian.) ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 23, 2010, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/145 "2010-11-23T21:33:20Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > I disagree, the consensus seems to be that Luck is a once in a generation QB prospect. Clausen being a second round pick means they haven’t invested a lot of money into him. I think they draft Luck and trade Clausen. What consensus? He’s not even going to win the Heisman. > [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > Closer to 25, which is two full seasons. That is not a particularly short resume. Tom Brady had a similar resume. And Tom Brady was drafted in the sixth round. ---
**Author:** ![garygnu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/garygnu/32/2924_2.png) [@garygnu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/garygnu)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2010, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/146 "2010-11-24T03:07:01Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Surprised you’ve given up on Troy Smith already, **gary**. He’s only had one bad game. Granted, he’s not exactly setting the world on fire, but he’s only turned it over once and it’s not as though the running game has done him any favors. > > You really don’t want Gruden. He won a Super Bowl in Tampa with the team Dungy and McKay built, and the team got progressively worse as he assumed more and more control over personnel. > > He’s got a priceless offense mind, and a worthless talent-evaluating one. I’ve haven’t so much given up on Troy as I’ve given up on Singletary and the chain he’s got on OC Mike Johnson. Singletary has no talent evaluation ability at all, so I’ll take Gruden’s mind thankfully. I think his time away from coaching and in the booth has given Gruden some perspective. However, Tim Kawakami’s article pushing Harbaugh makes me put the two on even level. No matter what, any new coach must have the power to overrule and/or fire Paraag Marathe. ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2010, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/147 "2010-11-24T03:09:22Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > What consensus? He’s not even going to win the Heisman. I thought better of you than that you’d need the difference between the Heisman and being an NFL success explained to you. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2010, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/148 "2010-11-24T04:26:08Z")
Of course not - but there are at least three pro-style college quarterbacks doing better than him. It’s not as though he’s losing out to an option guy. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2010, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/149 "2010-11-24T14:46:26Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Of course not - but there are at least three pro-style college quarterbacks doing better than him. It’s not as though he’s losing out to an option guy. Who these three quarterbacks? Cam Newton who doesn’t play in a pro style offense? Kellen Moore who is all of six feet tall? ---
**Author:** ![Hamlet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hamlet/32/2818_2.png) [@Hamlet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hamlet)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2010, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/150 "2010-11-24T14:56:08Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Of course not - but there are at least three pro-style college quarterbacks doing better than him. It’s not as though he’s losing out to an option guy. The only other guy I can even see in the running with Luck is Kellen Moore. And Moore has issues also, even more critical ones I think than Luck. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2010, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/151 "2010-11-24T15:40:48Z")
I was thinking of Moore and Locker (who is admittedly having a down year). I have no idea who the third guy would be. In any event, I have no real problem with Luck being the #1 pick. He’s got more starting experience than Mark Sanchez did, for one. I don’t think for a _second_ that he’s a “once in a generation” prospect. And as far as my QB talent spotting skills go: [QUOTE=Me] > [@Omni](#): > > You have to look at the systems these guys play in. McCoy plays in a spread offense, and of all the top QB’s has got the weakest arm. If I had to rank this years crop of QB’s, he would be fifth. > > Also playing and winning at a top program isn’t what NFL scout look for in a QB. If you look at the leagues starting QB’s there are only a handful that played at football powerhouses. McCoy has a strong enough arm and is the most accurate of this year’s quarterback class and the most mobile. You may feel free to provide a hat and see what happens. [/QUOTE] Need to resurrect that thread. Although I did also predict that Bradford would be a bust. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2010, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/152 "2010-11-24T16:40:30Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > For a 1st Round pick – especially a #1 overall who’s going to command $55M guaranteed – it is a pretty short résumé. Whether because of inexperience or simply a dearth of reliable information with which NFL teams can make a judgment, _highly drafted_ QBs with relatively little starting experience in college fail more often than similarly drafted QBs with ample starting experience. Sam Bradford had 30 games in college but only two his senior year and suffered a shoulder injury, which you would think might worry pro teams. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2010, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/153 "2010-11-24T17:37:27Z")
Thirty-one starts, apparently, but… That makes for 24% more starting experience than Luck, a not-insignificant amount, and… I didn’t mean to imply that a prospect with so few starts \*couldn’t \*succeed or be considered worthy of a high draft pick, just that most highly drafted QBs have more starting experience, and that those low-experience QBs who are drafted high are _more likely_ to miss than highly drafted QBs with lots of experience. Go back and look: what would be the list of QBs taken in the top half of Round 1 with fewer than Luck’s 25 starts in college? And how many of those Quarterbacks were actually successful? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2010, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/154 "2010-11-24T18:33:48Z")
Well, Mark Sanchez, who I mentioned above, for one. It’s worth bearing in mind, though, that any quarterback who’s _that_ good is almost always going to have started from Day One, or at least since his second year. ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2010, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/155 "2010-11-24T19:21:19Z")
Yeah, Sanchez is on the list. (16 Games Started? The info can be hard to find.) Don’t let anyone tell you he’s established himself as a quality starter just yet, though. JaMarcus Russell started \*\*29 \*\*games. I think Joey Harrington started a \*maximum \*of 29 college games. Really, while it’s entirely possible I’m missing someone, there just aren’t many 1st Round QBs at all with as few as 25 college starts, and the even the low-experience guys who are somewhat above that number _tend to be_ some of the biggest busts of recent years. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2010, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/156 "2010-11-24T19:30:17Z")
29 games is more than two seasons, so that’s really not a bad number. So is 25, for that matter, depending on the conference. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2010, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/157 "2010-11-24T19:34:29Z")
Rick Mirer had 37 starts. Brady Quinn had 46. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2010, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/158 "2010-11-24T19:37:39Z")
> [@VarlosZ](#): > > Yeah, Sanchez is on the list. (16 Games Started? The info can be hard to find.) Don’t let anyone tell you he’s established himself as a quality starter just yet, though. JaMarcus Russell started \*\*29 \*\*games. I think Joey Harrington started a \*maximum \*of 29 college games. > > Really, while it’s entirely possible I’m missing someone, there just aren’t many 1st Round QBs at all with as few as 25 college starts, and the even the low-experience guys who are somewhat above that number _tend to be_ some of the biggest busts of recent years. i will ocncede that the 25 or so starts is thhe one red flag the pros seem to have with Luck, but do a Google search and mostdon’t think it is really that big of a concern, given what they have seen from him so far. I expect him to go first, maybe by the team in first, or by a team trading up to get him (49ers, Vikings, Cardinals) ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2010, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/159 "2010-11-24T19:37:44Z")
> [@Tom\_Scud](#): > > Rick Mirer had 37 starts. Brady Quinn had 46. Quinn wasn’t drafted in the top half of the first round, though, right? ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2010, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nfl-week-11/561131/160 "2010-11-24T19:39:26Z")
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